Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 397: Rishi Rich

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Xeybozn
11/08/22 6:56:39 PM
#203:


On second thought, a GOP Congress could stop inflation more easily than I thought. All they have to do is refuse to raise the debt ceiling next year; the resulting global depression should reduce demand enough that inflation would go way down.

Now if voters think that's a good idea, they deserve to be called stupid. But let's not act like Republicans couldn't stop inflation if they win.

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red_sox_777
11/08/22 7:19:24 PM
#204:


LightningStrikes posted...
Tax cuts are an inflationary move. Just ask Liz Truss.

This is a fairly predictable result. Printing money is inflationary. Government spending = tax revenue + government borrowing + printing money - government savings (which are almost always zero). If you lower tax revenue and you do not lower total spending by as much, then government borrowing or printing money go up. Since the government's ability to borrow is based on its ability to pay back loans, which is based on tax revenue, really mainly printing money will go up. And that is inflationary.

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LordoftheMorons
11/08/22 7:37:37 PM
#205:


Walker is substantially underperforming Kemp so far:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590138583867920384

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LightningStrikes
11/08/22 7:38:24 PM
#206:


Let me be the first to say lol, Florida.

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Thorn
11/08/22 7:39:50 PM
#207:


LightningStrikes posted...
Let me be the first to say lol, Florida.
Panhandle hasn't closed voting yet I believe so we haven't even gotten started yet there. (Panhandle coming in was basically the moment in 2016 where it became clear we were in the bad place)

it's gonna be bad

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Sorozone
11/08/22 7:40:56 PM
#208:


Florida is a lost cause at this point. It's veering far too right to be considered a swing state anymore. Miami Dade is a wtf situation right now.

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LightningStrikes
11/08/22 7:53:23 PM
#209:


On the bright side, this sends a clear message to Democrats in 2024: ignore Florida. Focus on the upper midwest, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Texas.

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SirChris
11/08/22 7:55:41 PM
#210:


I think Georgia is looking OK so far for the senate. Atlanta's county has remained uncounted for a bit now (at 63% for awhile) but Warnock has opened up the vote lead a bit and Savannah's county isn't counted at all yet.

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masterplum
11/08/22 7:56:47 PM
#211:


Not looking like a red wave

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Thorn
11/08/22 7:57:54 PM
#212:


I'm just nervously reading election twitter and drawing no conclusion either way.

Just really want to see how NY governor race went for my own personal sanity. Like you wouldn't think that'd be a thing but I just have to be sure.

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KamikazePotato
11/08/22 7:58:00 PM
#213:


https://mobile.twitter.com/DashaBurns/status/1590085064787755008

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SirChris
11/08/22 7:58:01 PM
#214:


Oh, there's half of chatham county.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/08/22 7:58:40 PM
#215:


Where's the best place to follow results?

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Thorn
11/08/22 8:00:20 PM
#216:


I'd guess NYT because our great and terrible deity The Needle has returned but my mental health can't take that right now. >_>

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UshiromiyaEva
11/08/22 8:01:32 PM
#217:


How about the latest that doesn't want me to pay them?

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Yesmar_
11/08/22 8:03:10 PM
#218:


I could actually imagine a scenario where Dems have a good night overall, but Hochul still loses. NYC turnout has been pretty bad for a while, IIRC, which worries me.

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Thorn
11/08/22 8:04:31 PM
#219:


Yesmar_ posted...
I could actually imagine a scenario where Dems have a good night overall, but Hochul still loses. NYC turnout has been pretty bad for a while, IIRC, which worries me.
don't you dare speak this evil into existence in front of me

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LordoftheMorons
11/08/22 8:09:02 PM
#220:


https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1590148180276301825

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SirChris
11/08/22 8:11:42 PM
#221:


So the encouraging thing for me is that Warnock has a nice little lead and there's a lot of votes still out in 4-5 of the biggest blue counties in Georgia. So yeah not a lock but but Warnock has 800k votes atm and I penciled in 2.1-2.2m as a good market to shoot for to win outright and he has a lot of big blue counties left to flood.

