Board 8 > Stock Topic 25

(+) Yeah! (+)

Moonroof puts half his money into long holds. I did some super research and spoke to some people with super stock knowledge.

PTON
CPNG
POSH
NIO

One year from now, the average price of those four stocks will be up over 300% from their current average ($64). You heard it here first.

Please note that Moonroof is not a financial advisor and this is not a financial advice

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Very true.

if those 4 stops somehow quadruple in a year that would mean sunroof sold out of them all for a loss well before then

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They wont all quadruple. Their combined average will triple, however.

Sunroof posted...

will be up over 300%

if your up 300% that means you quadrupled.

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Not all of them individually, Im saying. $64 average will go to $192 average.

A long hold? So....3 days?

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I was thinking two weeks

Also, yes, +300% = 4x. +100% = 2x. And so on.

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Also, I just looked at POSH's chart. Are we sure this is Moonroof? This looks like the kind of chart he would never buy. I only see falling....no rising.

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Was considering POSH now unsure

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Lmao. Fine with me! Dont say I didnt warn you all.

Honestly think POSH and CPNG have some potential

NIO is actually the worst Chinese vehicle play imo

PTON feeling pretty bearish can't see that gaining trajectory as we open more I'd sooner invest in PLNT

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Peloton literally just has its price forecast increased.

Forecasts who cares they're always super bullish. You gotta dig into the why

I remember when Athersys was forecast for $5 now it's not even half that and much lower than when that forecast was made

Or I remember when they reiterated the $50 PT for Tricida and it was at $16. It's now at $4 lmao

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You cant even spell Peloton without Lopen

Well you can't spell Denison Mines without... Denison Mines...

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out of curiosity Sunroof what do you think PTON has going for it.

From my perspective it's a company that hasn't consistently made a profit that admittely does have good revenue growth and a good balance sheet. However we are coming out of covid which was an amazing chance to grow, but I wonder how much more it can expect to grow once gyms reopen. I feel like it needed to switch over to profitability by now and it's going to have a rough road ahead

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I wanna know why you invest in NIO at this point instead of LI or XPENG.

Li is closest to generating actual profit and goes for hybrid cars instead of pure electric which seems like it may have an appeal for China right now

Xpeng has the self driving car AI thing going for it and advanced battery speculation

Moreover they both have like 1/3 the market cap and better growth rates in the past year than Nio. Nio's market cap vs revenue ratio needs Tesla level growth (also overpriced) potential to pay off but Tesla actually makes money now and has global presence not just national.

So yeah it's like why invest in Nio. Overall revenue is higher than the other two but it had a several year headstart.

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Peloton accessed a previously untapped market in the workout field: lazy people (i.e., people who never went to the gym before). These are people who either never considered exercising before or didnt take exercising seriously enough to go to a gym. Most people who use Peloton are not the same people who go to gyms. They are mostly homebodies who dont care about working out every muscle group. They just want to get or stay in a moderate level of shape. Or, do something that convinces themselves that theyre making an effort.

Also, because of Covid, more people are going to be working from home than ever before (this is actually what caused them to explode the past year). However, they arent going to be returning to offices ever again because companies dont want to spend the money on it. This has been the direction companies have been moving in well before Covid in fact and now its solidified. Therefore, people are going to be incentivized to work out at home, as well.

Peloton is incredible. Its enabling the introverts and homebodies (well, the ones who have money to afford it) to exercise when they didnt know how to before. Personally, I would never buy one because I go to the gym five days a week and run just as often, but again, my type of customer isnt who Peloton targets anyway.

I dont have an argument for NIO over LI or XPENG. Frankly, I lump them all in the same category as Asian Tesla competitors. I have heard that LI is actually better and I plan on looking more into which company is actually the best choice, but my interest mostly lies in the Asian electric car industry and I believe all of those companies are going to do well.

Li > Xpeng > Nio right now imo

But they're all super long term plays you don't have the patience for

If you can't actually make a preference between them though you maybe shouldn't invest in them

But if you really want to, just get all 3 equally at 1/3 value

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Lopen posted...

Li > Xpeng > Nio right now imo

But they're all super long term plays you don't have the patience for

If you can't actually make a preference between them though you maybe shouldn't invest in them

But if you really want to, just get all 3 equally at 1/3 value

He can't do that. He only buys 1 stock at a time, or maybe 3 or 4 total at most. Doesn't leave room to do 3 in one industry.

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Ive been saying it for months now, but the plan has been to dump all my money into 4-5 stocks once the market cools off / I get tired of the everyday game.

