Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 397: Rishi Rich

(+) 1 Yeah! (+)

LordoftheMorons posted...

Any bets on whether Trump will bail on his planned 2024 announcement (at least for the moment) now that hes getting blamed for Rs botching the election?

The last time Trump did something good for the Republican Party instead of himself was *checks notes* never so I would say no

I get that Trump is not exactly the most calculating guy ever, but announcing a run immediately after disappointing or even bad results that are widely attributed to you seems like a step too far even for him. The smart move is to wait and let people forget. So yeah that may indeed be too much to ask.

neonreaper posted...

that isn't his decision making process

masterplum posted...

The last time Trump did something good for the Republican Party instead of himself was *checks notes* never so I would say no

Im certainly not saying that hed do it to help the party; Im saying that if he declares now he looks like a loser, so Id think he might delay announcing (Im definitely not saying that he wont run at all).

Trump is 100% running for 2024. I don't know if he announces today, next week, or in a few months, but he'll be in the primaries at the very least.

Trump might decide this means he won't win in 2024 and avoid running to avoid the humiliation of losing. We can hope at least.

If Trump loses hell just declare fraud with no evidence like he did in 2020

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/whstancil/status/1589707472172093446?s=46&t=2khM09G93c_buIO-kvtRhg

*blink* *blink*

Remember this? Im normally distrustful of media narratives that dont match the numbers, but I fell for it.

LightningStrikes posted...

Dang, I cant quite believe how well this has gone. I took a look at the archive of the 2020 threads and have come to the conclusion that we should listen to LtM more often.

My plan of setting my election night predictions on baseless optimism is fullproof.

60% of the time, it works every time.

https://twitter.com/brianpmangan/status/1590228057021116416?t=CIbZmhHE7Vph-6QBdqlHLQ&s=19

Cuomo really fucked things up, huh.
At least we keep aoc.

red_sox_777 posted...

Trump might decide this means he won't win in 2024 and avoid running to avoid the humiliation of losing. We can hope at least.

He has no chance. I know a lot of people are looking to DeSantis. If Trump wins the nom, it's an auto L.

People may be looking elsewhere, but you don't take Trump's base away from him at this point. A "moderate R" would have to somehow get their shit together to out-primary him, and that ain't DeSantis.

I'm more scared of DeSantis (both from a probability sense and a what he'll do if he wins sense) than Trump at this point I think

AriaOfBolo posted...

I'm more scared of DeSantis (both from a probability sense and a what he'll do if he wins sense) than Trump at this point I think

You know, the weird part is before trump really started trumping Desantis was a pretty moderate governor. He shored up Florida environmental protections for instance

I have no idea if he would actually be a bad president. Possible he is just following the crowd

AriaOfBolo posted...

I'm more scared of DeSantis (both from a probability sense and a what he'll do if he wins sense) than Trump at this point I think

Oh, DeSantis would undeniably be more effective and more damaging than Trump, at least domestically. There's no way he beats Trump heads up though, and the more candidates you put in a primary the better Trump does.

Not_an_Owl posted...

Trump is 100% running for 2024. I don't know if he announces today, next week, or in a few months, but he'll be in the primaries at the very least.

He promised a big announcement is coming on the 15th.

It would be hilarious if he planned to announce he was running but now has shifted it instead to something like a new Trump t-shirt going on sale

masterplum posted...

You know, the weird part is before trump really started trumping Desantis was a pretty moderate governor. He shored up Florida environmental protections for instance

I have no idea if he would actually be a bad president. Possible he is just following the crowd

You could make similar arguments about Putin's history to say what he's doing now is atypical, but it's basically meaningless.

Biden > Trump
DeSantis > Biden
Trump > DeSantis

is basically how I see things breaking as of today

Im rooting for Trump in the primary (famous last words) because hes the least electable

DREAM scenario is DeSantis wins primary and Trump stubbornly runs 3rd Party to spite him

The other thing with Trump is you know he is going to pick a VP that does him no electability favors this time.

