Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1365

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1365-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife

Still the most important result in contest history!

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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So we just got the top 2 from each poll it would seem. Yeah, this was an overly simple format.

Wouldn't be surprised now if it's found unnecessary to run this again because FFVIIR will win regardless.

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Ghost of Tsushima very impressive. Animal Crossing doing very poorly considering it has the least amount of fanbase overlap with any of the other games in the poll. I imagine it will do considerably worse if it were only up against FF7R and Ghost of Tsushima.

Dunno, hard to judge fanbase overlap too much here I think.

I could see that final three happening, because it'd be the winner of each poll, so I guess we'll see.

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I think Tsushima and Animal Crossing are close enough to warrant a final three. I feel like it's only when the winner has blown away the field by 10%+ that Allen hasn't seen the need to do a final three.

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Yeah, I wouldn't doubt it any other year either, but this year seemed more low effort "let's get it over with" than usual.

Though the winner is the most important part, so yeah, probably!

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I'd love to see how Ghost of Tsushima would do in a contest.

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LeonhartFour posted...

Still the most important result in contest history!

Also, yes, this no longer has a chance of ever changing.

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New Leaf was in Persona 5's division in GotD2 and is projected to get right around doubled by the latter.

FFVII remake currently has 62% on New Horizons here. I'd figure New Horizons is at least as strong as New Leaf and FFVII remake probably has overlap with Persona 5 Royal in this poll if nothing else.

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Just for the heck of it, 2015 contest x-stats with adjustments I made:

1) Chrono Trigger 48.93
2) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 47.95
3) Final Fantasy VII 44.59
4) Pokmon Red & Blue 43.26
5) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 42.68
6) Super Mario World 42.4
7) Super Mario Bros. 3 41.96
8) Super Mario 64 41.96
9) Final Fantasy VI 39.08
10) The Legend of Zelda: Majoras Mask 38.41
11) Super Metroid 38
12) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 36.22
13) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 36.15
14) Super Smash Bros. Melee 35.93
15) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 34.93
16) Final Fantasy X 33.74
17) Final Fantasy IX 33.12
18) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 33.11
19) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 32.49
20) Metal Gear Solid 32.49
21) Kingdom Hearts 32.4
22) Kingdom Hearts II 32.12
23) Pokmon Gold & Silver 31.61
24) Metroid Prime 31.52
25) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 31.48
26) Resident Evil 4 31.14
27) Super Smash Bros. for Wii U 30.96
28) Super Mario Galaxy 30.71
29) The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 30.18
30) Shadow of the Colossus 30.17
31) Mega Man X 30.04
32) Fallout 3 29.97
33) Final Fantasy IV 29.49
34) Final Fantasy VIII 28.65
35) Final Fantasy Tactics 28.34
36) Grand Theft Auto V 28.34
37) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 28.25
38) GoldenEye (1997) 28.2
39) Mass Effect 27.93
40) Okami 27.92
41) Super Mario Galaxy 2 27.47
42) Tetris 27.39
43) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 26.57
44) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 26.52
45) Half-Life 2 26.41
46) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 26.3
47) Fallout: New Vegas 26.09
48) Chrono Cross - 26
49) BioShock 25.89
50) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 25.88
51) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 25.84
52) Paper Mario 64 25.81
53) EarthBound 25.77
54) The Last of Us 25.68
55) Mass Effect 2 25.58
56) Diablo II 25.56
57) Persona 4 25.16
58) Dark Souls I 25.11
59) StarCraft I 25.01
60) Tales of Symphonia 24.88
61) Banjo-Kazooie 24.8
62) Xenogears 24.63
63) Red Dead Redemption 24.6
64) Portal 2 24.5
65) Resident Evil 24.45
66) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 24.07
67) Half-Life 24.02
68) Resident Evil 2 23.93
69) Final Fantasy XII 23.91
70) Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddys Kong Quest 23.9
71) Xenoblade 23.73
72) Batman: Arkham City 23.63
73) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas 23.49
74) Mass Effect 3 23.44
75) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 23.32
76) The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 23.27
77) Portal 23.2
78) BioShock Infinite 22.99
79) Fire Emblem: Awakening 22.89
80) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 22.4
81) Suikoden II 22.16
82) Dragon Age: Origins 22.09
83) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos 22.01
84) World of Warcraft 21.81
85) Shenmue 21.35
86) Borderlands 2 21.33
87) Bloodborne 21.24
88) Perfect Dark 20.31
89) Skies of Arcadia 20.04
90) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 19.99
91) Silent Hill 2 19.97
92) Mother 3 19.82
93) Pokmon X & Y 19.81
94) Halo: Combat Evolved 19.43
95) Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate 19.09
96) Demons Souls 19.07
97) Baldurs Gate II: Shadows of Amn 18.69
98) Valkyria Chronicles 18.52
99) Shovel Knight 18.19
100) Assassins Creed II 17.95
101) Deus Ex 17.83
102) Bayonetta 2 17.72
103) Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King 17.69
104) Minecraft 16.82
105) Mario Kart 8 16.75
106) Civilization V 16.72
107) Halo 3 16.69
108) Team Fortress 2 16.48
109) Undertale 16.32
110) Super Mario Maker 16.3
111) Persona 3 16.02
112) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: Trials & Tribulations 15.74
113) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 15.61
114) The World Ends with You 14.77
115) Journey 14.21
116) Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal 13.85
117) Splatoon 13.6
118) Animal Crossing: New Leaf 13.57
119) The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 13.37
120) Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings 13.29
121) The Walking Dead 13.24
122) Planescape: Torment 12.97
123) Destiny 12.76
124) Life is Strange 11.38
125) 999: Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors 11.17
126) Zero Escape: Virtues Last Reward 10.7
127) Cave Story 10.23
128) Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 8.6

