Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 247: Election Night 2019!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Suprak the Stud posted...

I don't see any states where Warren polls best against Trump

This is a bit unfair to Warren, Bernie and Biden are both already more known quantities and the election is still too far in the distance for most people to care beyond that.
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I don't disagree at all! I am in camp Warren so that wasn't meant to be a slam against her. I was just going off of current polling (which is obviously unreliable this far out).

I do think Warren has the most opportunity to grow out of those three being the biggest unknown.

I also think Trump has plenty of time to reign in those skittish conservatives as soon as any of the three vocally support abortion (which they will). He's polling consistently at 41-42% but I have to imagine that too will go up closer to the election. Conservatives always come home when it matters.
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What do you think she will do to reverse her current negative trend, Suprak?

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I think 41-42% is plenty good enough for Trump at this stage. He won with a popular vote of 46.09% in 2016 and he could have afforded to lose an additional 0.4% or so in every state without affecting his win. With the country getting more polarized geographically Trump might be able to pull off a win this time around with a popular vote total at 45% or lower. Every vote against Trump in CA and NY only decreases the national popular vote percentage Trump needs to win.
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Isn't that the same NYT poll that was posted yesterday? Not to discount it, I just would like to see more state polls like that.

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In the primaries?

I think it is just part of the wax and wane of election season. Berine saw a dip for a while too in the polling but is now coming back. Her last couple of debate performances haven't been great, but I think you could make the same point for all of the front runners and a little bit of primary fatigue might be starting to set in. I think Warren's plan is pretty clear. She has a strong ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire. I think she is going to try desperately hard to win those states, get early momentum, and build up a big enough lead to hold off Biden in all the southern states where he's going to dominate.

If she captures those early states, you could see her argue (realistically) that she is the best shot on the left against the more moderate lane in Biden in hopes of capturing the more liberal voting bloc from Sanders as a "well she's definitely a lot better than Biden" sort of compromise.

(I should also state that Sanders is my number two so if Warren falters and Sanders takes the nomination, I wouldn't care in the slightest. I like Warren because she is younger and I don't have the same health concerns I have with Sanders.)
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Yeah I'll be honest although I vastly prefer Sanders... just think about how much Sanders and the people he inspired have changed democratic politics.

Warren and Sanders being 2/3 of the top contenders for 2020...wow.

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Kevin McCarthy is apparently considering replaced Devin Nunes with sexual assault enabler Jim Jordan on the Intel committee

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Kevin McCarthy is apparently considering replaced Devin Nunes with sexual assault enabler Jim Jordan on the Intel committee

There are like two people in the House that would be worse than Nunez in that spot and Jordan is literally one of them xfd

Remember ABC News? You know, the folks who doctored Kentucky gun range video and pretended it was from Syria?

Turns out they had photographic evidence plus multiple witnesses ready to come forward and bring Epsteins ring (which included Bill Clinton and Prince Andrew) down for good. ABC killed the story entirely and ordered their staff to never talk about it again. This is unforgivable, and arguably criminal.

But go on pretending the mainstream media isnt lying to you 24/7, guys. Im just over here happily listening to what actual journalists are exposing. James OKeefe should be getting a nobel prize for his work if that committee was worth a damn.
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Remind us how many people were fired from Kotaku, Ulti?

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UItimaterializer posted...

Remember ABC News? You know, the folks who doctored Kentucky gun range video and pretended it was from Syria?

Turns out they had photographic evidence plus multiple witnesses ready to come forward and bring Epsteins ring (which included Bill Clinton and Prince Andrew) down for good. ABC killed the story entirely and ordered their staff to never talk about it again. This is unforgivable, and arguably criminal.

But go on pretending the mainstream media isnt lying to you 24/7, guys. Im just over here happily listening to what actual journalists are exposing. James OKeefe should be getting a nobel prize for his work if that committee was worth a damn.

https://twitter.com/markdice/status/1191766825945587714?s=21

The people who buy into MSM are in total ruins today. There is no defense for any of it anymore.

Oh, and who was right this entire time? As usual?

This guy.

Called it. Told you so. Vindicated.

Yet ABC was happy to run with every ridiculous kavanaugh smear
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Not official, but people on Twitter seem to think that Democrats have won control of the Virginia State Senate.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Remind us how many people were fired from Kotaku, Ulti?

"There is no possible way Ulti was at that Gaga show. That's what makes the BBC quoting him so hilarious."

https://twitter.com/Ultimaterializr/status/1185239806009204736?s=20
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Thats not my quote.

Also just saying, the caption on your tweet makes you look deranged to anyone who didnt read that topic, imo.

