Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1365

(+) Yeah! (+)

Leonhart4 posted...

The problem is that most people never visit the front page anymore. Google searches take people to specific boards or FAQs.

Yeah even site regulars usually just go straight to their board of choice, bypassing the front page altogether.

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I feel like we've suggested having the matches on all pages somehow before, but apparently that is just not going to happen.

Rallied people would be much better if they stayed around and didn't just vote on the specific days.

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I feel like Allen thinks it would be too intrusive and it would just annoy people, but who knows. It gets suggested to him every contest now and he isn't doing it.

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Too many things addressed in the last 50+ posts:

pjbasis posted...

Ghost of Tsushima vs Pokemon Sun/Moon who ya got

I wouldn't be surprised if Ghost of Tsushima pushes 70% on Gen 7.

FFXV and Pokmon S/M have aged like milk.

LusterSoldier posted...

2008 - 52.10% for Super Smash Bros. Brawl over Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots

Man! Who would've thought Persona 4 would surpass these two games a decade later?

2008 was such a strong year back in the day, and now pretty much nothing from that year is worth a thing in this day and age. Unless I'm forg-- Oh wait! There's Fallout 3... I still wonder why it's the strongest in the series.

As far as votals go...

You can see how Allen is constantly trying to improve the site, but some things sure need to be prioritized if we specifically want new blood around here. Contests' awareness is the main thing. Sure, it's awesome to have cool new features over the whole site, but they seem to just affect regular users instead of attracting passersby.

Other than that, if message boards are truly not that appealing anymore, then there's not much that can be done. But there's still potential in the previous things.

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I wouldn't guarantee Persona 4 would beat Brawl!

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Fallout 3 probably does now though!

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I still visit the main page! Also strange that FF7R broke a record with that win on that poll. Proof that FF always wins in this site.

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It makes sense, until the last three years you only got them if it was going to be quite close. BotW and Skyrim were both doubling their nearest opponents, had their been a poll it would have gotten ugly.

Its a shame there was no ALBW vs. TLOU poll. Based on FO3/MGS4/SSBB and RDR2/GoW/SSBU, Id say ALBW wins with 51-53%.

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I often don't remember to visit the front page if it's not contest season.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

Fallout 3 probably does now though!

Does it? Feels like its on the decline after 76.

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All three games have probably declined a good bit since 2008, but Fallout 3 probably has held up the best, if I had to guess.

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But what about completely separate entry Persona 4 Golden


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pjbasis posted...

But what about completely separate entry Persona 4 Golden

Now you're talkin'

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swirIdude posted...

I often don't remember to visit the front page if it's not contest season.

Wow, seriously? First thing I do when checking GameFAQs on a daily basis is vote in the poll and see the most popular topics from the games that are in it (Smash, Cyberpunk, Fate G/O, etc. Actually, it's weird seeing Fate G/O, FE:Heroes and FF Brave Exvius/Record Keeper that much on the front page...).

Lightning Strikes posted...

Its a shame there was no ALBW vs. TLOU poll. Based on FO3/MGS4/SSBB and RDR2/GoW/SSBU, Id say ALBW wins with 51-53%.

Back then or now? Back then I wouldn't have given ALBW more than 51%. Nowadays I'd say 55%.

Okay! So:

Metal Gear Solid IV
Fallout 3
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Grand Theft Auto IV
Persona 4

How would you rank them in terms of 2021 strength?

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P4 > Brawl > MGS4 > FO3 > GTA4?

I'm no contest expert though. It might just as well be Brawl > P4 > FO3 > MGS4 > GTA4

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GTA4 would be fodder now. That's the one thing I'd be confident about.

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Persona 4 > Brawl/MGS4/Fallout 3 seems like a really hard sell. Those games are weaker and Persona 4 is stronger but that's a major gap to make up.

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GTA4 is the weakest game of the 3D GTA era i think.

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Persona 4 > Brawl/MGS4/Fallout 3 means you either think Xenoblade beats those three or Persona 4 is a good bit stronger than Golden, neither of which I'm prepared to buy into.

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i guess you could argue Brawl beats Xenoblade because it's Nintendo vs Nintendo.

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Brawl and Fallout 3 are probably a step too far for Persona 4 but MGS4 might not be. 2015 x-stats have that as only a 55.5% match in MGS4s favor.

