Lurker > Lopen

MAX on Parlay of Aeris and Auron
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Edit in the contest discussion flair please
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Dels posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

I've gotten bullied in the past month on here too, that's all. I know you guys don't really like me.

SuperNiceDog posted...

Maybe I'm the one that's depressed...

Is that what this topic is really about?

Demand an apology if you feel you deserve one. Stand up for yourself if you want to.

If you want to talk about your own issues, you can do that. People won't be mad as long as you're respectful.

I'd believe it. Kinda feel bad for SuperNiceDog because I don't think he actually is a troll account.
Wayyyy too much effort and enthusiasm for that.

Maybe I'm wrong though.

Not trying to excuse this topic but I do think it was a social blunder (like most stuff SND posts) more than something meant to be done maliciously.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

How does metroid shot web
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

I really dont buy that Samus was stronger in 2K5 whatsoever.

One other thing to consider is Chief getting 39% on Crono vs Samus's 70% on Frog. According to 2004 stats Chief almost perfectly lines up with his expected % from 2004 but Frog underperforms by 8% on what you'd expect on the 2004 stats, and that 2005 Master Chief is projected to 60-40 2005 Frog. Chief probably boosted a little between 04 and 05, and Frog was a bit overrated in 04, surely, but that's a bit much.

To me that Frog match has always been suspicious and I suspect part of it may be that there was a refusal to accept the idea that Samus may have boosted cause she lost to Mario
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Kirby has been stalling pretty hard for an hour

I want to believe dammit
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Jeff Hardy
Austin Aries
Kevin Owens

The match between The Dancing Buzzards and J&J Security breaksdown when James Storm interferes. What former Buzzards Rival will be the equalizer for them? Finn Balor. I think that happened before anyway.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I think there's a legitimate argument to be made that Aeris's is better straight up but multipurpose utility is not to be denied either.

I'm not taking Elarra's that's for sure. But I'm probably not taking a healing one win general. If I did though I'd take Aeris's first
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

IIRC it was a Mario crew boost. Did other Nintendo characters boost...?

Kirby vs Tidus was thought to be somewhat debatable and Kirby obliterated him. I'd argue Ganondorf and Zelda also outdid expectations
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Also keep in mind it's not a total given that Samus wasn't also stronger in 2005 than 2004. She kinda ruined Frog. It's possible that had she not run into Mario she'd still look indirectly stronger even in 2005. I kinda assume Mario gained more relative to her, but it is by no means a given.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

I believe that his increase in strength not only allowed him to expand the number of fans who indirectly prefer Samus but vote Mario 1v1, but also the rate of fans susceptible to prefer Mario but over-prefer Mario 1v1.

That's not a given though. Especially since a lot of Mario's boost in 2005 could be attributed to Nintendo as a whole getting stronger more than Mario specifically.

It's possible though. I'm just saying I wouldn't assume it.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Kinda the better comparison than Mario vs Samus for arguing against KIRBY VS BOWSER WAS SET IN STONE was Mario vs Crono 2003 vs 2004, which went from a 50-50 to a 53.5-46.5 with a mere ONE year gap with no real tangible reason for CT to boost or SMB to drop

That's a bigger gap difference than Kirby vs Bowser had in 2005 with 1/13 the time between contests to muddle with things
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

He got 59.79% in 2K5 and he clearly boosted more than 3 points. No way in hell he gets 57% in 2K4.

Oh sure I actually agree with that. I think it probably would've been 55-45 or 54-46 in 2k4 now having fully absorbed his boost. I'm just saying I called for Mario over Samus in a stomp using their 2k4 values and that 2k5 prediction wasn't influenced that much by in contest results-- don't really think Mario seemed conclusively better vs his 2k4 self till the rounds after Samus
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I think people have turned on Kingdom Hearts a bit to the point where the hype isn't helping enough

We've been jerked around with KH3 for like 10 years now. Some people have probably just tuned out at this point
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

SNES X is still SRS Mega Man so I'd still vote Mega Man over SNES X because it's just a more boring version of the more light hearted OG Mega Man for me. I'll take a poorly characterized light hearted character,over a poorly characterized serious one every time. Case in point Mario vs Crono.

