Lurker > Lopen

Like I'm not the one doing gymnastics here. I'm just saying these things

- Nintendo as a whole boosted in 05 (except Samus who went down)
- Samus boosted in 06 while most of the rest of the Nintendo stayed relatively similar
- Samus vs Frog in 05 using Samus's estimated 05 stat probably puts Frog way lower than he should be considering 04 Frog, 05 Chief, and 04 vs 05 Crono

To me it feels like the gymnastics are in saying Samus didn't boost. You need to have her boost at a different time than the rest of Nintendo and deboost guys by swaths for Samus/Snake 06 to make sense.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Also keep in mind Sonic 2k6 beat Crono in a direct match when he'd get like 55-45d by 2004 stats

I mean you can not adjust Samus up between 04 and 06 but then you need to do all sorts of other moves to make it line up, basically everyone else has to drop cause Snake lost to her and Snake beat other guys who beat other guys.

Like ultimately it comes down to whoever made the stats thought

Samus (2006c) VS Samus (2004c)

Samus has a strength of 45.85.
Samus has a strength of 42.36.

Samus wins with 53.81% of the vote!
A win of 8,807 with 115,700 total votes cast.

Cause it made sense with how Snake handled things, and Samus handling him. You could leave Samus at the same and drop the entire field I suppose but it doesn't seem terribly logical to me, considering Nintendo as a whole boosted in 2005. Not sure why Samus would be the lone outlier there.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

I dont really see why you think 2K6 Samus was significantly stronger than 2K4 Samus. Shes at basically the same strength compared to Sonic and Mega Man both years. MM is projected at 41% on her in 2K4, 41.89% in 2K6. Sonic 42.48% in 2K4, 42.21% in 2K6.

Only if Mega Man is unadjusted in 2k4. Do you think Mega Man didn't get SFFed by Link now? Cause 2k4 Mega Man adjusted is projected for 45.5-54.5 Samus
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I think Seph can still take that. Real interesting though. Zelda vs Sephiroth is the final I think
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

RIP Kingdom Hearts boost

Sticking with that being the theory
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I subscribed to the Fisher theory but yeah I like you only used it for Squall > Magus

My case it was just underestimating 2004 Knux though. I think if I did my homework a bit better I would've went for it.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Well I was right in expecting Kirby to be stronger with the anons but I'm surprised it wasn't by more.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Anyway I'm pretty sure Kirby is the Samus this year and Bowser is the Mario based on recent rounds and contests. Crono should mash Bowser but I feel like Kirby would've given him a run. Real shame.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

That's why I was trying to get Rikku fans to rally behind Rikku but they weren't interested. Gotta back Vincent cause he'll "never be here again" instead.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Yeah. I didn't think for sure that Mario had boosted until the rounds after Samus in 05. And honestly the more I think about it the more convinced Mario > Samus in 04 ends very similarly to 05. Probably not worse than 57-43 Mario. Mario boosting slightly more than Samus makes sense but they probably both boosted. And 2k4 Samus boosting pretty much at all is still stronger than 2k5 Mario on raw stats

It's kinda weird Samus was slightly dropped in 05 when everyone else in Nintendo went up, and Samus went up in 06 because... what was the explanation-- female bracket momentum? I don't know.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

It's important to not misconstrue supporting a gimmick or appreciating momentum with supporting a user.

Like I got charmed by year of XIII to an extent but it's not like me and Inviso are super buddy buddy or anything. If this were a user contest I would have went way harder on the likes of FFT characters but I think most of them are meh.

But I mean maybe I have a bit more support for Cid than normal because he's got a good crew? Yeah maybe. But Cid's a great underappreciated character too
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Also if you want my opinion on what the proper adjustment for 2k5 Samus was it would be around where 2k6 Samus is. That makes Frog line up a lot better (only a slight drop, which is fine some slight overperformance due to pic vs Solid **** makes sense) and doesn't give Samus a super significant boost in 2k6 when Mario and the rest of Nintendo got theirs in 2k5.

2k6 Samus is significantly stronger than 2k4 Samus so yeah, stands to reason 2k5 Samus would be too if you believe that.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

CelesMyUserName posted...

honestly smfffc has been a proxy user contest for a long long time now

I sort of agree but it's a heavily diluted one. A lot of people don't treat it that way.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

So I mean to humor that, that requires a bigger shift in 2005 between the parts than the idea that 2005 Mario gets like 65% on 2004 Samus. You realize that right?

What...?

Put it this way

Known values

Mario 2k5 = A bit over 43
Mario 2k4 = A bit over 37
Samus Raw in 2k5 = A bit over 34.
Samus Raw in 2k4 in a hypothetical match with Mario needed to get 60-40'd by 2k4 Mario = About 30

For 2k5 Mario to 65-35 2k4 Samus, Samus Raw vs Mario would need to be about 4 lower than it was in 2005

For 2k4 Samus to beat 2k4 Mario, Samus Raw vs Mario would need to be about 4 higher than it was in 2k5.

