Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

htaeD posted...

Lea is just lower on my hitlist because I dont think her actions follow a scum plan while FDs could.

This is asinine.

If I'm scum I *want* the normal day 1 bullshit to happen because I would want at least 1 or 2 town powers to get forced to claim at the end of the day like we almost always see happen.

Scum just lost an important role and should WANT as much information to get thrown out as possible.

That's why Ulti's "we should mass" is the worst suggestion thrown out today.

htaeD posted...

Isnt his reasoning the same as Ulti's?

ulti's "reason" is because he "knows" that I'm not a "coward".

When in fact I am famously cowardly and prone to playing it safe >_>

htaeD posted...

I have noticed an abscence of them so far.

Spreadsheets track claimed flavors/roles/actions.

we have 1 dead person.
And 1 (new) person who claimed entirely unprompted.

Even if I wasn't busy, I wouldn't be tripping over myself to put the info together. I think we're all capable of remembering the only two things that would need to be tracked.

MZero posted...

I mean using math and stuff to decide the "optimal" and safe course of action instead of actually scumhunting

Have you seen my spreadsheets?

Or been in a game where I focus way too much on flavor? I wanted to lynch Wallz, town bodyguard because his flavor was Mr. T and he wasn't a neighbor with the other 3 Misters.

Lopen posted...

I said FD was encouraging a passive date scheme to allow scum to run over town with ease

FD insisted post-game he was doing what he would have done as town and just happened to be scum

Did Mzero tune out of this discussion or is her purposely misrepresenting the situation to get votes on FD

I think you're also not giving enough weight to Ulti and Isquen blowing my plan the up in a way that ensured they would be on the chopping block the next day. My plan, as stated, would likely have killed Sultan, but they made sure that didn't happen.

But essentially yes, I think the method I presented would have held up under normal circumstances.

Just like NL holds up today. Why force town power to claim or take an approach that may force town power to claim? It's unnecessarily risk-taking for a minimal upside.

htaeD posted...

While I appreciate that Mzero has a drive now, I do want to know what eveven was the suboptimal FD strategy he is referring too.
I am asking as the guy who died night1 and wants to check that game again

In valentines we decided on 4 players among who the final 2 scum "must" have been. I presented a mathematical process to pair people up and force those players either together or separately on alternating days in a way that would allow us to test all 4 of them.

Now the pool of players was incorrect by design, but HAD it been correct I stand by the strategy I was presenting and would have pursued a similar approach as town. Essentially I was crafting a plan in which Sultan and I would have had like a 25% chance of winning outright or a 75% chance of me sacrificing Sultan and trying to win out by myself. But that 25% chance of winning outright got increased to nearly 100% by Ulti and Isquen blowing my plan up in a foolish way. If my actual plan had been adhered to then Sultan was likely going down, but instead they gave me the justification I needed to ensure they died the following day.

Corrik7 posted...

Not a do nothing the entire day and don't try to find scum.

Voting for No Lynch =/= Not Looking for scum.

I'm still looking for scum, and I have some thoughts, but I'm not willing to VOTE on those thoughts today. I'm just an uninformed member of town, my thoughts are often wrong. The strategy to mitigate risk is more important than my thoughts on who might be scum.

Lopen posted...

He is scum

he absolutely could be. But if he can only day kill and has to do it many times that's going to be harder and harder to justify the longer the game goes.

He could be SK who has the option to kill either day or night? Maybe with a stipulation that at least one of the kills has to be during the day?

He could also be overzealous town dayvig, but then he would just be laying low and "see you day 2"ing. It's definitely a different kind of vibe from corrik.

Corrik7 posted...

won't try to lynch scum.

Who says?

I will absolutely try to lynch people starting day 2.

But if you're lynching me to try to find scum yourself then you are doing it wrong.

I'm not scum, I'm town.

And NL does NOT benefit scum on a day like today.

Scum *wants* pressure flying left and right.

Scum *wants* to force claims and out town powers so they know who to kill at night.

.

NL removes todays upside of a scum lynch, sure. But that probably wasn't going to happen anyways.

But it also removes the downside of screwing over MULTIPLE town power roles on day 1 when we absolutely don't need to. It's a play to mitigate risk and be more likely to maintain the advantage we have from the godfather being killed so quickly.

I am absolutely a play it safe coward. Ulti doesn't know the first thing about me.

But I'm not claiming so do whatever you want.

FD Spreadsheets wont exist until day 2 if I'm still alive. Yesterday was sunday, my busy church day. Today is April 15th, aka tax day, my busy work day.

