Board 8 > Stock Topic 34

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen posted...

I'll shill it one last time for you and the rest of this topic.

1. Current market cap is literally below cash on hand BBIG should have no need to dilute in the future (and has said it won't need to)
2. Independent valuation of Lomotif (A Tiktoklike Social Media thingwhich BBIG owns 80% of) in a separate SEC filing had it at 5b Market Cap. At 80% it'd be 4b, which is 10x BBIG's current market cap. BBIG also owns Adrizer which is an advertising platform-- good synergy with a social media platform.
3. The PR giving some details on the Tyde spinoff said it will be 10:1 ratio. Nasdaq listing requirements for Tyde means the company has to have minimal 80m assets-- given the style of the BBIG's spinoff that means BBIG's valuation would need to be minimal of 800m (2x BBIG's current market cap). We also have evidence that Tyde is a legitimate bitcoin mining op from the filings/announcements so I suspect the valuation isn't the bare minimum.
4. Short interest is hovering around 38% and has been rapidly increasing in the past month, as well as Cost to Borrow increasing from 20% to 100%. Tyde spinoff (slated to be before the end of the year) will force shorts to cover-- we've had this happen with Overstock in 2020 as they need to deliver spinoff shares to close out short positions.
This is just the company. Now if you look at the price/volume action of sudden plunges in the stock price for no reason, news not moving it up, institutional investors getting in as per filings, all the intangibles with bears spreading fake information when it's about to run, buzz on reddit/stocktwits/twitter. To me there's a ton of upside here. ESPECIALLY if it cracks $10 (so it crosses the market cap to be on WSB).

You don't need to make money with me. I'm just saying this isn't Smile Direct Club or Wish or any number of other "SQUEEZE LOL SQUEEZE" stocks. There's a lot to be excited about here. I'm not throwing 60% of my portfolio into it based on nothing but hype and hope.

The only reason it hasn't moved is because we are still waiting for the official Form 10 valuation of BBIG and the earnings call not showing the company hemorrhaging money will be nice. Greedy when others are fearful etc etc. Breadcrumbs are there between 8Ks and PRs.

The upside is a lot higher and more likely than the downside at these levels. The only reason people aren't in it is because moviepass guy is involved (and he's not even involved in BBIG directly anymore) and because there's a lot of fake information out there and the price action is kinda scary. But I think the FLOOR for price when the spinoff occurs is at least the 52 week high of $12.50. Realistically it can go much much higher. Overstock went from $3 to like $120. In some ways there is actually more upside here than with Overstock, too between Lomo, Adrizer, and Tyde.

That sounds very appealing actually. What's the bear thesis? I mean I assume they have some reason to be short and aren't just putting their heads on the chopping block for no reason. Basically I just need a reasonable bear thesis that explains why the bears are in but which I don't think means the stock is actually going down.

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So there isn't much bear thesis at these levels honestly (short sellers can be stubborn/conceited as we've seen in the past), but here are some possibilities for it to implode and why I think we haven't seen much covering just yet (aside from pride).

1. Earnings could come up really terrible in terms of EPS and projected revenue gain from Lomo/Adrizer/Tyde (still technically linked with BBIG until spinoff) is looking not encouraging (keep in mind EPS was at -0.08 in recent quarters where it wasn't acquiring things, so it would be unlikely for it to show another huge negative number without something nice to show for it) so the cash burn could be estimated to be very high
2. The Tyde spinoff is called off or delayed for some reason and retail panic sells. I personally do not think it's necessary to have the spinoff to make a lot of money here. I also do not believe that the spinoff won't happen or be delayed as Tyde has an SEC filing that says it will be traded by the end of the year. But the fear is admittedly somewhat justified as they've had many delays thus far.
3. The valuation of BBIG in their form 10 comes up as well below the 5b estimate. (seems unlikely-- people could be facing jail time and honestly based on valuation of other social media platforms of similar or lower size 5b seems conservative)
4. Call options have been super stacked to the bull side for a while, so market makers are working with the short sellers at the moment, which can make the game of chicken seem more winnable.

I guarantee you this would not still be being shorted if Farnsworth stink was not on it, but eventually strength of the product will come through you have to imagine. Keep in mind that one of the main short sellers is likely Hudson who bought a lot of warrants as that's a common strategy for companies in possession of a lot of warrants (they can exercise the warrants to cover)-- they have no reason to want it to fail long term though.

But if you want my guess I think right now I think shorts are trying to stall until earnings as that's an implosion catalyst and will begin to cover then or just before then (unless form 10 shows up on the SEC feed before then). I also suspect that some shorts are shorting based on a computer algorithm that they are not monitoring and a low cap that reports -1.8 and -5.13 EPS in the last two quarters looks very juicy for bankruptcy risk if you don't dig in (since short endgame is bankruptcy), especially since some of the press releases/news have claimed senior staff members have been "resigning" which is another bankruptcy flag if things are automated (they didn't resign they got moved to Tyde which is going to be a spinoff company as said).