(obv I am notan expert but I did some quick glancing at 2020 poll data lol)


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LordoftheMorons
11/08/22 8:13:13 PM
#222:


Dems picked up MA and MD govs

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UshiromiyaEva
11/08/22 8:16:00 PM
#223:


I think it's safe to say that even if they win both, this night is not shaping up to be the overwhelming red wave the Rs were hoping for.

A red spring shower.

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masterplum
11/08/22 8:17:47 PM
#224:


I for one am shocked former Republican Charlie Crist didnt enthuse Florida democrats

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red_sox_777
11/08/22 8:18:00 PM
#225:


Anyone know what time trends we should expect tonight? Mail in voting has completely changed the old trends and there may be changes since 2020 as well based on the order in which votes are counted.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/08/22 8:20:21 PM
#226:


I've seen at least two people called the first gen z in congress.

I'm curious which one was technically called first!

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masterplum
11/08/22 8:22:14 PM
#227:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
I think it's safe to say that even if they win both, this night is not shaping up to be the overwhelming red wave the Rs were hoping for.

A red spring shower.

Good news for 2024

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masterplum
11/08/22 8:24:05 PM
#228:


Fetterman winning the Mail vote against Oz 92-6 is hilarious to me.

Republicans are one strong storm from being completely roasted.

Pray for bad weather in 2024

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Xeybozn
11/08/22 8:24:55 PM
#229:


Question for people who usually follow Election Night stuff: Does it take way longer to count votes in blue-leaning place everywhere, or is it just a Virginia thing? I was checking the results for my district (VA 7th) and just about every vote is counted except for in the one blue county. Seems kinda weird to me

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UshiromiyaEva
11/08/22 8:26:30 PM
#230:


masterplum posted...
Fetterman winning the Mail vote against Oz 92-6 is hilarious to me.

Holy fucking shit.

That's so bad I'm shocked it isn't an error.

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LordoftheMorons
11/08/22 8:26:32 PM
#231:


Xeybozn posted...
Question for people who usually follow Election Night stuff: Does it take way longer to count votes in blue-leaning place everywhere, or is it just a Virginia thing? I was checking the results for my district (VA 7th) and just about every vote is counted except for in the one blue county. Seems kinda weird to me
Totally depends on the state. For VA specifically I know that NoVA is always slow compared to the rest of the state.

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Thorn
11/08/22 8:26:55 PM
#232:


Xeybozn posted...
Does it take way longer to count votes in blue-leaning place everywhere, or is it just a Virginia thing?
Not everywhere but it also isn't uncommon. Aside from just having a lot more votes to process since it's typically urban/high-population centers there's also occasionally stupid rules like being forbidden from beginning to count early/absentee votes until the polls close even though they could have done so earlier in the day.

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red_sox_777
11/08/22 8:27:18 PM
#233:


Xeybozn posted...
Question for people who usually follow Election Night stuff: Does it take way longer to count votes in blue-leaning place everywhere, or is it just a Virginia thing? I was checking the results for my district (VA 7th) and just about every vote is counted except for in the one blue county. Seems kinda weird to me

Virginia has been that way for many years. It always looks super red early on and then there is a flood of blue votes at the end. The NY Times percentage of precincts reporting number also hasn't been a great metric for Virginia historically, I think because of unequal numbers of voters at different precincts. There's been times in past elections when based on the margin and the % remaining, it looked like it was just about mathematically impossible for the Republican to lose and yet they did, and comfortably.

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red_sox_777
11/08/22 8:27:37 PM
#234:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Holy fucking shit.

That's so bad I'm shocked it isn't an error.

The mail vote in PA was like this in 2020 too.

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Grimlyn
11/08/22 8:28:32 PM
#235:


it's a pretty common phenomenon (but not a rule), red regions are smaller towns that take less work to count than blue cities

can't forget the 2020 election Stop The Count chants because the early results were much better before the full counts came in.

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red_sox_777
11/08/22 8:29:45 PM
#236:


Also that 92-6 is Philadelphia County. That's by far the bluest in the state.

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LordoftheMorons
11/08/22 8:30:06 PM
#237:


Grimlyn posted...
it's a pretty common phenomenon (but not a rule), red regions are smaller towns that take less work to count than blue cities

can't forget the 2020 election Stop The Count chants because the early results were much better before the full counts came in.
It was all going so well for Trump before those "massive dumps"...!

