Board 8 > Paper Mario Mafia Topic 10 - Thinner Mario, Bigger Adventure!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Alive (9):
Ctes
Dumey
Han
Hb
Kirby
Peaf
Plum
Red
Ulti

Shredded:
LD1: Isquen Eldstar, TOWN Vanilla
KN1: Lea Bombette, TOWN Bomb
KN1: SBell - Koopa Bros., KOOPA TROOP Ninjas
LD2: Sultan Mario, TOWN Hero
KN2: death Lady Bow, TOWN Doctor
KN2: Cody Muskular, TOWN Vanilla
LD3: Ben Bowser, KOOPA TROOP Bulletproof Role Scanner
KN3: JC Watt, TOWN Jack-of-all-Trades

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day ends at 9:00 P.M. Eastern (or 10 hours from now).

If Ctes is Town, then he scanned me as Kooper, plum.

And thank you, Kirby.

Flavor meta is important, yes. I am inclined to think Red is higher chance of being Indy than Scum, yes.

But the truth is that Red is not Town. He could just be another member of Scum - nothing prevents the host from making this sort of decision.

Kirby321 posted...

I'm also assuming 2 scum left because the game would've been over D3 if Sultan blew up Lea and scum shot somebody else N1. 3 scum is still possible, but it feels way too volatile for this setup as we know it.

I did the math, and it's equally volatile in the other way.

Lynch D1
Scum dies to Bomb
Mario kills Scum
Lynch D2
Mario kills Scum

5 Scum lose before start of D3. And that's with roles we know are confirmed.

Hmm... fair point. If there's three scum remaining, then I'd have to review Day 1 and see if I notice anything.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Im kind of shocked he hasnt tried to kill me yet for almost lynching him on day 2 I think?

I HAVE GUNNED AT YOU SO MUCH FOR THIS

You are literally lying, or literally not reading the game, Ulti.

Additionally, again, if Ctes is Town, then that means he scanned me as Kooper.

OR ELSE HE WOULDN'T SAY I WAS TOWN YESTERDAY

Anyway, question for the others present: Remember all the times I said "wow Ulti's behavior sure is weird; it's Scummy that he ignored me D2; Ulti has flip flopped me from Town-Scum-Town and now it looks like Scum again"

We remember this, right?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

But the truth is that Red is not Town. He could just be another member of Scum - nothing prevents the host from making this sort of decision.

The irony is that I hope you understand the same reasoning could be applied to you and your claim of Kooper.

Host discretion could make Kooper scum! He's a Koopa, after all. And thus Ulti's argument that you're scum neighborizer holds weight.

(Not that I agree with Ulti at all. I'm just poking fun at this argument that, while in a vacuum is totally legitimate, could also be used against you in this game)

Votals

Red [3] - ctes, Ulti, Plum
Ulti [1] - Dumey
Dumey [1] - (Plum), Kirby
Plum [0] - (Ulti)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day ends at 9:00 P.M. Eastern (or 10 hours from now).

UltimaterializerX posted...

Ctes can you verify the Han scan?

My dude
Ulti

Ctes verified that Han was truthful about his flavor

Come on bro

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Anyway, question for the others present: Remember all the times I said "wow Ulti's behavior sure is weird; it's Scummy that he ignored me D2; Ulti has flip flopped me from Town-Scum-Town and now it looks like Scum again"

Duly noted. And you know Ulti better than I would.

And yet I can't forget about that time he completely 180'd on Lea in an otherwise completely solved game at MyLo.

So to some degree, Ulti being like this does not surprise me too much lol

Kirby321 posted...

The irony is that I hope you understand the same reasoning could be applied to you and your claim of Kooper.

Host discretion could make Kooper scum! He's a Koopa, after all. And thus Ulti's argument that you're scum neighborizer holds weight.

(Not that I agree with Ulti at all. I'm just poking fun at this argument that, while in a vacuum is totally legitimate, could also be used against you in this game)

Jr. Troopa is a primary antagonist in Paper Mario
Kooper is a primary protagonist

These are not the same

Kirby321 posted...

Duly noted. And you know Ulti better than I would.

And yet I can't forget about that time he completely 180'd on Lea in an otherwise completely solved game at MyLo.

So to some degree, Ulti being like this does not surprise me too much lol

Oh, are you talking about that game that Lea MVP'd out a Town performance? I think that was the one where I got lynched D1 as Doctor?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Oh, are you talking about that game that Lea MVP'd out a Town performance? I think that was the one where I got lynched D1 as Doctor?

That's the one! lol
(Though I'd say Ben and Lea both had the MVP spot in that game)

UltimaterializerX posted...

