Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1328

(+) Yeah! (+)

No more contest delays, please.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

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Eventually we gotta update the link to the wiki. New URL was over a year ago.

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(Posted this in the last topic)

Do you think Mario Kart 8 not being the Deluxe version will hurt it a little?

Battle Mode being added was huge. The port was way better.

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Tag

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I'd have thought this was one thing I could look forward to not being delated and it kinda still gets that title, but they sure try their best.

Uncharted 4 / Mario Kart 8 is one of the matches where both choices doesn't feel quite right to me and it's worth 3 points.

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I had Uncharted 4 originally as i saw MK8 as just a middle of the round Nintendo game. Actually i had FF14>Uncharted>MK8. The board convinced me otherwise though. I doubt Uncharted 4 will have many people caring about it now.

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So if The Last of Us 2 gets delayed due to the coronavirus, do you think people will be petty and childish enough to antivote the first game?

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If RE3 is still coming out i see no reason why TLOU2 should be delayed.

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U4 v MK 8 is gonna be a test for the rest of the bracket.

U4 is more in line with what most people on this site want, a single player action game with a strong plot. AND there's still a decent Sony presence on this site, and UC is one of the premier Sony franchises.

MK8 is a multiplayer racing game, which most ppl here dgaf about (I believe it's the only racing game in bracket) BUT, it's frickin Mario.

Basically what I'm saying is, does being frickin Mario/Nintendo override literally other aspect of the games in contention?

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Games like Uncharted tend do a lot worse here than they would on most sites though.

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Turd of the round might end of being Mass Effect 2 even for the simple fact it wont look good against fallout 4

SwiftyDC posted...

(Posted this in the last topic)

Do you think Mario Kart 8 not being the Deluxe version will hurt it a little?

Battle Mode being added was huge. The port was way better.

I don't think it will. I think voters will treat it as being a representative of both versions. Similarly DQ11 will still gets support from people who played the Switch version even though that is DQ11 S. Oddly enough, I think MK8 Deluxe might be weaker since people who played the original MK8 might not vote for it.
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Does anyone have the adjusted x-stats from 2018?

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AxemRedRanger posted...

Does anyone have the adjusted x-stats from 2018?

I've got individual division X-Stats. With how crazy the double elimination stuff went, it was hard to make full blown stats because results contradict each other at almost every turn.

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Anyone have Bioshock Infinite > Batman?

Bioshock really took it to MGS3 back in 2015, but I feel like Batman's name value will pull indifferent votes.

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plasmabeam posted...

Anyone have Bioshock Infinite > Batman?

Bioshock really took it to MGS3 back in 2015, but I feel like Batman's name value will pull indifferent votes.

Infinite ain't the original

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Leonhart4 posted...

I've got individual division X-Stats. With how crazy the double elimination stuff went, it was hard to make full blown stats because results contradict each other at almost every turn.

Yeah, those would be good.

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Yeah, I think Arkham City has fared better to the passage of time than Infinite.

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Team Rocket Elite posted...

I don't think it will. I think voters will treat it as being a representative of both versions. Similarly DQ11 will still gets support from people who played the Switch version even though that is DQ11 S. Oddly enough, I think MK8 Deluxe might be weaker since people who played the original MK8 might not vote for it.

Why wouldnt they vote for it? Wii U sucked.


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Division 1

Ganondorf 50.00%
Vivi 48.04%
Dante 43.60%
Donkey Kong 43.26%
Chun-Li 41.09%
Leon Kennedy 38.35%
Tidus 37.26%
Spyro the Dragon 36.02%
Lightning 29.98%
Cuphead 24.77%
Yu Narukami 24.13%
Dragonborn 24.02%
Aya Brea 23.59%
Neku Sakuraba 21.40%
Victor Sullivan 19.08%
Chloe Price 15.48%

Division 2

Pikachu 50.00%
Yoshi 45.20%
Zero 43.44%
Vivi 38.32%
Knuckles the Echidna 38.10%
Kratos 36.59%
Wario 34.53%
Scorpion 33.59%
Zidane Tribal 32.92%
Master Hand 26.96%
Velvet Crowe 26.55%
Monika 24.47%
Shantae 23.26%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 22.89%
Primrose 22.43%
James Sunderland 20.69%
John Marston 19.63%

