Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 400: Pad Taiwan's Defense Budget

(+) Yeah! (+)

Took 45 minutes from the end of the roll, but here's the gavel.

Speaker Vote (Ballot 2) Results:

Jeffries (D) - 212 (48.85%)
McCarthy (R) - 203 (46.77%)
Jordan (R) - 19 (4.38%)

Votes Cast: 434
Number Needed for Majority: 218

And on we go. They're doing nominations again.

Are the rules seriously just to keep voting until something changes?

KamikazePotato posted...

Are the rules seriously just to keep voting until something changes?

What, you thought they'd do something sensible like ranked choice voting? Hell no! This is 'murrica! First past the post, baby!

KamikazePotato posted...

Are the rules seriously just to keep voting until something changes?

Yep.

Voting for Speaker is literally the first thing they have to do. Literally the Clerk running proceedings here is the clerk put in place by Pelosi because the votes for the House officers takes place after the Speaker vote. As does the House Rules which the rest of the session will go by. Hell, the new members aren't even sworn in yet because that is also after this vote.

As mentioned, on two occasions they caved and changed it to plurality, but in both cases they were 60+ ballots in. The record in ballots is 133. In time, I think it's 2 months.

noms over. again.

Same 3 as last time, just different people nomming them. This time Roy nommed Jordan.

Ballot 3 voting has begun.

Thorn posted...

Hell, the new members aren't even sworn in yet because that is also after this vote

This seems backwards.

IMO they'll break if the tallies are the exact same this time (212/203/19 with all 19 "other" votes cast for Jordan). It'll be time for more backroom meetings at that point.

Maniac64 posted...

This seems backwards.

I agree, but I guess this is how they do it. =/

Jordan reaches 5 votes on Ballot 3 at the same spot he did on Ballot 2 (Cloud). Should be it for this one too. There have been a few no responses to name calls but I imagine they'll get dragged back in when they get to the end like last time.

Up: We've got a McCarthy to Jordan flip.
Up2: And as expected Jordan is now at 20.

https://twitter.com/sarahgroh/status/1610323954673094657

Surely nothing bad could ever come of this.
The GOP Congress - where the minimum of restrictions in a courthouse or convert venue are too much to handle!

Again, awaiting the gavel - but because that has taken 30+ minutes each time I'll just say for now the tl;dr is same as the last vote except we had one more flip to Jordan to make it 20 defectors.

If McCarthy vs MAGA is this much of a shitshow, imagine Trump vs DeSantis lol

Speaker Vote (Ballot 3) Results:

Jeffries (D) - 212 (48.85%)
McCarthy (R) - 202 (46.54%)
Jordan (R) - 20 (4.61%)

Votes Cast: 434
Number Needed for Majority: 218

So McCarthy loses one vote to Jordan as the only change from Ballot 2. Immediately after, the House voted to adjourn until noon tomorrow by voice vote.

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1610408754721218561

LOL. McCarthy sold out for the most predictable abandonment of all time.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1610385888093130753

Guys, guys, Lindsey Graham wants you to know that all this in-fighting could lead to horrible, absolutely terrible things like...

*checks notes*

...representative democracy?

Isn't it 218 votes, anyway?

His eyesight is bad at his age, 3 looks a lot like 8.

I hate the man, but this is fantastic

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1610462972618604545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

This is like when your two childhood bullies fight each other

Peace___Frog posted...

His eyesight is bad at his age, 3 looks a lot like 8.

This is a tremendous line if used in a completely different context!

KamikazePotato posted...

Isn't it 218 votes, anyway?

It's a majority of votes cast. If everyone shows up (434, we've got one vacancy atm) like they did yesterday, then yeah 218. If some members vote present or no show the vote the threshold would be lower. So if 34 of them voted present, there'd only be 400 votes and a majority would be 201.

However, and I'm likely extending too much benefit of the doubt here to Graham, he may be suggesting that they'd move to switch to plurality vote if McCarthy can pass Jeffries. They can't do that now because Jeffries has been the plurality winner in each of the first three ballots but I can see him thinking he's shrewd in thinking that as soon as that's not the case they can just change the rules to allow it. The Speaker vote was changed to plurality twice in history, both in 60+ ballot marathons back in the 1840s and 1850s.

