Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 400: Pad Taiwan's Defense Budget

(+) Yeah! (+)

It's the American way.

As gamers, we're all familiar with the idea of losing over and over again when you only have to win once. I never had a no-death run in Super Meat Boy, but I've broken 100+% on it a few times. Ole' Kevin's just trying to unlock an achievement in this regard.

As a non-gamer, however...McCarthy doesn't understand he softlocked.

If there were 6 or 7 defectors I think this would be a good strategy. It would be politically embarrassing to drag this on forever and someone could flip any time

with 20?

It suddenly becomes much harder to say who feels more pressure

Oh, I didn't know people actually liked the results posts. I had been thinking of stopping them going forward and we'll see how present I can be for them depending on how long this drags out but I guess I'll try to carry on.

Catching up on what they did after I bounced - they actually had two more ballots, 10 and 11. Just the Never Kevins moving around.

Speaker Vote (Ballot 10) Results:

Jeffries (D) - 212 (49.07%)
McCarthy (R) - 200 (46.30%)
Donalds (R) - 13 (3.01%)
Hern (R) - 7 (1.62%)
Present - 1

Votes Cast: 432 (+ 1 Present)
Number Needed for Majority: 217

Biggs, Crane, Harris, and Rosendale join Boebert, Brecheen, and Gaetz on Hern to increase his total to 7.

~~~

Speaker Vote (Ballot 11) Results:

Jeffries (D) - 212 (49.07%)
McCarthy (R) - 200 (46.30%)
Donalds (R) - 12 (2.78%)
Hern (R) - 7 (1.62%)
Trump (R) - 1 (0.23%)
Present - 1

Votes Cast: 432 (+ 1 Present)
Number Needed for Majority: 217

Gaetz jumps over to Trump again while Good (VA) jumps to Hern from Donalds.

~~~

With us assured a 12th ballot and 4th day at the very least, this Speaker election has officially moved into a tie for 5th longest in terms of number of ballots (1821 was decided on the 12th ballot) and an outright 4th in terms of time elapsed as all but 3 were resolved on or before 3 days.

Following that they voted to adjourn. Burchett was the only Republican to join all 212 Dems in voting against adjourning. (Final vote was 219-213 to adjourn.) A bit more on Burchett because his vote against adjourning struck me as curious seeing how he's a McCarthy voter. Turns out he released a letter to Biden asking for federal agencies to work with congresspeople-elect even if they're not sworn in so I guess that's his angle. Well, we'll be back at noon I guess.

It's the gift that keeps on giving

At what point will McCarthy drop out and let the other 200 members figure out a replacement?

Or what will it take to change the rules for plurality? Does it need to be unanimous or something because I don't think the Democrats will oppose it in the off-chance they get their speaker elected.

Apparently McCarthy gained some ground during this vote? I'm not watching but I've heard at least two of "the 20" have voted for him.

Only the two most contentious speaker elections in US history were decided by plurality (the ones that took like 60 and 120 rounds). I can't imagine that being agreed to here.

Ballot 12 in progress.

Gaetz nominates Jim Jordan, Boebert nominates Hern.

McCarthy got some of the HFC over to him: Bishop, Breechen, Cloud, Clyde, Donalds have flipped so far.

Gosar missed first call so not sure about him.

So, 12 of the defectors in and 6 are still against, 5 have flipped, and Gosar. We'll be going to Ballot 13 but the margin is down.

Up: Another flip to McCarthy. So 6 of the 13 we've gone gotten through so far.

McCarthy has no morals and will eventually agree to all the insurrectionist demands. I don't think that's ever been in question.

I just think he never actually expected them to back him into a corner and is now scrambling to put the pieces back together.

charmander6000 posted...

Or what will it take to change the rules for plurality?

I don't think there is a way for the House to change their rules without a Speaker. The historical cases where that happened were before the modern rule changes that gave the Speaker all the power to set the House's agenda.

14/21 flipped in total:
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1611427259574779904?s=21

Have to say that Im surprised he got that many. Not enough, though!

It'll probably be 30-45 minutes until it goes official but we will be going a 13th Ballot.

13 of the 20 Never Kevins flipped with 7 holdouts remaining. McCarthy will end the round with the most votes for the first time.

That's discouraging, I was hoping this would carry through the weekend but it seems like it might get resolved today?