I know I'm not scum, but I don't know that i won't be lynched. Why would I remove myself from the potential lynch pool? I know my PERSONAL vote wont go on me, but that doesn't mean shit if 8 others do.

And yes, our chance of successfully lynching scum tomorrow is also low because there are always less scum than town, but no one is saying to NL day 2 so why are you bringing it up?

Day 2 is not Day 1.

Kirby321 posted...

There's nuance to this. Stop with the ignorant blanket statements.

No Lynch on any future day is dumb because we have information from flips. This D1 is no different from any other D1 in that we've got jack shit to go off of and any lynch that happens will be sheer luck more often than not.

On future days, we have more information to mitigate our worsened odds of finding scum. Today, we have extremely low odds of hitting scum, and we have absolutely zero info besides "Corrik shot IGCD" and the latter's flip to go off, which at best just tells us that Corrik is town and nothing else.

Suppose Lea is Cop. Then this day ends with either her getting lynched or her claiming. And if she lives and scum has a full-time roleblocker, Lea becomes completely useless.

Whereas if we just NL without any extra buzz, Cop Lea can safely get a scan.

Exactly, and not only that, but if she scans someone innocent then that creates a 1 in whatever chance that she actually prevents a mislynch on day 2 straight away by happening to have information on an innocent person who starts to get sus.

But hey, you guys do the regular thing and apply pressure on a bunch of different people today and force claims and switch pressure and force more claims and then be surprised pikachu face when multiple important town roles get outed, all to chase the low% chance of the day 1 scum lynch.

Obellisk posted...

and when in any situation has less scum than town been a problem with lynching anyone? If there were ever a more then 50% chance to hit scum out of the pool of players, I got bad news for ya, the game would already be over.

If we assume 4/15 (which isn't guaranteed) then 21.43% is less than 26.67%. Almost 20% less in fact. And sure hitting scum is always possible, but day 1 has always been a crap shoot, so if there was ever a time to decide NOT to roll the dice, this is it. A day where a scum has already been killed day 1.

You don't have to agree (obviously), but me going with NL doesn't make me scum, and in fact I am not.

But if you want to make ME the mislynch then go ahead and try it, I don't have the ability to prevent it from happening. Just be prepared for snark later.

Obellisk posted...

Let's just move past Lea and ctes abd lynch FD.

LOL you said it again half an hour later and still didn't vote.

Obellisk posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Numerically, we are less likely to hit scum today now than before the game began.

I do not like this statement as defense to not lynch someone.

I would lynch FD today.

Then vote me. What a weak thing to say and not even cast a vote.

Is what I said wrong? No. We have less scum to potentially lynch today than we did before the game began, full stop. If you lynch me that chance is reduced to 0% because I am town. All you can do today is force claims out which is something scum WANTS now that their godfather is dead.

And yeah, there is a chance that scum could be lynched today, big fucking deal. It's a LOW chance and we can start pursuing lynches more aggressively tomorrow. That doesn't mean we can't still be sus of people today, just that I believe we should NL regardless of the sus because sus is often wrong and lynching or outing town power should absolutely be avoided. Last thing we need is for another power to claim for no reason.

Then yeah, you're only responsible for both halves if the credit was claimed on a Joint return.

So you've been paying 250 a year?

Did you file separately in '08 and claim 3750 each?

But regarding the number of payments it's possible a year got skipped awhile ago when our system was less good at noticing and so it wasn't rejected.

Obellisk posted...

it's my 11 year olds favorite movie.

Wow is Winry 11 already?

ChichiriMuyo posted...

It told me that it was because of the homebuyer's credit, but not what about it. I was trying to repay the same amount I've paid every year over a decade. The thing it was rejecting on was the question of how much of it I have previously repaid. They know how much I repaid, but no one could tell me. So much time wasted waiting for and dealing with "customer support" to no avail. So I just kept resending until I got the right amount.

But the thing is, it literally does not matter for this year's filing. It won't matter until I repay in full. I thought I was on my last payment, then I figured maybe I have one left next year. Turns out I'll be repaid in full two tax seasons from now.

Credit was taken in 2008.
First repayment would have been on 2010 taxes.

If you took the full credit of 7500 then you should have made 13 payments and this would be your 14th.

But that's ideally. This credit can get crazy complicated by the variety of different changes to your situation that can occur over 15 years. Maybe it was taken on joint taxes but then you got divorced? Maybe the house was sold or condemned for a loss. Maybe the house now belongs to the person who used to be listed second on taxes. Maybe you and your spouse take turns changing who gets listed first each year (Do NOT do this !!!)