Only problem is I'm thinking you'd need a majority of votes cast to actually adopt that rules change and I can't imagine why in the world you'd get a majority to do that knowing it would guarantee a McCarthy win when McCarthy can't actually get that majority to vote for him because it'd mean getting some Dems or Never Kevin people to let them do it.

And Ballot 4 voting is underway. Instead of Jordan, this time the HFC nominated Byron Donalds.

And already 4 votes down again lol

nominate deez nutz

Seems to be following the exact same vote pattern as the other ballots. Donalds gets his 5th vote in the same spot Biggs and Jordan did in the first three.

Not totally clear the total number of reps in the room (an earlier quorum count was 351 but I think they may be at or near full attendance by now) but that should be another McCarthy loss. CSPAN calling it, at least, and they probably have a better handle on the count of reps in the room.

Speaker Vote (Ballot 4) Results:

Jeffries (D) - 212 (48.96%)
McCarthy (R) - 201 (46.42%)
Donalds (R) - 20 (4.62%)
Present - 1

Votes Cast: 433 (+ 1 Present)
Number Needed for Majority: 217

Early reports before they began suggested McCarthy wanted to adjourn immediately today instead of having any votes but that Democrats were whipping against a motion to adjourn and McCarthy couldn't get the votes to adjourn from just the Republicans so here we found ourselves. Almost the same as Ballot 3 just the HFC chose to put up Byron Donalds instead of Jim Jordan today. Donalds was the defector from Ballot 3 who brought the anti-McCarthy votes from 19 to 20. Had a last second present there. All but one member voted the first time they went through the roll and when they did their customary, "Now repeating the names of everyone who missed it the first time" the lone missing voter (Spartz) went Present. Could be a sign of McCarthy's support crumbling a bit.

But it looks like either we don't have the votes to adjourn or they want Round 5 because nominations have started again.

What would be the grounds under which to adjourn? Isn't this taking care of this literally their first and only responsibility right now?

Forceful_Dragon posted...

What would be the grounds under which to adjourn? Isn't this taking care of this literally their first and only responsibility right now?

That they want to go home LOL.

The only two things they can do right now is vote for Speaker or motion to adjourn.

Yesterday was 3 attempts to elect a Speaker followed by them adjourning until noon today. Adjourning would be giving up on the rest of the day and setting the time to resume.

For what it's worth, adjourning would probably be more productive. The Republicans could actually have some backroom meetings to negotiate some kind of compromise instead of standing around for pointless roll call votes. If electing a Speaker is their main job then adjourning is more likely to make it happen.

This is why neither of the groups opposed to McCarthy will let that happen, of course.

Looks like the 5th round will go like the others

There's no way they're gonna resolve this today it's just until they have the votes to say "we're done for the day meet back tomorrow" I think they're in an infinite loop of voting LOL.

This is absolutely fascinating to watch.

I assume it eventually ends with enough of the GOP falling in line, but how long will this go on for before then is the question.

What's your favorite game about a time loop? Mine's the US House of Representatives

What does it even mean if by some miracle Jeffries clinches this due to absent/present votes? It's still a majority R House, it's not like the anti-McCarthy Rs are suddenly going to start voting left.

If this goes to a ninth vote, it'll be the most contentious house speaker vote since the Civil War era.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

What does it even mean if by some miracle Jeffries clinches this due to absent/present votes? It's still a majority R House, it's not like the anti-McCarthy Rs are suddenly going to start voting left.

I'm pretty sure he'd have control over what gets brought to the floor to get voted on which means that impeachement votes would never happen.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

What does it even mean if by some miracle Jeffries clinches this due to absent/present votes? It's still a majority R House, it's not like the anti-McCarthy Rs are suddenly going to start voting left.

I think that Jeffries could at least ignore bullshit votes from the Republican side. It'll still be complete gridlock but at least the House won't be voting on impeaching Biden over and over.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

What does it even mean if by some miracle Jeffries clinches this due to absent/present votes? It's still a majority R House, it's not like the anti-McCarthy Rs are suddenly going to start voting left.

Depends on the moderate Rs. My guess is that basically the only votes that would happen would be must-pass stuff like the debt ceiling.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

What does it even mean if by some miracle Jeffries clinches this due to absent/present votes? It's still a majority R House, it's not like the anti-McCarthy Rs are suddenly going to start voting left.

Not much, honestly. It would just be even more embarrassing for them than this already is.

