Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1368

(+) Yeah! (+)

Since we're counting GotY-victories and talked about Mario VS Samus earlier, this is the moment where Metroid (again) surpasses Super Mario for GotY-victories.

MP
SMG
MD

People love their Nintendo. But for Metroid fans is this a good game after so many years that no game came out?

HaRRicH posted...

Since we're counting GotY-victories and talked about Mario VS Samus earlier, this is the moment where Metroid (again) surpasses Super Mario for GotY-victories.

MP
SMG
MD

To be fair, Metroid games have releases in somewhat weak years while Odyssey came out when BotW did.

So if RE8 is about equal to RE7, then it puts Metroid Dread somewhere along Mass Effect 2's level or a bit higher. Not bad, I did not expect the game to already be this strong.

REV is baaad, glad it's getting its ass kicked.

RE8 vs. Ghost of Tsushima who ya got

I'd probably take Ghost. REV kinda won second place by default, since it was kind of a weak year.

It's hard for me to imagine RE8 losing based on franchise power, but Ghost did look pretty good in that poll.

The importany thing to keep in mind for VIIIs strength isnt its own franchise name, but that of 2021s #3. If Resident Evil VIII can beat a game, then if these GOTY polls hold up at all, Tales of Arise can at least get really close to beating the same game. And Tales of Arise being particularly strong doesnt seem that likely.

I'd think Ghost of Tushima was stronger a year ago than now, not to mention anything's ability to look good against FF.

GoT should be stronger.

I'd say it's somewhere in the ballpark of the other Sony first party games like Horizon and Spider-Man, whereas Village is, at best, a bit stronger than 7.

I think Tsushima would 55-45 RE8 pretty easily. That game was simply a lot more loved.

If Resident Evil VIII beats Ghost, that says things about FFVIIR vs. Dread I'm not prepared to buy into, as much as I love Metroid.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

If Resident Evil VIII beats Ghost, that says things about FFVIIR vs. Dread I'm not prepared to buy into, as much as I love Metroid.

Yeah, this is my problem with RE8 > Tsushima. It feels like the right pick, but Tsushima looked really good in that poll. It just feels like people cared about RE8 a lot more - I've seen a lot more people say RE8 was their favorite game of 2021 than people who'd say Tsushima was their fave of 2020.

2020 was much stiffer competition than 2021 though

Yeah, that's why I posed the question. Our first instinct would be to take a well received mainline Resident Evil game, but it would also imply Dread could beat Remake.

Of course we know PotD results don't always translate to contests anyway but I thought it was worth considering.

Mac Arrowny posted...

It just feels like people cared about RE8 a lot more - I've seen a lot more people say RE8 was their favorite game of 2021 than people who'd say Tsushima was their fave of 2020.

I don't even disagree with that, but I'm inclined to think it's an artifact of our bubble. These big-name, well-liked Sony exclusives always seem to be a much bigger deal among the general gaming public than here on B8, plus they're exactly the types of games that fit the GotY image voters tend to have in their heads. GameFAQs at large is probably somewhere between us and, say, IGN in that regard.

For what it's worth, using the 1:30 PM PT update for Dread/RE8, based on KP's 2020 X-Stats, and assuming RE8 = RE7:

• If Tsushima = Uncharted 4 (and for context, KP's stats put Uncharted 4 a bit ahead of RE7), FF7R gets ~43.12% on Metroid Dread
• If Tsushima = Spider-Man, FF7R gets ~49.24% on Metroid Dread
• If Tsushima = Horizon, FF7R gets ~50.6% on Metroid Dread

Something there doesn't add up for me.

I can't see Dread beating FF7R, right?

At the same time, and I say this without having played it, I don't think Tsushima is on the level of Spider-Man or Horizon.

Tsushima = Horizon seems fine to me.

MetalmindStats posted...

I don't even disagree with that, but I'm inclined to think it's an artifact of our bubble. These big-name, well-liked Sony exclusives always seem to be a much bigger deal among the general gaming public than here on B8, plus they're exactly the types of games that fit the GotY image voters tend to have in their heads. GameFAQs at large is probably somewhere between us and, say, IGN in that regard.

For what it's worth, using the 1:30 PM PT update for Dread/RE8, based on KP's 2020 X-Stats, and assuming RE8 = RE7:
* If Tsushima = Uncharted 4 (and for context, KP's stats put Uncharted 4 a bit ahead of RE7), FF7R gets ~43.12% on Metroid Dread
* If Tsushima = Spider-Man, FF7R gets ~49.24% on Metroid Dread
* If Tsushima = Horizon, FF7R gets ~50.6% on Metroid Dread

Dread = FFVIIR seems plausible to me. Remake's ending was pretty divisive and if Square goes completely off the rails in part 2, remake could end up even weaker.