There are actually dozens of different scenarios people have found themselves in that can impact how the repayment of that credit gets tracked and handled, and I don't think I'm exaggerating to say that I'm probably the only employee in my unit of 15~ who properly understands it.

ItzKnightz posted...

Oh no, am I stuck in groundhog day?

*chuckles to himself*

I don't believe a 13 year old has seen that movie.

Yeah Ulti is fishing for claims and setting up a potential scum Framer to succeed.

Not crazy about it

Ned? Ned Ryerson?!

ChichiriMuyo posted...

The US tax system is such bullshit. I got rejected multiple times and I couldn't figure out why and no one could tell me. I had to guess my way into figuring out what I was doing wrong. And the worst part is that the number I was getting wrong changed absolutely nothing about what I needed to pay or what I was going to get in return.

How are you filling? You should get an email after it rejects explaining why it didn't go through.

Common issues include a wrong SSN (of claiming a dependent who has already been claimed) or failing to include a Form 8962 if you have health insurance through the state marketplace.

But regardless the rejection should either provide an explanation or at the very least a rejection code that can be googled

foolm0r0n posted...

That doesn't make sense considering you're still getting docs sent to you late Feb (which is very close to the LLC filing date) and your taxes get accepted within a couple hours even if you submit in the last week.

Well if you haven't filed on time you get a very stern talking to and that's even if you are due a refund. If you have an unpaid or unfiled balance it could be grounds for dismissal.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Didn't like Rogue One, didn't bother with Solo.

But do you have any strong feelings about episode 8?

lol telling the scanners what to do.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I respect FD as a player too much to suddenly think hed make a cowards play as town. No lynch stinks and Corrik is right.

I don't even think it's the first time I've advocated for NL in a spot where town is ahead day 1

Okay, gone for real this time

Corrik7 posted...

If you lynch scum, you are even further ahead. If you mislynch, you have 3-4 flips to make a better informed lynch tomorrow.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Scum WANTS town power to get outed today with their godfather dead. Don't take a course of action that might lead to this occurrence.

.

We don't need home runs to win the game. Singles and doubles will do the trick as long as we aren't making unforced errors and thanks to your shot we're already ahead.

But now I've said as much as I can or want to in support of NL and church service has started. I'll be around again tonight.

changmas posted...

the scenario where town lynching the most suspicious person ends up being town power

This just feels patiently false. We out town power and have to pivot ALL the damn time. It's why the b8 special typically involves one or multiple brand new lynches forming in the final few minutes of the day, because claims come out and everyone pivots in unison forcing more and more claims.

I'd love to see a game where only 1 person claims day 1 and everyone just stays the course on their lynch and no crazy pivots occur.

Ah right the even night thing.

Scum could also have extra or special kills that can be used on odd nights? Only that the 'regular' scum kill can only be used on even nights is how I interpreted it.

But we don't have to solve the entire game today.

changmas posted...

how likely do you think it is that scum can read town power well enough to hit at least one with a kill (if they can kill on odd nights too) or at least a timely roleblock?

changmas posted...

how likely do you think it is that scum can read town power well enough to hit at least one with a kill (if they can kill on odd nights too) or at least a timely roleblock?

I think their chances go WAY up if town power claims today.

We're probably looking at 4 vs 11. Possibly a very very strong 3 vs 12 (unlikely). 3 vs 11 after the godfather flip.

Probably 2ish info roles in town that can no longer be foiled by GF. Let them cook

Lopen posted...

Lea would never subscribe to this cowardly course of action.

Send her

I did think her NL vote without comment was odd, but I'd still prefer to NL

changmas posted...

When should we swap from No lynch to try and lynch someone?

I know this wasn't directed at me but I'll answer for myself anyways.

I just think that we're in a position today where we can afford to give town power, whoever they may be, a measure of safety.

And we can go back to lynching tomorrow where even if we force a power claim they will have at least a single night action to provide.

Better than an alternative reality where we force an important power to claim today and they eat an unblockable bullet tonight.

Corrik7 posted...

No lynch is literally dumb.

Then I guess I'm dumb

Kirby321 posted...

Honestly, I like this. Though I have to admit that I'm a lot more wary of FD proposing town gameplans now haha

Totally fair

But I will say that I think it's a really good look for you being quick to hop onto the NL train. Scum will of course embrace the plan once it's clear it has support and once it's been explained why its a pro-town idea, but until it has any momentum at all it could potentially be avoided.

