Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355

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Advokaiser
05/03/20 2:25:06 PM
#254:


I think The Witcher has a safe win there. I'd give it at least a 53%.

The most debatable match for me is Smash vs. Mario, followed by Dark Souls vs. Skyrim. Other than that, it's just about predicting the percentages right.

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ZeldaTPLink
05/03/20 2:43:21 PM
#255:


I think Skyrim vs Pokemon and ME2 vs RE2 are pretty dangerous too.
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Nintendogs
05/03/20 2:45:42 PM
#256:


SuperNiceDog posted...
The hardest match is Persona 5 vs Witcher 3. I mean I know Witcher is the favorite but can Persona 5 actually win?

Right now I have Persona 5 with 51%. Would Persona 5 do better than 60.2% against Mario Galaxy 2? I am not sure..
Do you believe in the Sore Thumb Factor?
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LeonhartFour
05/03/20 10:04:13 PM
#257:


_SecretSquirrel posted...

INSIDE = Obra Dinn


The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 50.00%
Resident Evil 2 - 42.48%
Bloodborne - 42.34%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%
DOOM - 36.05%
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 35.66%
Stardew Valley 28.30%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - 26.56%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 17.01%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - 16.49%
Destiny 16.32%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 15.93%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair - 14.33%
Return of the Obra Dinn 10.05%
INSIDE - 10.05%

ZenOfThunder posted...
can i get uhhhh sonic mania = botw

i need this so i can finally sleep peacefully


Persona 5 50.00%
Sonic Mania 32.11%
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 32.11%
Assassins Creed IV: Black Flag 28.94%
Sid Meiers Civilization V 25.21%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 23.93%
Super Meat Boy 22.58%
Heavy Rain 21.71%
Slay the Spire 14.02%
Final Fantasy XV - 12.69%
Hollow Knight - 12.58%
Halo: Reach - 9.72%
The Outer Worlds - 9.62%
Tales of Berseria - 9.36%
Life Is Strange - 8.53%
What Remains of Edith Finch - 6.43%

tgs2 posted...
Keep BD=OT and have BotW triple DQXI.

Pretty boring request, but fun to see a guideline.


The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey - 36.39%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 25.00%
Monster Hunter: World - 23.36%
Devil May Cry 5 - 20.88%
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 20.65%
Shovel Knight - 19.79%
Final Fantasy XV 19.76%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy - 19.64%
Octopath Traveler - 19.64%
Hollow Knight 19.59%
Undertale - 18.35%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 17.79%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch - 17.11%
Halo: Reach 15.14%
The Outer Worlds 14.98%
Tales of Berseria 14.57%
Dragon's Dogma - 14.09%
Bastion - 14.05%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series - 13.41%
Life is Strange 13.28%
Mortal Kombat 11 - 10.21%
What Remains of Edith Finch 10.02%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC - 9.67%

Feel free to mix and match more than just two opponents if you like! Still got a day left to make the comparisons you want to help your bracket out!
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transience
05/03/20 10:11:22 PM
#258:


DMC5 = Bayonetta 2 = Bioshock Infinite = Stardew Valley

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xyzzy
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transience
05/03/20 10:23:32 PM
#259:


how about assuming that this poll holds up exactly?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4


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xyzzy
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WarThaNemesis2
05/03/20 10:27:55 PM
#260:


transience posted...
how about assuming that this poll holds up exactly?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4

....Poor Skyrim.

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LeonhartFour
05/03/20 10:34:53 PM
#261:


transience posted...
DMC5 = Bayonetta 2 = Bioshock Infinite = Stardew Valley


Here we go

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey - 49.32%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version - 46.53%
NieR: Automata - 44.79%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%
The Last of Us - 39.34%
Batman: Arkham City - 35.22%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 32.08%
Diablo III - 28.89%
Devil May Cry 5 - 28.30%
Bayonetta 2 - 28.30%
BioShock Infinite - 28.30%
Stardew Valley 28.30%
Divinity: Original Sin II - 28.01%
Shovel Knight - 26.82%
Octopath Traveler - 26.62%
Rayman Legends - 26.08%
Celeste - 25.85%
Undertale - 24.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 24.11%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%
Dragon's Dogma - 19.10%
Terraria - 18.30%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 17.91%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft - 17.24%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 17.01%
Night in the Woods - 16.79%
Destiny 16.32%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 15.93%
Crusader Kings II - 14.28%
Mortal Kombat 11 - 13.84%
Return of the Obra Dinn 10.05%
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transience
05/03/20 10:49:27 PM
#262:


LeonhartFour posted...
Here we go

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey - 49.32%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version - 46.53%
NieR: Automata - 44.79%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%
The Last of Us - 39.34%
Batman: Arkham City - 35.22%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 32.08%
Diablo III - 28.89%
Devil May Cry 5 - 28.30%
Bayonetta 2 - 28.30%
BioShock Infinite - 28.30%
Stardew Valley 28.30%
Divinity: Original Sin II - 28.01%
Shovel Knight - 26.82%
Octopath Traveler - 26.62%
Rayman Legends - 26.08%
Celeste - 25.85%
Undertale - 24.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 24.11%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%
Dragon's Dogma - 19.10%
Terraria - 18.30%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 17.91%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft - 17.24%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 17.01%
Night in the Woods - 16.79%
Destiny 16.32%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 15.93%
Crusader Kings II - 14.28%
Mortal Kombat 11 - 13.84%
Return of the Obra Dinn 10.05%

bookmark this post (though Zelda being in the way will ruin any chance of comparison)

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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour
05/03/20 10:51:17 PM
#263:


transience posted...
how about assuming that this poll holds up exactly?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4



Final Fantasy XV - 50.00%
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End - 44.22%
Dark Souls III - 34.46%
Overwatch - 22.32%

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 50.00%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 27.15%
Mario Kart 8 - 21.23%
Final Fantasy XV 19.76%
Hollow Knight 19.59%
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End - 17.48%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn - 16.83%
God of War - 16.53%
Xenoblade Chronicles - 16.53%
Halo: Reach 15.14%
The Outer Worlds 14.98%
Fallout: New Vegas - 14.78%
Tales of Berseria 14.57%
Dark Souls III - 13.62%
Journey - 13.59%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 13.34%
Life is Strange 13.28%
Ori and the Blind Forest - 10.08%
What Remains of Edith Finch 10.02%
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 9.69%
Crypt of the NecroDancer - 9.58%
Fate/Grand Order - 9.18%
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 8.90%
Overwatch - 8.82%
Subnautica - 8.69%
Nioh - 8.44%
Dishonored - 8.19%
Death Stranding - 7.78%
Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 7.34%
Splatoon 2 - 7.13%
The Stanley Parable - 6.09%
The Talos Principle - 4.99%

yes you read that right, somehow in this situation, GoW = Xenoblade happens by pure coincidence

(well technically GoW beats Xenoblade by like 0.06%)
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LeonhartFour
05/03/20 10:52:02 PM
#264:


transience posted...


bookmark this post (though Zelda being in the way will ruin any chance of comparison)


I think Pokemon's eightpack is a bit too high but other than that it's pretty solid
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transience
05/03/20 11:08:43 PM
#265:


I think a lot of Nier and Pokemon actually

we'll see how Skyrim does

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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour
05/03/20 11:11:35 PM
#266:


it's more the other games in its eightpack that make me balk more than anything else

I don't trust Rayman Legends or Divinity that much
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_SecretSquirrel
05/03/20 11:17:44 PM
#267:


LeonhartFour posted...


yes you read that right, somehow in this situation, GoW = Xenoblade happens by pure coincidence
Oh man, if Xenoblade burst as many brackets as it did in an SFF situation with Three Houses, imagine the freakouts if it takes it to God of War, probably winning in a direct match.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/04/20 8:10:24 AM
#268:


I set my percentages such that Zelda breaks 65% in every match, and Mario Odyssey being the third-strongest game in the bracket.

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deeewooh
05/04/20 8:39:42 AM
#269:


any chance DQXI is stronger than Mass effect 2?

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Leonhart4
05/04/20 9:42:43 AM
#270:


deeewooh posted...
any chance DQXI is stronger than Mass effect 2?

I mean, there's always a chance but I wouldn't pick it.

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ctesjbuvf
05/04/20 9:58:25 AM
#271:


Even if DQXI could beat ME2, I don't think it'd do better on BotW.

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HaRRicH
05/04/20 1:16:28 PM
#272:


Battles will resume on daily at midnight UTC on May 5th (8PM Eastern, 5PM Pacific on May 4th).


Hyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyype.

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lordjers
05/04/20 2:00:06 PM
#273:


So many calculations and ME2/RE2 just gonna come and destroy brackets Day 1.

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transience
05/04/20 2:12:39 PM
#274:


hey Leon, what do we get if Stardew = FFXV?

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xyzzy
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Leonhart4
05/04/20 2:36:11 PM
#275:


transience posted...
hey Leon, what do we get if Stardew = FFXV?

Doing this from my phone so I can't do the whole division but BOTW gets 72.50% on Galaxy 2 and 65.10% on Witcher 3.

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transcience
05/04/20 2:39:04 PM
#276:


you knew where I was going. the more I think about it, this second chance bracket is about Zelda, not about these other close matches.

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iphonesience
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FFDragon
05/04/20 2:41:16 PM
#277:


As someone who almost literally lost their shit during RE2/BB, I don't see any way RE2 beats ME2 tbqh

It would be cool, but this one is stress-free since I don't expect it to win. Every percent is bonus.