I'll wait for the next part of FF7R to flop before I consider taking MD over it. Even if it flopped on the level that Mass Efect 3 did though, Mass Effect 2 has remained strong and seemingly unphased by it

Poll updates and trend charts for yesterday's GotY poll:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13WVaE-iF06Oky_uBPzMfGuNJ46_ha1jfe2yODYxLl_M/pub?gid=2056357076

Time | Dread | RE8 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 72.67% | 27.33% | 172 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 67.63% | 32.37% | 936 | (0:05-1:00)
FNV | 62.19% | 37.81% | 2034 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 62.30% | 37.70% | 1337 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 63.77% | 36.23% | 2299 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 62.27% | 37.73% | 2075 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 64.08% | 35.92% | 348 | (22:00-24:00)

Dread was very frontloaded at the start and that's all it really had going for it. As expected, RE8 did best during the night vote and morning vote. Dread did perform slightly better towards the end of the poll, but still not on the same level of the Power Hour.

HaRRicH posted...

I'll wait for the next part of FF7R to flop before I consider taking MD over it. Even if it flopped on the level that Mass Efect 3 did though, Mass Effect 2 has remained strong and seemingly unphased by it

Even without part 2, 56% on GoT is still pretty lackluster though and should place 7R around ME2 in strength, unless you believe GoT is on par with TLOU1 (pre-TLOU2 shitstorm) or GoW and I don't see anywhere on the internet where that's the case. And 7R might not even end up as strong as the GotY polls would suggest, if XV is anything to go by.

FFVIIR just looked on the level of a normal GotY winner in 2020 not an all timer like Skyrim or Breath of the Wild. Mass Effect 2 level and equal to or just below Metroid Dread sounds right to me. Just for fun, a ranking of GotYs by strength imo:

Breath of the Wild
The Witcher 3
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Final Fantasy X
Metroid Prime
Skyrim
Twilight Princess
Wind Waker
Super Mario Galaxy
Resident Evil 4
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Super Smash Bros. 4
Mass Effect 2
Metroid Dread
Final Fantasy VII Remake
Resident Evil 2
A Link Between Worlds
GTA San Andreas
Borderlands 2
Final Fantasy XV
Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2

The weaker two Smash games are borderline just guessing, though I am fairly confident on the rest. Very, very, bullish on The Witcher.

Most of that looks believable, but I don't think there's any chance Metroid Prime beats the GC Zeldas.

Super Mario Galaxy is like 5 spots too high.

I wouldn't take Smash 4 over anything higher than San Andreas with any confidence.

Yeah, I'm not buying Final Fantasy VII Remake being a huge beast. I think Metroid Dread could take it; maybe not easily but it's definitely up for debate.

GC Zeldas should be the favorite over Skyrim and given a good chance against FFX. 2015 FFX looked fairly bad three matches in a row. while it can maybe be excused for MMX and Chrono Trigger, I dont think Half-Life 1 had any business coming out of that contest looking good after how hard Half-Life 2 fell in 5 years and Gordon getting tripled in 2018 when basically nobody even thought he would get doubled.

Auron also fell off hard in 2018 against what he used to be capable of against Sub-Zero and I think he even lost ground against Solid Snake relative to 2010 - and Snake was definitely weaker 8 years later.

also:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6149-best-game-ever-day-26-round-3-final-fantasy-vi-vs-zelda-the

not a lot of room for FFX to not face at least a serious threat from GC Zelda before youd have to start questioning FFX/FFVI

Wouldn't be that confident in a lot of things there. Witcher keeping second for one thing, Galaxy being a bit too high, TP and WW being a bit too low. I also think FFVIIR is a good deal better than that. People vote a bit differently in things that are called GotY and GotD that seemed apparent though. Like, how Smash looked weak every round, but it still got its job done. I'd think something similar applies to a remake of FFVII, especially because FFVII makes most things look good against it.

My personal theory regarding Witcher 3 is that it's lost a step since 2018. Back then it was a symbol of CD Projekt's Red pristine reputation among gamers. Cyberpunk tarnished that reputation, and I think Witcher 3 suffers a bit as a result.

I think Witcher 3 will still be fine, and the second season of the show just dropped, which would help it.