+1 town points for Kirby

UltimaterializerX posted...

No lynch is pointless, because if we hit a second scum today they're buried.

Numerically, we are less likely to hit scum today now than before the game began. Take the W and don't take the line that will almost certainly throw a dead town on top of the dead scum.

Scum WANTS town power to get outed today with their godfather dead. Don't take a course of action that might lead to this occurrence.

The two team speculation is certainly odd at this my juncture.

And imo knightz behavior doesn't mean too much yet until we have a baseline.

I think town being ahead is a perfect opportunity to ##NL personally

Scum in this spot will absolutely need a town to die and hope it's either a good role or at least that several good roles get revealed on the way to a mislynch.

If Ulti is suggesting a mass then clearly the correct answer is to reveal absolutely no information and skip to tomorrow. We don't even have to worry about info roles hitting godfather anymore.

##Vote: No Lynch

It's like you his are saying Saving Private Ryan couldn't be a good movie because it wasn't "fun" enough.

A well made war movie is fantastic. To me it was not only a good war movie, but it existed in a universe I already enjoy.

Howdy howdy howdy

Good shot Corrik, see you day 2 you absolute legend.

RikkuAlmighty posted...

Rogue One is the best Star Wars movie without exception.

Hey.

The best non mainline movie. Empire Strikes Back still exists.

I work for the IRS so I filed ages ago. Early is on time and on time is late. I never have a balance though, and the refund was better than usual this year because I bought an EV last year

Please don't be like the people who listen to "tax hacks" that they see on tik tok and claim $20,000+ in credits you aren't entitled to.

You'd be shocked at the number of people who are trying it (both last year and this year) and the extra work it creates makes our manual review process take so much longer. It won't be an issue if your information is all accepted automatically (which should be the case for most people who file correctly), but on the off chance you get selected for a review prepare to wait a long ass time thanks to those jokers.

That issue is actually somewhat nuanced. California passed a similar kind of "lookback" period for sexual crimes to be brought forward though in our case it was by the end of 2022, and someone made a claim against the pastor of my church, a claim that literally was not possible. The allegation was that my pastor committed abuse against this John Doe before he even moved to california or lived in the town in question or pastored at the church that the abuse allegedly occurred in (and actually at that point the church was located in a different part of town). Not only was it false, but there's no physical way for it to have been true. But if you are spamming allegations (presumably in hopes for a quiet settlement??) then I guess you don't care about any of that, and that's what this guy seemed to be doing.

But every step of the process involved delays, largely waiting on the plaintiff (or his counsel) to actually provide any kind of substantive information. But it was a whole lot of "plaintiff and lawyer did not show up for court appearance, reschedule in 6 weeks". "Still no word from plaintiff, reschedule in 6 weeks". "Plaintiff's lawyer dropped plaintiff and now plaintiff needs additional time to find new representation, reschedule in 6 weeks". All in all the process took over a year and my pastor paid tens of thousands of dollars in legal fees that he will not get back, even now that the case was dismissed WITHOUT prejudice.

Now why his lawyers (who I guess he was referred to by the church district? idk) required so much money for not having to actually do anything? That I don't know. I'm guessing the entire process could have been handled much more cost effectively, but the big winners in the whole equation were the legal counsel so maybe they weren't incentivized to speed the process along, but the entire situation was shitty and basically put him half of his annual salary in the hole.

This isn't a situation where he discussed the issue from the pulpit to seek out financial assistance or anything. It's something I found out about because I'm family friends with the pastor and his kids so I only knew about it from other channels. Once I found out about it I pulled up all the civil court documents because they are public record so I could follow along with the case' progress throughout the year.

.

Which is all to say that people who have been the victim of sexual crimes should absolutely be given the opportunity to have their day in court, but it's also a system that I have personally seen abused. And the man who filed the false suit? Nothing will happen to him. My pastor could potentially file countersuit for legal fees/damages, but then he'll be out even MORE lawyer fees only for a judgement to be levied against someone who realistically will never be able to pay off the debt. It just sucked all around.

The Art of the Deal?

until then we can joke about how we definitely wont (but might, and lets face it, probably will) dayvig Sbell if given the option.

Even if we assume that the things Nanis linked was 100% true, what does an article or Twitter thread have to do with getting warned on GameFAQs??

Whether your point is

"I said something offensive and got warned, but look at this other offensive thing!"

Or

"I called someone (on board 8) anti-Semitic, but look at this other person (not on board 8). They are a REAL anti-Semite"

That's not the gotcha you think it is.

what if I promise to dayvig you before then?