Drop the mafia neighbor thing. I forgot about the scan.

You have to understand Im a late game choke artist in literally everything. Not just mafia :p

Look, I won't push you to do it because birthday, but you understand that I have been asking for you to actually explain your thought processes, right?

You posted in day 1 and early day 2 about things with little relevance to the game.
You did a big reread, and didn't really synthesize your thoughts at the end.
You flip-flopped on reads like 30 times this game without really explaining it.

You understand why you are firmly in the PoE for, near as I can tell, having no consistency to where I can't determine if you believe any of the things you've said. Right?

Hey Han, got a question
Did you mention you were Kooper before ctes revealed his scan, or afterwards?

Before. He didn't scan me yet.

Han, sorry, can you please remind me who you targeted n1? Or your power wasn't active then or something?

If you honestly want me to consider 3+1 remaining, then one possibility is Dumey + you and ctes with red as indy. I find this very unlikely but it's a possibility.

Most realistically at this time, I think it's Dumey+red with one remaining in Ulti or hb.

However, Plum hasn't had an incredible game and could be skating by since you and i declared him as town d2. This could check out with scum avoiding you entirely day 1 in order to put suspicion on you, since plum was also with sbell in making sure people don't go after you.

Ulti is... Ulti. He's been nothing if not consistently inconsistent.

Hb i thought was town early on but we all know how my track record is. I do not think it is both Ulti and hb, but I keep going back and forth here. Hb has been very reserved and in recent memory has only really stood out when i called him chummy with Sbell due to one joke post he made on d1. Neither player has really done anything that make me think they are town.

I'm going to put it out there preemptively here for myself, I think that I've had a pretty bad game. I've been overly paranoid, latched hard onto my own out of the box ideas and had difficulty getting out of them, and really struggled overall. I can understand why you think I might be scummy.

But I want to, in my defense, point to how many times I wanted to vote sbell on day 1. You were the one who told me no on that, han. And still I kept bringing it up.
Then for the d1 lynch, me being scum depends on at least one of you, hb, and plum being scum, if not two. That would have been an unbelievably risky play and I do not have the guts that others do for something like that. I am especially cowardly when I have something to hide.

And when Ben was calling Dumey town on day 2 for the level of effort that he was putting in, I tried to be the voice of reason about Dumey. He puts in work regardless of alignment. I notice you didn't back me up on that despite just letting in a game with him where he led the game in posts on the last day, and was close to the top on earlier days. I didn't outright call him scum because i don't know how to read the man, but i did try to remind everybody that his earnestness is not necessarily a town trait.

I've said it in the last topic but if Kirby is scum then he deserves a medal and his first victory. He is not in my poe whatsoever.

So, in summary:
Dumey & red both anti-town, both got to go.
Hb/ulti - one of them is very probably scum. Could be both if red is truly indie or Dumey is town.

Plum - if somehow Dumey is town and hb/ulti are not both scum, then plum would remain in my poe.
Han/ctes - can be scum in the situation where Dumey, hb, and Ulti are all town and red is either indie or town (unlikely)

Kirby - town

I couldn't use my power on night 1.

And yeah, fair defense about SBell. He pocketed me good. Him and I have had spats in the past in many games that were Town/Town, so when he was willing to disconnect, I was too.

In retrospect, him saying to remove Lea from our super team was red flags, but she got him good for that anyway.

And I can't criticize your play this game, Peaf. I mean, I said Ben's claim was vs and backed off because I thought Ulti was hinting Mario lol

Sorry, when i say wanted to vote sbell - i meant, get a train going on sbell.

With 18 minutes left in the day when Han and i were tied, i didn't go after Han (and in fact none of the scum did).

Peaf [3] - (Han), Ben, Han, Plum
Han [3] - Isquen, JC, Sultan
Lea [2] Kirby, Sbell
Isquen [1] (Sultan), EDumey, (Han), (Lea)
Sultan [1] - (Plum), Hb, (Isquen)
Dumey [1] - (Peaf), Lea
Plum [1] - Peaf

Han was already on me (later came off to ensure the tie). I did not vote for Han or isq because i did not think either was scum. I kept my vote on plum but repeatedly asked if we could move over to sbell, and if not him then Plum or Dumey. No one took me up on it, and Han and Ben both said they preferred Plum over Dumey but definitely not sbell. I don't think many others even engaged with the idea.

And with Dumey being scum, we know that the top 3 lynches by the end of the day (isq, me, lea) were all being pushed by scum.