Division 3

Alucard 50.00%
Pokemon Trainer Red 46.19%
Sora 45.36%
Big Boss 44.18%
Princess Peach 43.19%
Crash Bandicoot 41.64%
Kefka 40.56%
Yuna 40.38%
Ridley 38.29%
Cecil Harvey 38.16%
Bomberman 32.59%
L-Block 32.29%
Ryo Hazuki 28.05%
Kazuma Kiryu 25.50%
Neptune 22.80%
Godot 22.16%

Division 4

Bowser 50.00%
Kirby 46.14%
Charizard 43.45%
2B 41.81%
Terra Branford 41.02%
Ness 38.70%
Shadow the Hedgehog 36.17%
Phoenix Wright 29.24%
Ike 28.86%
Isaac 27.42%
Chris Redfield 25.19%
Guile 23.49%
Gordon Freeman 22.61%
Joel 21.74%
Estelle Bright 19.40%
Cayde-6 18.56%

Division 5

Zelda - 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Waluigi 32.19%
Captain Toad 30.26%
The Boss 29.30%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
D. Va 20.37%
Aloy 19.18%
Hat Kid 17.69%

Division 6

Auron 50.00%
Geralt 46.86%
Bayonetta 46.04%
Simon Belmont 44.81%
Vincent Valentine 44.20%
Pac-Man 44.13%
Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%
Lucina 34.56%
Riku 32.77%
Shulk 32.41%
Claire Redfield 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 27.12%
Sans 25.27%

Division 7

Tifa Lockhart 50.00%
Mega Man X 49.82%
Luigi 48.64%
Mewtwo 41.90%
Frog 37.33%
Revolver Ocelot 31.48%
GlaDOS 31.44%
King Dedede 31.17%
Miles Tails Prower 29.52%
Geno 26.81%
Master Chief 26.29%
Nathan Drake 25.55%
Miles Edgeworth 21.92%
Isabelle 19.28%
Monokuma 17.64%
Goro Majima 16.29%

Division 8

Sephiroth 50.00%
Ryu 39.74%
Amaterasu 38.63%
Captain Falcon 35.07%
Lara Croft 34.84%
Albert Wesker 29.72%
Richter Belmont 27.78%
KOS-MOS 27.76%
Commander Shepard 26.59%
King K. Rool 25.93%
Ellie 25.29%
Lloyd Irving 25.08%
Aqua 23.66%
Metal Man 22.37%
Quiet 16.98%
Draven 9.16%

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Now I can try (and have tried) to compile some X-Stats based on the double elimination phase, but it'll be all over the place!

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So many of those X-stats results would have been hilarious.

Chun-Li > Tidus/Leon, DK/Dante being close, KOS-MOS > Shepard, Geno > Chief, Metal Sonic > Ezio, Simon > Vincent, Shantae > Noctis.

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I think strong DK is here to stay as weird as that sounds...!

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LeonhartFour posted...

I think strong DK is here to stay as weird as that sounds...!

FFIX is going to get a remake and DK will get a massive boost, as he is set to always remain at 44-45% on Vivi.

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@creativename

If you have configured the match updater to start today, you'll want to postpone that by changing the starting Poll ID to 7914. The contest was delayed for a second time earlier this week to make room for a server migration move.
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Okay, so here's the double elimination X-Stats giving everyone their best possible number, which is tricky, of course, because it outright contradicts other results. It's why using those to make X-Stats is tough! I'll leave in Solid Snake through Zelda and Solid Snake through Samus as an example:

Link 50.00%
Cloud Strife 40.73%
Mario 40.53%
Samus Aran 40.51%
Zelda 39.87%
Solid Snake 39.61%
Solid Snake 35.26%
Crono 35.25%
Pikachu 35.18%
Mega Man 35.10%
Sonic the Hedgehog 34.73%
Tifa Lockhart 33.56%
Sephiroth 33.03%
Alucard 32.26%
Bowser 31.81%
Auron 31.72%
Ganondorf 28.06%

Snake/Zelda 55/45s Snake/Samus based on those numbers, which makes for a pretty wide disparity. Sonic is pretty consistent between Snake and Zelda in his two losses, which makes me think the oddity is Snake/Samus (yet again). For the record, Sonic through Snake/Samus is at just above 29%, which is, well, terrible, and it would make Auron look really bad, too.

Ganondorf is boned no matter what you do because he got Link round 1 and got Bacondorf sprite against Mega Man in round 2, so basically he and the entire division gets undervalued. I might try to make a set of X-Stats just based off of the best possible value for each character. It'll be way off in some places, but eh, better than nothing, I guess!

