Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1328

(+) Yeah! (+)

Actually, let's have fun with numbers. Who else wants to have fun with numbers?...Just me?...Oh well, it's a public topic.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-super
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6100-best-game-ever-day-13-oblivion-vs-super-mario-rpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4164-northwest-division-round-2-paper-mario-tyd-vs-oblivion
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6060-best-game-ever-day-3-paper-mario-tyd-vs-tales-of-symphonia
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3470-division-7-round-1-god-of-war-gtasa-tos-oblivion
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4150-south-division-round-2-golden-sun-vs-gta-san-andreas
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6140-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-gta-san-andreas-vs-chrono

These are all results from 2010 and 2015, each without the presence of direct fanbase overlap, bandwagons, or what I like to call 'fuckery'. The 4-way result is probably a bit off because it's a 4-way, but Symphonia still did well against God of War in the 1 v 1 so I'm not going to worry about it much.

Super Mario RPG - 50
Oblivion - 45.5
Grand Theft Auto V - 42.8
Chrono Cross - 41.02
Golden Sun - 41
Paper Mario 2 - 40.80
Tales of Symphonia - 39.27
San Andreas - 37.97

I can't find any direct comparisons between those games and Persona 4 or Xenoblade, so take those numbers as you will, although it's worth noting that in the final 2015 Stats both of those games placed below Tales of Symphonia.

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LeonhartFour posted...

I don't know that I trust Bowser's division in general though. Some of those numbers just don't line up unless Kirby SFF'd Phoenix and/or Isaac.

Or Bowser rSFF'd Kirby...!

Can I take 'all of the above'

Seriously Kirby only did slightly better on Bowser 1 v 1 than he did against Sonic 1 v 1

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Meep

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KamikazePotato posted...

Can I take 'all of the above'

Seriously Kirby only did slightly better on Bowser 1 v 1 than he did against Sonic 1 v 1

Is Sonic looking kinda bad as a result of that supposed to be a problem?

He barely outdid Luigi against Link in 2010. his Bacondorf performance doesnt look so good now that Mega man has shown us how to really cook the stupid pig. He did marginally worse than 2006 Crono against Auron in 2018 too, despite that Auron dropped like 3% on 2006 Sub-zero. Four way Sonic was, of course, also bad.

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I mean, I guess it depends on what you think of 2018 Zelda and Snake.

The 2018 X-Stats can either put Sonic above or below Bowser, depending on how you choose to interpret them. In the worst case scenario, Sonic is weak enough to lose to the likes of Pokemon Trainer Red.

although even in the best case scenario he wouldn't beat Tifa, Bowser, Luigi, or Mega Man X by all that much

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Italy
17-30 - It'll be a hardcore gaming weekend - 100%
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This was the last time we had a poll similar to the one today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5724-

Although that poll covers what already happened, where as this poll is asking you to predict the amount of time spent playing games. Compared to the poll above, we're seeing a huge drop in the "Less than 1" and the "1-4" option. "5-8" is pretty similar to the 2014 poll, while the last 3 options are all doing better today.
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Oh, hey, Tomb Raider's free on Steam!

Maybe I can play it before the contest starts...

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By the way, remember when we talked about an indie-game-only contest like 4 years ago and some people didn't think it would be worth it?

Look at us now...

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Advokaiser posted...

By the way, remember when we talked about an indie-game-only contest like 4 years ago and some people didn't think it would be worth it?

Look at us now...

It still wouldn't be worth it!

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Basically I thought precisely of you since I remember you said "First game that reaches 10,000 votes wins lol".

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KamikazePotato posted...

I don't know that I trust Bowser's division in general though. Some of those numbers just don't line up unless Kirby SFF'd Phoenix and/or Isaac.

Or Bowser rSFF'd Kirby...!
Can I take 'all of the above'

Seriously Kirby only did slightly better on Bowser 1 v 1 than he did against Sonic 1 v 1

Don't let 2B's performance on Bowser fool you... Bowser was definitely the strongest he's ever been. I highly doubt Kirby rSFF'd Bowser. But yeah, there's little doubt that Kirby SFF'd Phoenix! (especially since Mario seemed to SFF Phoenix, as well) Too bad we'll never know for sure, though.


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It's not necessarily 2B's performance. It was 2B's performance combined with Ness (and maybe Shadow, too).

also 2005 will always be the strongest Bowser

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Maybe Bowser was at his strongest... well, there is his overperformance in the villains contest. He did get 59% on Ryu, but it's hard to say if that was a fluke or not, considering he only got 52% on Kirby.

I personally think Ness was as strong as he's ever been last contest, as well.


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Haste_2 posted...

Don't let 2B's performance on Bowser fool you... Bowser was definitely the strongest he's ever been.

He was on that Bowsette kick that year. That's why 2B did so well, as she had the assets needed to counter that.

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Ness boosting would fit in with the general SNES boost that happened. Heck, Breath of the Wild came out and Magus GAINED 4% against Link.

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The other possibility is, of course, that modern entries are just weird and have a ceiling of how well they can do against anything worth even the slightest bit, but also a floor of how poorly they can do if they're worth anything.

...Like our buddy Master Chief for a while.

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Eh, Auron's division is weird, too.

also the thing is that while Link has extended the gap between himself and the rest of the Noble Nine, the gap between everyone else and Link has narrowed

we used to think of 20% on Link as the fodder line but 82 of the 128 characters in 2018 are at 20%+ on Link

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I stand by the standard for Link being Link/Ganondorf.

If you're below where Ganondorf gets on Link 1v1, you're trash. So add a few % to get the line for fodder.

