Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355

(+) Yeah! (+)

Mass Effect 2 is overperforming

5 minute X-Stats:

Division 1

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 50.00%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age 31.47%
Monster Hunter: World 29.41%
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice 25.99%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy 24.73%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch 21.54%
Final Fantasy XV 19.76%
Hollow Knight 19.59%
Bastion 17.68%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 16.89%
Halo: Reach 15.14%
The Outer Worlds 14.98%
Tales of Berseria 14.57%
Life is Strange 13.28%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC 12.17%
What Remains of Edith Finch 10.02%

Division 2

Mass Effect 2 50.00%
Resident Evil 2 47.46%
Bloodborne 47.31%
Horizon Zero Dawn 44.88%
Borderlands 2 40.32%
DOOM 40.27%
Fire Emblem: Awakening 39.84%
Resident Evil 7: biohazard 37.06%
Fallout 4 33.12%
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night 32.54%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution 29.67%
VVVVVV 18.73%
Call of Duty: Black Ops 18.42%
Fortnite 17.12%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 16.01%
INSIDE 11.23%
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I feel my hype died down a bit after that break, there was no need for it.

BOTW over 70% now
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Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch 21.54%
Final Fantasy XV 19.76%

lmao

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tgs2 posted...

687 feels so low for 10 minutes in. DQXI benefiting greatly from it

It's still better than the first day of the entire contest, which had 646 after 10 minutes.
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KamikazePotato posted...

BotW/DQ11 feels like it changes something we were expecting to happen but I'm not sure what. I still don't think BotW comes close to losing to anything without a rally, but DQ11's half of the division being legit creates some interesting comparisons with other parts of the bracket.

I still feel like the break is influencing a lot of this. I mean, Link opened up the post-break portion of the 2018 contest with an underperformance on Ganon, and it didn't really mean much either.

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(sees RE2)

there goes second bracket

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ShortReplies posted...

Mass Effect 2 is overperforming

Is it

SHEPARD!!!!!!!!!!! Saving my bracket since 2010

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Is it

Yes. It currently round up 2 to points higher than my Second Chance bracket and that's unacceptable.
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@UltimaterializerX I agree

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are the percentages taking a little while to update on the results page for anybody else? clicking detailed results on either match has been giving different percents than the not-detailed results

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BotW isn't winning by enough.
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snake_5036 posted...

are the percentages taking a little while to update on the results page for anybody else? clicking detailed results on either match has been giving different percents than the not-detailed results

yes

This board convinced me to change BOTW's win percentage from 71% to 74%.

there's a rally for RE2 on reddit

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These are the kind of past few updates that have me worry for Witcher 3 against Persona 5, a much stronger JRPG.

KamikazePotato posted...

BotW/DQ11 feels like it changes something we were expecting to happen but I'm not sure what. I still don't think BotW comes close to losing to anything without a rally, but DQ11's half of the division being legit creates some interesting comparisons with other parts of the bracket.

Just at the moment, right away it makes me think From Software's got a legit following across the board.

Too early to tell, yada yada yada...but Bloodborne and Dark Souls 3 had respectable losses and DQ11 is making Sekiro look better too. Dark Souls 1 was already looking good, so if this holds then that makes DS1's good showings look all the more supported.

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Dark_Koopatrol posted...

This board convinced me to change BOTW's win percentage from 71% to 74%.

it probably is still good

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Ultimate/Odyssey watch:

If you subscribe to Bravely Default ~ Octopath, then Odyssey looks great right now.

If you subscribe to Hollow Knight ~ Shovel Knight/Undertale, then Odyssey looks bad right now.

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I knew DQ11 was very strong. It's probably even stronger than P4G

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So, pre-contest, who has the guts to pick Ni no Kuni over FF15? Anyone have the guts to do that now?
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KamikazePotato posted...

Ultimate/Odyssey watch:

If you subscribe to Bravely Default ~ Octopath, then Odyssey looks great right now.

If you subscribe to Hollow Knight ~ Shovel Knight/Undertale, then Odyssey looks bad right now.

Quick, if Octopath = Bravely Default and FFXV = FFXIV, what does Odyssey get on Skyrim?

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Team Rocket Elite posted...

So, pre-contest, who has the guts to pick Ni no Kuni over FF15? Anyone have the guts to do that now?

