Board 8 > Toy Story Mafia Topic 1: A Poisoned Waterhole

(+) Yeah! (+)

Votals at the Dinico Gas Station
No lynch(3) - Fd, Kirby, Lea,(ItzKnightz), (Chang)
Chang (2) Ulti,ItzKnightz (lopen), (IGCD), (Knight), (sbell), (Lopen)
Lea (2)- Lopen, Ben
Lopen (1) - Chang,(Kirby)
Corrik (0) - (Ulti), (Lopen)
Ben (0) - (Knight)

Lopen posted...

I'm thinking faked tbh.

Legitimately been posting a lot less today (sbell noticed!) and intentionally backed off from him to give him breathing room

He decides to just double down.

Up for Lea or Chang today. Would probably just NL over the rest

To be fair If changmas didnt quite follow your ranking of 'how much you want to lynch' knightz. Then I can understand that since I am confused as well.

Groovy Clothing Vendor who doesn't know what their vending actually does.

Yeah if it's fake they don't say they don't know I think. It would also be absurd to fake but yeah.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Groovy Clothing Vendor who doesn't know what their vending actually does.

Yeah if it's fake they don't say they don't know I think. It would also be absurd to fake but yeah.

My flavor for my role just says "gift some groovy clothing" and that's all it really says about my role.

It's fine, I don't think we need to know more.

at this point you are surely scum if you can't see the screaming, bleeding town aura coming off of him

htaeD posted...

To be fair If changmas didnt quite follow your ranking of 'how much you want to lynch' knightz. Then I can understand that since I am confused as well.

Less plausible for him to misunderstand since he's literally the guy I'm conditionally scumcasing Knightz on

Also I have never actually voted Knightz today and am saying to lynch Lea

As of now the best course of action is to lynch Kirby today, I'll shot FD tomorrow, and we lynch Lea tomorrow. There is scum here and the others are anti-town at best anyways.

Corrik7 posted...

As of now the best course of action is to lynch Kirby today, I'll shot FD tomorrow, and we lynch Lea tomorrow. There is scum here and the others are anti-town at best anyways.

Why do I not think you're town

Why insist on lynching Kirby when Lea has 2 votes

Think Kirby is the most likely town of the three by a large margin I won't sign off on that lynch either

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I did think her NL vote without comment was odd, but I'd still prefer to NL

FD saying this pinged me pretty hard

Kirby had no such moment yet

Lopen posted...

Why insist on lynching Kirby when Lea has 2 votes

I really don't care which.

changmas posted...

at this point you are surely scum if you can't see the screaming, bleeding town aura coming off of him

So do you think Lopen is scum for trying to push him or what is your case here? What made Lopen go from almost certainly town?

changmas posted...

##Vote: Lopen

if we're taking a free lynch today might as well clear up some airspace

Probably the towniest post from Chang so far lol

Corrik7 posted...

I really don't care which.

Vote Lea then please we aren't lynching Kirby Sephiroth told us not to

Did Lea ever show up past the No Lynch vote?

ctesjbuvf posted...

Did Lea ever show up past the No Lynch vote?

I dont think so

If the scum team can only do regular night kills on even days and has let's say 2 extra shots for odd.

The likelihood is there is 5 scum (barring 3p). Which increased odds on shooting day 1.

2 extra shots
5-10
Mislynch night 1 extra shot Odd
5-8
Mislynch night 2 regular shot Even
5-6
Misfire or mislynch is game. So this is likely not correct for 2 extra shots. Would have to be 1 extra shot.

1 extra shot
5-10
Mislynch extra shot odd
5-8
Mislynch regular shot even
5-6
Misfire or mislynch game over. Still unlikely.

No extra shots
5-10
Mislynch no extra shot odd
5-9
Mislynch regular shot even
5-7
Mislynch no extra shot
5-6. (Can only lose here if vig shoots wrong)

So if there is no shot tonight I think we are looking at a 5 man scum team.

If there is a shot tonight, 4 man is likely, whether its a sk or scum extra shot.

ctesjbuvf posted...

So do you think Lopen is scum for trying to push him or what is your case here? What made Lopen go from almost certainly town?

Trying way too hard to build a case on knightz that isnt there. no one should be able to read those posts knowing they come from a young teenager playing their first game of mafia and conclude that its that kind of deception.

ergo scum trying too hard to emulate the town Lopen game

changmas posted...

Trying way too hard to build a case on knightz that isnt there

Please summarize the effort I put into building a case on him, since I'm trying way too hard

Also he has played Among Us he knows how these games work

youve clearly thrown his name out there multiple times to fish for viability

theres no town equity in that

There are many reasons to do that even if you don't think the person is scum

Anyway I don't see how "throwing a name out a few times" is "trying way too hard"

You're the one trying way too hard to square peg me into a Knightz hunter

that answer still reads as though you think hes scum.

youre just wording it in a way that doesnt directly say either way

All I'm saying is he's not mortally locked town for me and I think people who are saying he is are likely trying to pocket him

He's 13 not 6.

