Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 397: Rishi Rich

(+) 1 Yeah! (+)

TotallyNotMI posted...

Counterpoint: The 2024 senate map is dreadful for democrats.

This. Even if Republicans massively underperform in 2024, the Dems can't make enough gains in the Senate to really prove their current strategy unviable. The GOP isn't going to change much unless it's clear that they have no other path to win Congress or the presidency.

Inviso posted...

Corrik, at what point in history do you think the shift in "wokeness" happened? Because it sure SEEMS like the GOP really started to hate "wokeness" in the mid-to-late 1960s.

I don't know when "wokeness" started. The term I feel sort of came about with the matrix movies and redpilling where both sides have weirdly co-opted the term at times. But, I could be wrong there.

Apparently it's from the 1940s.

Can someone explain Nevada to me?

Is the idea that the remaining votes in LV and Reno are going blue?

banananor posted...

Can someone explain Nevada to me?

Is the idea that the remaining votes in LV and Reno are going blue?

There MAY be 100k uncounted mail in ballots in a large district to count. There are about 6000 rural votes outstanding in rural areas. And there is some votes in a democratic bastion outstanding.

The question is if the 100k ballot thing is true or not and if they skew blue. Because the district I believe isn't really a democratic bastion but relatively an even split one or something.

Ron Johnson won

Fuck

I mean we knew that last night.

I'm not sure why that wasn't getting called. I actually assumed it had been!

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

This was absolutely the Republican party's election to lose, and I think they got too bold and finally turned some people away from wanting to support them. Turns out you can't just be outwardly cartoonishly evil and people won't take notice.

This is a nitpick, but I think its a distinction worth making: the numbers dont show so much that people were turned away from wanting to support them, its that young people were motivated to show up against them.

Corrik7 posted...

There MAY be 100k uncounted mail in ballots in a large district to count. There are about 6000 rural votes outstanding in rural areas. And there is some votes in a democratic bastion outstanding.

The question is if the 100k ballot thing is true or not and if they skew blue. Because the district I believe isn't really a democratic bastion but relatively an even split one or something.

Yeah, it's less that Clark County is blue (it's only slightly blue) and more that they're mail-in votes, which skew strongly blue.

Nevada is strange when you look at a map - I'm not aware of another state that has approximately 2/3 of its population in one county (Clark). Clark includes Las Vegas AND all of its extended metropolitan area so it's only pale blue.

Georgia out here wanting to be the laughing stock of the country voting again for brainless space laser Qanon koolaid drinker LOL

swordz9 posted...

Georgia out here wanting to be the laughing stock of the country voting again for brainless space laser Qanon koolaid drinker LOL

I mean, Florida re-elected a sex trafficking pedophile. Even Alabama voted Democrat rather than elect a pedophile.

https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1590398806373593088

Its true. Theres multiple states in the running for biggest joke. Cant forget Texas either!

MTG is losing her partner in crime at least!

Shes also allegedly Trumps top pick if/when he runs in 2024. Id hope that would hurt more than help, but who even knows with how stupid people act anymore

Yeah Beto got washed.

Even at the local level, the state democratic party has utterly failed to capitalize on the 2018 blue wave. The state legislature has basically been in a holding pattern supermajority since, with Rs picking up a few seats this election from the new maps and South Texas. 2020 was the election where Dems had a chance to do something about it and they totally fumbled.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

I mean we knew that last night.

I'm not sure why that wasn't getting called. I actually assumed it had been!

i was holding out hope that the uncounted milwaukee votes might be able to make a difference since they hadn't called it yet :(

Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke were too popular nationally to do well in their states. The national Democratic Party is really unpopular.

I heard Beto wanted to make it less easy to shoot kids in school and I guess Texas would rather their youth die instead

masterplum posted...

Theres an argument giving republicans enough rope to hang themselves would be good.

is that not what the trump admin was

AriaOfBolo posted...

is that not what the trump admin was

And Trump lost decisively leading to a Democrat trifecta!

UshiromiyaEva posted...

I mean we knew that last night.

I'm not sure why that wasn't getting called. I actually assumed it had been!

there was a very brief window that Mandela shot up and tightened the race which that really caught me off-guard

although it didn't take long for it to shoot back the other way and since then it kinda settled

ZaziGuado posted...

I'm really happy that nationwide it was an encouraging performance by the Dems. However, my entire state of Iowa seems to have gone completely red and I'm very saddened by this.

Yep.

