Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

(+) Yeah! (+)

nah there's still time for other characters to do worse
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I'm not sure who could take Kirby's well deserved turd

...

;_;
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maybe Auron

or Ryu

or Luigi/Tifa loser

or even Seph

or maybe even Squall again if Aerith outdoes his percentage
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I guess if Seph wins with like 50.5% or the Luigi Tifa loser is completely blown apart. Like if Ryu wins or something I'd be more inclined to call him a star

Yeah I realize that may not make total sense deal with it
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Why is Kirby the turd? If anything, it should be Red/Sora/Big Boss (again, for the second round in a row).
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LeonhartFour posted...

transience posted...

first we rally a final fantasy 7 character and now we pour one out for a poor nintendo character

can't wait to see where we go next

we lament the total weakness of western characters when Auron bodies Geralt

Let's not, and instead celebrate how a character that didn't originate from a video game made it to Round 4 and use this to convince Allen to let characters like Batman into CBXI.

(Batman intentionally used as an example because he's already got Games Contest wins under his belt, something that as far as I can remember no other "non-video game character" has done in a non-crossover (e.g. Marvel vs. Capcom, Kingdom Hearts). Though I wouldn't be surprised if Disney characters did well in an open contest, and not just because of KH; Disney has had some damn good licensed games.)
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well if Seph completely destroys Ryu you could give him the turd too

squexa posted...

Why is Kirby the turd? If anything, it should be Red/Sora/Big Boss (again, for the second round in a row).

eh at this point it shouldn't be a surprise that Alucard is winning easily
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Division 1

Ganondorf 50.00%
Vivi 48.04%
Dante 43.60%
Donkey Kong 43.26%
Chun-Li 41.09%
Leon Kennedy 38.35%
Tidus 37.26%
Spyro the Dragon 36.02%
Lightning 29.98%
Cuphead 24.77%
Yu Narukami 24.13%
Dragonborn 24.02%
Aya Brea 23.59%
Neku Sakuraba 21.40%
Victor Sullivan 19.08%
Chloe Price 15.48%

Division 2

Pikachu 50.00%
Yoshi 45.20%
Zero 43.44%
Knuckles the Echidna 38.10%
Kratos 36.59%
Wario 34.53%
Scorpion 33.59%
Zidane Tribal 32.92%
Master Hand 26.96%
Velvet Crowe 26.55%
Monika 24.47%
Shantae 23.26%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 22.89%
Primrose 22.43%
James Sunderland 20.69%
John Marston 19.63%
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LeonhartFour posted...

maybe Auron

or Ryu

or Luigi/Tifa loser

or even Seph

or maybe even Squall again if Aerith outdoes his percentage

You can't call someone who's already been eliminated the turd of the round!
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squexa posted...

Why is Kirby the turd? If anything, it should be Red/Sora/Big Boss (again, for the second round in a row).

I mean, Kirby is someone who had every reason to win and looked great every round, and dropped the ball. There was already a lot of thought on that trio sucking, so it's not really a craptastic performance here.
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those numbers look good. Alucard is doing exactly as you'd expect based on performances too. Kirby's division, though
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what a horrible night for a crew curse
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Turd of the Round isn't Kirby.

Turd of the Round is the crew for getting more hyped over beating up a character from a 17 year old Nintendo RPG and a pseudo-Nintendo visual novel character than for almost matching Tifa on a significantly stronger Pokemon.
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when did Bowser match Tifa on Pikachu
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7350

Ganondorf pretty much does as expected against Vivi, which only continues to highlight how strange that Chun-Li match was at the time. Like stated before, the favorites to get to the divisional finals were always Ganon and Vivi, and when Round 3 went as expected for both of them, it became clear that Ganon was just naturally stronger and would win in the direct match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7351

Once again, previous matches foretold this result. Pikachu looked stronger throughout the contest, and sure enough, had no problem with Zero. He did better on Zero than Yoshi as well. Pikachu's not looking like a world-beater, but definitely seems to be one of the elite characters now.

Crew Predictions: 101/114

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 99
transience: 97
Kleenex: 93
Leonhart: 92
Guest: 88

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar and Kleenex get the point for Ganondorf, and Moltar and transience get the point for Pikachu.

