Board 8 > Paper Mario Mafia Topic 10 - Thinner Mario, Bigger Adventure!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Peaf I'm sorry, but I think you have to do a lot of work to convince us on this. Do the MYLO math. The only reason scumHan would out and kill Red the way he did is if he was intentionally trying to make the game harder on himself for the sheer fun of it. It's not just bussing. It's killing an extra scum night kill one day away from victory.

Unless it's four scum instead of five, and Han thought it was better to ensure himself a spot in an endgame scenario instead of trying to get a surprise game end. That doesn't really track with how we planned out last game's actions though.

Sorry if that "obvious" comes across as rude, it's meant as more of a "don't overthink it, I just claimed Ctes was my role" and having the flavor scan on Red should make it clear.

Peace___Frog posted...

We can agree to disagree... if you're alive in final 3.

Ulti or Dumey, who we thinking first? My money is on dumdumdumdumdumdum

And you're still thinking Kirby is town over me because they bussed Ben, but are willing to believe that Han is scum for shooting Red out of the air from nowhere? I feel like this is so inconsistent.

I'm really not sure how I can convince you otherwise when you're only looking at votals and seemingly ignoring all other context in the game.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Sorry if that "obvious" comes across as rude, it's meant as more of a "don't overthink it, I just claimed Ctes was my role" and having the flavor scan on Red should make it clear.

Sorry but that doesn't fully track. How'd you get Ctes to know Red was Jr. Troopa?

Hbthebattle posted...

Sorry but that doesn't fully track. How'd you get Ctes to know Red was Jr. Troopa?

Hinted it. I can find the post soon.

Yeah i wouldn't have picked up on that at all. Ctes is a smart cookie.

Peace___Frog posted...

Yeah i wouldn't have picked up on that at all. Ctes is a smart cookie.

It helps that he was Kooper and "shell game" was not very veiled, at least from his point of view.

Then again, I asked JC to his face is he was Watt and he missed it completely.

Anyway, mostly full claim before I go to bed.

Goombario, Town Flavor Cop

N1 - JC. I actually got an inclusive scan from this - technically, I got the tattle result for Big Lantern Ghost's Lantern. So I wasn't sure if JC was Watt or Big Lantern Ghost or Big Lantern Ghost's Lantern. That's why I kept pushing - I threw out like, 3 hints to JC hoping he'd catch them. Anyway, he eventually claimed to be Watt, and if you note, right after that I hopped off of him.

N2 - Ctes. This time, the flavor scan was conclusive, and said he was Kooper directly. I'm assuming MZero never meant there to be confusion and perhaps adjusted after I wasn't sure on my N1 scan. Either way, he picked up my hint right away and we ran with it.

N3 - Red. Conclusively said he was Jr. Troopa.

Passed it to him in this post:

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I want you to think with me here, Ctes. Real hard.

Just, having trouble seeing what Red's response would mean. That scan could imply anything. Really, it could go either way, with red being scummate. Or town that was scanned. Or, hell, independent. Perhaps the intention was to leave it vague at first, then he had to commit so he chose scummate red. Again, though, red could be innocent.

Got what I'm thinking?

Read the capitals of the second paragraph.

N4 - holding it for the moment. Curious to see where people point before I do.

As for the hint posts to JC, the first one is topic 4, post 10.

Still sad JC missed that one.

Oh, and Peaf, when you asked the thing about Scum hunting for a traditionally not useful scanner - I held back a bit because I was afraid of hinting, but the reason why is because, in a game where Flavor is important, a Flavor Cop is just a Cop.

I will say, I don't know if it's just the paranoia of needing to consider everyone but me scum, but I really don't like Han walking back the neighborizor claim. I already had problems before with how Ctes just let Han claim information for him without him having any kind of negative reaction to it. The neighborizor claim solved that with having Han being able to talk to him and walk him through it. That seems WAY more likely than him just picking up on hints and claiming the exact perfect info with you.

You being a scum neighborizor would fit that play. You like to always invoke Occam's Razor Han. What's simpler, Ctes picked up on your hints perfectly, didn't object at all to you "confirming" himself when he only has information as a Vanilla, and claims the info on Red perfectly as well? Or you fed him that info in a neighborizor chat?