Put in in 4-5

Just treat Nio/Xpeng/Li as one stock and split between them equally

So 8k in each rather than 25k in one

Not too hard

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Also, I mentioned last week or so that I moved another ~$100k around into my account. So with $250,000 to play with, I have not been blind to the outcome that sitting on stocks all this time would have led to way more money (not that I can complain with over $60k in gains to date). And with my job in particular, I do not have the time to dedicate to day trading. I have been sticking with it though for the times when big things happen (GME, stocks that others snipe, etc.). But Im slowly losing the passion and desire that has made it worth it the past year.

That is why Im trying to figure out some of the best long holds. And I dont mean 10-20%, Im greedily talking about companies that are likely to grow 75%+ in a year or so.

Sunroof posted...

Also, I mentioned last week or so that I moved another ~$100k around into my account. So with $250,000 to play with, I have not been blind to the outcome that sitting on stocks all this time would have led to way more money (not that I can complain with over $60k in gains to date). And with my job in particular, I do not have the time to dedicate to day trading. I have been sticking with it though for the times when big things happen (GME, stocks that others snipe, etc.). But Im slowly losing the passion and desire that has made it worth it the past year.

Everyone here has been telling you to day trade less and hold more for like a year. It's not a matter of having time to dedicate to day trading - it's a case where you would very likely do better with less effort. But you would have to have the stomach to hold.

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Right. The reason I havent is because I like the rush and staying on top of the big events.

Sunroof posted...

Im greedily talking about companies that are likely to grow 75%+ in a year or so

Li Auto is the only Chinese EV company with a realistic chance to grow 75% by 2022 imo

The other two could but you'd be looking 2023 minimum. Just too far from profit right now

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I could do LI over NIO. Your research accurate. Im also leaning toward BAND. I invested in them awhile back and they have a high stock forecast as well. Not 75% in a year but still pretty good. Im thinking I will do $50k per stock. So PTON, LI, CPNG, POSH, and BAND. Im going to keep researching though.

I still think 16.7k per Li, Xpeng, and Nio would be best. Even if I do think Li is best bet too many variables to be absolutely sure

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Moonroof, are you prepared to pay back ~40% of your net gains in taxes this year? Are they going to bump you into a higher tax bracket? Curious if you did that math yet

we haven't seen the "this is so unfair why are they taking my money from me" posts yet, so I don't think so.

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I file as 1 dependent instead of 0 even though I live alone and have no kids or wife, which helps offset the amount in taxes I end up owing. Im also the person who brought up paying taxes on these gains several topics ago, so yes, Im prepared.

Dont have to pay taxes if you dont have net gains!

Galaxy Brain
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Sunroof posted...

I file as 1 dependent instead of 0 even though I live alone and have no kids or wife, which helps offset the amount in taxes I end up owing. Im also the person who brought up paying taxes on these gains several topics ago, so yes, Im prepared.

Nice of you to give the government an interest free loan!

Id rather pay It over the course of a year than one fell swoop. Its not like Im paying extra.

Sunroof posted...

Id rather pay It over the course of a year than one fell swoop. Its not like Im paying extra.

If you put off payment you could invest the payment in SPY then cash it out when it's time to pay taxes

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True. Its similar to the argument of whether you should buy a house outright versus a down payment and using the rest to invest in things.

You just don't want to be like those tech employees who made a lot of money in early 2000 when their companies went public, held off on paying the taxes, and were left bankrupt when the stock had fallen to less than their tax bill by the end of the year.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Dont have to pay taxes if you dont have net gains!

Galaxy Brain

I'm imagining Trump speaking with his accountants.

Accountant: Mr. President, we don't think your claim to a net worth of $10 billion is accurate. We added up all your assets and debts and we have to stretch a bit on the valuation just to get to $1 billion.

Trump: But you forgot to include my capital losses.

Accountant: Pardon?

Trump: I've lost $18 billion over the last 30 years. If I move to California I can make $18 billion in gains without paying taxes. The tax rate would be 50% (37% federal + 13% state) so my losses are worth $9 billion dollars.

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red sox 777 posted...

You just don't want to be like those tech employees who made a lot of money in early 2000 when their companies went public, held off on paying the taxes, and were left bankrupt when the stock had fallen to less than their tax bill by the end of the year.

What does it matter if the stock fell, if they already sold to have made their gains in the first place?

Sunroof posted...

What does it matter if the stock fell, if they already sold to have made their gains in the first place?

The problem was they didn't sell. Their shares that they earned from working as employees vested.....and became taxable ordinary income (not capital gains) based on the price as of the IPO date. You can only offset $3,000 a year of ordinary income with capital losses, so selling for a big loss at the end of the year doesn't let you offset much of the earlier "earned" income.

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Thats messed up that they were taxed on something they never had

Market currently flat.

who is ready for some exciting times for DNN

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Wake up to see amc and dnn up. Let's fucking go

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In for DNN spikes

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