I'm right on the border of WI and IL and man if I didn't own a house...

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah Beto got washed.

Even at the local level, the state democratic party has utterly failed to capitalize on the 2018 blue wave. The state legislature has basically been in a holding pattern supermajority since, with Rs picking up a few seats this election from the new maps and South Texas. 2020 was the election where Dems had a chance to do something about it and they totally fumbled.

It's been about seven hours since I checked and I'm still more annoyed than anything that Paxton won.

https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1590330602985000961

Whitey the worst

Reg posted...

It's been about seven hours since I checked and I'm still more annoyed than anything that Paxton won.

Yeah fuck that guy too, he's the worst. Well, Abbot is the worst, and so is Dan Patrick. But let's just say it's a tie.

For me it's that the statewide battles were always going to be uphill, but the local stuff is what shows the overall strategy isn't improving. Not much hope for the people of Texas if this is the best the Dems can muster.

KamikazePotato posted...

https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1590330602985000961

The most fucked up part about this is that there was this whole extended news cycle about Abrams doing poorly with Black men, compared to women.

Wow gee I'm sure it was that 8% difference (5%) that did her in

Meanwhile, back at Twitter

https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1590384606716768256?s=46&t=5qVfPjeZKQJindPH0o-IiA

Which was the bigger upset of the week: Dems killing it last night or Sonic Frontiers coming out alright?

I think Kemp being off the ticket destroys Herchel's runoff chances, but I'd still rather Nevada clinch it in order to bust out maximum R demotivation in December.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Which was the bigger upset of the week: Dems killing it last night or Sonic Frontiers coming out alright?

On Resetera they have a group pledge to buy Sonic Frontiers if the Dems keep the House, because Sonic like the Democrats is blue and turned out better than expected. Its very funny.

LightningStrikes posted...

On Resetera they have a group pledge to buy Sonic Frontiers if the Dems keep the House, because Sonic like the Democrats is blue and turned out better than expected. Its very funny.

That's why he said it.

LightningStrikes posted...

because Sonic like the Democrats is blue and turned out better than expected. Its very funny.

Best thing I've read today.

I thought Resettera had been shut down though so another shocker for me today.

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah fuck that guy too, he's the worst. Well, Abbot is the worst, and so is Dan Patrick. But let's just say it's a tie.

For me it's that the statewide battles were always going to be uphill, but the local stuff is what shows the overall strategy isn't improving. Not much hope for the people of Texas if this is the best the Dems can muster.

The thing is, even though they're all atrocious, I can at least understand why Republican supporters (To the extent that I can understand that they exist at all) would vote for Abbot/Patrick. They're atrocious people and actively bad for most of the people that voted for them, but sure. They're generally doing what they said they'd do in office.

Paxton is legitimately using his office to stonewall investigations and cover up (alleged) crimes.

I genuinely can't understand how anybody with a functioning brain looks at that and thinks "yeah, that's ok, I'll vote for it"

Also speaking of losers of the night: Trafalgar, RCP, and to a lesser extent - but still worth calling out - Silver/538.

Most of us here have been shit talking Trafalgar and rightfully so because they openly juice their polls on vibes and give absolutely nonsense results, coasting off their results in 2016 where their arbitrary boosting of Republicans lined up with Trump activating a bunch of nonvoters who the rest of the industry missed (and even then I think if you dig in the weeds it's more complicated when you evaluate Trafalgar's performance) but they and other partisan GOP polls were basically trying to will a narrative into existence with sus polls.

Which brings us to RCP. They've long, long, been operating with a partisan slant towards the GOP but they went super blatant with it this time. They were cherrypicking polls to include in their averages in a manner that was openly partisan. An outfit could release a poll that looked favorable to the GOP and they'd include it but then that same outfit would release a poll the next week showing a better result for the Dems and it mysteriously would not be counted. Bush league shit.

And then 538/Silver. Admittedly, they're not on the same tier as the above two but aside from shit like A-ranked Trafalgar, Silver was being called out by other election data people in the run-up to the election on how he was weighing partisan polls and polls that were uh... not very high quality - we're talking in one case case literally run by two high schoolers - like they were the same as the robust outfits like Marist and NYT/Siena and maintaining that if you just throw them all on the pile it'll work itself out - which tracks with the libertarian mindset of the market giving the best results.