I'm conflicted. I still think you killing Red makes no sense. There's still the Roleblocker that JC confirmed to consider, so it can't be just Han alone. And then it would be dumb to make the Red play if it's Han/Kirby. I know this is a very wishy-washy post, but I guess the point I'm making is that something crazy had to happen here regardless of Han's alignment. Either you buy Ctes was smart enough to pick up on Han's plans perfectly, or Han playing an incredibly risky scum game by bussing an assassin kill in Red when he was in no danger of being lynched.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Read the capitals of the second paragraph.

There's no way. NO WAY he actually thought to read capital letters only like that. That is absolutely absurd if you're asking us to buy that. >_>

EDumey posted...

There's no way. NO WAY he actually thought to read capital letters only like that. That is absolutely absurd if you're asking us to buy that. >_>

I see no other explanation.

It's definitely quite convoluted to believe, but look at the evidence. Ctes is vanilla, but he and Han knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that Red was Jr. Troopa. Everything Han said lines up.

Honestly, this has got to be one of the most galaxy brain plays I have ever seen in mafia before holy shit

Like, I remember reacting to Han yesterday saying, "Oh, that's so cute how you guys hinted that you were each other's roles when in actuality you were the opposite" and here I am seeing that it was a double bamboozle, and quite the brilliant one at that!

Now, is it plausible that Han could be a scum Flavor Cop? ... Yes. It is very possible a scum Han completely manipulated Ctes. But we know scum has a roleblocker, and if it ain't Dumey, then no way it's Han.

I'm inclined to believe Han is town for now, as there are bigger fish to fry here. If Dumey somehow flips town, though, then suddenly scum Han gains more equity, as I can't think of many other players who would suggest continuously roleblocking me to get town to mislynch itself.

At the same time, deliberately outing scummate Red, who could've earned an EK if he lived into N5, which certainly could have been feasible, would be quite the gambit to go for as scum. It'd be sacrificing a relatively safe option to close out the game for reputation that may or may not hold up so well, especially given the people who are still alive. Plausible, but very high risk, high reward.

Han chose his targets wisely. If he had been trying to hint at me that he was flavor cop, I probably would've blown up his subtlety to extreme proportions lmao

Regardless of Han's alignment, kudos to Ctes for picking up on such clues to the correct conclusion and playing the role of an awesome actor that deceived scum.

Anyway, ##Vote: Dumey
You and I still have to tango, pal. Tell your buddies to stop roleblocking me, would ya?

Just to be clear since I think I got lost in my posts trying to think of possibilities, I think Han is very likely town. I don't think it's wise to think of him as scum until the evidence suggests that Han isn't town, and at this moment in time, such evidence does not exist.

Ha

For the record this is why mass claims are dumb.

I still dont understand why Han did some of the things he did but there is no question this is a town move. Anything else would be suicidal at this point.

masterplum posted...

Ha

For the record this is why mass claims are dumb.

I still dont understand why Han did some of the things he did but there is no question this is a town move. Anything else would be suicidal at this point.

I was tired when I said I felt better about Ctes, and Peaf latched on, so I wanted to be obstinate to not give scum the info. I said I was confirmed because I could prove I scanned JC night 1, but after a bit of time, I just had to double down on saying we were confirmed no matter what, because I really didn't want to claim.

Ctes picked up that I knew his flavor immediately. Then, I sort of guided him into agreeing to let me claim for both of us... The fakeclaim went through variations. There were definitely holes in it!

My goal in hinting that Jr Troopa to Ctes was to draw his attention to it, then ask if he was picking up what I was putting down. Since he already knew I was flavor cop, he probably picked up that I was trying to hint him.

No need to sound so salty, Dumey!

Anyway, here's my plan for today:

I want everyone's game scripts for the remainder of the game (flips could change things, sure, but really there should be enough info).

Once I'm satisfied that people's chips are down, I'll reveal my scan. People can adjust from there, and we can lynch.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Plum -> Hb -> you

Do you know what would even be required for me to be Scum at this point?

I'll give you a hint: no full-time roleblocker meaning Kirby has to be Scum.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I'll give you a hint: no full-time roleblocker meaning Kirby has to be Scum.

Eh?

