Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1355-east-division-semifinal-cloud-strife-vs-bowser

We still didn't believe in Cloud quite yet even with this result!

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA
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Game of the Decade 2 X-Stats

Division 1

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 50.00%
Final Fantasy XV 19.76%
Hollow Knight 19.59%
Halo: Reach 15.14%
The Outer Worlds 14.98%
Tales of Berseria 14.57%
Life is Strange 13.28%
What Remains of Edith Finch 10.02%

Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age 50.00%
Monster Hunter: World 46.72%
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice 41.30%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy 39.29%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch 34.22%
Bastion 28.09%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 26.83%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC 19.33%

Division 2

Mass Effect 2 50.00%
Horizon Zero Dawn 44.88%
Borderlands 2 40.32%
Resident Evil 7: biohazard 37.06%
Fallout 4 33.12%
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night 32.54%
VVVVVV 18.73%
Fortnite 17.12%

Resident Evil 2 50.00%
Bloodborne 49.84%
DOOM 42.43%
Fire Emblem: Awakening 41.97%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution 31.26%
Call of Duty: Black Ops 19.41%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 16.87%
INSIDE 11.83%

Division 3

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 50.00%
Spider-Man 36.39%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds 35.94%
Minecraft 30.82%
Bayonetta 26.24%
Dead Space 2 21.88%
Tekken 7 17.02%
Dota 2 14.97%

Super Mario Odyssey 50.00%
Devil May Cry 5 28.69%
Shovel Knight 27.19%
Octopath Traveler 26.99%
Undertale 25.22%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze 24.44%
Dragons Dogma 19.36%
Mortal Kombat 11 14.03%

Division 4

Persona 4 Golden 50.00%
Red Dead Redemption 49.17%
Grand Theft Auto V 48.93%
Cuphead 38.89%
XCOM 2 24.67%
FTL: Faster Than Light 22.23%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective 20.78%
Baba Is You 20.29%

Xenoblade Chronicles 50.00%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses 40.36%
Ori and the Blind Forest 30.48%
Dragon Age: Inquisition 29.32%
South Park: The Stick of Truth 26.91%
Overwatch 26.68%
Death Stranding 23.53%
Splatoon 2 21.57%

Division 5

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 50.00%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%
Stardew Valley 28.30%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 17.01%
Destiny 16.32%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 15.93%
Return of the Obra Dinn 10.05%

God of War 50.00%
Fallout: New Vegas 44.73%
Dark Souls III 41.19%
Nioh 25.54%
Dishonored 24.77%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 22.20%
The Stanley Parable 18.43%
The Talos Principle 15.08%

Division 6

Persona 5 50.00%
Sonic Mania 32.11%
Assassins Creed IV: Black Flag 28.94%
Sid Meiers Civilization V 25.21%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 23.93%
Super Meat Boy 22.58%
Heavy Rain 21.71%
Slay the Spire 14.02%

Portal 2 50.00%
Red Dead Redemption 2 46.52%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 39.44%
Kingdom Hearts III 37.64%
Tomb Raider 34.71%
Street Fighter V 26.41%
Disco Elysium 24.04%
Dying Light 17.31%

Division 7

Dark Souls 50.00%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 36.71%
Yakuza 0 31.39%
Rocket League 22.66%
Dragon Ball FighterZ 21.91%
Dead Cells 20.18%
Hotline Miami 17.01%
The Witness 14.19%

The Last of Us 50.00%
Batman: Arkham City 44.76%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 40.77%
Diablo III 36.72%
BioShock Infinite 35.97%
Terraria 23.26%
Zero Escape: Virtues Last Reward 22.76%
Crusader Kings II 18.15%

Division 8

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 50.00%
Mario Kart 8 39.10%
Uncharted 4: A Thiefs End 32.18%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn 31.00%
Journey 25.02%
Crypt of the NecroDancer 17.65%
Fate/Grand Order 16.91%
Subnautica 16.00%

Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version 50.00%
NieR: Automata 48.13%
Bayonetta 2 30.41%
Divinity: Original Sin II 30.10%
Rayman Legends 28.03%
Celeste 27.78%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 18.53%
Night in the Woods 18.04%
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I don't know if enough users will submit something to get useful data but I made a topic to collect Second Chance entries:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78633539
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I love how the only two games that are last place in their lists and have more than 20% are the two Division 4 games (Splatoon and Baba is You).

I also think Splatoon might have business being this high but Baba is You definitely doesn't. Xenoblade vs P4 is going to be murder.

Thanks for the stats, Leon. I used them during my second chance entries.

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I remember some idle discussion back at the start of Round 2 about Rayman being the game that killed the final zero bracket. However, there's currently no bracket with less than 3 points, meaning that it was actually either HGSS or Nier that killed the final zero bracket - most likely Nier, but it's possible that the final zero bracket has more than 3 points now. I'm not sure if that means the last zero was just a cursed favorites bracket or if someone who called every other first-round winner correctly somehow thought Bayo 2 would pull it off over Nier (and also that Nier was least likely to advance from its fourpack), but there you have it.