I wonder what the 14 were offered to flip.

It wont be resolved today. Afaik two of Kevins voters are out of town and Im very confident that at least three of the seven holdouts are ungettable (Gaetz, Good, and Boebert).

LordoftheMorons posted...

It wont be resolved today. Afaik two of Kevins voters are out of town and Im very confident that at least three of the seven holdouts are ungettable (Gaetz, Good, and Boebert).

Only one by my count. But that hinges on CSPAN's unofficial count being correct. They've got 432 votes in but Jeffries is at 211 so one has to be a Dem. Again, presuming they are correct.

Oh, maybe I misread and the second out-of-towner was a Dem. In that case I guess maybe its technically possible for Kevin to clinch it today, but put me down for doubt

He now has enough votes for when they inevitably change to plurality though.

Speaker Vote (Ballot 12) Results:

McCarthy (R) - 213 (49.42%)
Jeffries (D) - 211 (48.96%)
Jordan (R) - 4 (0.93%)
Hern (R) - 3 (0.70%)

Votes Cast: 431
Number Needed for Majority: 216

Remaining Never Kevins: Biggs, Boebert, Crane, Gaetz, Good (VA), Harris, and Rosendale.

Rosendale trolled with his vote going "KEVIN... *looks around the chamber with a smug look for a good five seconds* ...Hern." Think I heard the CSPAN guy say the missing Dem has arrived so he should be there now and LotM was likely correct. (CSPAN's unofficial count had one extra McCarthy vote which wasn't there in the official results above)

Nominations for Ballot 13 beginning now.

FFDragon posted...

He now has enough votes for when they inevitably change to plurality though.

I'm not sure since it only happened twice and both before the Civil War but I kinda suspect it'd take a majority to agree to change to plurality lol.

Thorn posted...

Rosendale trolled with his vote going "KEVIN... *looks around the chamber with a smug look for a good five seconds* ...Hern."

its even funnier the 5th time!!!

Oh FFS.

This "nomination" speech has included accusing Fauci of funding the creation of COVID in the Wuhan lab conspiracies, "the previous Congress investigated a president for wrongdoing in Ukraine. This Congress will also investigate the president for wrongdoing with Ukraine."

This one might be it. There was no third candidate officially entered into nomination by the holdouts. They can still vote Never Kevin but this one feels different.

Edit/Update: I may have spoke too soon. First 3 defectors all voted Jordan anyway. He'd have to run the table on the last 4 I think and that includes Gaetz lol.
Up 2: Yep, the first 5 Never Kevins held firm so get hyped for Ballot 14.

TheManaSword posted...

its even funnier the 5th time!!!

And people say conservatives have no sense of humor

Peace___Frog posted...

And people say conservatives have no sense of humor

Next joke gonna be "I vote for Donalds but I identify as someone who voted for McCarthy"

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1611434017064108032?s=21

JFC

Five of the holdouts have voted against McCarthy again so hes gonna lose another ballot, but he flipped Andy Harris this time.

Yep. And Rosendale votes Jordan so 6 of the 7 kept holding out.

Speaker Vote (Ballot 13) Results:

McCarthy (R) - 214 (49.54%)
Jeffries (D) - 212 (49.07%)
Jordan (R) - 6 (1.39%)

Votes Cast: 432
Number Needed for Majority: 217

Harris leaves Never Kevin for Kevin. Dems back at full strength (the rep who missed Ballot 13 was in surgery this morning). First time both candidates are over 49%. CSPAN guy saying that McCarthy wants to finish this today and possibly fly in their two missing members to help get that done. If they get both those guys in they would still need to flip 2 more of the remaining Never Kevin group. If not, then they need 3 flips.

Motion to adjourn until 10 PM. Opinion of the chair is that the Nays have it but an official vote was requested. Looks like they get to vote electronically for this.

Update: Motion to adjourn passes 220-212, party line vote. We're back at 10 PM.

Gaetz apparently threatened to resign from Congress if Dems reverse course and vote for a moderate Republican.

Don't threaten me with a good time and all, but also it may be the worst bluff I've ever heard in my life.

Why in earth would he think that would deter the Dems?

Most Republicans probably want Gaetz to resign.

Guess who Elons unbanning on J6:

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1611484625230090255?s=21

No?

