Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part Two *

(+) Yeah! (+)

You also have The Last of Us in the finals, which may be unique among surviving brackets. In the unlikely events of Zelda losing early (to anything) and TLoU making the finals, the contest is probably yours. On the other hand, I'm guessing your bracket is eliminated as soon as TLoU is.

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@azuarc , @Advokaiser now we have to believe in OUR Boy SHULK

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Fairly sure this will be my last day while I am still "alive", even though the best I can hope for is to lose out on the tie breaker. At least I outlasted a lot of people this time. Go Persona!

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Ringworm posted...

Fairly sure this will be my last day while I am still "alive", even though the best I can hope for is to lose out on the tie breaker. At least I outlasted a lot of people this time. Go Persona!

you've survived for 2 months, be proud.

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It seems we may be looking at the scenario where Odyssey wins and someone who didn't have it wins the guru anyway. Wasn't expecting it, I thought those 24 points were too many. But I guess you can't just crap the bed in to many of the other R4 matches like I did.

Doesn't help that almost all Mario brackets have Skyrim in the finals. That ended up being the one match that enclipses the entire bracket.

I wonder if this point system we have isn't a little too lopsided towards later matches, tbh.

I've always thought it is way too lopsided. If the quarter-final is an upset that one person took and it wins the next match too, then you'll get 48 points on everyone there. It always seemed weird to me that a winner can predict so many matches wrong as long as they called that one right upset.

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As one of the weirdos who picked Witcher III to win, today's result is delicious.

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Big Bob posted...

As one of the weirdos who picked Witcher III to win, today's result is delicious.

but is it though

do you think Galaxy 2 gets 62.50% or better on DQXI

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

It seems we may be looking at the scenario where Odyssey wins and someone who didn't have it wins the guru anyway. Wasn't expecting it, I thought those 24 points were too many. But I guess you can't just crap the bed in to many of the other R4 matches like I did.

Doesn't help that almost all Mario brackets have Skyrim in the finals. That ended up being the one match that enclipses the entire bracket.

I wonder if this point system we have isn't a little too lopsided towards later matches, tbh.

I think the system is fair, but yea maybe it could be negotiated

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The system is fair. I mean a guy that manages to find how something will happen after so many rounds deserves more points.

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Safer_777 posted...

The system is fair. I mean a guy that manages to find how something will happen after so many rounds deserves more points.

That's the theory, yes. The idea is that as each round goes, the probability of an individual game winning that match goes down by half, so the points awarded double.

But in practice, not all match-ups are made equal. Some early round matches are more debated than later round ones, and that happens all the time. Baba is You doesn't have the same probability of being in the semi-finals as Smash Ultimate. It just doesn't. Even casual bracket makes know that. Even those people in Reddit we make fun of know that.

So late round matches have a scoring that is not proportional to the actual difficulty in getting the match right, and so the system isn't clearly representative of how well the person picked their matches.

A more fair way would be to change the scoring so it would be closer to an arithmetical progression, like 1-2-3-4-5-6-7. Or if that's too much, maybe something in-between, like 1-2-3-5-8-12-20. Still values late round matches but is closer to their actual difficulty.

Heck, I think a good way of measuring what the fair scoring is would be to take a look at the average % of bracket makers getting matches right in each round. I thnk I'll try to do that later.

I agree that the scoring for most contests has been too overloaded on the back end, and this is coming from someone who has taken advantage of that very system multiple times (I've missed tons of matches, but I've also been luckier at calling the last week of a contest and finding myself doing well anyway).

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But remember Undertale? Or Draven? Or L-Block? They all had 0% chance to advance far. Yet they won because of rallies. So why a guy that have picked them not get many points?

But I do know that well rallies can;t happen now plus obviously something like BOTW will have no problem advancing far. So I am not really sure. These contest are happening for 18 years and this hasn't changed. Maybe the regulars can discuss this with the Admin.

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In those cases, you basically just needed to call the winner right and it barely mattered how the rest of the bracket went for you.

I appreciate that later rounds are worth more points, I just think the rise is a bit too steep.

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my hope for p4g vs xenoblade is that there's some sort of jrpg rsff where persona 4 golden is higher on the totempole than xenoblade among the fans that have made xenoblade look strong so far

i think in a general games contest persona 4 > xenoblade so its not impossible buit im grasping at straws here definitely

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Safer_777 posted...