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Thorn
11/08/22 8:32:43 PM
#238:


Thorn posted...
Not everywhere but it also isn't uncommon. Aside from just having a lot more votes to process since it's typically urban/high-population centers there's also occasionally stupid rules like being forbidden from beginning to count early/absentee votes until the polls close even though they could have done so earlier in the day.
Adding to this since it just crossed my mind, also Republicans sued to make Philadelphia (and only Philly) go through a process that will slow their ability to count the vote that no other place in the state has to undergo.

So, you know, the usual fuckery.

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LightningStrikes
11/08/22 8:39:31 PM
#239:


https://twitter.com/ByYourLogic/status/1590154761562882048

Uh-oh

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UshiromiyaEva
11/08/22 8:41:41 PM
#240:


I'd vote Republican before I voted Keyblade.

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LordoftheMorons
11/08/22 8:42:21 PM
#241:


Does that mean Xehanort is in Congress

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red_sox_777
11/08/22 8:42:59 PM
#242:


Does Madison Cawthorn not count as Gen Z?

Like if it turns out that the first Gen Z member of Congress was elected in the first election in which any member of that generation was eligible.....that's not very newsworthy.

We should instead congratulate Joe Biden on being President and Nancy Pelosi for being Speaker of the House even though they come from the generation before the Baby Boomers.

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Suprak_the_Stud
11/08/22 8:47:56 PM
#243:


Illinois governor stays blue so at least my state stays livable for the next two years aw yeah

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Corrik7
11/08/22 8:48:47 PM
#244:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Holy fucking shit.

That's so bad I'm shocked it isn't an error.
Why? Repubs refuse to early vote. Every year Philadelphia alone is like 89-11% for the dem also.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/08/22 8:49:19 PM
#245:


Red wave has officially fallen off the trending tab, lol.

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Jakyl25
11/08/22 8:49:37 PM
#246:


red_sox_777 posted...
Does Madison Cawthorn not count as Gen Z?

Like if it turns out that the first Gen Z member of Congress was elected in the first election in which any member of that generation was eligible.....that's not very newsworthy.

We should instead congratulate Joe Biden on being President and Nancy Pelosi for being Speaker of the House even though they come from the generation before the Baby Boomers.

Cawthorn was born in 1995, thats a Millennial

Gen Z starts in 1997, which would mean that yes, this is the first election any of them are eligible for the House

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Corrik7
11/08/22 8:51:09 PM
#247:


I think people are discounting outstanding votes in dem bastions as not realizing those margins are likely skewed more repub cuz a lot of dems in those bastions already early voted. Expect margins to narrow in those areas as election day votes come in.

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masterplum
11/08/22 8:56:39 PM
#248:


Corrik7 posted...
I think people are discounting outstanding votes in dem bastions as not realizing those margins are likely skewed more repub cuz a lot of dems in those bastions already early voted. Expect margins to narrow in those areas as election day votes come in.

If memory serves me right it usually is 3 waves

Mail in vote Big dem
Quick count Rurals Big Repub
Slow count Urban Small Dem (Big Dumps)


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masterplum
11/08/22 8:58:03 PM
#249:


I'm also raising an eyebrow at these Ohio results

Only 35% in but Democrats leading by 10 points.

That's a fairly massive margin for a contest that I thought would look closer to Florida than Georgia

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Corrik7
11/08/22 8:58:58 PM
#250:


masterplum posted...
If memory serves me right it usually is 3 waves

Mail in vote Big dem
Quick count Rurals Big Repub
Slow count Urban Small Dem (Big Dumps)
No. It's mail in vote allowed to be counted early. Election day vote. Then mail in vote allowed to be counted only after polls close. That said, they just said in PA they aren't counting election day ballots first despite not being able to count early vote until after polls closed but simultaneously. So don't expect the long blue tail in PA like 2020.

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Esuriat
11/08/22 9:01:05 PM
#251:


In VA-07, Vega is leading Spanberger by 5.9k with basically just early votes and several precincts in Prince William County remaining where Spanberger is up by 30 points.

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LordoftheMorons
11/08/22 9:01:22 PM
#252:


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1590158591230558208

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