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and in 2018 that was...20%!

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I stand by the standard for Link being Link/Ganondorf.

If you're below where Ganondorf gets on Link 1v1, you're trash. So add a few % to get the line for fodder.

I respect a fodder line that puts CATS above it.

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If Ness boosted, it wasn't by very much. In 2010 he was worth 36.1% against Tifa, and in 2018 he was worth 38.7% against Bowser. He's always been pretty good when another Nintendo character isn't in the poll - that's when the hierarchy asserts itself and makes him look bad.

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KamikazePotato posted...

In 2010 he was worth 36.1% against Tifa

That's extrapolated through Big Daddy, though, which deserves an asterisk due to Missingno's effect. Also, he didn't look pretty good with three non-Nintendo characters in the poll in 2007, just saying...!

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Big Daddy faced Ness and then faced Tifa in the next round. Missingno didn't affect that.

He looked fine in 2007 too. Alucard and Liquid were strong in 2007 (well, Alucard is even stronger now but you get what I mean). I'm not saying Ness isn't amazing but he gets the job done when it's reasonable for him to do so. He's like the definition of a stable midcarder. He'll never rise above his station, and if you can beat him you're worth something.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Big Daddy faced ... Tifa in the next round.

Here's the thing: I'm quite certain Missingno backlash caused Tifa to underperform there, which in turn makes Ness look better than he should. I don't think you can explain going from 40% on Tifa to ~30% on Pikachu entirely by applying the standard fall Western game characters suffer when they lose their relevance.

KamikazePotato posted...

He looked fine in 2007 too.

Not really. He probably would have been 60-40'd by Alucard 1-on-1, considering where the overlap was in that match, and Alucard lost cleanly to Yuna the next round.

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Eh, I can believe someone like Big Daddy would be pretty volatile in terms of strength. He wasn't anything special in 2008 either. He lost to Balthier in that 4-way.

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Now its delayed til April 3rd ffs...

where does it say that

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It still starts on March 26th.
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KinjiMuto_3 posted...

Now its delayed til April 3rd ffs...

Yo no fake news plz

LeonhartFour posted...

Eh, I can believe someone like Big Daddy would be pretty volatile in terms of strength. He wasn't anything special in 2008 either. He lost to Balthier in that 4-way.

Also Big Daddy was fresh off of BioShock 2 where you play as one. And he's only a mascot mook at best anyway.

Now I'm starting to get the feeling I've played more of BioShock than much of this board.

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LMS plays one game and he starts getting arrogant about how much he knows

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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7911-

We're getting a re-run of this poll only 11 days after the original poll. This is one of the few exceptions where you could re-run so quickly after the original poll because coronavirus is a rapidly evolving situation. There's also been a huge change in results in just 11 days, with the "Not really" option being cut almost in half from the previous run of this poll.

The Geolocation results will be interesting to see, though. The quarantined option already got 25% in Italy in the previous run, so it will probably be even higher this time around.
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This poll is dumb because I am both #3 (laid off from work) and #4 (was going to WrestleMania week).

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Plus, there's no option for "a lot of stuff has been shut down but I still have to work anyway"

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Poll options are usually pretty crap on here. There's been loads of times where they mix stuff into different options.

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Sorry to hijack the topic but figure this was good a place as any.

Isnt there usually a guru topic posted by now where we enter our brackets to compete against other B8ers?

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The Guru topic usually goes up a day or two before bracket lockdown.
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Cool, thanks for confirming!

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No more fucking delays Allen.

We need this contest amid this shitty virus outbreak.

Can't wait for Thursday.

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

This poll is dumb because I am both #3 (laid off from work) and #4 (was going to WrestleMania week).

That isn't a problem unique to this poll. Other polls would have the same problem where more than one option could apply to someone, but the polls don't support multi-select (being able to select more than one option).
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LusterSoldier posted...

That isn't a problem unique to this poll. Other polls would have the same problem where more than one option could apply to someone, but the polls don't support multi-select (being able to select more than one option).

tbh a lot of polls have been lazy with choices.

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Today's poll is pretty interesting. When it comes to past polls, this is the most similar one I can find:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7654-

Though the options are a bit different from today's poll. In the poll above, 8.43% stayed in their home for the past 24 hours. In today's poll, it's currently 49.58% instead.
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LusterSoldier posted...

Today's poll is pretty interesting. When it comes to past polls, this is the most similar one I can find:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7654-

Though the options are a bit different from today's poll. In the poll above, 8.43% stayed in their home for the past 24 hours. In today's poll, it's currently 49.58% instead.

That was the Summer though. Too hot to stay inside

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This poll sucks too. There is a world of difference between 11 and 21 hours.

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So when exactly do brackets lock?

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Like an hour before the contest starts, which would be, what, 7 PM Eastern on the 25th?

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Contestant(s) may create their brackets beginning on February 28, 2020 and ending at 3:59:59 PM PDT on March 26, 2020 (the "Entry Period"). All Contestants must complete their brackets by 3:59:59 PM PT on March 26, 2020.

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So that's like 1 PM Eastern on the 26th, right?

When did matches start last time? I know we went to a weird start time as a sort of anti-rally measure, but I don't remember it being 2 in the afternoon. Maybe I'm just forgetful.

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hylianknight3 posted...

So that's like 1 PM Eastern on the 26th, right?

When did matches start last time? I know we went to a weird start time as a sort of anti-rally measure, but I don't remember it being 2 in the afternoon. Maybe I'm just forgetful.

6:59:59 EST


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