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HaRRicH
05/04/20 3:00:16 PM
#278:


I have RE2 in my original bracket and ME2 in my second chance bracket. I'll be happy and mad either way.

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ZeldaTPLink
05/04/20 3:01:33 PM
#279:


HaRRicH posted...
I have RE2 in my original bracket and ME2 in my second chance bracket. I'll be happy and mad either way.

Same. I'm pretty much ignoring my usual bracket while making 2nd chance. I've changed 5 matches iirc.
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Leonhart4
05/04/20 3:08:16 PM
#280:


ME2 all the way

If it turns out to be a suicide mission, it'll be a fitting end.

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davidponte
05/04/20 3:08:28 PM
#281:


Go my re2

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Seanchan
05/04/20 3:13:20 PM
#282:


So how many 2nd chance entries you think we'll have? 2000?

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Leonhart4
05/04/20 3:13:47 PM
#283:


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davidponte
05/04/20 3:14:50 PM
#284:


They were asking in total, not specifically from Luster alts.

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lordjers
05/04/20 3:22:18 PM
#285:


There are just some debated matches where you just have to go all in! As in having the same winner on both brackets.

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ZeldaTPLink
05/04/20 3:33:35 PM
#286:


Nah, one bracket doesn't affect the other and the only thing supporting not changing the bracket is sunk cost fallacy.

RE2 hasn't looked as good as ME2 in the stats and I see no reason to burn 2 brackets on it when I can burn just 1.

That said, this does mean the actual match will give me mixed feelings no matter what.
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lordjers
05/04/20 3:38:21 PM
#287:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
That said, this does mean the actual match will give me mixed feelings no matter what.

That's actually the reason.

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lordjers
05/04/20 3:47:09 PM
#288:


And just because you flip all dubious matches doesn't mean you're gonna get it all right in one bracket or the other.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/04/20 4:09:40 PM
#289:


I have The Witcher 3 reaching the finals in my second chance bracket, but Dark Souls doing so in my main.

Fortunately the only incorrect games I have in Round 4 are GTAV and Nier.

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ZeldaTPLink
05/04/20 4:14:08 PM
#290:


lordjers posted...
And just because you flip all dubious matches doesn't mean you're gonna get it all right in one bracket or the other.

I'm not flipping all dubious ones by default. I'm just making my predictions independent of what I had done before.
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lordjers
05/04/20 4:15:11 PM
#291:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
I'm not flipping all dubious ones by default. I'm just making my predictions independent of what I had done before.

Me too, it's not like I'm doing it out of stubborness.

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inchbytes
05/04/20 4:23:07 PM
#292:


how many hours until it begins?

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ZeldaTPLink
05/04/20 4:27:49 PM
#293:


inchbytes posted...
how many hours until it begins?

3 and a half
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ShortReplies
05/04/20 4:54:03 PM
#295:


How many matches today?
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ctesjbuvf
05/04/20 5:01:11 PM
#296:


2

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tgs2
05/04/20 5:24:11 PM
#297:


Flipped back to ME2 > RE2 after a few days as I feel much better about ME2 in my gut now. Only other match I am doubtful on is Skyrim/Pokemon. Everything else feels set in stone.
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_SecretSquirrel
05/04/20 5:40:45 PM
#298:


I would stick with my RE2 pick that I have in my original bracket, but I have ME2 in second chance because I feel like it benefits from the loss of casual voters due to the break. If nothing else, ME2 is likely the Board 8 favorite, and that's the one group least likely to miss the poll tonight.

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HaRRicH
05/04/20 6:17:39 PM
#299:


RE2 very well could still win. I just think ME2's managed to look A SINGLE BIT better.

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SuperNiceDog
05/04/20 6:41:53 PM
#300:


Nintendogs posted...
Do you believe in the Sore Thumb Factor?

I do believe in the Sore Thumb Factor, thanks @Nintendogs . Yea I realize during P5 vs W3, there will also be 2 other western games in the matches(Skyrim, Dark Souls). Thus P5 will stand out. Ok I am using that rationale to stick with P5

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MechanicalWall
05/04/20 6:45:23 PM
#301:


I take ME2 for no better reason than RE2 beating it looks weird and don't make no sense. I highly doubt any of the remakes/ports make it to top 8.

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LiquidOshawott
05/04/20 7:04:49 PM
#302:


I took RE2 because I thought its wins over Doom and somewhat rallied Bloodborne looked really good. But it was a 51%

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SuperNiceDog
05/04/20 7:08:07 PM
#303:


I took ME2 because I have never played it but the trailer was epic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lx9sPQpjgjU

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SuperNiceDog
05/04/20 7:15:38 PM
#304:


did 2nd chance brackets close? I can't make changes to mine anymore lol

I can't see it

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