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Do incomplete bracket still show up on the stats page? I know they did for a while but I don't recall if it ever stopped.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Didn't we lose voters after the break last time and never fully recovered? Although that probably won't push things below 16000.

Yeah, we took a slight hit to our vote totals in the previous contest after the break. Character Battles have generally not shown an increase in vote totals as you progress to the later rounds of the contest, with the exception of 2002 and 2003/2007 to a lesser extent. This is different from Games Contests as vote totals do tend to show a clear increase once you get past round 1 as the weakest games are eliminated and you are left with games that have better playrates, so the casual voters are more likely to vote in the later round matches.
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My predications for 2nd bracket division finals only for now

BOTW 74%
Me2 52%
Smash bros 52%
Xenoblade 56%
Witcher 3 60 %
Persona 5 57%
Dark Souls 55%
Skyrim 53%


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Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not.

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pjbasis posted...

Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not.

No way. I don't think SMG2 has changed that much (maybe a minor boost from Nintendo being in a better spot right now), but Mass Effect has definitely seen better days, and I'd guess that being named "Mass Effect" means it can function as a proxy for the entire series.

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

I love how the only two games that are last place in their lists and have more than 20% are the two Division 4 games (Splatoon and Baba is You).

I also think Splatoon might have business being this high but Baba is You definitely doesn't. Xenoblade vs P4 is going to be murder.

I just think GTAV is the perfect opponent for Baba is You honestly. GTAV is probably not capable of delivering a blowout to anything unless it's something we heavily antivote, because it gets antivoted to some extend here. Baba is You is a completely different game, which is clear from the match picture too, so it probably got a good share of "Uh, GTA... " votes.

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pjbasis posted...

Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not.

I think it wins

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Persona 5 vs Smash Ultimate, if they fought, who you got?

I'd take Smash Ultimate with 52%

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Fun with numbers:

If you set Three Houses = Red Dead Redemption 2015 and assume that Xenoblade didn't SFF it, 2020 Xenoblade gets about 61% on 2015 Xenoblade.

Assuming a constant MGS5, 2020 Dark Souls gets about 59% on 2015 Dark Souls.

If you account for the rally and assume Bloodborne gets about 55% on Awakening this year, then 2020 Bloodborne gets about 58.5% on 2015 Bloodborne.

The Last of Us, despite poor Round 1/2 showings, did slightly better against Arkham City than 2015 projections, implying it hasn't dropped in strength.


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Will anyone make a prediction for the 2nd chance? Weill be there a topic for that?

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ctesjbuvf posted...

I just think GTAV is the perfect opponent for Baba is You honestly. GTAV is probably not capable of delivering a blowout to anything unless it's something we heavily antivote, because it gets antivoted to some extend here. Baba is You is a completely different game, which is clear from the match picture too, so it probably got a good share of "Uh, GTA... " votes.

Honestly, I think we overrate the shit how much GTA gets hated on. The games are honestly decent midcarders at worst, and are a long way from losing to the games that GameFAQs really thinks low of, like Call of Duty and its ilk.

It's just that GTA has had a few unfortunate moments that it won't really live down, like the Golden Sun or Ness results. Also, we have way more Character Battle results to draw from, and no one really cares about Vercetti and Niko, especially with their games not in recent memory any more.

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You can easily be anti-voted without being anywhere close to losing to the likes of Call of Duty. Link is always antivoted to some extend and is never in danger of losing to anything period. But it takes a very little amount of antivoting to prevent you from scoring high percentages, even if you'll win all the matches you're supposed to without.

And it's not even necessairly hate! When you're forced to vote in all matches, but don't care about GTAV vs. Baba is You, then Baba is You standing out as much as it does and not being in any position to actually to threaten the victory added up to that a good chunk of our site probably couldn't care less about it, then it'll show in such a match.


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Rockstar games have like a 1-9 record in debatable matches. Golden Sun is the most infamous because the stars topic hates Golden Sun but there's plenty of others, like GTA4 losing to Pokemon Emerald and GTA losing to Warcraft in the series contest.

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Now now, there's both DK and Kefka. It's got at least two debatable victories! Also, I guess Vice City in 2008 defeated Metroid Prime in a four way in a two PS2 vs. two GC match of fuckery.

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I was referring solely to Rockstar video games, and Vice City LFFing past Metroid Prime is the '1' in that record. If you include characters, Tommy Vercetti on his own has more clutch moments than the rest of his entire parent company's contest history.

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And then even in GOTD Metroid Prime looked good for a 60-40 win over Vice City, while the x-stats had the KH/VC ratio staying about the same. Come to think of it, Paper Mario has also performed FAR better in its other two contest appearances than it did in '09.

Maybe in 4-ways the newer Nintendo games were hurting each other spectacularly? Would explain how MGS4 pulled it out against Brawl and TP in Round 4.

Yeah I think it's a combination of that and GTA/KH being much better-suited to fourways.

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SuperNiceDog posted...