Day 1 votals:
Isquen [4] (Sultan), EDumey, (Han), (Lea), Kirby, Lea, Han
Peaf [3] - (Han), Ben, (Han), (Plum), Death, red
Lea [2] (Kirby), Sbell, JC
Plum [2] Peaf, (Han), Sultan
Han [1] - Isquen, (JC), (Sultan)
Sultan [1] - (Plum), Hb, (Isquen)
Dumey [0] - (Peaf), (Lea)
Ben [0] - (Peaf), (Lea), (Death)
Red [0] (JC)
Kirby [0] - (Han), (Lea), (Sultan), (Peaf)
Hb [0] - (Sultan)
Sbell [0] - (Plum)

You can say that i was just trying to save my life or bus sbell, but i was honestly not sure what to do. So at that point my goal was to just let the chips fall and try to get town info based on what people said and did.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

In retrospect, him saying to remove Lea from our super team was red flags, but she got him good for that anyway.

I think the moment of truth here was towards the end of day, he directly asked you what you thought of her. You said you didn't see her as scum, and he pretty much dropped it after that.

I think you convinced him that they had to kill her.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Before. He didn't scan me yet.

Is it theoretically possible ctes is lying then? He could have been coasting off of scans Ben made.

Peace___Frog posted...

I think the moment of truth here was towards the end of day, he directly asked you what you thought of her. You said you didn't see her as scum, and he pretty much dropped it after that.

I think you convinced him that they had to kill her.

And then she killed him.

All a part of the Masterplan

Hbthebattle posted...

Is it theoretically possible ctes is lying then? He could have been coasting off of scans Ben made.

I believe Ctes entirely. Besides, if Ben scanned Red, it wouldn't give flavor, right? Ctes would have to bank on Red being Jr. Troopa.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

And then she killed him.

All a part of the Masterplan

Yeah I'm in awe of how she played it.
And highly amused by her post when she said she thought sbell was town. Chef's kiss

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I believe Ctes entirely. Besides, if Ben scanned Red, it wouldn't give flavor, right? Ctes would have to bank on Red being Jr. Troopa.

No, didn't Ben's flip say full flavor scan? And if red is not indie as you suggested then there's no need for Ben to scan red

Peace___Frog posted...

No, didn't Ben's flip say full flavor scan? And if red is not indie as you suggested then there's no need for Ben to scan red

I checked.

"Learn their exact role."

It's vague.

If Red is not Indy, then Ben wouldn't have scanned him, no. But also, then Ctes wouldn't be able to use Ben's scan to guess his flavor.

But is it possible that ctes fooled you the way that you fooled Chang last game?

Exact role could mean flavor and role. Is how they got you after you neighbored.

If Red is scumteam then no need for them to scan him. And he claimed indie just to waste time today and make ctes look good and confirmed even harder.

I think this line of questioning resolves at start of next day, tbh

Not to say it's not worth it, but like, I buy Ctes as Town more than I buy you, Peaf. And I really really really should buy you as Town.

Either way, if Red is Scum and they did this to make Ctes look good, then red is Scum.

If Red is not Scum and they did this to make Ctes look good, then that also means that Red is non-Town.

I agree. But i am voicing the idea for the court record.

If we get into a final 3 where ctes is alive and you are flipped town, the remaining town members should not automatically assume that it is not ctes.

Is it likely to be ctes? Probably not! But it should be considered with the other evidence and not immediately dismissed.

I think for today, Red is the obvious lynch.

I feel like this might fall on deaf ears, I just don't like how many people are setting me up as the obvious lynch for tomorrow instead of Kirby. Kirby is incredibly insistent on saving Red's ass today, and then also just placed Ulti in their town list, when I think Ulti should be in EVERYONE'S PoE right now, even if you don't think he's a priority lynch.

I think it's so clear that Kirby is trying to save Red for an extra night here. Maybe Red IS the role blocker that Kirby is so insistent on trying to hunt for, and knows that when he flips that he won't be able to explain why his claimed Town Kill isn't going through.

Was Red ever in danger of being lynched today after he claimed, if there was no scan from Ctes?

I dunno, I think this will be easier to argue tomorrow, but the plan here should definitely be Red, then Kirby tomorrow. I'm not just saying this as OMGUS or because I have to out of self preservation. Actually take a look at Kirby's actions and tell me that I'm the scummier of the pair here. >_>

##Unvote:
##Vote: Red
##Unvote:
##Vote: Kirby

I don't want to put Red at -2 right now, but consider me spiritually aligned with lynching Red, and will swap over to him if there are any hijinks at end of day.

Unless you guys do wanna kill Kirby. Cuz I'm always down for that. :)

I also agree with Peaf that is is important and good to consider the options of Han being scum here. Peaf is absolutely not anti-town for considering the options. I find it very difficult to believe that Han is scum without Ctes also being scum. But it is true that you are not 100% confirmed, so the option still has to be on the table.