Still wouldn't take it even if BotW doesn't rise at all from here on out.

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RE2 as game of the decade? Lol thats just disrespectful

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Quick, if Octopath = Bravely Default and FFXV = FFXIV, what does Odyssey get on Skyrim?

a lot because that would project Odyssey to be very close to BOTW

65.21% to be precise
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FFXV loses to Bravely Default what in the


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lol final fantasy

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Bravely Default is the better game.

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I'm not necessarily disputing that!

Still would be shocked to see it

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my guess is that BOTW/FFXV is the outlier here, not BOTW/DQ11

also I wish I knew how to make memes because I have an idea for ME2/RE2
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Bendezu posted...

i think BotW won't get over 70% on DQXI

this post has aged surprisingly well!

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KamikazePotato posted...

Ultimate/Odyssey watch:

If you subscribe to Bravely Default ~ Octopath, then Odyssey looks great right now.

If you subscribe to Hollow Knight ~ Shovel Knight/Undertale, then Odyssey looks bad right now.

It's going to come down to what people trust more this contest: JRPGs overperforming, or Indies bombing. Sadly there is easy proof for both cases.

tgs2 posted...

These are the kind of past few updates that have me worry for Witcher 3 against Persona 5, a much stronger JRPG.

I feel like it's the opposite. One of Persona 5's best arguments was that it was able to score 34% on BotW in the GotY polls for 2017 and BotW being exposed today weakens that look a lot.

FFXV, Halo Reach and The Outer Worlds are all just turbo fodder it seems.

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three straight cuts for RE2
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Persona 5 is likely much stronger now than it was in 2017. and it also has stats extrapolated through Civ 5 that put it very close to Witcher 3. (if you assume Civ 5 is consistent)

LeonhartFour posted...

three straight cuts for RE2

The knife is broken in the remake.

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ME2: "You're workin' too hard."

*knife to the back*
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And then ME2 makes a big gain on almost all the ground covered.

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Looks like Zelda waited an extra round to showcase its mortality.

A reactionary person might take this to mean that the good JRPGs of the decade are still monsters on this site, and that Witcher will have its hands full with Persona. A reactionary person.

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Sharinnegan posted...

Persona 5 is likely much stronger now than it was in 2017. and it also has stats extrapolated through Civ 5 that put it very close to Witcher 3. (if you assume Civ 5 is consistent)

Well, now it's just down to this one argument, which requires Civ 5 and AC being constant, and there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of that assumption.

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Ouch, I think I picked BotW with 76% in the 2nd chance contest. I should have assumed a much wider gap between DQXI and Halo Reach (I'm a dummy). The thing is, I think I predicted BotW to beat Witcher 3 with 64% (oops). The other match is going almost exactly as I predicted so far, though IIRC.

Does anyone have a link for the Second Chance page?

EDIT: I mean FFVX, not Halo Reach.

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Looks like Zelda waited an extra round to showcase its mortality.

A reactionary person might take this to mean that the good JRPGs of the decade are still monsters on this site, and that Witcher will have its hands full with Persona. A reactionary person.

you'll never see it COMIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN'
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7956-division-6-round-1-assassins-creed-black-flag-vs

Assassins Creed 2 (2015g) VS Civilization 5 (2015g)

Assassins Creed 2 has a strength of 18.64.
Civilization 5 has a strength of 16.72.

Assassins Creed 2 wins with 55.15% of the vote!
A win of 6,270 with 60,875 total votes cast.

A constant Civ 5 actually puts AC4 higher than AC2 when AC2 is supposed to be the strongest one. In this particular case I mean how strong AC2 was in 2015 since the entire series might be weaker today.
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I don't know why you all were underrating DQXI. I've seen it beat Fire Emblem and Xenoblade in the switch board of all places

Dragon Quest is historically trash on this website, so even with a Switch port, Smash, etc. behind it some users didn't anticipate it being this strong.

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Take from this whatever you want but based on 2015 stats, Ocarina would have gotten 80% on DQVIII

I don't have trouble buying DQXI being good; it felt like a breakout moment akin to Persona 5 for that series. I'm just baffled that it would stomp this hard on BotW's side of the division.

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CT straight up got 80% on DQ8:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6115-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-chrono-trigger-vs-dragon-quest
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