Basically what I'm saying is the assumption that 2k5 Mario 65-35s 2004 Samus is about the same number of stat fiddling as having Samus flip the script. Further I think because all the rest of Nintendo boosted in 2k5 and Samus outdid expectations vs Frog in 05, it makes more sense that Samus boosted in 2k5 than stayed static. Like Frog has always been a red flag in 2k5. Master Chief 2k5 60-40s 2k5 Frog, but Master Chief 2k5 is only 48-52 vs 2k4 Frog who = 2k4 Chief. Heavily implies Frog wasn't properly adjusted, which implies Samus wasn't. Especially since 2k4 Crono = 2k5 Crono.

Really the easy thing to is take 2k4 Mario value vs 2k5 Raw Samus which projects to Mario with 54-46 or so. Saying Samus wins in 04 is more of a leap than saying Mario 60-40s in 04, imo. You saying I lack credibility doesn't really change that.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Zelda
Magus
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Clearly the Bowsette boost was real but Peach got all of it
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I'd take Godot over Gordon tbh
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Squall > Zelda > Aeris voter checking in btw

We do exist
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Kinda thought Auron would recover and Geralt was just getting spice votes
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Mercs would break 95% of you.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

XX is a good stopping point
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Like 80% of people who say I take this thing too seriously take it more seriously than me.

I think Shad and Steiner are the only two I've seen say it that didn't cause me to scoff.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

That's right my finals power has only begun to swell. With mine, minion BetrayedTangy and your one vote I am the most powerful on earth
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Hey Vincent ain't my horse I ain't got no obligation to JUSTICE!!! Fang. I'd rather JUSTICE!!! her in the finals cause I think that would actually be competitive
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Cid is just an engineer wanting to do the best he can

A fightin goat engineer
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Cid did nothing wrong by Vincent

Don't spite Cid he's a good man
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Kaguya Houraisan (Touhou)
Kitana (Mortal Kombat)
Rozalin (Disgaea 2)
Starfire (DC Comics)
Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII)
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

GenesisSaga posted...

Trading h1 for Fang tomorrow

Will take this for Cid P
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I mean I don't believe Fang vs Vincent is a guaranteed win but Kefka vs Anyone Else is a guaranteed loss for Anyone Else
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I entirely blame Team Fang for that
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I mean really my vote is with the one with the sprint shoes. Calling the bear crazy fast was just overkill

#TheFixIsIn
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Kefka almost caught up
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Vincent
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Xena (Xena Warrior Princess)
Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones)
Yuyuko Saigyouji (Touhou)
Sarah Cornelia (Mobius Final Fantasy)
Kairi Sane (WWE)
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I'd be more interested in this contest than one for the best console
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Tokoyami posted...

Oh shit @KommunistKoala did you save Cid for our old trade? I wasnt sure if we were continuing it after you had the NR's to pay and I just had to pay a NR.

I took it
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Mr Lasastryke posted...

truffaut's law states that a critic should watch a movie three times, or the review should come with an apology

Imagine having so little value for your time that you would rewatch a movie you hated 2 more times

I would argue if you need to watch a movie 3 times to understand it that's an inherent flaw in the movie and it should be criticized as such. To me a review of a movie that's from a person who watched it once arguably has more value because realistically I'm determining whether I want to watch it once, not three times.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Master Chief to the semifinals in 2007, easily.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Next hour I meant, of course
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

KommunistKoala posted...

Cid

Okay trade is noted. No chance I don't get a save next round
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Cid P
(Will get Vincent next hour if you want Koala got no confirmation)
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I may be pretty put out about the contest now but I must see this done

Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x2

Aeris v Zelda
Call me crazy but I think Aeris holds a bit better. I do think a decent amount of Squall last round was Squall dropping, and I think the weakness of Aeris's opponents has been a bit overstated. She isn't going to win or anything, but a bit better than Squall? Yeah could happen. FFVII has looked ok this year. Remember the Kingdom Hearts boost? Now observe how weak Sora is? Maybe the Kingdom Hearts boost... disappeared... causing Aeris > Squall once again.

Zelda with 59.78%

Auron vs Geralt

Ironically there's a very slight chance Geralt is actually Auron's weakest opponent yet. I won't take Lucina > Geralt but we've seen stranger things and Geralt getting pushed to the mid 30s wouldn't entirely surprise me.

Auron with 59.78%
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

2K4 Mario does not get 59.79% in 2K4 Samus, it just doesnt happen. He was too weak. Not a good year for him.

You can't be certain of that though. You are making a lot of assumptions.

