Board 8 > Toy Story Mafia Topic 1: A Poisoned Waterhole

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen posted...

Nah

Chang has been playing pretty scummy

Ben's catch was good and handwaving me + Ulti pressure feels wrong considering we are two of the best here at actually pushing for lynches

lol

thinking about my own game just a month ago when lopen repeatedly suggested triple and in some cases, penta kills and not a single one of them ever had a scum player in them

you clearly got me pegged off of three posts though !

Do you think Lopen is town, Chang?

My early game is good though. Red thinks so

Also the first triple kill I suggested had one of the two scum remaining in it what are you selling man

##Vote: Chang

This is overly dismissive to the point it has to come from scum. We can go down the Corrik rabbit hole if he flips town

Join me Ulti we have an opportunity to not fight it will be glorious

ctesjbuvf posted...

Do you think Lopen is town, Chang?

probably yeah but its not as solidified as in other games for me yet

only thing throwing me off rn is the knightz suspicion which could feel faked to me. I agree that what knightz has been doing is completely in line with his signup topic personality. And furthermore if hes used to among us it makes a ton of sense to be swapping reads on a dime thats kind of how that game works

i need at least one more data point of lopen going after someone else to make a more confident town read though

Lynch all factually incorrectors

Lopen claiming knightz is wildly swinging his vote around to defend me (chang) is just laughable though

In no world does that happen that way

He's wildly swinging his vote to defend HIMSELF for when you flip scum

Notably Knightz didn't actually move his vote around a lot in the super early gamd

He voted sbell then voted Chang immediately and left it on Chang for quite some time

Then I said "I dont see a reason to vote Chang there he might be informed" and now he's all over

sure man all the scum players just rolled into the topic and did theatre with each other for 40 mins before anyone else showed up

and knightz got so spooked by his own teammate doing theatre with me before anyone else even showed up that he got nervous and starting throwing his vote around wildly

good stuff

Also I find it interesting that knightz said he needed to go to sleep, popped in 20 minutes later to answer a Chang question that wasn't very important then disappeared again.

I am feeling better and better about these two. Perhaps I'm giving knightz not enough credit but I think paying too much attention to scummates is something that trips newer players up often

he voted for two players in the first hour which to you means he "didn't actually move his vote around a lot" and then voted for just three players since then which means "now he's all over"

alright

i'm done with lopen now

ulti what can i do for ya

Not really though

He voted for sbell all of 5 seconds

He basically just voted you

The odd thing about that changvote to me is the way he afterwards said that he didnt even notice IGCD was going after Changmas as well.

In general I would like more explanations from him per vote.

I think town being ahead is a perfect opportunity to ##NL personally

Scum in this spot will absolutely need a town to die and hope it's either a good role or at least that several good roles get revealed on the way to a mislynch.

If Ulti is suggesting a mass then clearly the correct answer is to reveal absolutely no information and skip to tomorrow. We don't even have to worry about info roles hitting godfather anymore.

##Vote: No Lynch

The two team speculation is certainly odd at this my juncture.

And imo knightz behavior doesn't mean too much yet until we have a baseline.

htaeD posted...

Oh right, double kills will hint at something.

Still Ben making that assumption about 2 scumteams does not sound too odd a leap since its happened before, even if I dont think thats exactly the case here.

Explain why you do not think its the case.

IGCDs flip referred to 'the scum team'
Not this scumteam.
Basically to me this flip is not as clear cutting as the flips in Tekken Mafia were.

I am not ruling it out alltogether tho.

If it helps you Lopen to drop the Knightz suspicion, I'll point you to his Post #1 of topic 1 where he claims his role name because he is a poor alone Town without a team to guide him lol. And that's ignoring a whole other post that confirms him town that I wont point to.

I think its important he doesn't become a distraction this game. Mark him as town and move on.

htaeD posted...

IGCDs flip referred to 'the scum team'
Not this scumteam.
Basically to me this flip is not as clear cutting as the flips in Tekken Mafia were.

I am not ruling it out alltogether tho.

Alright makes sense. Yeah I'll continue to operate assuming one scum team until we learn more.

I asked you that question because it was weird to me that you would relate to me thinking there could be two scum teams but not believe it yourself, but it sounds like we are on the same page as being open to the idea but not certain

I think Chang can be scum and Knightz can be town and never lynch Knightz before Chang so I won't be distracting game with it (yet!!!)

Lopen posted...

I think Chang can be scum and Knightz can be town and never lynch Knightz before Chang so I won't be distracting game with it (yet!!!)