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Brawl is probably still the strongest out of those games. I think Fallout 3 might be within striking distance of MGS4 though. GTAIV lol.

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Im always surprised how much Fallout 3 gets underestimated on here sometimes. Its absolutely Bethesdas second strongest game, just a step below Skyrim. I dont even buy Fallout 76 having an impact. It didnt tear Fallout 4 to pieces and that is far closer than 3 is. Its also apparently fine now.

Forget within striking distance, Fallout 3 crushes MGS4 now. It was within striking distance in 2008, and if you remove Brawl from the poll it might even win. I have never nought the idea that Fallout 3 overperformed against Brawl (also there can still be Brawl resentment without that happening, it just means those people would have voted for Fallout 3 anyway), weve seen it look legit time and time again. I would say:

Fallout 3
Brawl
Persona 4
GTAIV
MGS4

The last two are pretty interchangeable. GTAIV was behind double Nintendo SFF in GOTD1 so was likely very undervalued. I dont see why it would be THAT much weaker - MGS4 doesnt beat GTAV/RDR/RDR2, so does it best GTAIV? Either way its one of the biggest drops in strength on the site.

Advokaiser posted...

Back then or now? Back then I wouldn't have given ALBW more than 51%. Nowadays I'd say 55%.

Back then, I was using maths based on the two nearest comparable polls. We even have another Nintendo/Sony/Rockstar poll now, and multiplatform games tend to break pretty evenly.


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Lightning Strikes posted...

It was within striking distance in 2008, and if you remove Brawl from the poll it might even win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3501-division-8-final-ssbb-cod-4-mgs4-fallout-3

Was closer to Modern Warfare than MGS4 in 2009.
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Mac Arrowny posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3501-division-8-final-ssbb-cod-4-mgs4-fallout-3

Was closer to Modern Warfare than MGS4 in 2009.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3364-best-of-2008-game-of-the-year-final-vote

All that says is that Modern Warfare split the vote, which is pretty understandable - both big PC/360 games.

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GTAIV > MGS4 not happening.

MGS4 probably beats any GTA on this site, let alone IV.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3364-best-of-2008-game-of-the-year-final-vote

All that says is that Modern Warfare split the vote, which is pretty understandable - both big PC/360 games.

GotY doesn't correlate to contest strength on a 1:1 basis, so I wouldn't trust that poll either. Fallout 3 is legit. It probably beats MGS4 just because that game has taken a hard dive. I'd take it to beat Brawl now because it probably suffers from more anti-voting than pro-voting now that it's doubly obsolete, but it was absolutely benefitting from anti-votes in GOTD1, just like TP and MM did.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

Im always surprised how much Fallout 3 gets underestimated on here sometimes. Its absolutely Bethesdas second strongest game, just a step below Skyrim. I dont even buy Fallout 76 having an impact. It didnt tear Fallout 4 to pieces and that is far closer than 3 is. Its also apparently fine now.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7924-division-2-round-1-fallout-4-vs-vvvvvv
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7983-division-2-round-2-mass-effect-2-vs-fallout-4

That's Fallout 4's entire poll history since Fallout 76 hit. One could make an argument to throw out the result against ME2 but that leaves a single result against VVVVVV that tells us nothing. So at best, we have no idea where Fallout 4 stands. At worst, the ME2 result is real and Fallout 4 is really weak.
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There's no way MGS4 is below GTAIV

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Actually yeah I'd probably pick Fallout 3 over MGS4 on further reflection, given the logic I used to pick Dark Souls > Skyrim in GOTD worked so well. Should note though that in my adjusted 2015 x-stats MGS4 still finishes in the top 35% of the bracket, even after I pulled Chrono Trigger's whole division down a good deal - to the point it has Wind Waker and Twilight Princess beating Melee (which I could totally see after how badly Breath of the Wild destroyed Ultimate. I think this site is KIND OF over Smash, honestly).

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Lightning Strikes posted...

GTAIV
MGS4

Even if we run with your notion that the notorious black sheep of the 3D GTAs hasn't taken even the slightest hit in strength from no longer being the latest of its series, are you really going to take 40% on Super Mario Galaxy over 41% on Kingdom Hearts II? It's not like you can hold MGS' death against MGS4 when you don't think Fallout 76 has affected Fallout 3, especially given that 2020 MGSV looked about on par with 2015 MGSV.