I don't think there's any way Witcher 3 is still that high in 2022. It's likely still a very strong game but 2018 was just a perfect confluence for its success.

I am going to say I strongly disagree on that and I think The Witcher III is still just as strong. It is an evergeen game that is still getting new players and is getting a huge next gen update. In fact, the Cyberpunk debacle could work in its favour as CD Projekt are doubling down on The Witcher again rather than Cyberpunk.

Also most people prefer season 2 to season 1, which also got some backlash.

Also Galaxy is underrated around here, Galaxy 2 looked great in GOTD2 and 1 is the stronger of the two.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Galaxy 2 looked great in GOTD2

I think it's a bit fraudulent because I think there's only so bad a game like the Witcher can make a mainline Mario game look. I don't think Galaxy 2 is that different from the game that lost to Mass Effect 1.

Mario Galaxy is fine, but that's all it's ever been.

Mass Effect did pretty well against SSB4

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6121-best-game-ever-day-18-round-2-smash-bros-wii-u-vs-mass

SSB4 then went on to get ~35% against FFVII. Which isn't too far as to what SSBM would get pre-rally.

Lightning Strikes posted...

In fact, the Cyberpunk debacle could work in its favour as CD Projekt are doubling down on The Witcher again rather than Cyberpunk.

This argument has been used multiple times in the past for various properties and in practice it never works. Rising tides raise all ships, and the opposite is true as well. The strength of games and characters is partially tied to people's faith in their home company.

Season 2 of the show coming out is a much better argument. I forgot about that.

charmander6000 posted...

Mass Effect did pretty well against SSB4

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6121-best-game-ever-day-18-round-2-smash-bros-wii-u-vs-mass

SSB4 then went on to get ~35% against FFVII. Which isn't too far as to what SSBM would get pre-rally.

SSBM without rallies got more than that on 2015 Chrono Trigger, and 2015 Chrono Trigger was absolutely stronger than FF7 by a good margin.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6147-best-game-ever-day-25-round-3-chrono-trigger-vs-final

Lightning Strikes posted...

...
Breath of the Wild
The Witcher 3
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Final Fantasy X
Metroid Prime
Skyrim
Twilight Princess
Wind Waker
Super Mario Galaxy
Resident Evil 4
...

I feel like Ultimate's strength is way overrated. In 2020, Ultimate couldn't even get 60% on Xenoblade, which tied P4G which barely beat RDR, meaning Ultimate is worth around 61-62% on RDR. That's a weak result considering in 2015, SotN got 62% on DKC2 which tied Xenoblade and SotC got 59% on RDR.

This puts Ultimate around the MGS1/SotN tier which is decent and maybe in the top 20-25 but a step or two below MP/FFX/WW/TP.

squexa posted...

Ultimate couldn't even get 60% on Xenoblade, which tied P4G which barely beat RDR, meaning Ultimate is worth around 61-62% on RDR. That's a weak result considering in 2015, SotN got 62% on DKC2 which tied Xenoblade and SotC got 59% on RDR.

I wouldn't compare 2020 Xenoblade to 2015 Xenoblade.

And I'd say the Xenoblade that faced Ultimate was riding a pretty good bandwagon at that point, too.

Also 2015 RDR to 2020 RDR for that matter (also P4G was rallying hard).

You can surely just assume that P4G, RDR and Xenoblade all got boosted to make Ultimate look better, but then there's stuff like the 63% on Spiderman, which is not that great of a result either.

squexa posted...

You can surely just assume that P4G, RDR and Xenoblade all got boosted to make Ultimate look better, but then there's stuff like the 63% on Spiderman, which is not that great of a result either.

It looks fine if you put Spider-Man around Horizon's level.

Oh, I don't think Ultimate is as good as Melee or Brawl was at their peak. I think it finds a way to beat every other game on the list though (besides BotW, of course). Mario Odyssey seemed to look better than Ultimate all throughout the contest and Ultimate, well, ultimately still won anyway. I don't think either of the other two Zeldas or Prime would overtake it. I don't trust Skyrim or Witcher 3 to win that either.

Peak Brawl >= Peak Melee > Ultimate > Current Melee = Peak Smash 4 > Current Brawl > Current Smash 4

But also P4G, RDR, and Xenoblade were all assumed to have boosted regardless of Ultimate and all had very good reasons to do so.

Peak Melee definitely wasn't the Melee vs. Brawl duel, it was the contest where it beat CT and FFVII before losing to a crazy opponent in Undertale. It could have won the BGE contest, which isn't something I could say for Brawl or Ultimate.