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AxemRedRanger posted...

New Leaf was in Persona 5's division in GotD2 and is projected to get right around doubled by the latter.

FFVII remake currently has 62% on New Horizons here. I'd figure New Horizons is at least as strong as New Leaf and FFVII remake probably has overlap with Persona 5 Royal in this poll if nothing else.

I'd take New Horizons over New Leaf without thinking.

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To be fair, New Leaf most likely got a boost during GotD2 thanks to New Horizons.

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Hearthstone was dead last by any metric regardless

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Yeah, I'd imagine New Horizons being way ahead of New Leaf.

Ghost of Tsushima is looking surprisingly good.

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Really, really good showing from Tsushima. Pretty decent from Hades (which Id say overlaps with AC as its a Switch console exclusive).

Regarding New Leaf vs. New Horizons, the latter is obviously stronger, but given the timing its hard not to imagine New Leaf not just acting as a New Horizons proxy in the last contest.

Disappointed in so few polls this year, but at least we should get at least one more. At least bring back the expansion poll from last year, there were certainly enough to qualify (and both Xenoblade and Pikmin 3 would fit there - also Doom Eternals DLC). Well, it was a weird year, maybe well see more next time.

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I just realized we didn't see 13 Sentinels in a poll either, and I could see that as a game this site would take to.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Hearthstone was dead last by any metric regardless

Yeah I didn't have to adjust a lot of the bracket too much, which is a relief and a half. Part of me wonders if the RBY/SMB3/SMW trio should be adjusted upwards, but they're in a surprisingly good place considering.

Half-Life 2, Demon's Souls, Fallout 3's fourpack, BioShock, Silent Hill 2, and Sonic 2's fourpack all received the most adjustments. Past that, I adjusted Chrono Trigger down to 51% on Ocarina of Time instead of 54% (seriously guys, what was up with that?) which resulted in that whole division going down, then I adjusted FFVI up 1% on CT and its eightpack accordingly (this resulted in a net negative) and similarly with Super Mario RPG with its eightpack being adjusted accordingly. I kept Metroid Prime's (and therefore Morrowind's), GoldenEye's (and therefore Diablo II's), Final Fantasy VIII's (and therefore Vice City's) and Resident Evil 4's (and its eightpack as a result) numbers on CT the same as the official adjusted stats which resulted in all those games going down too.

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I demand Allen find another 11,000 votes for Yakuza: Like a Dragon.

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I said this before but man, the next contest is going to have so many good election memes.

Leonhart4 posted...

I just realized we didn't see 13 Sentinels in a poll either, and I could see that as a game this site would take to.

Thats a very good point. It feels like this year would have actually been a better year to have platform awards (combining the two gens) than last year. Yakuza would probably win an Xbox poll which is funny.

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New Horizons seems to be the pinnacle of Animal Crossing. People who have played the game, really, really love it, for some reason.

It seems to be a game for everyone, much like Mario games.

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1) Chrono Trigger 48.93
2) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 47.95
3) Final Fantasy VII 44.59
4) Pokmon Red & Blue 43.26
5) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 42.68

If these adjustments are accurate, how in the world would people say with a straight face that this was a weak OoT?

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Weak is a relative term, of course. OoT was dominant in 2009, and it legitimately looked like it could lose to CT in 2015.

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Advokaiser posted...

New Horizons seems to be the pinnacle of Animal Crossing. People who have played the game, really, really love it, for some reason.

It seems to be a game for everyone, much like Mario games.