Why do you think that?

I think it's pretty clearly dumey into ulti

masterplum posted...

Eh?

Why do you think that?

I think it's pretty clearly dumey into ulti

I would encourage you to read the conversation in which the post you are quoting is said.

I don't know which post you are talking about

Posts 169-171

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Posts 169-171

Oh I didn't realize 171 was related to that

Anyway, since we've had no Scumteam meta, let's do it.

Flipped
Ninja Godfather/team ability copier
BP Role Scanner
Slightly more BP each night until assassin

Confirmed Actions
Roleblock on JC
Burn on Cody

We know SBell died to Lea, so he didn't duplicate a team power.

Extrapolating this, there are a few possibilities:

1. There is one Scum remaining, who is a Jack (which can literally only be Kirby)
2. There are two Scum remaining - either one with an EK and one who is a RB, or one who is a Jack.

For me to be Scum, Scum has to have a full time flavor cop (scans on JC and Ctes are proof I have more than one). This means Scum has to have a Jack with RB/Burn, which would have to be Kirby. However, in this instance, you are relying on, again, Scum tossing out an EK that Red absolutely would have gotten had me/Ctes not pointed in his direction. Does this situation sound barmy? It should.

It is also impossible for me to be Scum with Kirby AND Dumey Town because that means that Scum prevented Kirby from shooting Town Dumey, and willingly bussed an EK too. That's minus two night kills. Completely and utterly insane.

tl;dr

It's impossible for me to be Scum without Kirby being my Scummate.

If there is no full-time RB, Kirby is Scum.

We could probably also Flavor meta and say that remaining on Scum's team is Kammy Koopa. If you want a character who causes burning, I think the Piranha Plant from the volcano is the obvious choice. Kammy makes more sense as a RB? Though I can't say I remember individual attacks or anything like that.

So the million dollar question then, is do you think Ulti really was unable to piece this together or is he grasping at mislynches as scum?

masterplum posted...

So the million dollar question then, is do you think Ulti really was unable to piece this together or is he grasping at mislynches as scum?

I'm mostly holding my conclusions.

But for Ulti to be Scum, it means he took a strategy of basically never being consistent in this game once. He'd be able to blame that on COVID brain fog. Or just a "crazy like a fox" way of playing the game. Or just not ever really paying attention that hard.

This is not to support or deny him being Scum - just what would have to be for him to be. It is certainly within the realm of possibility.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

For me to be Scum, Scum has to have a full time flavor cop (scans on JC and Ctes are proof I have more than one).

Is this not what Ben was?

Anyway, my poe and direction hasn't changed much from yesterday.

Lynch Dumey. If Scum, then Ulti or hb is the last one. Leaning towards Ulti, but hb hasn't done himself any favors.

If dumey is town, then it could be both Ulti and hb. If there's only one scum in there, though, then i would suspect plum before Kirby.

My explanation for Kirby and dumey both being town is... misunderstanding of how hero works. Simple as that. Or maybe Kirby is insane backup hero. Either way, Kirby's actions have all made sense to me in context.

I ignored Dumey's post to me last night because i wanted to see Ulti's reaction too.

I was putting it on a little bit thick. I don't really suspect Han at all at this point. But since i mentioned it yesterday i wanted to keep it going a bit.

We still don't know if Ben's role revealed flavor. But remind me, for argument's sake, who did Ben claim to scan? Someone then Red?

I honestly don't remember right now. Was it Ulti?

I do remember that he was screaming about wanting to test plum as he died.

But yeah regardless I fully expect town to have as flavor scanner. Well played with your role, han.

My read weren't great, but I figure playing role well assists with covering that blemish up.

Interestingly, I took a bunch of notes in chat with MZero when I was trying to determine my thoughts N1, and had some good thoughts about Ben being Scum that I just have forgotten about.

Oh! The reason I typed up a post before start of day 2 was because I would have a scan and I'd be too busy at start of day. I don't normally do work at night during games, but I did this game because of my power. I actually felt pretty strongly about JC being Scum N1, so I was ready to come in and call my read on him confirmed and say it was Hangut, but...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

We still don't know if Ben's role revealed flavor. But remind me, for argument's sake, who did Ben claim to scan? Someone then Red?