It's just like third priority on the testing lynch that we can't really afford to go after. So if it is Han/Ctes scum team, then setting this up so we have multiple other lynches to prioritize before we can honestly consider them is truly Giga-brained and you deserve the win. It's exactly the type of high effort scum gambit that we tried to credit Han with being clever enough to execute before he got mad at us in the WIFOM debate.

Oh wow i was just about to say where is dumey.

Here is dumey's second to last post from last night:

EDumey posted...

Plum I don't know if you've just been ignoring my posts or what. I was pushing for Han at the beginning of the previous day. Han and Ctes linked themselves hard to push the votes off of Han at that time.

How could you buy one but not the other?

Dumey pushing to link them both is one of the things that got me thinking, maybe they shouldn't be linked as we have been. If ctes is town then he has obvious reason to buy Han, but if ctes is scum then he could still be pulling a fast one while Han is town.

It will depend where the other chips land, obviously. But i fully expect one of hb and ulti (or both!) to be in the final 3 if we get that far, and I do not want the other remaining town to jump the gun by assuming that ctes is confirmed just because Han is (assuming Han dies before then and flips town).

To entertain Dumey - if red is rber and you don't die tonight then Kirby will have explaining to do, yes. But i still don't see him as scum given the ben situations. Sorry, bro. But that's the power of the flip from ben.

Well i was pushing for it being ctes if only one of them are scum. If Han is scum then they're both scum imo.

Peace___Frog posted...

To entertain Dumey - if red is rber and you don't die tonight then Kirby will have explaining to do, yes. But i still don't see him as scum given the ben situations. Sorry, bro. But that's the power of the flip from ben.

Can you walk this one through for me? I really don't understand.

Kirby claims to be 100% insistent on using their action to kill me. If scum Roleblocker dies, and Kirby and I are still alive tomorrow, how do you justify that? Would you buy that Kirby decided to "test" someone else with Hammer on the night they know they Roleblocker is dead, and it just didn't happen to go through again?

In my mind, Roleblocker being lynched and Kirby being unable to produce my dead corpse is a 100% confirmation of Kirby being scum. I legitimately don't see any other scenario being possible.

Peace___Frog posted...

Well i was pushing for it being ctes if only one of them are scum. If Han is scum then they're both scum imo.

I guess if you want to entertain the idea of a scum neighborizer AND Han having a weird flavor for scum, then it COULD be possible, but that seems incredibly unlikely for scum Han to dupe a town Ctes there. Definitely linked together there.

EDumey posted...

I guess if you want to entertain the idea of a scum neighborizer AND Han having a weird flavor for scum, then it COULD be possible, but that seems incredibly unlikely for scum Han to dupe a town Ctes there. Definitely linked together there.

You read backwards. Scum ctes duping town han.

EDumey posted...

Can you walk this one through for me? I really don't understand.

Kirby claims to be 100% insistent on using their action to kill me. If scum Roleblocker dies, and Kirby and I are still alive tomorrow, how do you justify that? Would you buy that Kirby decided to "test" someone else with Hammer on the night they know they Roleblocker is dead, and it just didn't happen to go through again?

In my mind, Roleblocker being lynched and Kirby being unable to produce my dead corpse is a 100% confirmation of Kirby being scum. I legitimately don't see any other scenario being possible.

I personally am not putting further stock into me correctly interpreting how a weird role works in this game. That is how.

Perhaps there are rules on killing town. Perhaps any number of things. I am done looking at Kirby. He has proven himself to me with actions during day phase, damn the night.

Peace___Frog posted...

You read backwards. Scum ctes duping town han.

I didn't read backwards, but from the part I quoted I understand how you got that impression. I was agreeing with you that if Han is scum, then they're both scum. I was just caveating that it was TECHNICALLY possible but incredibly unlikely.

Peace___Frog posted...

I am done looking at Kirby. He has proven himself to me with actions during day phase, damn the night.

This is the part that confuses me, because I believe the exact opposite. And so having direct evidence of a contradiction in Kirby's stated actions would just do more to discredit what they've banked their entire game plan on.

Why are you so convinced by Kirby's day play? I looked back at the end of last topic but pretty much just see you after your MYLO/LYLO mathing say that if it's scum Kirby, then they deserve their win.

Oh i see. You were adding to my statement as opposed to disagreeing with it.

A possibility, sure. A very convoluted one that would be outside the realm of my wildest expectations.

And I've been wrong plenty in this game, I'll give you that. But I'm not buying that theory at all.