Oh side note even if the spinoff doesn't happen Vinco Ventures is likely changing their ticker name (leaving symbol as BBIG) to Zash Media which as I understand it at the very least causes naked shorts to need to cover.

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I have all my money tied in GS puts expiring tomorrow. Is BBIG really worth another shot?

Now if you want my holdings I can tell you how I expect the timeline to go

1812 Shares (this is my hedge if none of the calls print and my fuel for covered calls if they begin to)
6 4.5c Nov 12
9 5.50c Nov 12 (I honestly think this can pop any day now and these were super cheap bought when it was at like $4.37 yesterday)
35 5c Dec 3
15 8c Dec 10 (By the end of the month we should have had earnings and the form will have been released-- retrace to minimal $9 by this point seems very likely. I spread between the two days as I don't want to bet it all on one timing)
20 7.50c Jan 2022
18 20c Jan 2022 (Tyde dividend/spinoff will be in circulation for 3 weeks at this point if it isn't delayed, so price should have begun to surge here)
61 10c Apr 2022
47 13c Apr 2022
20 20c Apr 2022 (If it really surges my plan is to just sell the 13cs outright to bank a ton of money, use the others as covered call collateral/convert to shares depending on how well it goes)
5 5c Jan 2023 (these 5cs are basically more proxy shares, definitely expect to exercise these in the end)

So I dunno my price target is like $10 by December $40-$120 ($275 is the war cry) by January-April

If the spinoff doesn't happen it's more like $7 by December, $15-$40 by January-April. This is all based on market cap math and historical price action of Overstock.

Downside is if earnings are crap, valuation is crap, spinoff doesn't happen, and Zash rebrand doesn't happen yeah we could see $2 again. I choose to believe this won't happen because the new CEO looks competent though.

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Moonroof posted...

I have all my money tied in GS puts expiring tomorrow. Is BBIG really worth another shot?

Put your 50k you made from Trump in imo. That brings risk down long enough that you should be able to hold through games (I really think $4.30 is the floor though-- that has been tested again and again these past couple of weeks and it's held)

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Oh shorts as a way of hedging warrants makes sense. Although that kind of short doesn't contribute to a squeeze because they can cover by exercising the warrants.

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Right. However keep in mind Hudson only around 20 million warrants and current borrowed shares is around 37 million-- also them shorting literally every warrant seems unlikely and they have exercise price of $9 (so they wouldn't be exercised until we reach $9+ which is 100% gain from here)

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My lottery ticket pick for the next few months: Bought 1 ATVI $45 Put for 2/18/2022.

I think there's decently sound logic in this going down over the next few months:
-CoD came out without much fanfare and has to compete with Battlefield this year. https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2021/11/10/is-call-of-duty-vanguard-doing-great-or-terribly
-WoW is about to get crushed by Endwalker in a month or so.
-The other big Blizzard games (Diablo and Overwatch 2) are delayed with no release date in sight.
-And, of course, the ongoing lawsuits that aren't ending any time soon.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think this makes sense - will hold on to this through their earnings next year (early February) and see what happens.


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With all the Disney+ announcements today, I'm shocked that Disney is still down today.

I might buy a few more shares.

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Oof the new vanguard app is hot garbage, get errors anytime I try to buy or sell.

Also how long does it take to get approved for options trading? It's been three days.

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I havent noticed anything new with my Vanguard app. I think.

It took me around a week to get approved.

I do everything through the website because I'm a boomer I guess

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Might be because I just updated and I normally update my apps every three months or so.

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CREX finally making a run? Up 70% today.

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CREX announced a merger with another company late Friday

I sold off most though. Will get in later if the price stays down but I don't trust this company to hold gains yet and I like other stocks more now

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However I will say if the company has a bullish ER it could definitely fly now. It's possible the owners are smart and are trying to one-two (ER is today) the stock price into the stratosphere

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Cool, I'll sell half to recover my cost now and hold the rest through today.

Also, I forgot I bought some warrants. Can I exercise these (at a lower price) and sell them now? I'm clicking around but don't see how to do that on Vanguard, maybe @Moonroof has done it before?

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You can't exercise warrants until the stock reaches the specified price (not sure what it is in this case). You can always just sell the warrant though

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I don't know how exercising warrants works exactly. I have about 33% of my initial investment (4500 warrants) still in (sold before the second spike oops) so I should still make good gains if it really does fly

I know the stock needs to hold above $4.35 for 10 consecutive trading days for it to be exercisable ($4.35 is the exercise price)

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Mine don't say the price anywhere on vanguard, but they have 11/19/23 as the date.

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Yeah. The SEC filing tells you the date and the price. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356093/000121390018016337/f8k111418ex99-1_creative.htm

Good for 5 years after the filing (so 11-23 as said) and at $4.35 each

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Regretting selling those warrants. Lot of tree shaking going on right now. I'm super bullish about this ER the more I think about it. The guidance should be slamming with this expansion.