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A custom made metal gear solid
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Don't think any news agency has called it yet, but I've seen some data people saying it looks good for Beshear defeating Bevin for KY Governor.
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Ulti, your tweet doesn't prove you were there.

You do know that right?

Like, you probably were. But... it doesn't prove shit.
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xp1337 posted...

Don't think any news agency has called it yet, but I've seen some data people saying it looks good for Beshear defeating Bevin for KY Governor.

This gives me hope that maybe, just maybe, next year Kentucky can vote out one of the plagues on decency and democracy they've got in the Senate

Reg posted...

xp1337 posted...

Don't think any news agency has called it yet, but I've seen some data people saying it looks good for Beshear defeating Bevin for KY Governor.

This gives me hope that maybe, just maybe, next year Kentucky can vote out one of the plagues on decency and democracy they've got in the Senate

Not to throw cold water on this, but I would very much not count on that. Bevin is uniquely unpopular (I mean, I know McConnell's popularity polling is trash too but...) and Rs are doing just fine in other state-wide races.

That's not to downplay how big a win Beshear is here, just... don't want people to get their hopes up too high on McConnell's race in 2020.
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Yeah Bevin is an historically unpopular governor. Mitch is about as likely to lose a statewide race as Schumer.
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xp1337 posted...

Reg posted...

xp1337 posted...

Don't think any news agency has called it yet, but I've seen some data people saying it looks good for Beshear defeating Bevin for KY Governor.

This gives me hope that maybe, just maybe, next year Kentucky can vote out one of the plagues on decency and democracy they've got in the Senate

Not to throw cold water on this, but I would very much not count on that. Bevin is uniquely unpopular (I mean, I know McConnell's popularity polling is trash too but...) and Rs are doing just fine in other state-wide races.

That's not to downplay how big a win Beshear is here, just... don't want people to get their hopes up too high on McConnell's race in 2020.

Sure. But this moves it from "pipe dream" to "it is literally not impossible for a Democrat to win a state-wide vote in the current political climate"

Why would Kentucky vote out the most effective US Senator since.....ever? I was thinking Henry Cabot Lodge, but really voting down the Treaty of Versailles is nothing compared to Mitch's achievements.
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Rest of Jefferson County (Louisville) just dropped on WaPo and NYT's trackers. Beshear up 14,000 with 98% reporting. Should be over, I think.
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NBC and Decision Desk have called the race for Beshear.
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Also, if I'm looking at this right, NYC has approved Ranked Choice Voting.
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NYT and WaPo's trackers both now have a called Democratic majority in the VA Senate, flipping control (21/40 so far. 21-16 in called elections with 3 yet to be called (1 led by Ds, 2 by Rs.)
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Doubt McConnell is actually vulnerable but hes probably sweating it and is going to have to spend alot more than hed really need to
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WaPo's tracker has now called the Democrat in 51 races in the VA House of Delegates (51-39 in called races. 4-5 in not called races, and apparently one district had write-ins win or something idk), giving them the majority, flipping control and combined with the Senate flip they've flipped the entire legislature and now control the Governor's seat, Senate, and House giving them full control for the first time since 1994.

NYT's tracker still has them at 50 calls but I've noticed it's been lagging behind WaPo a few minutes across both VA and KY tonight.
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Dems maintain the House in Virginia too. There's a good chance they pass the ERA.
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Dancedreamer posted...

Dems maintain the House in Virginia too. There's a good chance they pass the ERA.

It was a flip, not a hold! Remember, the Republicans held control before this election by literally drawing a name out of a bowl!
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Kentucky haaaaates McConnell, and the only thing keeping him there is the R next to his name, so he's definitely gotta be sweating now

He's probably not going anywhere because people will be more likely to turn out for that, but he has a lot in common with Bevin on that front.
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I seriously doubt McConnell loses to a Democrat, but since he's so hated in Kentucky I have to wonder if he could lose in the primary. Any chance of that happening?
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Yesssss full Dem control in VA! Very proud of my home state.

McConnell did pretty badly in 2014 (which was a great year for the GOP) relative to how red Kentucky is (I think he only won by like 15?). I dont think him losing next year is totally out of the question.

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Dancedreamer posted...

Dems maintain the House in Virginia too. There's a good chance they pass the ERA.

How perfect would it be for the first act of a new Democrat majority to pass a meaningless and not-actionable amendment that died 40 years ago
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Trump had endorsed Bevin and campaigned with him in Lexington the night before the election, where the president told supporters that a loss by the GOP governor would be portrayed as Trump's having suffered "the greatest defeat in the history of the world."

fucking looool

edit: whose idea was it to kill html support?