Ben claimed to scan JC N1.

Also, I completely forgot about Cody getting burned. That very much confirms there's two scum remaining, at least from my perspective since this roleblocker refuses to let me have any fun with my role after I openly threatened to murder somebody ;-;

It could be possible that roleblocker and burn are the same role. I don't think anyone claimed blocked N1, right? We know JC was blocked N2, and I've been blocked every night since then. But N1 is unaccounted for.

But eh, it's difficult to say, and the simpler answer is that they're separate roles. Which definitely completely absolves Han.

Anyway, I don't think my original train of thought for Dumey -> Hb has changed. Though I do want to look back and see Red's interactions now that we know he's scum.

I marked in my notes that Ben was shadowsheeping Peaf on day 1.

Honestly, recalling Red, he often just occasionally poked in with stuff I agreed with, so I guess Scum did a focused thing to just agree with me and let me run amok. Which sort of worked! Intentional or not.

Otherwise, an iso of red should take like 5 minutes, he made less than 50 posts this game I'm sure.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

in my notes that Ben was shadowsheeping Peaf on day 1.

Weird thing to note. I'm curious what your definition of shadow sheeping is and where you saw that.

I don't have a specific note. Just the idea of it. But topic 3, I think. Just general agreeing with you or following you, without it being explicit.

This was my final set of notes for deciding my scan:

I find myself in the unenviable position of thinking JC is most likely Scum, but not being able to argue it per se.
Ctes is snake-in-the-grass, which would be a good scan.
Dumey has all the attention, won't need help to be pursued.
Ben honestly looks pretty bad and I can make the argument without him.
JC I thought looked really bad, but I *could* be wrong, so... with Peaf siding with him, I think I'd need to be extra sure before pushing.

Otherwise, I'm not using a scan on an afk like Ulti or Cody. Cody especially would be boring. I *could* use a scan on someone like SBell, just to check my biases, or Lea, but... eh

After skimming last topic, not sure why I said Ben was shadowsheeping you, Peaf. Might have been in an earlier topic, but iso on phones sucks so I'm not going to bother.

Honestly, I know it's my last day alive in-game, but I don't think we need to stretch it out too long. If everyone checks in (including Ulti readjusting his thoughts for erroneous logic), then I'm good to reveal and us lynch from there. Could even get it done before 9, and maybe start day tomorrow instead of ending it?

Plum, I know you said Dumey - Ulti, but can you extrapolate on that allowing for being incorrect about one or the other?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Plum, I know you said Dumey - Ulti, but can you extrapolate on that allowing for being incorrect about one or the other?

If it's not ulti then it's someone else. Haven't thought through that scenario and I'm honestly not going to waste my time going that far until after your scan result tbh

I completely forgot about the burn when talking about the possibility of scumHan. Han's post was correct then that the only real scenario where he is scum is exactly in the Neighborizor/Jack scum team setup with Kirby. Otherwise the actions just don't line up.

So we can lynch Kirby both because they're scum, and because it clears up that tiny possibility! So much value!

My thoughts for where to go after are somewhere in the Ulti/Plum/HB pool.

My thoughts from previous days lead me to think Ulti is still the most scummy from general play and the Ben connection. But I do generally like what Ulti has done today in keeping up the pressure on Plum.
Plum and HB are both in a similar bucket where they both got early town-wide town reads, and then have coasted since then. Plum has put himself more out there with some of his declarations. HB has largely just asked questions and not done anything risky. I did like HB's question about the inconsistency in what you were claiming, showing he was paying attention at least to what you claimed, but that is a null tell as scum could have been theorizing your role after Ctes' flip as well. I didn't like HB's post earlier trying to push the idea of Ulti/Plum being a pair, when it's really just a one-sided Ulti tunnel. I realize he's just taking himself out of the PoE, but I didn't like the way it was phrased. Very much smelled of "scum sitting back and letting town do the dirty work."

Based purely off of personal reads, I think I would go Ulti > HB > Plum. But honestly, if Ulti turned out to be town, I think I would value his personal read of Plum more and go Plum > HB.