Warrants are still good buys and potentially 10-20 baggers though. Stock maybe a 3-6 bagger. Could see $10-$20 range easy with positive EPS and good guidance-- similar to how BGFV ran to $40 from sub $1 CREX has a similar profile in terms of market cap, volume, and increasing EPS. Ain't buying em back though. I'll just deal with making less if it runs don't wanna chase

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Looks like you can buy some shares of the Packers for $300 tomorrow.

Might be neat to own. Not sure how easy it will be to sell at a later date..

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Okay maybe this is the worst thing ever.

It apparently can't be sold. So it's just an expensive souvenir.

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Busy day at work. Sorry. I have no idea about anything warrant related, though it sounds like you got your answer.

I think I"m just going to ride these last warrants till the end. (Or 10x I suppose)

Reflex add seems to be a big deal and in 2022 should nearly double their revenue.

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I miss making money on stonks

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It's like clockwork. SPCE had a good earnings report and went up a bit, and then Richard Branson or some insiders sold a bunch of shares and the stock went down again. I don't know why I didn't sell all my shares on that post-earnings bump instead of just some.

I think I need to exit completely, as this management does not appear to believe in the company. They use every good news event and the corresponding rise in share price as a reason to sell shares.

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9 more BBIG $4.5c Nov 26.

Earnings set in stone for the 22nd (or earlier) so it's do or die real soon.

(I'm an idiot who likes to burn money)

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Remember when this topic made money

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Thanks Joe.

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I was close to selling puts on GS yesterday, glad I didnt. Currently have all my money liquid.

The good old days of DWAC are past us

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ow my portfolio

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Pokemon doing good.

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I am showing -10k unrealized gains right now

I keep buying

It's glorious

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I have a $15000 cash inflow coming in soon from sales and service contracts

I'd use it all on BBIG shares at these prices.

Alas I won't have it till early Dec

Moonroof JOIN ME AND WE WILL DOMINATE THE EARTH on Monday

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BBIG has been going down ever since even before I lost money on it months ago.

For no reason! Buy the fearrrr

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Lopen - how will you look back on all of these hype posts you've been making, all the doubling down, if BBIG never goes up more than to $5-6 within the next year?

If Moonroof puts $50-100k in and loses because the stock drops more, what will you say?

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I know what I have. Price is irrelevant. If I bought a car I knew was worth 50k for 10k and a few weeks later some dude offered me 7k I wouldn't sell it either. Same thing here. If I don't make 500%+ return here, no regrets, but the price going down is meaningless. Only news matters

As for moonroof I helped make him like 100k by pushing him to go for Trumpbucks so I wouldn't feel guilty at all. If he invested a small sum he wouldn't be at risk of losing that much either

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I'm not gambling. Just because the price doesn't show yet the evidence is there that the proper steps are being taken for the stock to have a beast of a run.

I'm sorry my risk profile is too high for you and you know if I make like 300k I'm gonna be too happy with my money to rub your face in it but please stop calling me a pumper. I only want him in because the downside seems super low right now.

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Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong. Moonroof and everyone should know by now that if you invest in something, you bear the risk, not the person who suggested it.

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So what could tank the stock.

Valuation fails to complete
Tyde dividend canceled

That's basically it. If we get valuation it will be higher than market cap (the joke is their market cap is close to CASH ON HAND at this point) which will send it up. Tyde dividend cancelation seems exceedingly unlikely due to SEC forms filed and press releases

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Hmm, Visa has fallen pretty significantly from it's high in July at almost $250, to $212 yesterday. It fell to $201 today because Amazon announced they won't accept Visa cards issued in the UK due to the high fees they charge

I work for a large retail chain and deal with the payment processors and see exactly what these fees are, and I'm on Amazon's side on this one. Depending on the card someone comes in with, the fees charged to you can vary from almost nothing on a debit card, and credit cards can range from 0.5% to 3%. But you can't really do anything about it - you can't encourage anybody to use different cards and it would probably just look bad if you did. But obviously you gotta accept Visa and MasterCard or you can't do business - so Visa and MasterCard can charge you whatever fees they want and you just have to accept it. Getting charged 3% can have a massive impact on whether your business is even profitable.

I wonder if this is the sign of a long term shift in how people deal with Visa, in which case the share price could continue to fall, or if this drop is just a knee jerk reaction to something that's really not going to affect Visa much at all.

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Do ApplePay and GooglePay still use the Visa/MC networks? I suspect that's going to be their big competition going forward. Personally, I like credit cards and I absolutely refuse to use a phone to pay for stuff. Not sure that loads of other people will feel that way though.

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Nvidia BBBBBBBaby

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Oh no my Vanguard app updated. It doesnt even let you buy or sell stocks yet due to ongoing fixes. I can only imagine how long itll be until I can trade options on it. @Menji ?

Yeah, mine just gives me an error anytime I try so I have to go back to their standard webpage on my phone. Seems pretty major for them to just leave like that?

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Mmm Nvidia you sexy slut

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