- Samus could not have boosted in 2005 as well
- SFF ability is inherently tied to contest strength

There is evidence to support both of these things are wrong.

creativename posted...

Thats not an irrelevant hypothetical - that is literally your claim. Just worded in a more pragmatic manner, to show how totally out there your claim is.

You're the one claiming Samus vs Mario in 2004 is "quite fuzzy." What does that mean exactly? I said they probably go like 54-46 or 55-45 and you didn't accept it, so to me that implies "quite fuzzy" is code for "I don't want to admit I was wrong about the matchup and am going to claim Samus squeaks out a win in 2004 and the Mario boost is why it wasn't competitive in 2005"

So I mean to humor that, that requires a bigger shift in 2005 between the parts than the idea that 2005 Mario gets like 65% on 2004 Samus. You realize that right?
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Also I would say this very match is evidence that strength is not necessarily directly related to ability to SFF.

In 2k5 most would agree Bowser was likely stronger than Bowser is now, based on the numbers he was putting up on dudes in 2k5 being monster vs somewhat pedestrian this year

Similarly, most would agree Kirby this year looks stronger than 2k5 Kirby, based on the fact that he'd been looking stronger in the past few contests he's had and the blowouts he's dished out this time. Yet Bowser is winning by more this time around? Why?

So saying Mario's strength going up means he can SFF better? Not necessarily. Honestly if I had to guess I would guess that ability to SFF is mostly driven by vote totals. We seem to get more like minded/homogeneous results the lower vote totals get. 2k4 had slightly lower vote totals than 2k5 so SFF would be slightly stronger there? But that's just a guess. I really couldn't tell you.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

2K5 Mario vs 2K4 Samus seems like, an irrelevant hypothetical to me. If you think Mario and Samus both boosted in 2K5 due to a Nintendo boost you can't have 2K4 Samus exist in the same space as 2K5 Mario.

At that point you're basically just asking if I think a character that got 60%'d by another character can be 66%'d by them the next year. Which I mean, sure, why not? Mario flipping the table on Crono was a pretty comparable shift to what you're suggesting there.

I'm not saying it's a given Samus boosted as much as Mario in 2k5, but the idea that she boosted a little isn't entirely out of line either, and if Samus 2k5 was a monster we'd never know because she never had matches that could let her flex her muscle (aside from the one with Frog where you could argue there's evidence she did but it was discarded to make the numbers fit better)

Anyway I agree with you that Mario vs Samus 2k4 is probably a bit closer than 2k5. But I think when you're at the point where you're trying to argue that a 60-40 Mario turned into a victory for Samus over the course of a year as something that's plausible enough to be called even a toss up that you've probably gone a bit too far down the rabbit hole of speculation. And I would say 2k4 being 60-40 just like 2k5 was is significantly more likely than Samus winning if I had to choose one. As I said I think Mario > Samus 55-45 makes the most sense to me internally but you just really can't know for sure.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Yeah I'm getting more tempted than I should be to get Aeris's, particularly considering I don't like Aeris that much (though honestly, she may be like top 5 for healers because god I hate FF's healers on the whole)

Especially since it seems like we're not going to get the FFIX banners before this ultra draw rotates out meaning I don't necessarily want to grab Vivi's

Don't really want Elarra's. Kinda got my eyes set on Vanille's on the Tidus AASB banner which is similar
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

LeonhartFour posted...

also Cloud still beat her pretty effortlessly in 2007

I'm not sure I put much stock in her 2007 meetings with Cloud. We've seen Mega Man basically act like a Nintendo character many times before. Heck it's generally accepted Samus SFFed Mega Man in that match, which means Samus was LFFed. And of course the next round Link just blew her back by SFFing her.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I'm not judging any posts made here for harshness. Being upset is fine. I'm just saying some people are treating the guy like he's a troll account and I think he's not. That's it. Show your righteous indignation but do it for the right reason, that's all I'm saying. If you think he's an idiot and just like kicking idiots that's completely fine too.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I mean Samus boosting in 2K5 is functionally worthless when you think about it, because she gets SFFed by almost everyone above her anyway.

It just means

- She'd come closer to Cloud, maybe beat Sephiroth
- She'd beat people she'd normally beat more easily

If you give her the same boost Mario got she gets to like 45 or 46% on Link-- which is as said a mostly irrelevant stat because Link just SFFs her anyway, Mario just SFFs her anyway, and she beats everyone else. Maybe Samus vs Cloud is a juicy matchup in 2005. I'm not completely certain that's not true.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Yeah not trying to say people are wrong to be upset. Just saying I feel bad for him and perhaps treating him like an actual person who is completely oblivious to what he speaks is the more suitable way to proceed than treating him as a troll account who must leave asap because I'm thinking he's probably not.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!