Plum/Ulti are a pair. Both used Bens fake claim as a shield to claim a Star Spirit. Now, its possible either was really telling the truth now that all chips are on the table and no Town role seems to interact with them, but really its just PoE. Im not scum, Hans not scum, Peafs not scum. Only one of Kirby and Dumey can be scum from a logical perspective. Where does that leave us?

Doing this on mobile, but here all the posts from Red where he takes a stance on other players who are currently alive whose alignments are uncertain.

(T2, #224)
"Hb is likely town(Random burst of angerish) and I cant not tunnel this but Lea hasn't irrationally tried to tunnel me for a day and that makes me wary."

(T3, #402)
"##vote: peaf

As you wish then."
(I have no clue who he was referring to. Between his "I missed everything someone catch me up" post and his vote above, only Ben seemed to suggest voting Peaf)

I'd still rather Peaf than Plum >_> Plum hasn't even claimed

(T4, #143)
"Anyway, basic part of the end of the last day. I think we can reasonably assume Peaf hammers there if hes scum. I think its been mentioned to death at this point, but its a reasonable assumption. Follow that, we can reasonably assume scum likely had no preference with two vanilla claims on the table. So we can probably safely townpile plum as well."

(T6, #21)
"hb has been real quiet today but every time I go poking around in day 1 I feel pretty good about having him in my town pile. Probably not going in that direction, death."

(T6, #27)
"Also simple sort of the game right now to me.

(Probable scum here)
Ctes
Death
Dumey
Kirby
Sultan

(Cant be scum together. If so good fine gg)
Han
JC

(Linked fairly hard now)
Ben
Ulti

-comfortable town line-
Hb

Cody

Peaf
Plum"

(T7, #77)
"Hb had a short little snap back post back on day 1 that felt very town to me. Hes not coming out of my townpile unless poe or something really says I have to do otherwise but i trust that read."

(T8, #320)
"Ben worthless.

Kirby questionable existence. IfTown confirms dumey scum.

Plum snd Hb day 2 i think is town.

Jc fits town role reqs. Hard to see as scum

Ctes han linked today enough for trust

Ulti i have little recognition of him doing anything

I'm forgetting at least someone but meeting here starting back up soon."
(The player he forgot about was Peaf)

(T9, #292)
"Kirby
Dumey

Han
Ctes

Hb
Peaf
Plum

Ulti

Anyway, this is basic game state. I assume its reasonable to think 3 scum remaining here.

We know Kirby/Dumey contains 1 scum(Dumey?). Theoretically they could both be scum together but that'd frankly be beyond the game of anyone flipped scum or remaining alive I think.

It figures han/ctes are irrevocably linked at this point. In order for them to be scum they are the whole remaining team. Likelihood of this...not great. So they are safe.

That leaves hb/peaf/plum/ulti. We need 2 scum here. This is where I have to be wrong somewhere. Peaf and plum both look pretty good end of day 1, though honestly I don't think much of either of them after. I try to at least peg 1 person as town d1(And my success rate is actually pretty good), so I kind of trust hb as town still. And then Ulti is probably just last scum no matter what."

UltimaterializerX posted...

Please tell me you scanned me (or Plum) so town can actually win.

Also if you want to know why Im paranoid of you, Ive needled you this entire game and you havent lynched me yet or even really tried. Even though it would have been very easy for you to do, because I hadnt played well until yesterday. I feel like Town Han is a counter puncher at heart, so its kind of weird.

I have literally addressed this 10 times at this point, and if you're going to continue to ignore that, then please just stop signing up for games.

I DID point suspicion at you. I DID address your completely nonsensical attitude. Just because you literally haven't read the game doesn't mean I haven't done what you think I should have done.

And additionally? I know you don't know or are pretending not to know, but we lynched scum days 3 and 4. And we lynched scum day 4 off of my scan.

"I think Town Han would ignore his cop scan and lynch me instead"
- Ulti, 2023

Me this game:

"Ulti not blind following me is weird"
"Ulti ignoring me is weird"
"Ulti flipping from Townclearing me to sussing me is weird"
"Ulti Ulti flipping from sussing me to saying I'm his number 1 town read is weird"

Anyway, Ulti, you still ignored everything I said about reassessing based on erroneous logic, so if you're going to keep ignoring me, then fine, just don't bother. We'll solve the game still.