But remember Undertale? Or Draven? Or L-Block? They all had 0% chance to advance far. Yet they won because of rallies. So why a guy that have picked them not get many points?

But I do know that well rallies can;t happen now plus obviously something like BOTW will have no problem advancing far. So I am not really sure. These contest are happening for 18 years and this hasn't changed. Maybe the regulars can discuss this with the Admin.

I mean still proves my point. You get to crap the bad on most of the bracket and still win because if one rally. Even that rally may not be as hard as predict as, you know, the entire bracket.

Never mind the fact that giving people prizes for contest breaking rallies is exactly what most of us would rather avoid...

I do agree, the final three rounds are weighted too heavily. And like yo, I'm saying this as someone who is taking big time advantage of the current system.


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UltimaterializerX posted...

You get the scoring is based on the NCAAs, right. Getting late winners right should count for more.

Yes, but you can weight it better so that the final isn't the same value as the entirety of round 1.

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Which is the big difference between a popularity contest and an actual competition.

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It's not just Breath of the Wild, the entire bracket shows the scoring isn't proportional to the difficulty of each round.

How many games could be in the finals with BotW? 3? 4? maybe 5? Definitely not 64, though.

Can you look at tomorrow's div 3 finals and tell me with a straight face that all 16 games could be in the finals besides just Odyssey and Smash? Because that's what the scoring system wants to imply.

About a year ago I made a bracket contest in a One Piece forum and I basically copied the system from GameFAQs. People asked me why I used that scoring and I couldn't give a better answer than "I'm basing it on GameFAQs and it works there". If I host another one of those, I'm going to try to innovate a little more.

I like the idea of weighting it 1-2-3-5-7-8-10 or something similar
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IMO Fibonacci scoring is the best method.

Later rounds are still more valuable, but to a lesser extent.

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GildedFool posted...

IMO Fibonacci scoring is the best method.

Later rounds are still more valuable, but to a lesser extent.

So 1-2-3-5-8-13-21 ?

It's not about devaluing the importance of these contests, but comparing the difference between a human sport, where a lot of different things can happen in a match, or a poll where we ask the population something we mostly already know about.

You probably don't get the same % of correct brackets in a real life sports bracket that you get here, even in non-Zelda matches.

I should have picked my own top 10 game ever over a new game that I thought would be stronger than an old game

Oops

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greengravy294 posted...

I should have picked my own top 10 game ever over a new game that I thought would be stronger than an old game

Oops

This is literally me. Double oops.

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davidponte posted...

This is literally me. Double oops.

This was me in 2015. DKC2 is my all time favorite game, and I picked it to lose in Round 1 when it goes and upsets its fourpack. Super Mario RPG is my second favorite game of all time, and it made the Final Four, when I had it losing to Resident Evil 4. LOL me.

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So 21 left barring a successful rally (which won't happen). Good luck to you all.

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I think it's a little circumspect that you can do everything else correct, but underestimate, say, Mario vs Smash and overestimate the strength of Skyrim, and torch more points than you could ever possibly make up by predicting every other upset in the contest. You just lost 8+16+16+32 from four wrong picks. Not only do you lose to someone who got singularly those matches correct, but you look terribly next to them, because you're at -72. They could literally miss over a third of rounds 1, 2, and 3 and still come out ahead of you. (That's 24+12+6=42 matches vs your 4.)

I've always taken offense to this with March Madness brackets, too, though, and at least the "chip and a chair" mentality is a tiny pinch more likely there.

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Damnit I have GTA V beating Overwatch today

never again will I underestimate the power of weeb shit on gamefaqs

let's gooooo Xenoblade!

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31 legends remain.

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Persona 4 Golden

DoomTheGyarados
Ringworm
GildedFool
charmander6000
TsunamiXXVIII
Whiskey_Nick
Furious Fura
linkhatesganon
transience
DoctorJimmy133
The Mana Sword
Tirofog

Xenoblade Chronicles

Ngamer
_SecretSquirrel
Gall
azuarc
JONALEON1
ChichiriMuyo
squexa
yoblazer
raytan7585
SuperNiceDog
SpikeDragon
Advokaiser
UltimaterializerX
HaRRicH

Only 18% of Gurus can even possibly get this match right, so I think being in contention here deserves a shout out.