Gun to head I'd probably say he's town right now though. Would NL over lynching him.

lol telling the scanners what to do.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Day 1 pass, and whoever the scanner is should target him night 1. We've done this dance before with new players.

and why do you not trust me?

Lopen, I have finally settled Into a chair for a few minutes and I iso'd Leas posts.

then I laughed when I saw there were only 2.

I'd lynch Lea and sleep well regardless of alignment flip.

UltimaterializerX posted...

All new players should be scanned night 1. Its not a you thing.

I thought it was a me thing. Glad to hear it's not.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Though honestly? You're such obvious new player town that I wouldn't mind if the scanners just did something else.

What will the Scanners do?

ItzKnightz posted...

What will the Scanners do?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/d/d82cf735.png

ItzKnightz posted...

What will the Scanners do?

Scanners will do what they think is the best thing for scanners to do.

(Scanners meaning roles like Cop, Tracker, Watcher, etc. And typically, it's a bad idea to openly tell scanning roles who they should scan because scum could potentially have tools to manipulate the outcome in their favor, knowing exactly who is targeting who)

Ned? Ned Ryerson?!

Yeah Ulti is fishing for claims and setting up a potential scum Framer to succeed.

Not crazy about it

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Ned? Ned Ryerson?!

Oh no, am I stuck in groundhog day?

*chuckles to himself*

Corrik7 posted...

As of now the best course of action is to lynch Kirby today, I'll shot FD tomorrow, and we lynch Lea tomorrow. There is scum here and the others are anti-town at best anyways.

Genuine question, Corrik: what's the scum equity in pushing for a NL?

Given that scum is down a member, wouldn't it be better for scum if more townies ended up dying? The odds of town getting lynched today are astronomically higher than scum getting lynched. So why would scum push for NL when the odds of them lynching town is super likely?

I just don't see the logic there. Call it anti-town, sure, but scummy? That makes zero sense.

Kirby321 posted...

So why would scum push for NL when the odds of them lynching town is super likely?

Leaving own opinions out of NL entirely, it's that vote trains tend to give a lot of info and agreeing on NL gives none. You know this answer. There is always a mathematically higher chance, that's not a good case by itself.

I'm not opposed to NL in principle but I think pushing for it early into the day is a loss.

NL debate is more principal than it's logical imo, it doesn't yield much, but the ones of you that are set on it should wait pushing it until tomorrow.

ItzKnightz posted...

Oh no, am I stuck in groundhog day?

*chuckles to himself*

I don't believe a 13 year old has seen that movie.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I don't believe a 13 year old has seen that movie.

it's my 11 year olds favorite movie.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Leaving own opinions out of NL entirely, it's that vote trains tend to give a lot of info and agreeing on NL gives none. You know this answer. There is always a mathematically higher chance, that's not a good case by itself.

I'm not opposed to NL in principle but I think pushing for it early into the day is a loss.

First off, you're not Corrik.

Second, sure, there's always a mathematically higher chance of lynching town, but with a scum already killed, those higher chances are incredibly higher than they would be normally.

That's the point I'm really trying to get across. There's more nuance to this particular scenario than just applying blanket logic.

The other point that's always getting ignored is that, yeah, lynch trains do give information, but quite often with B8, we end up outing a town power role D1 who then just gets fucked over the rest of the game, and then lynching another power role.

The last game town won (Simpsons Mafia) had absolutely minimal claiming D1, which then caused scum to burn several shots into vanillas and not hit a single power until N3, who was the Cop that managed to scan a scum guilty. The less info we give scum, the better, especially when we're already ahead. We should be forcing scum to shoot into a town with zero info to work with while our town scanners do their work.

I think it's utterly asinine to think that FD or I are making these logically-sound, pro-town arguments as scum. Lea and Chang didn't say anything to justify their votes for NL, so sure, throw them shade, but it's flat-out stupid to think FD and I are arguing for NL because we're scummy mustache-twirling scum. I can't speak for FD, but I'm arguing for safety because town has more often than not fucked up incredible leads like this from getting overconfident instead of thinking things through.

You guys keep saying "info this" and "info that" and yet nobody has been able to point out where this so-called useful info has ever lead town to doing something productive the following day. Maybe in a game where Lopen was killed D1 or N1, but otherwise, I'm pretty damn sure town has rarely, if ever, used D1 lynch trains to actually indict scum and convinced everyone else.