I was watching all this transpire for months obviously, and it came up occasionally in discussions here, but I held back because it felt adjacent to "unskew the polls!" plus I'd been burned by being an optimist in 2016 and 2020 but the whole thing looked extremely sus the whole way down when you basically had two entirely separate realities depicted when you looked at just the established pollsters versus looking at Trafalgar and the GOP-funded polls - and RCP and the media were running with the Trafalgar worldline with glee - take that Politico article where they shit on their own poll that refuted their article premise of "Dems in disarray!!!111!"

sorry had to get all this off my chest

Democrats might legitimately gain a seat. Wow.

Guess the bug wildcard is what GA runoff looks like. Lots of split ticket voting for Kemp so possible those split ticket voters dont vote only for Warnock, but who knows

Agree with everything you said. In specific:

Thorn posted...

and RCP and the media were running with the Trafalgar worldline with glee - take that Politico article where they shit on their own poll that refuted their article premise of "Dems in disarray!!!111!"

Can't find it now, but there's already articles about why these midterm results somehow hurt Biden. The media makes a lot more sense when you realize it's all owned by conservatives.

masterplum posted...

Democrats might legitimately gain a seat. Wow.

Guess the bug wildcard is what GA runoff looks like. Lots of split ticket voting for Kemp so possible those split ticket voters dont vote only for Warnock, but who knows

For comparison, in 2020:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/9/4/2/AAIpcmAAD3TO.png

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1590417865596841984

This is pretty incredible out of PA

Reg posted...

Paxton is legitimately using his office to stonewall investigations and cover up (alleged) crimes.

I genuinely can't understand how anybody with a functioning brain looks at that and thinks "yeah, that's ok, I'll vote for it"

That's because crimes are cool when people you like do them

People did that with Trump too and hes probably guilty of more crimes hes gotten away with than any President or at least up there

GA-Sen is going to a runoff

My gut feeling is that Warnock will have a significantly easier time if the race doesn't determine overall control of the Senate since I'm pretty sure a lot more of Walker's voters are holding their nose to vote for him, and some of them might just stay home if they feel like they don't absolutely need to vote.

Not having Kemp to help drag his numbers up will help too. I'll just trust Georgia to save us again if it comes to it, though obviously I'd prefer if we just make it moot before then by winning AZ and NV.

Thorn posted...

Also speaking of losers of the night: Trafalgar, RCP, and to a lesser extent - but still worth calling out - Silver/538.

Most of us here have been shit talking Trafalgar and rightfully so because they openly juice their polls on vibes and give absolutely nonsense results, coasting off their results in 2016 where their arbitrary boosting of Republicans lined up with Trump activating a bunch of nonvoters who the rest of the industry missed (and even then I think if you dig in the weeds it's more complicated when you evaluate Trafalgar's performance) but they and other partisan GOP polls were basically trying to will a narrative into existence with sus polls.

Which brings us to RCP. They've long, long, been operating with a partisan slant towards the GOP but they went super blatant with it this time. They were cherrypicking polls to include in their averages in a manner that was openly partisan. An outfit could release a poll that looked favorable to the GOP and they'd include it but then that same outfit would release a poll the next week showing a better result for the Dems and it mysteriously would not be counted. Bush league shit.

And then 538/Silver. Admittedly, they're not on the same tier as the above two but aside from shit like A-ranked Trafalgar, Silver was being called out by other election data people in the run-up to the election on how he was weighing partisan polls and polls that were uh... not very high quality - we're talking in one case case literally run by two high schoolers - like they were the same as the robust outfits like Marist and NYT/Siena and maintaining that if you just throw them all on the pile it'll work itself out - which tracks with the libertarian mindset of the market giving the best results.

I was watching all this transpire for months obviously, and it came up occasionally in discussions here, but I held back because it felt adjacent to "unskew the polls!" plus I'd been burned by being an optimist in 2016 and 2020 but the whole thing looked extremely sus the whole way down when you basically had two entirely separate realities depicted when you looked at just the established pollsters versus looking at Trafalgar and the GOP-funded polls - and RCP and the media were running with the Trafalgar worldline with glee - take that Politico article where they shit on their own poll that refuted their article premise of "Dems in disarray!!!111!"

sorry had to get all this off my chest

Pretty sure the results were in the margin of error and silvers model has the results easily within the 80% of expected range.

Silver said if PA ends up +4 as NYT predicts it would be in margin of error for +1 Oz polls, but it would be about a Hillary in Wisconsin result.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1590460296111738880?s=19

oh ya my dark brandon

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/0/1/6/AAeolZAAD3UY.jpg