And no?

Ballot 14 in progress.

Biggs votes Jordan
Boebert votes Present
Update: Crane votes Biggs
Up3: Gaetz doesn't answer, he'll be returned to after they get through the list once
Up2: Good (VA) votes Jordan
Up3: Rosendale votes Biggs

Welp I guess I was wrong that Boebert was unmovable! I think Crane was one of the ones Kevin thought he could flip, though

I'm trying to do the math quickly and I think McCarthy has 216 votes assuming they flew in his two missing ones.

The magic number sits at 217. He'd need to either flip one of Gaetz (who did not answer when first called) or Rosendale OR have them both vote present to reduce the threshold to 216.

Yeah, that's correct

Though Gosar is also holding his vote for the end this time for some reason...

masterplum posted...

No?

And no?

my bad.

Rosendale voted for Biggs, so McCarthy now needs Gaetz to put him over the top.

And with Rosendale voting Biggs, it's literally down to Gaetz. If he votes for McCarthy, he wins. If he votes against him or present then we're going another ballot.

I got the feeling when he didn't answer this was a showboat maneuver. Guess we'll find out which way.

Gaetz votes Present and the GOP started clapping but that's not good enough I don't think?

Yeah unless they get someone else to switch their vote to at least present he's one short.

CSPAN's camera showing McCarthy getting up from his seat and going to talk to Gaetz (and Boebert maybe since they're sitting together) I wonder if him voting present was a swerve. Or they just screwed up the math and though exactly half was good when you need 50% + 1 lol

Mike Rogers of AL was apparently held back from lunging at Gaetz

Speaker Vote (Ballot 14) Results:

McCarthy (R) - 216 (50.00%)
Jeffries (D) - 212 (49.07%)
Jordan (R) - 2 (0.46%%)
Biggs (R) - 2 (0.46%)
Present - 2

Votes Cast: 432 (+2 Present)
Number Needed for Majority: 217

Biggs votes for Jordan
Boebert votes Present
Crane votes Biggs
Good (VA) votes Jordan
Rosendale votes Biggs
Gaetz does not respond on the first pass, votes Present when they return to him at the end.

This was truly bizarre. When Gaetz voted Present, the GOP side of the chamber started clapping and cheering. They've been doing that for every flip but given the scenario where his vote literally ensured McCarthy's failure I have to think they misunderstood the situation. For most of them who probably didn't do the math maybe they thought Present was good here but someone had to have done it beforehand to realize it wasn't... right? That exactly 50% isn't enough here you need 50% + 1? The chamber went from GOP cheering to eerily quiet for a good 5-10 minutes, quieter than I've heard these past 4 days. C-SPAN cameras showed McCarthy rising from his seat and walking up the aisles to where Gaetz was sitting around the time the silence first descended and talking, fingers were pointed. Without being able to hear this I have to think Gaetz went back on his word or something but I genuinely don't know if you can rule out they fucked up the math - it sounds insane to think that but this was the most surreal 5-10 minutes I've seen in the many hours of watching this infinite loop.

GOP moves to adjourn until Monday. Opinion of the chair is that the nays have it. A count has been called. Electronic vote will decide it in about 15 minutes. I expect them to adjourn.

Update: Not so fast? This adjourn vote is getting spicy. It's all electronic voting but I think it fails with 5 GOP nos and we've got 4 right now.

If it was actually a math mistake, 1) lmfao and 2) youd think theyd it vote to adjourn and just fix the math with the next vote?

Kevin just switched to a no to adjourn... looks like he thinks he has the votes now

oh my god we had some mario/crono ii shit go down

Okay, so, it was 216-216 with the vote timer at 0:04. Then it got to 218-215 Adjourn at 0:00

But, and this is typically for these electronic votes... votes can still be moved after that for some godforsaken reason... and it tied up to 217-217... and then a tide of GOP flips back to staying came in. Currently 200-234 staying.

Hasn't been called by the clerk but l m f a o

Looks like Kevin got Gaetz... wonder what his price was

Did he, though? Like, how can they be sure this isn't Lucy pulling the football away?

Ballot 15 in progress.

Biggs votes Present.

If everyone else holds their votes from last time, that will let McCarthy win. (But if Gaetz votes for someone else... lol)