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Of course, the counter to what you did with normal Snake is that Sonic > Sephiroth just feels really weird.

...On the other hand, Alucard/Sephiroth being close and the implication that Crash beats Ryu now is insane.

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Of course, the counter to what you did with normal Snake is that Sonic > Sephiroth just feels really weird.

...On the other hand, Alucard/Sephiroth being close and the implication that Crash beats Ryu now is insane.

Well, Seph looks bad, at least by his standards, no matter what you do. He actually looks better measuring through the loss with Mario than the loss to Tifa. That Ryu result feels really off, too, like Snake/Samus does. I don't know what happened there.

And Alucard was really good in 2018 (Netflix boost...?)! He got almost 40% on Cloud.

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

KOS-MOS > Shepard

KOS-MOS didn't even have any real TJF pictures through her entire 2018 run. She got a cupcake fourpack to compensate, and she's still ahead of Shepard!

Also, just as I've been saying, Primrose is barely behind Sans if you set Pikachu equal to Auron, and everyone knows Pikachu would blow Auron away.

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I dunno about "blow away." Pikachu would win, but it'd probably be like 55/45.

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Yeah, what I meant is that it wouldn't be particularly close, not to imply that Pikachu would shoot well into the 60s or anything like that.

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All this talk about Persona 4 Golden and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe being weaker because of the version in question reminds me how ridiculous it was to omit the 3DS version of Smash 4 for 2015.

Anyway, people who would vote for Mario Kart 8 will probably just assume the Deluxe version is implicitly included.

As far as Persona 4 Golden... Eh... It's by far the strongest game of one of the most utterly dead consoles on the site, so... I guess it balances out? How strong can the strongest Vita game be? Enough to antivote GTAV in JRPGFAQs? That match's practically a coin-flip. A coin flip that directly affects the rest of the field's results.

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Advokaiser posted...

Anyway, people who would vote for Mario Kart 8 will probably just assume the Deluxe version is implicitly included.

Eh, that's fine. It's basically the same game, and it's probably more widely played than the original at this point. Plus, MK8 is still a game that came out this decade.

P4G's a bit of a different situation. It has more reasons to be weaker than the original than MK8 would (since it's not being advertised as "Deluxe" in the first place).

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also Smash 4 for 3DS and Smash 4 for Wii U are technically different games

I would anti-vote the 3DS version in a heartbeat because that thing is a mess to play

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okay here are the X-Stats based on what I posted earlier (although I did tweak a couple of those numbers again before doing this)