X4 and on are when the character starts getting legit bad though yeah. X6 and X7 IIRC is when it actually started grating to a point where I started to dislike the character slightly.

I mean I don't exactly hate X even considering all the games but he's definitely one of my least favorite Mega Man characters.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

If Kirby were to by some miracle squeak by Bowser here I'd call for a Kirby > Crono upset even taking in mind he limped past Bowser

Don't see Bowser getting within 10% of him though
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

creativename posted...

So if theyd matched up in 2K4, you wouldve picked Mario?

But your pred wouldve been much closer right? Seeing team Mario beast it up in 2K5 mustve influenced you?

I don't think I would've gone lower then 57-43 Mario at any point. Keep in mind I called for Mario > Samus on the assumption that the stats in 2004 were accurate summaries of their indirect strength.

The idea was that Samus had a more broad appeal due to being more badass and so would do better against the people who were not part of the core Nintendo fanbase but the majority of the core fans would disproportionately cede to Mario cause HIERARCHY.

I even made a crappy mspaint pie chart and Venn diagram and shit to explain what I meant. I'm sure Leonhart at least remembers this. Surely!
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Lol

No u

Am I doing this right
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Oh right Lost Levels. Would put that below 64
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

UltimaterializerX posted...

You mean the 51.59% prediction post where I'm blatantly quoting SephG's pick as a joke?

I once picked Magus to beat Crono in the analysis crew. Means jack shit.

Means your predictive skills are a bad joke which is what I said.

You never really explained Mario vs Samus or ever called for a beatdown so you're not the real expert on it. That's me. I also stopped bringing that match up like 12 years ago.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

ExThaNemesis posted...

No one actually likes Kirby beyond "well he's cute."

Screw you man
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

UltimaterializerX posted...

Where does it say I called for 53%? I'm no where on that list.

Analysis Crew archives.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=57

Also let it be known I'm actually the one who understood the Mario/Samus dynamic best despite Ulti's attempts to claim it as his

Ulti was calling for Mario with like 53%

But yeah Bowser/Kirby we didn't really have reason for that.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I mean it's a 60-40. Even if Samus is stronger in 2004 she's not overturning that.

If Mario only beat Samus 52-48 in 2005 though? Yeah why not argue Samus > Mario in 2004. A match within 5% being called set in stone is major moron status on pretty much any matchup because we've seen those deficits jump around time and time again for no reason at all
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

charmander6000 posted...

Give it a rest Lopen, Ulti literally thinks Mario would have defeated Samus in 2004.

I do too though? But a 52-48 clearly isn't a Mario vs Samus situation
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

UltimaterializerX posted...

Nope. Currently 1.67%, which is not enough to overturn Bowser winning with 52.12%.

Don't be a twit you know what I meant (also if you responded when I made the post it was actually right then)
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I think the argument for HIERARCHY before the fact was weak considering we saw a 48-52 match between the two before. That doesn't smell of a match that's SFF dominated. That's not Mario 60-40ing Samus.

I mean, maybe it exists, but people didn't present that before the contest. Just beat their chest and grunted afterwards.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

UltimaterializerX posted...

No, it really wasn't. They've had a match before and neither character has had a reason to move since 2005.

They literally moved by enough for Kirby to win the match if the movement is in the other direction.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I think there were theories that could work to pick Bowser > Kirby I just don't feel people really presented them

To me what's feeling most likely is there's a hierarchy in the Nintendo food chain that the diehard regulars to this Nintendo dominated site adhere to and as such Kirby is going to get flayed in SFF matches when vote totals tank like this year.