Yeah, flavor stuff aside I think Kirby looks incredibly towny and I follow his thought process entirely. Might be flawed at times but that's not a scumtell. I'd be seriously impressed if Kirby is pulling this off as scum.

I try to read Dumey without the role mechanic stuff because it doesn't make clear sense to me anyways. Also about Gourmet Guy actually being part of the Koopa Troop, well, either it's his real role or it's on the safelist. He helps out Mario in the game anyways.

EDumey posted...

This is the part that confuses me, because I believe the exact opposite. And so having direct evidence of a contradiction in Kirby's stated actions would just do more to discredit what they've banked their entire game plan on.

Why are you so convinced by Kirby's day play? I looked back at the end of last topic but pretty much just see you after your MYLO/LYLO mathing say that if it's scum Kirby, then they deserve their win.

Day 1 - Kirby didn't vote for Ben, but he was on him consistently for being off. You rushed to Ben's defense.

Day 2 - you both voted for Ben then unvoted him, but again, Kirby was on ben's case so much harder than you were.

Day 3 - Kirby buried Ben and was on him a lot. You were not on ben at all.

Simple enough?

Like, no offense to how Kirby plays, but even KIRBY hasn't defended their day play earlier. I called out specifically and asked Kirby if they had any reason to actually think I was scummy outside of their claimed role and failure to kill me, and they weren't able to generate anything. I just see a player that has done a LOT of meta discussion about the flavor and roles in the game, and then no scum hunting, pinning their entire reasoning of why I must be scum as just a conclusion from their night action.

Read back where Kirby has put Ulti on their probably town list, just because Ulti did a silly "fake cop scan" gambit for like 20 minutes in the last game before immediately recanting it! Is that the type of player read we're really going off of to clear a player that SHOULD be on everyone's PoE at this point?

Unless you're going hard on a personal pas-experience read, I really just don't see how Kirby has that much town equity for you.

It's the Ben, dumey.

Peace___Frog posted...

Day 1 - Kirby didn't vote for Ben, but he was on him consistently for being off. You rushed to Ben's defense.

Where did I rush to Ben's defense. I had him in my "lurking under the radar list" and pretty sure I never read him as town or defended him during that day. I certainly didn't have a read on him because he didn't post much.

Peace___Frog posted...

Day 2 - you both voted for Ben then unvoted him, but again, Kirby was on ben's case so much harder than you were.

You're right that Kirby went much harder on Ben than me. I stated early this day that the early adoption of going after Ben is the strongest thing in Kirby's favor, so I'll agree with you there. This doesn't discount the idea of Kirby just deciding to bus Ben though.

Peace___Frog posted...

Day 3 - Kirby buried Ben and was on him a lot. You were not on ben at all.

Read intent, and not just the votals. I had Ben on my proposed scum teams the ENTIRE day, and multiple times referred to him as a strong possibility of being scum. It's also one of the reasons why I continued onto Ulti today, because I had already made those conclusions the prior day.
Are you going to say I'm not on Red at all today just because I'm not putting him at -2 right now before the day ends?

I understand now at least that your entire analysis is just based on Kirby's voting record and being on Ben, while when I'm thinking of "day play" I'm actually trying to evaluate motivations and scum hunting. Not saying you're wrong to take that line! But that explains why I have such a strongly different reaction to Kirby than you.

Oh wait, the Day 1 defense thing you're talking about Topic 1 Page 1 attacking you for your early joke vote on Ben.

Dude. Please.

I know you're not going to accept this, but I will tell you right now that as EITHER alignment, I would have made that initial post saying you had a bad post for not engaging with Ben, just because there is so little to go off of and I was looking to generate conversation.

Me coming back the next morning and then getting into a sparring match with you is more about you and me, than it is about Ben. It's so crazy to reconstruct that as "rushing to Ben's defense" when I was just trying to make early day content with you!

EDumey posted...

Read intent, and not just the votals. I had Ben on my proposed scum teams the ENTIRE day, and multiple times referred to him as a strong possibility of being scum.

This is a much easier way for you to bus, yes.

EDumey posted...

Where did I rush to Ben's defense.

Over a joke vote on page 1. You jumped the gun.

EDumey posted...

This doesn't discount the idea of Kirby just deciding to bus Ben though.

My point is that he was very combative towards Ben for three days straight which culminated in Ben's lynch. I do not think that Kirby would have kept pushing this if he were on ben's team.

EDumey posted...

Are you going to say I'm not on Red at all today just because I'm not putting him at -2 right now before the day ends?

Well now you're just misconstruing things. Red has far fewer connections to other players with his posts and interactions than Ben does.