The thing is, this time its actually okay to root for Trump in the primary hoping that its a gift for Democrats, as everybody else who could win is the same or worse, and hes the least likely to win in a presidential election. If Trump does manage to win, an even worse Republican would have gotten in. This was not the case in 2016.

Trump is mode popular than DeSantis maybe, but does Trump have the numbers in a primary? Trump isn't beating DeSantis in Florida. I doubt in area like Arizona. Maybe not in PA. Trump will nab a lot of the Kentuckys, Wear Virginia's, Tennessee, Alabama, etc. But, DeSantis could reign Supreme where it counts.

He claims he has tons of dirt on DeSantis, time to air it out Donald!

Still giddy about Boebert.

Been browsing the conservative subreddit curious what their takes are.

They are really pissed at Trump and ready to anoint Desantis.

This could get really interesting, because what we havent yet seen are claims of voter fraud in primaries.

I feel like the scenario where trump loses to Desantis in the primary could crater Republican enthusiasm by Trump Republicans

I think this is a win-win. I think basically any democrat can beat trump in a general and I think any democrat is going to beat Desantis because half the Republican Party is going to stay home. It will be Obama-Romney all over again

masterplum posted...

Been browsing the conservative subreddit curious what their takes are.

They are really pissed at Trump and ready to anoint Desantis.

This could get really interesting, because what we havent yet seen are claims of voter fraud in primaries.

I feel like the scenario where trump loses to Desantis in the primary could crater Republican enthusiasm by Trump Republicans

I think this is a win-win. I think basically any democrat can beat trump in a general and I think any democrat is going to beat Desantis because half the Republican Party is going to stay home. It will be Obama-Romney all over again

I think DeSantis can court the middle instead of the extreme Trump did.

Corrik7 posted...

I think DeSantis can court the middle instead of the extreme Trump did.

Yes, but that is the Romney strategy. Can Desantis court the middle and hold on to the formerly Apolitical Q followers after he subdues their leader?

I am doubtful

I wouldn't say nobody is calling fraud, Kari Lake is beating that drum pretty hard. She's doing a bad job of reading the room though because it's definitely not the running theme.

Now if AZ hadn't broken so hard for Dems, especially with the SoS, could have been a more worrying story!

https://youtu.be/Y0LA7Ff2hgs?t=1378

masterplum posted...

Yes, but that is the Romney strategy. Can Desantis court the middle and hold on to the formerly Apolitical Q followers after he subdues their leader?

I am doubtful

We don't want the extreme. They can vote or stay at home. Fuck them. They are what's destroying the party. Desantis sucks also. We need to get back to the Romneys and Bushs and etc. Going away from that is what cost us. Romney lost to an incumbent president who was popular. That doesn't mean move away from that strategy. That means dig in deeper.

Corrik7 posted...

I think DeSantis can court the middle instead of the extreme Trump did.

His victory speech had him saying his win is a victory against wokeness, so not off to a good start.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

His victory speech had him saying his win is a victory against wokeness, so not off to a good start.

The middle doesn't like identity politics either.

The extremes are calling everything frauds or conspiracies and etc.

Corrik7 posted...

The middle doesn't like identity politics either.

Being against wokeness is identity politics itself.

Corrik7 posted...

The middle doesn't like identity politics either.

Being against "wokeness" is identity politics.

Ninja'd.

Ashethan posted...

Being against wokeness is identity politics itself.

It's a response to identity politics, yes.

No, Corrik, it's directly identity politics.

Corrik, how do you define wokeness?

Im also curious about how Corrik defines identity politics. The fact is that identity politics is unavoidable because guess what, your identity affects stuff.

I actually didn't expect the Dems to be so successful this election. The Republicans had most things going for them, especially with Biden's approval being so low and the economy in the shits. Very pleasantly surprised by the outcome. This was absolutely the Republican party's election to lose, and I think they got too bold and finally turned some people away from wanting to support them. Turns out you can't just be outwardly cartoonishly evil and people won't take notice.

