Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1365

(+) Yeah! (+)

If there was a contest right now, I'd put Galaxy > KH2, then Galaxy > Melee.

Then I'd look at this board's predictions and very likely change to Melee > Galaxy because it'd see the logic of the argument. But I'd keep Galaxy > KH2 because the opposite just doesn't feel right to me.

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Melee will never lose a contest match again without a counter rally because of the insecurity of the fanbase

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If there was a contest right now, SSBM wins the whole tournament via #FreeMelee rally.
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Man I feel like #FreeMelee is already past its expiration date. I wouldnt count on it doing anything unless there was another incident right before or during the next contest.

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You can make a case for a Galaxy > KHII upset.

Picking Galaxy > Melee would be throwing points away even before a rally.

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I feel like KH would benefit from the PS4 ports
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Oh yeah Melee rallies. Without them I'd take it to lose to Wind Waker by now. Wouldn't take Mario Galaxy over KH2 but I think it would get closer than you might think. I would take MGS1/3 over KH2, Metroid Prime vs. either KH might be a good match.

For what it's worth, if you take my adjusted 2015 stats and hold Galaxy 2 constant between 2015 and 2020, The Witcher 3 gets 63% on its 2015 self (!), Skyrim gets 44% on its 2015 self, and Dark Souls gets 58% on its 2015 self. The Last of Us and Arkham City actually didn't decline much and MGSV amazingly managed to increase ever so slightly. Based on this TLOU's bad loss to Dark Souls is more the latter going nuts and less the former dropping.

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Even in 2015, Galaxy wasn't too bad, the game got 40% against Super Metroid who went even with Majora's Mask who got almost 48% against Link to the Past.

I'd easily take LttP > Melee (assuming no rallies) so that puts SMG at around 45% against KHII even if you assume no SFF in its match against Super Metroid (which I'm leaning towards no, but it is a possibility) so at the very least it's not a crazy upset pick, especially if you feel Kingdom Hearts II has dropped over time.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

You can make a case for a Galaxy > KHII upset.

Picking Galaxy > Melee would be throwing points away even before a rally.

It's basically the Smash Ultimate/Mario Odyssey argument. Smash wins the hierarchy when all things are equal. Galaxy would have to be clearly above Melee to win, and that's a hard argument to make.

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If we ever see Galaxy > KHII, we need to see GTAIV vs. MGS4!

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Oh yeah Melee rallies. Without them I'd take it to lose to Wind Waker by now. Wouldn't take Mario Galaxy over KH2 but I think it would get closer than you might think. I would take MGS1/3 over KH2, Metroid Prime vs. either KH might be a good match.

True.

The only thing I disagree with is Melee not being strong anymore without rallies. The game has stayed surprisingly relevant and respected throughout the years. I don't see Melee weakening at all since its very first contest appearance. It seems to be one of those select games whose staying power will remain the same throughout the decades.

Melee easily beats Wind Waker.

For what it's worth, if you take my adjusted 2015 stats and hold Galaxy 2 constant between 2015 and 2020, The Witcher 3 gets 63% on its 2015 self (!), Skyrim gets 44% on its 2015 self, and Dark Souls gets 58% on its 2015 self. The Last of Us and Arkham City actually didn't decline much and MGSV amazingly managed to increase ever so slightly. Based on this TLOU's bad loss to Dark Souls is more the latter going nuts and less the former dropping.

Wow, those are some quite amazing stats!

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SSBM is absolutely a beast even before rallies. That's what makes its rallies so dangerous. A moderate sized rally is enough to beat any opponent.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

SSBM is absolutely a beast even before rallies. That's what makes its rallies so dangerous. A moderate sized rally is enough to beat any opponent.

Except Undertale!

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It would beat Undertale now!

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We have like 10000 votes per poll now. Do still people think that t here will be rallies? Barely anybody cares.

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I don't know, with the low votals rallies have more power than ever. Even a small few 100s votes rally would change the outcome of a match. At this point though, I welcome rallies..we need to pump some life into the contests.

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Mac Arrowny posted...

I feel like KH would benefit from the PS4 ports

Have you tried playing the old Kingdom Hearts games recently? They have not aged well, IMO.

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they're still fantastic actually

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Most games don't benefit from ports unless its exposed to an entirely different system/audience. Nostalgia is always better than reality.

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Seanchan posted...

Have you tried playing the old Kingdom Hearts games recently? They have not aged well, IMO.

I played all of them up to and including Birth By Sleep in 2020!

KH2 is still great and KH1 is still meh.
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LeonhartFour posted...

they're still fantastic actually

I loved KH and KH2 back when I played them on PS2. I didn't like Chain of Memories on GBA.