Kleenex: 28
Guest: 26 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII)
transience: 26
Moltar: 21
Leonhart: 17
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I hoped Vivi could pull of an upset but it wasn't to be. Still he put up a fight in the beginning and looked respectable at the end, proud of his performance this year.

guest screwed by double full points

crossing topics for reasons

I'm not sure I put much stock in her 2007 meetings with Cloud. We've seen Mega Man basically act like a Nintendo character many times before. Heck it's generally accepted Samus SFFed Mega Man in that match, which means Samus was LFFed.

it was generally accepted that Mario and Link SFF'd/LFF'd Mega Man X too

I don't know that I totally buy it because Mega Man got really close to Samus the round before with Yoshi in the match and then finished way back of her the next round with no other Nintendo characters around
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Samus and Yoshi overlap more than Mega Man and Yoshi
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charmander6000 posted...

Samus and Yoshi overlap more than Mega Man and Yoshi

I would believe that. Of course, I'd believe it more if it was '08, since I'm of the opinion that "Mega Man" was a proxy for all Mega Men until X actually made it in as a separate character. Super Metroid is still generally considered Samus's most defining game, so she's probably considered an "SNES character", same as Yoshi. Starting in 2008, "Mega Man" no longer has his hand in the SNES cookie jar.
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Round 4: Division Finals Zelda vs. Aerith Gainsborough

Moltars Analysis

Zelda
Round 1 - 75.33% vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze
Round 2 - 70.70% vs. The Boss
Round 3 - 63.32% vs. Squall Leonhart

Aerith
Round 1 - 57.43% vs. Waluigi
Round 2 - 59.99% vs. Captain Toad
Round 3 - 52.70% vs. Fox McCloud

Is...is Aerith stronger than Squall now? We might find out in this match. Aerith has been knocking down Nintendo all contest so far, but now she stands against the beast that is Zelda.

Its highly unlikely that Zelda is around Fox in strength, and yet can beat Squall with over 63%. Zelda took this match already back in 2006 with 57%. That sounded about right before this contest, but since then, Zelda has been on a tear. Sure, all her opponents have good reason to decline in strength, but Zelda has good reason to be a lot stronger with BotW in her pocket as well.

Moltars Bracket: Zelda

Moltars Prediction: Zelda 65%

transiences Analysis

This is a dozen year old rematch of a match that happened on the day FF12 released. Aerith still got crushed.

Zelda's going to win here and nobody disputes that. The question is, is she going for 65% based on her performance against Squall, or is it something more reasonable? Aerith struggled to beat Waluigi, let alone Fox, so obviously she's not going to hang with an upper elite in Zelda who just demolished a superior character who has bodied her in the past. But... I don't know. Squall looked *off* this year, from the first minute of facing Hat Kid.

Something I've noticed over the years -- some years, characters (or games) just "have it" and sometimes they're just holding on to their past legacies and coming up with possible excuses as they disappoint round after round until they get embarrassed. Like, take Crono back in 07 or 08, whatever year that was when he lost to Vincent. Crono just looked gimped those years, dying off after 3-4 hours, like he was just too old to matter to anyone but the most diehard contest followers. Then take Chrono Trigger in 2015, where it just flew out of the gate and demolished anything and everything in its path. Sometimes you have it. Squall did not.

So what about Aerith? I actually have been kinda impressed by her, mostly due to my rock bottom expectations. She managed to beat Fox. With how Squall looked, I'm honestly not sure if he could have done that. Sora might not have been able to either. It's totally possible here that Zelda doubles her on her way to blasting away Solid Snake, but I think I want to give Aerith some credit and say that maybe she can hold it to 60%. Sucks to be you, Squall.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 60.50%
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Leonharts Analysis

This is the most open and shut match of the round. Zelda has been torching everything in her path, while Aerith has been allowing Waluigi and Captain Toad to put up 40%+ on her. The only potentially interesting thing worth keeping an eye on here is if Aerith can outdo Squalls percentage and add one final indignity to his scorched remains. Im going to say she doesnt, but I am fully ready to be disappointed!

Leonharts Vote: Aerith Gainsborough

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 65.75%

Kleenexs Analysis

Theres only one thing interesting about this match, and thats to see if Zelda outdoes her percentage on Squall here. Im still shook from that last round. By all conventional wisdom, Aeris should absolutely be weaker than Squall. For some strange reason, I feel like she might hold up a little bit better. I dont have a convincing argument for it, its more of a gut thing. This could also turn into a 70% beatdown, though. Maybe she can put the fear in Snake if that happens.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zelda with 62%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

This a match we've seen before in 2006, where Zelda fell just short of 57% on Aerith. Since then, Aerith has possibly gotten weaker (but only very slightly at best), and Zelda has looked like a Noble Nine breaker this contest. Despite Squall looking bad against Zelda, I would still take him over Aerith in a direct match. So this already means Zelda should put up a higher percentage compared to last round.