Persona 5 vs Smash Ultimate, if they fought, who you got?

I'd take Smash Ultimate with 52%

If persona had come out on switch id absolutely take it over smash.

but yeah thats about right

also if youre taking smash with only 52 do yiu take witcher to beat smash?

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ctesjbuvf posted...

I just think GTAV is the perfect opponent for Baba is You honestly. GTAV is probably not capable of delivering a blowout to anything unless it's something we heavily antivote, because it gets antivoted to some extend here. Baba is You is a completely different game, which is clear from the match picture too, so it probably got a good share of "Uh, GTA... " votes.

But GTA did deliver a respectable blowout on Baba. It's just that P4 barely edged it and now a game that can't quadruple anything is in division finals.

I think Baba is You is quite a bit weaker than the stats currently indicate.

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So, looking at 2015 stats, Pokemon GSC is supposed to get 73.69% on Bayonetta 2. In this contest, it gets 69.59%. Which suggests the remake is a bit weaker than the original, just not weaker enough to let Nier make the kill.

This is, of course, assuming a constant Bayonetta, which I think is fairly reasonable assumtption since this is a WiiU game, but who knows if Bayo didn't get benefitted by the post-2017 global nintendo boost. Then again, that boost should have also affected Pokemon so... yeah.

Bayonetta 2 has been released on Switch since then on top of being added to Smash, so I think it's very likely the game is stronger now.

Mario Kart 8 looking this much better makes me more certain too.

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Oh I forgot about that. So it's very likely GSC is just as strong as HGSS.

I dunno that I'd go that far either!
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NieR/Bayonetta SFF has been suggested before.

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LeonhartFour posted...

I dunno that I'd go that far either!

Yeah I'm doing stats here and it's a big range between "bayo20 = bayo15" and "gsc15 = HGSS20".

FIguring out where to pick in that range is tricky.

wait...is the general consensus that GSC was stronger or weaker than 2015 Skyrim? the stats are all messed up due to undertale and melee stomping everything with rallies.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

My predications for 2nd bracket division finals only for now

BOTW 74%
Me2 52%
Smash bros 52%
Xenoblade 56%
Witcher 3 60 %
Persona 5 57%
Dark Souls 55%
Skyrim 53%

Your numbers are shockingly close to my gut picks, which I'm not sure what that means considering I never do any of the Oracle stuff.

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pjbasis posted...

Do we think SMG2 loses to ME1 again? I'm thinking probably not.

it lost to SMG1. Galaxy 2 would easily lose against mass effect considering it's weaker than galaxy 1

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Obviously The World Ends with You is weaker than Rayman Legends and Celeste. Which I have a REALLY hard time buying.

Just calling it Nier/Bayonetta SFF and moving on.

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who wants votals? bet you didn't see Fallout NV/Dark Souls 3 being the highest votal match so far.



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Pretty sure both sides were rallying, so I guess we know what the most effective rallies were!

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RE2/Bloodborne was robbed of its chance to be #1 on this graph.

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Yuri_LowelI posted...

My predications for 2nd bracket division finals only for now

BOTW 74%
Me2 52%
Smash bros 52%
Xenoblade 56%
Witcher 3 60 %
Persona 5 57%
Dark Souls 55%
Skyrim 53%

Wow. Not much different from mine, even if I've got 1 or 2 results flipped.

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Is there any possibility for an SFF/rSFF match at Witcher/Skyrim?

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Advokaiser posted...

Is there any possibility for an SFF/rSFF match at Witcher/Skyrim?

We've seen what Witcher did to ME3 and AC:O, so definitely possible Witcher 3 SFFs Skyrim.

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Yah I strongly suspect that if Skyrim faces Witcher in the semis, Witcher will mop the floor with it harder than any of the games in its preceding three matches

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Advokaiser posted...

Is there any possibility for an SFF/rSFF match at Witcher/Skyrim?

Not sure. They seem to be different ways to tackle a WRPG. I do hope we get that match, as it seems the most interesting combination.

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I don't think so myself. Yeah the are WRPG and open world too. BUT Witcher 3 is much more defined with the main character and the main cast. In Skyrim no character matters.

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deeewooh posted...

it lost to SMG1. Galaxy 2 would easily lose against mass effect considering it's weaker than galaxy 1

https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(6)Super_Mario_Galaxy_2_vs_(11)Mass_Effect_2015

It was Galaxy 2 vs. Mass Effect 1.

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Isn't Galaxy 2 the 2nd best Mario game of the previous decade though?

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Safer_777 posted...

Isn't Galaxy 2 the 2nd best Mario game of the previous decade though?

I mean, what's its competition for 2nd strongest? Mario Kart 8, I guess!

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(6)Super_Mario_Galaxy_2_vs_(11)Mass_Effect_2015

It was Galaxy 2 vs. Mass Effect 1.

2015 was a very low point for Nintendo though. I could see it flipping in SMG2's favor in 2020.

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I would expect Galaxy 2 to win that today due to a confluence of factors, but I don't think it would be a blowout.

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