I got The Story So Far and was excited to play them again, along with the other KH games I hadn't played. Let me just say up front that I stopped playing after starting Birth by Sleep and have not had the energy to go back (in 18+ months)...yet. So my recollection is not as fresh as when I initially played.

The original is NOT a good game. I'm sorry but it's true. The camera is terrible and some of the stages are AWFUL (Tarzan and Alice in Wonderland immediately come to mind). I found many boss battle to be ungodly annoying. Everyone remembers Simple and Clean, the FF characters, and the novelty of the Disney settings and forget that it's a monotonous (and kinda badly playing) game.

I played Chain of Memories for a few hours before I couldn't stand the card system anymore and just watched the cutscenes on Youtube.

KH2 is a much improved game over the original. But that doesn't make it great. It loses quite a bit of the first game's novelty. It's a fine way to pass the time but something like Galaxy is a timeless classic.

358/2 isn't playable but I remember thinking the story was better than I expected.

Birth by Sleep I started with the 1st character and just got frustrated by the battle system and revisiting the same worlds again. Then I thought about having to do the same things with 2 more characters and I just couldn't bear any more.

I really do want to go back and at least experience the rest of the collection but what I had played really soured my nostalgia. I'm just being honest here. I love, and still love, the idea of Kingdom Hearts. I just found the execution lacking and cannot put the series, or even any individual game, on the level of Nintendo's best.

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Picking Wind Waker to beat Melee would also be throwing points away any day. That has been clear since their first contest. Melee has no reason to be weaker now, it's as relevant as ever!

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Leonhart4 posted...

It would beat Undertale now!

Um... I wouldn't count on a rallyless Undertale in a current setting. If anything, it seems to be even more dangerous thanks to all its exposure, spiritual sequel in development, Sans in Smash, etc.

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Advokaiser posted...

Um... I wouldn't count on a rallyless Undertale in a current setting. If anything, it seems to be even more dangerous thanks to all its exposure, spiritual sequel in development, Sans in Smash, etc.

I'm confused about what you think has changed between GotD, where Undertale notably didn't catch any rallies of even slight significance, and now.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Picking Wind Waker to beat Melee would also be throwing points away any day. That has been clear since their first contest. Melee has no reason to be weaker now, it's as relevant as ever!

To be fair, I get why the pick is being discussed in the absence of rallies - 47% on FF6 is a rather beastly result, and certainly better than anything unrallied Melee has ever done. That being said, I have no doubt that Melee would exert its hierarchy to win even a rally-free 1v1 match.

Advokaiser posted...

If we ever see Galaxy > KHII, we need to see GTAIV vs. MGS4!

For all my doomsaying, I have to concede that Galaxy v KHII could actually be an interesting match now, what with the real possibility the two games have moved somewhat in opposite directions. However, what strikes me as perhaps most peculiar about the original GTAIV v MGS4 discussion is that even Lightning Strikes has taken a Brawl fall for granted with the supposition of Fallout 3 beating it in spite of every direct result between the two. And that does make sense - after all, Brawl doesn't have much left going for it now that multiple newer Smash installments have obsoleted its predominant appeal, which would explain why it didn't even make 2015. Notably, all that just happens to sound like a certain GTA game, which isn't even from a series this site truly cares about to help it hold up either.

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I guess I actually play my favorite games over and over so I never feel like I like something just because of nostalgia.


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Advokaiser posted...

Um... I wouldn't count on a rallyless Undertale in a current setting. If anything, it seems to be even more dangerous thanks to all its exposure, spiritual sequel in development, Sans in Smash, etc.

I would. Tumblr doesn't exist the way it did in 2015. Did you see anything resembling a rally when it was losing round 1 in GotD2?

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Also I'd chalk the FFVI vs. Wind Waker result to Zelda being very difficult to blow out. Its worst 1-on-1 loss is Mario 64/Twilight Princess. Same thing with Galaxy 2 looking surprisingly good against Witcher 3 despite being thoroughly mediocre in 2015. A WRPG isn't destroying a mainline Mario game here.

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oh right

I guess I could still relegate to console Zelda only

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Advokaiser posted...

The only thing I disagree with is Melee not being strong anymore without rallies. The game has stayed surprisingly relevant and respected throughout the years. I don't see Melee weakening at all since its very first contest appearance. It seems to be one of those select games whose staying power will remain the same throughout the decades.

Melee easily beats Wind Waker.

SSB Melee (2015g) has a strength of 38.28 against Base Link.
Wind Waker (2015g) has a strength of 37.54 against Base Link.