Zelda got close to 71% on The Boss and I would probably take Fox over The Boss, so I'm expecting something like 70% on Fox (before SFF). Then Fox kept Aerith under 53% on him, so this means Zelda could get close to 70% on Aerith. I'm thinking this match falls somewhere in the 66% to 70% range, unless maybe Aerith could possibly channel Tifa's ability to overperform on female characters, even in a losing effort.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Zelda

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Zelda - 67.35%

Crew Consensus: zelda she come to town
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Not even Hentai rallying works here, since we have 2 women. Also the crew picked Zelda with so low? If she doesn't scores at least 70% I will be surprised.
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Safer_777 posted...

Not even Hentai rallying works here, since we have 2 women. Also the crew picked Zelda with so low? If she doesn't scores at least 70% I will be surprised.

Zelda putting up 70% implies that The Boss is on Aerith and Fox's level.

The sad truth is probably that Squall is not much stronger than Aerith.
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Yeah, 70% potentially makes her the favourite against Solid Snake next round.
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Round 4: Division Finals Geralt vs. Auron

Moltars Analysis

Geralt
Round 1 - 56.03% vs. Rosalina
Round 2 - 52.19% vs. Simon Belmont
Round 3 - 50.88% vs. Bayonetta

Auron
Round 1 - 65.44% vs. Lucina
Round 2 - 55.80% vs. Vincent Valentine
Round 3 - 56.71% vs. Sub-Zero

This match looks like a lock for Auron, but its hard to say where Geralt will end up. Is he up there with Vincent and Subby? Maybe, but then that puts a lot of characters in Geralt's 8-pack close behind.

The top half of the division looks like one big midcard hell, and going off how the contest has been so far, I can buy it. Youve got a lot of Smash/Nintendo and icons in there, two groups that have boosted in strength. Still, Auron (along with a good portion of his path) seem to be above that group, so Im going to predict as such.

Moltars Bracket: Auron

Moltars Prediction: Auron 58%

transiences Analysis

Doesn't it feel like Geralt will start out losing only to win this 51-49, the most boring 51-49 ever? I feel like I've seen that 3 rounds in a row. Auron's on another level from those bums, but this is also a dude who couldn't break 57% on Sub. Does Sub beat Geralt? I'd like to say yes? I mean, nobody in the top half of division 6 was really any good. That was a master class of bracketmaking.

Auron's performances have been passable and you can make excuses for them, but when you start seeing the Squalls and Yunas of the world, it's hard to be too optimistic on him. Yeah, he should beat Geralt, and he might even go big if that entire eightpack is just a bunch of frauds. But I just don't have a good feeling here. I'll go low since every damn r4 match is destined to be in the low to mid 50s.

transience's prediction: Auron with 53.54%

Leonharts Analysis

The paths these two took to get here couldnt be more different. Geralt had to fight and claw for every victory, overcoming his slow starts with a strong day vote to eventually overpower three different Smash characters. Auron has been able to lazily idle along, and it almost feels like he hasnt been trying that hard because hes been underperforming relative to expectations nearly every match. I think that doesnt speak well for Aurons chances in the next bracket, but I dont think hell drop the ball here, at least.

Leonharts Vote: Auron

Leonharts Prediction: Auron with 57.48%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Geralt has been one of more fun characters to watch this contest. He got the benefit of having a weaker 8-pack to get through, but his matches were exciting to watch, and its awesome to see a recent(ish) Western character do well(ish) for a change. I dont think he has a hope of pulling off another miracle here, Auron is a number of steps up from Geralts previous competition, and Auron has looked pretty good himself through three rounds. Maybe Geralt can put up a 2B-like performance and still look shockingly good against a near-elite, but he aint winning.

Kleenexs Prediction: Auron with 58%

Guests Analysis - Ranticoot

Geralt has been one of my favorite parts of this contest. All his matches have been great, he's presented good strength despite being of a character type that's otherwise been flopping horribly this contest (The Witcher books have existed since the 90s, maybe that's his secret), he's the only character who had RallyFEAR who has been able to do things without resorting to that, and he actually made it here in what might've been the hardest eight pack to predict pre-contest. I think he and 2B validated their 1 seeds to some degree, and because of that they're two of the most uplifting stories of this contest.