While customizing your island is quite fun, I don't see the game as that much of a step up from previous games. The series was already huge, both Wild World and New Leaf sold over 10 million games each. I think it came out at the right time. COVID allowed people who don't play this genre to experience it.

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Switch is also huge and people had been waiting to play Animal Crossing on it.

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Hades is only on PC and Switch right now. Since this is GameFAQs, Hades's strength is mostly going to be coming from the Switch release. The claim is that Hades will lose some of that support to Animal Crossing.
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I am happy that Yakuza 7 is in the poll!

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Leonhart4 posted...

Weak is a relative term, of course. OoT was dominant in 2009, and it legitimately looked like it could lose to CT in 2015.

I think you're underestimating how strong Chrono Trigger has become over the past decade. Just look at the gap between OoT and the rest of the field.

If any game looked "weak" in 2015 was FFVII (and arguably Skyrim).

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and yet based on those stats OoT wasn't much stronger than FFVII...!

(although FFVII looked pretty fine to me for the most part)

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Safer_777 posted...

I am happy that Yakuza 7 is in the poll!

I got it for Christmas but haven't started it yet. Seems to be getting a lot of praise which kinda surprised me tbh.

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1v1 GotY final poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8328-

I was disappointed that Animal Crossing wasn't in today's poll. This really should have been a 3-way poll instead.
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Holy shit FFVII Remake. Currently running over 60% right now with this early vote.

And now it's fallen back down to earth again.
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Nice to see "FFVII" winning again. FFVIIR isn't the remake I dreamed of but it's a very very good game and deserved a GOTY award.

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FF7R Power Hour ended early. It's in freefall right now.
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what happened to ffvii trends

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Trend chart from yesterday's GotY poll:

Time | AC: NH | FFVIIR | Tsushima | Hades | P5R | Yakuza
EBV | 16.22% | 31.08% | 20.95% | 12.16% | 13.51% | 6.08%
PHV | 19.46% | 28.97% | 21.30% | 11.89% | 11.35% | 7.03%
FNV | 17.69% | 29.01% | 21.80% | 13.45% | 10.53% | 7.52%
BSV | 17.69% | 30.99% | 21.56% | 14.33% | 9.43% | 6.00%
DSV | 18.42% | 29.59% | 21.37% | 13.74% | 9.52% | 7.37%
ASV | 18.77% | 29.17% | 21.25% | 14.06% | 10.65% | 6.10%
SNV | 18.75% | 32.97% | 21.55% | 10.13% | 10.34% | 6.25%

Based on yesterday's trends, I'd expect FFVII Remake to finish today's poll with a higher percentage than it has right now.
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Well, FF7R certainly isn't a beastly game.

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No matter how much content it has people are still just gonna look at it as Part 1.

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Remakes tend to perform poorly, relative to the original.

Yes I know this is the second year that a remake has won.

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If FF7R was a complete game, it would undoubtedly be the #1 game on the site for the next decade at least. Even still, it was easily the best game that came out this year, good to see it dominating GotY

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charmander6000 posted...

Remakes tend to perform poorly, relative to the original.

Resident Evil 2 Remake is almost certainly stronger than the original.

RE2 is the exception. FFVIIR is fine, but it's only one part of the game. This is pretty impressive for Ghost of Tsushima.

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FF7R is a complete game. Its the first game in a series, not the first episode of a game.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

FF7R is a complete game. Its the first game in a series, not the first episode of a game.

It's a complete game but it's also going to be regarded as a part of a whole by the fanbase.

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Okay, so...question time, what do we think wins, Ghost of Tsushima vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses?

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I am surprised that The Last Of Us 2 wasn't even in yesterday's poll since it seems that it got so many praises.

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Advokaiser posted...

I think you're underestimating how strong Chrono Trigger has become over the past decade. Just look at the gap between OoT and the rest of the field.

If any game looked "weak" in 2015 was FFVII (and arguably Skyrim).

The official adjusted stats have Chrono Trigger getting 54% on Ocarina of Time. I adjusted CT down to 51% on OOT and its whole division went down accordingly.

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Skyrim looked good in 2015.

These 1v1 final polls mean very little in contests, we've seen before.

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Leonhart4 posted...

It's a complete game but it's also going to be regarded as a part of a whole by the fanbase.

Yeah, youre right. I think there are other factors in its strength though, I think this is about where we can expect a strong new FF game to be.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Skyrim looked good in 2015.

These 1v1 final polls mean very little in contests, we've seen before.

They were a big precursor of Fallout 3 doing so well against Brawl. The one people cite as a bad example was Three Houses, but that went out in a match that was first party Nintendo RPG vs. first party Nintendo RPG.

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