Chang talking to Knightz on page 1 gave me Scum-Chang Town-Knightz vibes. IGCD oddly enough clearly felt the same, which is interesting and I'm not sure how to read yet until we resolve the multiple scum teams thing.

Obellisk posted...

half the team can kill even nights and half the team can kill odd nights.... all 1 team, 2 and 2.

fuck. That is also plausible for this game.

This feels like the best theory

Does sbell usually theorize about setup this much?

It doesn't feel like a "fuck" moment when I reread the post after digging it up is why I'm asking.

Lopen posted...

It doesn't feel like a "fuck" moment when I reread the post after digging it up is why I'm asking.

It read fine to me. Sbell had just got done posting his proof for why two scum teams is impossible and the "fuck" was in reply to someone who gave him another scenario where there still can be two scum teams

Ok I buy that

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I think town being ahead is a perfect opportunity to ##NL personally

Scum in this spot will absolutely need a town to die and hope it's either a good role or at least that several good roles get revealed on the way to a mislynch.

If Ulti is suggesting a mass then clearly the correct answer is to reveal absolutely no information and skip to tomorrow. We don't even have to worry about info roles hitting godfather anymore.

##Vote: No Lynch

Honestly, I like this. Though I have to admit that I'm a lot more wary of FD proposing town gameplans now haha

But I think NL on D1 is a safe bet, especially with Corrik nailing scum. Really puts a lot of pressure on scum to blindly shoot with little information and reveal their thought process, and as you pointed out, we're likely to get a bunch of town role claims leading up to a potential mislynch.

You have my shield. ##Vote: No Lynch

UltimaterializerX posted...

No lynch is pointless, because if we hit a second scum today they're buried.

What are the odds we nail scum today? We may not have a number for scum, but it doesn't take a statistician to realize we are far likelier to mislynch town than lynch scum. No sense taking such a huge risk when we're ahead. Let's not get cocky

Kirby321 posted...

Honestly, I like this. Though I have to admit that I'm a lot more wary of FD proposing town gameplans now haha

But I think NL on D1 is a safe bet, especially with Corrik nailing scum. Really puts a lot of pressure on scum to blindly shoot with little information and reveal their thought process, and as you pointed out, we're likely to get a bunch of town role claims leading up to a potential mislynch.

You have my shield. ##Vote: No Lynch

Yeah that checks out.
##unvote

##vote No lynch

Kirby321 posted...

What are the odds we nail scum today? We may not have a number for scum, but it doesn't take a statistician to realize we are far likelier to mislynch town than lynch scum. No sense taking such a huge risk when we're ahead. Let's not get cocky

But Ulti is a statistician

Is he actually

UltimaterializerX posted...

No lynch is pointless, because if we hit a second scum today they're buried.

Numerically, we are less likely to hit scum today now than before the game began. Take the W and don't take the line that will almost certainly throw a dead town on top of the dead scum.

Scum WANTS town power to get outed today with their godfather dead. Don't take a course of action that might lead to this occurrence.

Lopen posted...

This feels like the best theory

It's the worst theory. It straight up says "the scum team" and not "you".

We have a number of possible suspects for Mafia why don't we just go No Lynch just in case we might kill a town

Normally I would say scum has too much potential power in their pocket for a NL to be useful.
But they did just lose a rolescanner and their numbers are possibly diminished beyond the dayvig shot.

Part of me still thinks its more useful to play a normal day1 tho. Info-gathering wise.

Kirby321 posted...

Honestly, I like this. Though I have to admit that I'm a lot more wary of FD proposing town gameplans now haha

Totally fair

But I will say that I think it's a really good look for you being quick to hop onto the NL train. Scum will of course embrace the plan once it's clear it has support and once it's been explained why its a pro-town idea, but until it has any momentum at all it could potentially be avoided.

+1 town points for Kirby

No lynch is literally dumb.

ctesjbuvf posted...

It's the worst theory. It straight up says "the scum team" and not "you".

What?

ItzKnightz posted...

We have a number of possible suspects for Mafia why don't we just go No Lynch just in case we might kill a town

Numerically its a bad idea, since scum always gets a chance to do whatever they please at night and town only has so many chances to kill scum.

PunishedBen posted...

there still can be two scum teams

well 1 scum team broken into 2 factions that are unaware of each other.

not very far off from the traitor dynamic of Star Trek Mafia.

but yes. the fuck was absolutely in response to realizing its not as concrete as I'd previously thought.

htaeD posted...

Numerically its a bad idea, since scum always gets a chance to do whatever they please at night

you read the flip that said scum can only shoot on even nights?

Corrik7 posted...

No lynch is literally dumb.

Then I guess I'm dumb