I think the only way Republicans start to come back is if Dems do nothing with the majorities they have or R's start swinging less to the far right.

I think moving left to...being actual Republicans again is the Republican path forward, but there are going to be growing pains where it crushes them. They're in an absolutely dreadful position for 2024 because they are looking very bad on their current path but a moderate transition will take longer than 2 years to go into effect, and will damage their vote in the short terms while Trump is still running his mouth. The only noteable heavily backed Republican candidate who won a highly contested seat was Vance, and his victory speech was already super muted to the point where his crowd didn't know what to do when he praised his opponent, so I think even he is going to start backing off the rhetoric (don't quote me on that one please, I'm sure it's gonna bite me in the ass)

I hate to get super morbid, but I think, with absolutely no sense of sarcasm or exaggeration, the absolute best thing that can happen for The Republican party's numbers is if Trump has a heart attack within the next year and bites it. His existence is now a poison pill.

Jakyl25 posted...

Corrik, how do you define wokeness?

Caring about identity politics.

Corrik7 posted...

Caring about identity politics.

So...the GOP?

Corrik7 posted...

Caring about identity politics.

So being anti-woke is being woke.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

I think moving left to...being actual Republicans again is the Republican path forward, but there are going to be growing pains where it crushes them. They're in an absolutely dreadful position for 2024 because they are looking very bad on their current path but a moderate transition will take longer than 2 years to go into effect, and will damage their vote in the short terms while Trump is still running his mouth. The only noteable heavily backed Republican candidate who won a highly contested seat was Vance, and his victory speech was already super muted to the point where his crowd didn't know what to do when he praised his opponent, so I think even he is going to start backing off the rhetoric (don't quote me on that one please, I'm sure it's gonna bite me in the ass)

I hate to get super morbid, but I think, with absolutely no sense of sarcasm or exaggeration, the absolute best thing that can happen for The Republican party's numbers is if Trump has a heart attack within the next year and bites it. His existence is now a poison pill.

Counterpoint: The 2024 senate map is dreadful for democrats.

"We're a Christian Nation!" - Not Identity Politics

"LGBT People deserve rights." - Somehow Identity Politics

TotallyNotMI posted...

Counterpoint: The 2024 senate map is dreadful for democrats.

Not wrong, but we just had the strongest midterm showing for an incumbent party since the 9/11 midterms and that was with the entire deck stacked against them, so I wouldn't get all doom and gloom yet.

Looks like Senate will come down to Nevada and Georgia runoff. Democrats still have a path to win the House also.

Ashethan posted...

"We're a Christian Nation!" - Not Identity Politics

"LGBT People deserve rights." - Somehow Identity Politics

That's one way to extremely set a deck in an argument in which nothing of that sort was ever said.

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590378046036774912

Theres an argument giving republicans enough rope to hang themselves would be good.

Need the senate to get judicial nominees through, but a small Republican majority in the house could be great for democrats. They could impeach Biden, they could force a government shutdown, they could take all the blame for democrats doing another 2 years of nothing due to sinema and Manchin

masterplum posted...

Theres an argument giving republicans enough rope to hang themselves would be good.

Need the senate to get judicial nominees through, but a small Republican majority in the house could be great for democrats. They could impeach Biden, they could force a government shutdown, they could take all the blame for democrats doing another 2 years of nothing due to sinema and Manchin

Sounds like someone who enjoys power over getting things accomplished.

Corrik7 posted...

Sounds like someone who enjoys power over getting things accomplished.

Nah, just thinking long term. #1 goal is preserving democracy long enough for anti-vaxers to die off

Corrik, at what point in history do you think the shift in "wokeness" happened? Because it sure SEEMS like the GOP really started to hate "wokeness" in the mid-to-late 1960s.