But no one argued that. That's just hindsight trying to make sense of something that doesn't really. I feel like most internally consistent arguments presented would have Charizard or Kirby winning here. Strangely Charizard was a pretty big underdog vs Kirby OR Bowser for reasons I don't entirely understand but whatever.

Clearly all that Charizard is a fraud rhetoric got to people. I mean it got to me too but you know me I love betting against Pokemon
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

2 >= 3 > World > 1 > 64 > Yoshi's Island >> Sunshine

Haven't play enough Galaxy to feel comfortable rating and haven't played any Odyssey
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Almost all those results look plausible to me. Pika vs Ganondorf barnburner in the making???
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I still don't buy it is. I'm not believing Chun vs Ganondorf until I see Chun-Li deliver against something on the paygrade of where that would STATS her at
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Portrait and Order are best pretty clearly over the others for me

Voted Portrait mostly on strength of the extra character modes adding some replay
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

lordjers posted...

Amumu is great but been placed dead last is hilariously on character.

Mostly why I said it yeah.

Although I do like Amumu from a design perspective too.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I guess if Seph wins with like 50.5% or the Luigi Tifa loser is completely blown apart. Like if Ryu wins or something I'd be more inclined to call him a star

Yeah I realize that may not make total sense deal with it
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I'm not sure who could take Kirby's well deserved turd

...

;_;
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Yeah overall I probably prefer it to DMC1 and it's better than most action games purely talking gameplay

Agree it's not touching DMC3 or 4 though, even talking purely gameplay. I'd put NG1 and NG2 above it there too. Might legit be my 5th favorite action game gameplay though. I'll take it over your God of Wars and such all day
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I agree DmC is pretty underrated. If it was its own stand alone property that was just a DMC knockoff rather than trying to replace the DMC classics with garbage I'd probably even like it more than just a little. The gameplay is good and I kinda like what it was trying to do with the story if the dialogue and acting wasn't so cringey
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Excluding obvious rally beneficiaries in general yeah, of which Monika would be the only one so far
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Poor Amumu. I feel sad for him being last
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I have this weird feeling that Kirby vs Bowser is going to be the biggest differential between registered result and non-registered result we've seen yet
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Eh changed my mind

1/11 Eiko Burst

Argh
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I think I may hold off till the dream selects just in case I random into one of the grand prizes of this set (Aeris, Larsa, Relm)

Will probably draw from it though. Not the other two.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Oh man just imagine Dante with the Netflix boost

He'll be unstoppable
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

UltimaterializerX posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Bowser is going to end up getting like, 3% more on Kirby than he did in 2005.

I really don't understand Nintendo.

Its such a shocking result!

I'm curious if 2005 is set in stone why 2010 wasn't. Isn't Bowser > Charizard SUCH A SHOCKING RESULT?
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Fun fact if Kirby moves the % in the other direction the same amount Bowser did in the positive direction on the so called "no reason to doubt this match result changing ever" match he wins.

Fun fact 2 the 2005 match was used as a deciding factor while people were lecturing on using 5 year old stats as being too dated

Fun fact 3 if you say no match result changes ever Bowser lost to Charizard in 2010 by more than Kirby lost to Bowser

I mean if Bowser wins he wins, good job, but none of the logic in picking him really strikes as consistent or valid to me.
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

UltimaterializerX posted...

Oh look, Bowser has the same exact lead on Kirby that he had in 2005. As I said, Kirby has had zero reason to close this gap.

It's actually pushing double
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Alucard
Phoenix
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Never underestimate the "Lopen can never be happy" factor I guess. The contest will find a way, even when the one I'm rooting for is actually Nintendo
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Zylothewolf posted...

1: We have already seen this match.

3: It's Nintendo VS Nintendo, stats will just confuse you. See Mario VS Samus in 2005.

These two points contradict themselves considering a stronger looking Bowser put up a lower percentage than the current one against a weaker looking Kirby. If anything the 2005 match suggests stats don't confuse us on this particular match
---

No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!