I'd personally take Persona 4 and probably even MGS4 over Brawl, but those scenarios are a lot more debatable given how long it's been since we've properly seen Brawl in action.

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Going by my adjusted 2015 x-stats, The Witcher 3 went up by 13% holding Mario Galaxy 2 constant. This would mean Skyrim went down 5% and Dark Souls went up 5%. The Skyrim/TLOU ratio is basically the same in my adjusted 2015 stats and 2020, at least if I'm remembering 2020 correctly (Dark Souls got 58% on The Last of Us and then 45% on Skyrim, right? And then Skyrim got 45% on The Witcher 3?).

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Im relatively high on Galaxy because it keeps running into higher ranking Nintendo games so yes, I would take that.

MGS4 hurt MGS4, the turn was happening long before the series died. We already knew it was weakening.

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And GTAIV wasn't. Clearly. It's not like this site hates GTA or anything, nope!

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MetalmindStats posted...

are you really going to take 40% on Super Mario Galaxy over 41% on Kingdom Hearts II?

That sounds like a trick question... 'cause I'd surely take SMG over KHII.

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Advokaiser posted...

That sounds like a trick question... 'cause I'd surely take SMG over KHII.

You're getting dangerously close to saying you'd take Galaxy over Melee then!

People forget how strong KH2 is.

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Yeah, that's KHII's match to win for sure.

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SMG is underrated and I hope it one day gets a path where it doesnt immediately run into higher tier Nintendo so it can prove it!

Hey Allen, SMG vs. KHII pls ty.

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My gut thought is Galaxy > Melee > KH2.

No idea if the "numbers" back me up but that's what I'd go with without thinking too hard. I do imagine there's not a tremendous gap between the three but Galaxy just had a re-release.

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Huh... Just checked and you're right. Interesting.

Guess I get carried away with Sora hate + series' (partial) decline.

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Seanchan posted...

My gut thought is Galaxy > Melee > KH2.

No idea if the "numbers" back me up but that's what I'd go with without thinking too hard. I do imagine there's not a tremendous gap between the three but Galaxy just had a re-release.

You're facing a problem very similar to when I thought way back San Andreas could beat FFX the former may have one of the biggest overall playrates and relative popularity, but it doesn't truly translate to contest strength, mainly because of the site's bias.

Galaxy > Melee would pretty much imply that's the strongest 3D Mario game, but it's really not, even if it has every reason to be. Every reason, except nostalgia (which is what applies to SM64 in this case).

The Switch re-release doesn't really do much because those are games that pretty much everyone has already played by now and are very well-known.

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For what it's worth in my adjusted stats Galaxy gets 48% on KH2.

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Mario games tend to mirror very well what we think of the console they're on and the Wii didn't age that well. It is unfortunate that Galaxy has ran into Nintendo games each time and I do believe it would be great to have it back again, but Kingdom Hearts II is a very high bar. Solid contender for strongest game never released on a Nintendo console.

Now Galaxy > Melee would definitely never happen. I think the Brawl > TP > Galaxy matches in GotD should be enough evidence for that one.

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Then its a good thing that Galaxy is now on the Switch!

FWIW, if we assume a consistent Dragon Age, then a non-SFFd SMG is indeed (slightly) stronger than KHII if my maths are right.

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Has the next contest been hinted at by Allen at all recently ?

Yeah, I don't think that port's gonna do much good for Galaxy, unfortunately.

I would not assume a constant Dragon Age either. That series fell.


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Not that Im aware of but based on the pattern youd probably expect it later this year. Weve been getting new contests starting 15-16 months after the last one ends so maybe around August.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

Yeah, I don't think that port's gonna do much good for Galaxy, unfortunately.

I would not assume a constant Dragon Age either. That series fell.

Did it fall (by 2015)? Dragon Age was nearly brand new in 2010, if anything youd expect 2015 (before people turned on Inquisition) to be the peak. Now, if were talking about now, oh yeah its weaker. But youd think that 2015 Dragon Age equals or beats 2010 Dragon Age, no?

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I wouldn't expect re-releases to help many Mario games since they have absurd play rates to start with

Galaxy 2 could've actually used it so of course Nintendo didn't do that

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If the years between 2015 and now are as kind to KHII as the years between GotD1 and 2015 were to KH1 I'd go so far to say that Galaxy *should* be the favorite there.

It's a pretty ballsy thing to bet on though!

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