Auron hasn't looked too terrible even with all of Square's struggles. Tifa and Vivi are basically the only ones that look completely good, and I think he's put up among the best shows off the ones after them simply by not having fallen off a cliff. I'd probably take him over Squall right now. He has underperformed but he hasn't really done so to the point I think any match he's in is more or less debateable than before. He really shouldn't lose here, and he definitely has had one of the least exciting paths of our elite characters this contest.

I'm 70% sure Sub-Zero would beat Geralt, and I definitely wouldn't take anyone Geralt beat over Sub-Zero, so Subby's % is about his ceiling here; matching Sub-Zero's percentage would be great for Geralt. Going even higher would be even better, but a win is more or less out of the question unless he like, gets a big boost from the momentum of being a good performing, not typically GameFAQs-like character, and I'm not sure if that'll work since we finally have examples of Square guys pulling out their stuff when it matters the most.

Ranticoot's prediction - Auron with 58.62%

Crew Consensus: A Square rep finally wins a division.
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Auron's gonna get like 60%+ here and Alucard the other half of the division
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charmander6000 posted...

Yeah, 70% potentially makes her the favourite against Solid Snake next round.

I see no reason to believe Aerith/Fox have declined (since the other FF females have looked pretty good) so 70+% would have a lot of hilarious implications. Like Squall, the Boss and Ezio being legit the whole time all along. It would also mean Ryu's a monster and probably taking down Mario.
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moltar please stop stealing my predictions
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i have the high pick this time huh

more than anything i'm hoping geralt at least breaks 40%
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Fox's last game was Star Fox Zero.

I'm kind of kicking myself for not sticking to Bayonetta winning two matches because I figured that with Smash plus her games getting more re-releases she would become strong enough to take care of business. Though in actuality I had Bayonetta > Ryu Hayabusa in Round 3 as well and then ended up switching to Geralt > Riku, which I suppose ended up working out. I switched away from Bayonetta because of how badly her game did in 2015.
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charmander6000 posted...

Yeah, 70% potentially makes her the favourite against Solid Snake next round.

Exactly
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The Mana Sword posted...

moltar please stop stealing my predictions

It's pretty easy to avoid that. Just avoid picking whole numbers for your predictions.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Auron's gonna get like 60%+ here and Alucard the other half of the division

at first, totally. might even be 65+. but then the regular voters come on in.

Alucard really isnt doing any more than anyone expected today
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I may be pretty put out about the contest now but I must see this done

Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x2

Aeris v Zelda
Call me crazy but I think Aeris holds a bit better. I do think a decent amount of Squall last round was Squall dropping, and I think the weakness of Aeris's opponents has been a bit overstated. She isn't going to win or anything, but a bit better than Squall? Yeah could happen. FFVII has looked ok this year. Remember the Kingdom Hearts boost? Now observe how weak Sora is? Maybe the Kingdom Hearts boost... disappeared... causing Aeris > Squall once again.

Zelda with 59.78%

Auron vs Geralt

Ironically there's a very slight chance Geralt is actually Auron's weakest opponent yet. I won't take Lucina > Geralt but we've seen stranger things and Geralt getting pushed to the mid 30s wouldn't entirely surprise me.

Auron with 59.78%
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Ah, the good old days when Aeris was stronger than Squall back in 2002.
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The Mana Sword posted...

moltar please stop stealing my predictions

theyre just so good tho
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Cute smash zelda gonna sff the waifu factor out of aerith
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charmander6000 posted...

Samus and Yoshi overlap more than Mega Man and Yoshi

eh this was the type of argument people made to excuse why MMX got so close to Mario with Zelda in the match but couldn't beat him and then didn't come anywhere close again after Zelda was gone
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Ready Luigi? Send that inflated bimbo back to obscurity!!!

Inglebird posted...

Ready Luigi? Send that inflated bimbo back to obscurity!!!

this is the hardest I've laughed all day, thank you for that. Sincerely.
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LeonhartFour posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Samus and Yoshi overlap more than Mega Man and Yoshi

eh this was the type of argument people made to excuse why MMX got so close to Mario with Zelda in the match but couldn't beat him and then didn't come anywhere close again after Zelda was gone

No that was because Zelda LFF Mario more than Luigi
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charmander6000 posted...

No that was because Zelda LFF Mario more than Luigi

or because MMX wasn't as strong as people thought
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anyway Aerith's and Auron's pictures are mirrored

that's throwing me off
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oh god zelda
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wow, nice job zelda

I want to see the n9 guys because wow
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cant even hit 70% zelda sux
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good news leon squall didn't just fall off the face of the earth

bad news leon squall/zelda wasn't squall falling off the face of the earth
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snake finna get bodied
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