I say this assuming they'd vacate the chair and force more Speaker votes. If you mean by some weird miracle he remained Speaker than it'd actually be kind of helpful. Speaker sets the agenda for the House. Generally speaking, the House only votes on what the Speaker lets them. It's just that unlike the Senate there's a way around that but it's rarely used. But in this bizarro timeline with a Jeffries speakership he could have the House vote on stuff the Senate passes that some of the GOP in vulnerable districts like the NY Reps might end up voting for.

Also would be a lot stressful ensuring that funding the government and raising the debt ceiling actually got votes instead of having to rely on a discharge petition to circumvent the Speaker.

So how long is it until the House needs to pass a government funding bill or a debt ceiling increase? Those are the only things the House really needs to do, so technically they could keep this stalemate going until then if the GOP can't get their shit together.

That said, those same advantages I outline for a hypothetical Jeffries speakership could also potentially exist if there were some coalition Speaker solution where Dems agreed to vote for a moderate Republican to break the stalemate.

That said, you'd have to trust they'd hold their end of the bargain and I mean... would you?

Xeybozn posted...

So how long is it until the House needs to pass a government funding bill or a debt ceiling increase? Those are the only things the House really needs to do, so technically they could keep this stalemate going until then if the GOP can't get their shit together.

Funding the government? September, I think. The HFC is fucking pissed about it. When they nominate someone in these speaker votes they get to give a little speech and almost all of them have spent most of the time ranting how pissed they are that McConnell allowed the last Congress to fund the government in the lame duck instead of letting them force a crisis over with their new House majority and painting McCarthy as part of that same group.

Debt ceiling would come first, I think. Actual day depends on stuff because the government can pull some tricks to buy time and actually had to last time but I think sometime in the first half of the year.

Apparently a 58 year old House Democrat is familiar with Leeroy Jenkins??

https://twitter.com/arthurdelaneyhp/status/1610699981287047174?s=21

https://twitter.com/mepfuller/status/1610695300225839105?s=21

I assume we've got another 30 minute wait for the gavel to make it official, but unofficially Ballot 5 was the exact same as Ballot 4. First time everything was completely unchanged.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Apparently a 58 year old House Democrat is familiar with Leeroy Jenkins??

https://twitter.com/arthurdelaneyhp/status/1610699981287047174?s=21

https://twitter.com/mepfuller/status/1610695300225839105?s=21

Is he REALLY familiar with it? Its not exactly fitting

Jakyl25 posted...

Is he REALLY familiar with it? Its not exactly fitting

It's close enough that I immediately thought this was what he was doing when I heard it

Not surprised at all - everyone's a nerd these days. We won, boys, for better or worse.

Jared Huffman won my vote

Thorn posted...

Not much, honestly. It would just be even more embarrassing for them than this already is.

I say this assuming they'd vacate the chair and force more Speaker votes. If you mean by some weird miracle he remained Speaker than it'd actually be kind of helpful. Speaker sets the agenda for the House. Generally speaking, the House only votes on what the Speaker lets them. It's just that unlike the Senate there's a way around that but it's rarely used. But in this bizarro timeline with a Jeffries speakership he could have the House vote on stuff the Senate passes that some of the GOP in vulnerable districts like the NY Reps might end up voting for.

Also would be a lot stressful ensuring that funding the government and raising the debt ceiling actually got votes instead of having to rely on a discharge petition to circumvent the Speaker.

I rapidly went through three thought processes when reading this.

My first viewpoint was that, in lieu of actual progress, the best thing the Dems could do would be to keep putting forward helpful motions that get denied. It does make the GOP look bad to voters, if only a little bit.

Then I wondered about how doing so would just make the government function like a continuous clown show. Eroding the stability of an already-crumbling system, one grain of sand down the hourglass at a time.

Then I remembered that there was an insurrection that went unpunished, so what does it matter lmao

So, the HFC wants to allow a one person call for a Speaker ouster vote. That seems like their big hang up according to CNN.

Isnt allowing that just going to put us back in this situation again, if the Ds wanted maximum chaos and voted with the 20 HFC members?

Speaker Vote (Ballot 5) Results:

Jeffries (D) - 212 (48.96%)
McCarthy (R) - 201 (46.42%)
Donalds (R) - 20 (4.62%)
Present - 1

Votes Cast: 433 (+ 1 Present)
Number Needed for Majority: 217

Exact same as the last one. First time a ballot has gone completely unchanged from the previous one. Ballot 6 beginning now.