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StealThisSheen posted...

Kentucky haaaaates McConnell, and the only thing keeping him there is the R next to his name, so he's definitely gotta be sweating now

He's probably not going anywhere because people will be more likely to turn out for that, but he has a lot in common with Bevin on that front.

Mitch's approval rating in 2014 was 36% and he won his election by 16 points lol
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Meanwhile, in Texas, just under half of precincts across the state are reporting in the results I can find. They're all state constitutional amendments, though that's primarily because of how the state constitution is structured.

Prop 1 (Allowing people to be elected to multiple municipal judgeships simultaneously. A person can already be appointed to multiple judgeships under existing law as long as they do not hold an elected position) looks to be comfortably voted down (By about a 2-1 margin).

Prop 2 (Allowing the Texas Water Development Board to issue bonds) is passing by a very wide margin (about 85% yes votes)

Prop 3 (Requiring local governments to provide property tax exemptions in areas declared disaster areas by the state governor) is passing with a similar margin

Prop 4 (The previously discussed one making it harder to institute a state income tax. Changes the requirements from majorities of each chamber + statewide referendum to 2/3 of each chamber + statewide referendum) is passing by about a 3-1 margin. It is also important to note (Because fucking morons literally believe this) that this prop getting voted down would not result in an income tax coming into existence.

Prop 5 (Requiring the legislature to use the sporting goods sales tax to fund the Parks and Wildlife Department, as the tax was originally intended to do) is passing with a similar margin to props 2 and 3

Prop 6 (Increasing the maximum amount of bonds the state can issue to fund the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas from $3 Billion to $6 billion) is passing by about a 2-1 margin

Prop 7 (Increasing the amount of money the General Land Office can direct to the Available School Fund each year from $300 Million to $600 Million) is passing by about a 3-1 margin.

Prop 8 (Creation of a Flood Infrastructure Fund, managed by the Texas Water Development Board) is passing by about a 3-1 margin

Prop 9 (Exempting precious metals held in Precious Metal Depositories from property taxes) is currently showing a roughly 54/46 margin, which is close enough that it is not totally inconceivable that it could flip or become very close. Information I can find suggests that this tax is not currently enforced/collected even without this amendment.

Prop 10 (Allowing transfer of law enforcement animals to their handler or another qualified caretaker. Current law considers them surplus state property and requires them to be auctioned or donated) is passing by a more than 9-1 margin.

Reg posted...

Prop 10 (Allowing transfer of law enforcement animals to their handler or another qualified caretaker. Current law considers them surplus state property and requires them to be auctioned or donated) is passing by a more than 9-1 margin.

who the **** voted against this

i know it won 9:1 but how was it not 100:0
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Some video of what Tony was referencing:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1191894907801214977?s=21
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xp1337 posted...

Reg posted...

Prop 10 (Allowing transfer of law enforcement animals to their handler or another qualified caretaker. Current law considers them surplus state property and requires them to be auctioned or donated) is passing by a more than 9-1 margin.

who the **** voted against this

i know it won 9:1 but how was it not 100:0

good question LMAO

My only guess is uninformed people who thought the law already provided for that and didn't see the need to enshrine it in the state constitution.

Reg posted...

Prop 3 (Requiring local governments to provide property tax exemptions in areas declared disaster areas by the state governor) is passing with a similar margin

I declare all of my property to be a disaster area
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And yeah this is fun and all but McConnell has a weaker opponent who just lost a Kentucky house race in what was supposed to be a competitive district in a wave election year. Hes been hugely unpopular for years and hes still won by double digits. Hes the most powerful member of the senate.

Hes not going to lose, sadly.
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xp1337 posted...

Reg posted...

Prop 10 (Allowing transfer of law enforcement animals to their handler or another qualified caretaker. Current law considers them surplus state property and requires them to be auctioned or donated) is passing by a more than 9-1 margin.

who the **** voted against this

i know it won 9:1 but how was it not 100:0

People who wanted the dogs maybe
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What another great election night for democrats!

You almost never get sick of all this winning.
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Also I would wager 10% of people probably dont understand the ballot measures they vote on
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Jakyl25 posted...

Also I would wager 10% of people probably dont understand the ballot measures they vote on

Considering they're written in obnoxious legalese, I can see this figure being off by a factor of 2. Especially for measures that were not well-publicised or debated (which was basically all of them except 4 this year)

Theres also always a contingent of people that consider all government to be evil and just vote no on everything.
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https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1191926451269984256
lmao

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https://twitter.com/BGPolitics/status/1191921175775137793

what the fuck

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