there are some areas where the numbers are obviously off but it doesn't matter

@creativename can post these on the site if he so chooses

I also have the Best Year in Gaming X-Stats if you want those too

1. Link 50.00%
2. Cloud Strife 40.73%
3. Mario 40.53%
4. Samus Aran 40.51%
5. Zelda 39.87%
6. Solid Snake 39.61%
7. Crono 35.25%
8. Pikachu 35.18%
9. Mega Man 35.10%
10. Sonic the Hedgehog 34.73%
11. Tifa Lockhart 34.63%
12. Mega Man X 34.51%
13. Luigi 33.69%
14. Bowser 33.08%
15. Sephiroth 33.03%
16. Alucard 32.26%
17. Yoshi 31.80%
18. Auron 31.72%
19. Zero 30.56%
20. Kirby 30.53%
21. Aerith Gainsborough 30.15%
22. Pokemon Trainer Red 29.80%
23. Geralt 29.73%
24. Sora 29.26%
25. Squall Leonhart 29.25%
26. Bayonetta 29.21%
27. Mewtwo 29.02%
28. Charizard 28.75%
29. Fox McCloud 28.52%
30. Big Boss 28.50%
31. Simon Belmont 28.43%
32. Ganondorf 28.06%
33. Vincent Valentine 28.04%
34. Pac-Man 28.00%
35. Ryu Hayabusa 27.98%
36. Princess Peach 27.87%
37. 2B 27.66%
38. Sub-Zero 27.46%
39. Terra Branford 27.14%
40. Magus 26.98%
41. Vivi 26.96%
42. Crash Bandicoot 26.87%
43. Knuckles the Echidna 26.81%
44. Ryu 26.25%
45. Jill Valentine 26.18%
46. Kefka 26.17%
47. Rosalina 26.14%
48. Yuna 26.05%
49. Frog 25.85%
50. Kratos 25.74%
51. Waluigi 25.67%
52. Ness 25.60%
53. Amaterasu 25.52%
54. Ridley 24.70%
55. Cecil Harvey 24.62%
56. Dante 24.47%
57. Wario 24.30%
58. Donkey Kong 24.28%
59. Captain Toad 24.13%
60. Shadow the Hedgehog 23.93%
61. Scorpion 23.63%
62. The Boss 23.36%
63. Captain Falcon 23.17%
64. Zidane Tribal 23.16%
65. Chun-Li 23.06%
66. Lara Croft 23.02%
67. Shovel Knight 22.89%
68. Lucina 21.92%
69. Revolver Ocelot 21.80%
70. GlaDOS 21.78%
71. King Dedede 21.59%
72. Leon Kennedy 21.52%
73. Garrus Vakarian 21.04%
74. Bomberman 21.03%
75. Tidus 20.91%
76. L-Block 20.83%
77. Riku 20.79%
78. Ramza Beoulve 20.78%
79. Shulk 20.56%
80. Miles Tails Prower 20.45%
81. Metal Sonic 20.32%
82. Spyro the Dragon 20.21%
83. Ezio Auditore da Firenze 19.67%
84. Albert Wesker 19.63%
85. Phoenix Wright 19.35%
86. Ike 19.09%
87. Master Hand 18.97%
88. Velvet Crowe 18.68%
89. Geno 18.57%
90. Claire Redfield 18.53%
91. Richter Belmont 18.35%
92. KOS-MOS 18.34%
93. Master Chief 18.21%
94. Isaac 18.14%
95. Ryo Hazuki 18.10%
96. Nathan Drake 17.70%
97. Commander Shepard 17.57%
98. Monika 17.22%
99. Joker/Ren Amamiya 17.20%
100. King K. Rool 17.13%
101. Lightning 16.82%
102. Ellie 16.71%
103. Chris Redfield 16.67%
104. Kazuma Kiryu 16.45%
105. Shantae 16.37%
106. D.Va 16.24%
107. Noctis Lucis Caelum 16.11%
108. Sans 16.03%
109. Primrose 15.78%
110. Lloyd Irving 15.63%
111. Guile 15.54%
112. Aloy 15.29%
113. Miles Edgeworth 15.18%
114. Gordon Freeman 14.96%
115. Metal Man 14.78%
116. Neptune 14.71%
117. James Sunderland 14.56%
118. Joel 14.38%
119. Godot 14.30%
120. Hat Kid 14.11%
121. Cuphead 13.91%
122. John Marston 13.81%
123. Yu Narukami 13.54%
124. Dragonborn 13.48%
125. Isabelle 13.35%
126. Aya Brea 13.24%
127. Estelle Bright 12.84%
128. Cayde-6 12.28%
129. Monokuma 12.22%
130. Neku Sakuraba 12.01%
131. Goro Majima 11.28%
132. Quiet 11.22%
133. Victor Sullivan 10.71%
134. Chloe Price 8.69%
135. Draven 6.05%

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whats the feeling on Dark Souls? I feel like its reputation has been thoroughly on the side of one of the best games ever + most influential and it has a fairly dedicated fan base (and DS1 is the least divisive of the Soulsbournes). Feel like it has a real run in it or is the audience just not here on the site?

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Well now I'm upset we didn't get CECIL TO ROUND 3 as the 16 seed in Dante's division.

....Yes I know Ganondorf is obviously underrated DON'T CARE.

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yeah I'm thinking about doing some adjustments where I basically set Ganondorf equal to Bowser/Sephiroth and seeing if that balances things out

I imagine it'll look a lot closer to correct at any rate

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McGee4Ever posted...

whats the feeling on Dark Souls? I feel like its reputation has been thoroughly on the side of one of the best games ever + most influential and it has a fairly dedicated fan base (and DS1 is the least divisive of the Soulsbournes). Feel like it has a real run in it or is the audience just not here on the site?

bit if both.

think about the type of game dark souls is. Its going to be popular. But not that popular. I doubt many people on gfaqs have even beaten it