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This is the worst possible outcome for me. I get killed by Xenoblade, but Xenoblade doesn't even look cool doing it. Bah.

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Persona 4 Golden

DoomTheGyarados
Ringworm
GildedFool
charmander6000
TsunamiXXVIII
Whiskey_Nick
Furious Fura
linkhatesganon
transience
DoctorJimmy133
The Mana Sword
Tirofog

Xenoblade Chronicles

Ngamer
_SecretSquirrel
Gall
azuarc
JONALEON1
ChichiriMuyo
squexa
yoblazer
raytan7585
SuperNiceDog
SpikeDragon
Advokaiser
UltimaterializerX
HaRRicH

Some cool news here is we're guaranteed to have a Guru with a perfect Division 4 this contest...literally just one person though, and it depends on today who gets that honor: me or charmander.

Too close to call at the moment -- good luck char!

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if Shulk wins... I live for another 4 days or so

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Persona 4 Golden

DoomTheGyarados
Ringworm
GildedFool
charmander6000
TsunamiXXVIII
Whiskey_Nick
Furious Fura
linkhatesganon
transience
DoctorJimmy133
The Mana Sword
Tirofog

Xenoblade Chronicles

Ngamer
_SecretSquirrel
Gall
azuarc
JONALEON1
ChichiriMuyo
squexa
yoblazer
raytan7585
SuperNiceDog
SpikeDragon
Advokaiser
UltimaterializerX
HaRRicH

Only 18% of Gurus can even possibly get this match right, so I think being in contention here deserves a shout out.

this is still in the balance


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@HaRRicH , @Advokaiser Xenoblade is holding on! LETSSS GOOOO

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I had GTA > FE. Go me.

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Eliminations for Divisions 5 and 6:

Elims for a The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt+Persona 5 win:

• Kotetsu534 by yoblazer, Advokaiser

Elims for a The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt+Portal 2 win:

• Dr_Football by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, yoblazer, Advokaiser, LordoftheMorons
• NowItsAngeTime by firefdr
• Kotetsu534 by yoblazer, Advokaiser
• SuperNiceDog by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, yoblazer, Advokaiser, LordoftheMorons
• LordoftheMorons by yoblazer, Advokaiser

Elims for a God of War+Persona 5 win:

• Xeybozn by NowItsAngeTime
• azuarc by Kotetsu524 AND SuperNiceDog AND LordoftheMorons
• JONALEON1 by Kotetsu524 AND SuperNiceDog AND LordoftheMorons
• Big Bob by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, COVlD-19, yoblazer, SpikeDragon, Advokaiser
• yoblazer by Kotetsu524 AND LordoftheMorons
• Jester69 by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, COVlD-19, Agent M, yoblazer, Kotetsu534, SpikeDragon, Advokaiser, WhiteLens
• WhiteLens by SpikeDragon

Elims for a God of War+Portal 2 win:

• Dr_Football by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, yoblazer, Kotetsu534, Advokaiser, LordoftheMorons
• Xeybozn by NowItsAngeTime, firefdr
• NowItsAngeTime by firefdr
• Big Bob by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, COVlD-19, yoblazer, SpikeDragon, Advokaiser
• SuperNiceDog by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, yoblazer, Kotetsu534, Advokaiser, LordoftheMorons
• Jester69 by Ngamer, azuarc, JONALEON1, Agent M, yoblazer, Kotetsu534, SpikeDragon, Advokaiser, WhiteLens
• WhiteLens by SpikeDragon
• LordoftheMorons by yoblazer, Kotetsu534, Advokaiser

Got screwed over by the registered user bonus for a second time, which eliminated me. I'm going to be extremely annoyed if I somehow end up within 12 pts of whoever wins overall (it's unlikely, but possible).

Once again, good luck to those still in with a shot of winning.

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Wow didnt expect Persona 5 vs Portal 2 to make put me in the kill or die elim camp

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Nothing more comfortable than not being in the chopping block AND eliminating someone regardless of the outcome.

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Witcher III once again beating expectations.

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I keep being knocked down while right on the edge of making the normal leaderboard (this time by my 3H pick), but I managed to land on the inaugural Second Chance leaderboard!

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P5 is screwed?

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