SSB Melee50.97%<img src="http://thengamer.com/xstats/bar.jpg">31,026Wind Waker49.03%<img src="http://thengamer.com/xstats/bar.jpg">29,849TOTAL VOTES60,875SSB Melee wins with 50.97% of the vote!
A 1,177 vote margin of victory.

It's already close in the official stats, and this is with Melee being behind Chrono Trigger (I did adjust FFVI down a little in the stats too, but not as much as CT). Thing is, Breath of the Wild destroyed Ultimate so easily I have a hard time seeing Melee being much stronger than Ultimate and Wind Waker being much weaker than BOTW. I think this site might kind of be over Smash. That said Melee is still easily a top 20 game, this says more about the site's love of Zelda than anything else, and it probably beats everything else in the GOTD2 bracket unless you think Ultimate is substantially stronger than The Witcher 3.

Also thanks Advokaiser for complimenting my statwork!

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MetalmindStats posted...

To be fair, I get why the pick is being discussed in the absence of rallies - 47% on FF6 is a rather beastly result, and certainly better than anything unrallied Melee has ever done. That being said, I have no doubt that Melee would exert its hierarchy to win even a rally-free 1v1 match.

Smash being higher in hierarchy than Zelda is laughable after this past contest.

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You cannot simply say Zelda > Smash and be done with it, that does not apply to any matchup between the two and not on any console. Same goes for Zelda > Mario and Smash > Mario.

Ocarina of Time has clearly been stronger than anything Smash always and it not prevent Brawl and Melee from beating the Zelda games on their consoles the next contest. Melee did it twice and with Brawl beating TP 1v1 the year after, I suppose that's twice too.

Wind Waker has absolutely no reason to turn that order around by getting... a Wii U remake, while Melee only rose in relevance since, though on our side it probably matters little what happened to them since.

Breath of the Wild trashing ultimate means nothing in this argument, it's not Wind Waker. Ultimate thrashed another Zelda game on its way there, so yeah it's ultimately Zelda games, but Smash has beat Zelda plenty of times.

Finally, don't let Ultimate's inability to put up the same ridiculous numbers on its opponents as the other top games fool you, it will still win the matches it's supposed to, it just doesn't have the same respect going for it in a contest named Game of the Decade (a title Smash really has no claim to anywhere, but came much closer to here). We're not over Smash, the opposite was always a bold statement right on top of a contest that was dominated by characters in Smash even in low tier matches. People used that argument to pick Odyssey above it and Smash effortlessly blew past it.

I think the only instance you could argue for Wind Waker > Melee would be in a contest where somehow Wind Waker was the strongest Zelda game and even then, it's a huge stretch, it still took Brawl > Melee backlash to barely push Majora's Mask to victory. That contest obviously never happens though, so it's a moot point.

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My argument was that Smash being higher than Zelda in the hierarchy is laughable if BOTW can SFF Ultimate so hard. I can't see WW being that much weaker than BOTW and Melee being that much stronger than Ultimate. And yeah I'm not putting much stock into matches that happened more than a decade ago.

When I said this site is over Smash, I tempered it by saying KIND OF. It's not as big a deal as it was when Brawl came out but obviously this site still loves it some Smash. Then again yeah I completely forgot about the LBW match, it just doesn't stick out as blatantly SFF as Ultimate faced against BOTW.

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Ignoring that we probably change our opinions very little here, the decade old matches just show that it's possible for both sides to SFF each other, shown clearly by Melee SFF killing Wind Waker twice before being SFF killed by Ocarina of Time two rounds later.

Melee doesn't have to be much stronger than Ultimate and WW much weaker than BotW because of the SFF you mention yourself. BotW also SFF killed the stronger Majora's Mask making everything in GotD1 look like a joke at face value. SFF is absolutely cruesome in some of these Nintendo matches, and you're using a select few of them to argue that the blowout that was Melee > Wind Waker should have somehow completely changed here.

I also think Ultimate would have looked a little bit better in a contest not titled Game of the Decade though it'd still be crushed badly, but this is besides the point.

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Friendly reminder that Wind Waker was very close to Melee in 2004, too. It isn't winning a 1-on-1 match.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

Ignoring that we probably change our opinions very little here, the decade old matches just show that it's possible for both sides to SFF each other, shown clearly by Melee SFF killing Wind Waker twice before being SFF killed by Ocarina of Time two rounds later.

Melee doesn't have to be much stronger than Ultimate and WW much weaker than BotW because of the SFF you mention yourself. BotW also SFF killed the stronger Majora's Mask making everything in GotD1 look like a joke at face value. SFF is absolutely cruesome in some of these Nintendo matches, and you're using a select few of them to argue that the blowout that was Melee > Wind Waker should have somehow completely changed here.