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Link
Division 1 winner

Pikachu
Division 2 winner

Zelda
Division 3 winner

Samus Aran
Division 4 winner

Solid Snake
Division 5 winner

Mario
Division 6 winner

Crono
Division 7 winner

Cloud Strife
Division 8 winner

Division 1

(1) Mega Man
(16) Draven

(8) Leon Kennedy
(9) Garrus Vakarian

(5) Vivi
(12) Lloyd Irving

(4) Magus
(13) Kazuma Kiryu

(6) Dante
(11) Geno

(3) Squall Leonhart
(14) Godot

(7) Wario
(10) Velvet Crowe

(2) Sora
(15) Hat Kid

Division 2

(1) Alucard
(16) Cayde-6

(8) Chun-Li
(9) Miles "Tails" Prower

(5) Yuna
(12) Commander Shepard

(4) Vincent Valentine
(13) Guile

(6) Frog
(11) Nathan Drake

(3) Ganondorf
(14) Aloy

(7) Zidane Tribal
(10) Metal Sonic

(2) Yoshi
(15) Estelle Bright

Division 3

(1) Luigi
(16) Goro Majima

(8) Lucina
(9) Riku

(5) Jill Valentine
(12) King K. Rool

(4) Princess Peach
(13) Sans

(6) Ness
(11) Master Chief

(3) Fox McCloud
(14) Metal Man

(7) Scorpion
(10) Albert Wesker

(2) Kirby
(15) Dragonborn

Division 4

(1) Mega Man X
(16) Quiet

(8) Revolver Ocelot
(9) L-Block

(5) Ryu
(12) Lightning

(4) 2B
(13) Noctis Lucis Caelum

(6) Amaterasu
(11) KOS-MOS

(3) Charizard
(14) Neptune

(7) Shadow the Hedgehog
(10) Phoenix Wright

(2) Aerith Gainsborough
(15) Yu Narukami

Division 5

(1) Bowser
(16) Neku Sakuraba

(8) Shovel Knight
(9) Ramza Beoulve

(5) Kefka
(12) Joker/Ren Amamiya

(4) Ryu Hayabusa
(13) Primrose

(6) Waluigi
(11) Isaac

(3) Big Boss
(14) Gordon Freeman

(7) The Boss
(10) Ezio Auditore da Firenze

(2) Zero
(15) Isabelle

Division 6

(1) Tifa Lockhart
(16) Victor Sullivan

(8) GlaDOS
(9) Tidus

(5) Knuckles the Echidna
(12) Ellie

(4) Sub-Zero
(13) D.Va

(6) Ridley
(11) Richter Belmont

(3) Mewtwo
(14) James Sunderland

(7) Captain Toad
(10) Ike

(2) Pokemon Trainer Red
(15) John Marston

Division 7

(1) Sephiroth
(16) Monokuma

(8) Lara Croft
(9) Shulk

(5) Rosalina
(12) Monika

(4) Pac-Man
(13) Aqua

(6) Kratos
(11) Ryo Hazuki

(3) Simon Belmont
(14) Miles Edgeworth

(7) Captain Falcon
(10) Spyro the Dragon

(2) Auron
(15) Aya Brea

Division 8

(1) Sonic the Hedgehog
(16) Chloe Price

(8) King Dedede
(9) Bomberman

(5) Crash Bandicoot
(12) Chris Redfield

(4) Terra Branford
(13) Shantae

(6) Cecil Harvey
(11) Claire Redfield

(3) Bayonetta
(14) Joel

(7) Donkey Kong
(10) Master Hand

(2) Geralt
(15) Cuphead

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(6) Cecil Harvey
(11) Claire Redfield

so Cecil has the statistical advantage but RE2make gives Claire a good chance. Perfect.

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Cecil Never Wins

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McGee4Ever posted...

whats the feeling on Dark Souls? I feel like its reputation has been thoroughly on the side of one of the best games ever + most influential and it has a fairly dedicated fan base (and DS1 is the least divisive of the Soulsbournes). Feel like it has a real run in it or is the audience just not here on the site?

it definitely has an audience on this site but it's hard to say how big it is. i have it losing to skyrim but it could very well lose before that.

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Dark Souls loses to TLOU or Skyrim take your pick

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I have Dark Souls beating both due to potentially mis-placed faith it might have gained in stature. It was only a four-year old game last we saw it, now it's one of the most influential games of the past two or so generations.

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Dark Souls was already pretty influential in 2015!

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Yeah I just somehow feel as if it might have gained even more in stature since, but who can really say?

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I get the impression that TLOU got more respect as a GOTD contender over the years. Dark Souls on the other hard felt like it was only popular because it was hard. I'm probably miles off the mark though as i never played DS and only played a few hours of TLOU.

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I do think Dark Souls is the kind of game that got a lot of traction over the years.

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If anything I've heard less and less about The Last of Us as time has gone on, although it is definitely a "Game of the Decade". But survival horror vs. Metroidvania RPG in a debatable match on GameFAQs, which seems better?

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