I also think Ultimate would have looked a little bit better in a contest not titled Game of the Decade though it'd still be crushed badly, but this is besides the point.

Yeah I realized the middle point soon after I posted, plus Melee might have increased in strength again since 2015. I think I'd still pull the trigger on the upset but I shouldn't argue for it so hard.

Still don't put much stock in 2009, since not only was that contest forever ago but also lol 4-ways. That was the contest where Brawl destroyed MGS4 one round and then lost to it the minute Twilight Princess showed up, plus Metroid Prime performing much worse than it has since.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Friendly reminder that Wind Waker was very close to Melee in 2004, too. It isn't winning a 1-on-1 match.

First off, I wasn't here. Second off, StarCraft completely messed up that division.

To think 2015 might have been our most "legit" all-inclusive games contest even with all the rallies...

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SMB/SSB in the Series Contest has always seemed like one of the only rSFF matches to me, for what it's worth. I've never bought Smash (and more importantly Sonic) being that strong relative to the rest of the field in 2006.

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Now I realize how much of this board I have disrespected by dismissing decade-old stats just because, when that's the whole point. Time to scram I guess.

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MetalmindStats posted...

I'm confused about what you think has changed between GotD, where Undertale notably didn't catch any rallies of even slight significance, and now.

Leonhart4 posted...

I would. Tumblr doesn't exist the way it did in 2015. Did you see anything resembling a rally when it was losing round 1 in GotD2?

I'm aware of that. Just as I'm aware Draven got utterly destroyed in 2018 with no signs of any outsider caring for him.

My point is that danger is always latent for rallyable entries. It's just a matter of them managing to get traction or not.

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Although on a side note, the fact Ultimate failed to double a handheld Zelda that failed to leave much lasting impact if anything reinforces the Zelda > Smash hierarchy.

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Wind Waker didn't just get SFFed by Melee in 2009, it got nearly doubled twice. It's also lost every Gamecube poll we've ever had. They could be sorta close in strength but it's clearly not ever winning that match.

Also, Wind Waker in 2015's x-stat value runs through FFVI, which we assume got SFFed by FFVII. However FFVI's value was assigned it probably isn't worth taking that seriously even by x-stats standards. There's a bonus poll you could use to try to adjust but IIRC even that had some notable offsite influence.

Not sure why franchise hierarchies are being taken so seriously after Super Metroid almost beat Majora's Mask.

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Again, Zelda is definitely above Smash overall, but not all Zelda games are. I wouldn't use 2009 or 4-ways to argue for exact results, but it's pretty damn clear that Wind Waker wasn't close to Melee in the Nintendo hierarchy whatever the exact distance. It's weird that you're bringing the Brawl vs. MGS4 matches up as an argument for dismissing 4-ways results though, because it's pretty simply just Brawl getting hit by LFF with TP there and yet that match is another case of Smash beating Zelda.

ALBW is tough to call, it missed 2015 completely then had two matches with possible SFF in 2020, but it was GotY here.

Saying you disrespect anyone by trying to dismiss stats is a huge stretch, I'm just saying I don't see any reason for it to have changed, if anything, the gap should be greater.


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People adore ALBW, and it did win GotY. Its probably like sixth or seventh in the Zelda rankings here. The Nintendo hierarchy is just going to be the Nintendo hierarchy.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

It makes me sad LBW isnt more liked. Its legitimately one of the best games ever made. The world switching is very well done and its by far the best use of 3D on that system.

I think it's very well regarded, just that maybe not a lot of people played it overall. Maybe they'll do a remake/re-release for Switch.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Now I realize how much of this board I have disrespected by dismissing decade-old stats just because, when that's the whole point. Time to scram I guess.

Feel free to stay gone

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The hierarchy doesn't mean all the games/characters in a series completely outclasses another series. It more has to do with SFF implications (even then it's not an exact science). For example, Samus/Metroid is pretty low on the Nintendo hierarchy and while she struggles to SFF against most Nintendo opponents, that doesn't mean she loses to them.

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LMS says silly things sometimes but unless someone is acting maliciously we should be welcoming, not just because they're stubborn about non-existent internet points.

charmander6000 posted... The hierarchy doesn't mean all the games/characters in a series completely outclasses another series. It more has to do with SFF implications (even then it's not an exact science). For example, Samus/Metroid is pretty low on the Nintendo hierarchy and while she struggles to SFF against most Nintendo opponents, that doesn't mean she loses to them.

Samus may be high, but most Metroid games are low. It's difficult to say for series since it's been so long since we've had a proper idea of whole series strength. You know what that means, Best Series Ever II coming 2021!

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The fans want more villains before they want more series, so let's give them what they want

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