Board 8 > College Football (NCAA) Discussion Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

also hello to my Vols and somehow making it to bowl eligibility after that 1-4 start
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LeonhartFour posted...

goodbye Oregon and the Pac-12

basically confirms the SEC will get two teams in the playoff this year so now it's just a matter of figuring out which two

Utah still has a pretty high chance if they win out

Oh yeah, I guess Utah is technically still alive.

I still think UGA and LSU would get in over Utah if UGA wins the SEC Championship though.
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I'm not even 100% that Utah leapfrogs Alabama, but I think they do. I think.

Georgia winning the SEC championship is the doomsday scenario yeah.

I do think much like 2011 if Alabama got in ahead of a 1 loss Utah and 1 loss Oklahoma that would greatly speed up the expanded playoff.

(I say this as someone who knows OU is not a top 4 team this year)
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I think Utah would leap Alabama without Tua. You kinda have to take that into account.

Best case scenario for Utah is Auburn beating Alabama and LSU blasting Georgia into the ground. Both of which are possible, I think. UGA has a really good defense, but something has been wrong with their offense since that loss to South Carolina.
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Unbelievable series of ref screw jobs just cost us a bowl game. Pac-12 refs are pathetic.
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Why would you expect anything else from Pac-12 refs?
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I'll be cheering on Auburn because it will piss me off to no end if Alabama back door into these playoffs again off the back of beating nobody and not having a title to go with it either. I don't care that they won the whole thing last time it happened, they barely deserved to get in that time either.

Eh, they deserved it more then than they would this year. A generally weaker SEC means they have zero quality wins this year. Heck, even if they beat Auburn, that would give the Tigers 4 losses, though they would all be against top ten teams.
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They deserved it more than they would this year but it was more circumstances and a shitty system that put them in.

The alternatives were:

An Ohio State team that looked better than them with a stronger SOS but had a ridiculously unforgivable loss on their schedule

A Wisconsin team who effectively got punished for having to play a championship game that Alabama didn't (i.e. they were unbeaten in regular season but lost the Big Ten title game by 1 score to Ohio State)

A Penn State team who had the #2 SOS in the country with 2 losses on the road by a combined 4 points. 1 to a walk off FG and another to a ridiculous 4th quarter comeback to lose to Ohio State by 1 point

An unbeaten team who had as many ranked wins as Alabama but because they played outside the P5 they would never be considered

I mean I get it, the committee would have had to be ballsy as fuck to pick anyone but Alabama. Really though they got in because the committee didn't dare put any of the above in rather than because they deserved it. I think 3 of the 4 above probably had a legit chance to win it all like Bama did

If Bama smokes Auburn, they won't have any great wins, but they will have absolutely destroyed literally everyone they played against, barring a close loss against the clear #1 team in the country when their QB was clearly hurt.

Exactly what "quality wins" do you think, say, Oklahoma has?
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Current SOS as of yesterdays games (EDIT: Actually it isn't updated yet so that SOS is as of Nov 16 games not Nov 24)

Oklahoma 31
Alabama 52

If Oklahoma win out they will have 3 ranked wins (2 more than now). If Alabama wins out they will have 1 ranked win (1 more than now). So I'm pretty sure Oklahoma's SOS will be higher than Bamas by season end.

Also that Alabama 52 is being propped up by playing LSU. If you remove that LSU game and treat Alabama as an undefeated team instead, they have a SOS that is similar to Clemson who have been trashed for their SOS. Both of them would have a SOS that is in the area of what UCF had in their undefeated years when they were kept out due to not beating anyone and having shitty SOS

Oh it just updated.

Oklahoma SOS 27
Clemson SOS 62
Alabama SOS 63

So Alabama now has a worse SOS than Clemson despite being propped up by playing LSU. And Clemson are getting canned for their shitty SOS.

If you take that LSU game out and treat Alabama as an undefeated, they would have a worse SOS than UCF in the years they were kept out.

Oh wow, now that I looked into it further it's actually impressive that Alabama has such a bad SOS because the SEC West is ranked as having the highest SOS by conference. They have the worst SOS in the SEC.

South Carolina 4
Miss State 5
Auburn 6
Florida 19
Georgia 26
Arkansas 28
Ole Miss 29
Tennessee 35
LSU 40
Texas A&M 43
Vanderbilt 45
Missouri 53
Alabama 63

I know it's just a quirk of how their schedule is this year but obviously not helped by their OOC schedule either

Well, ya know, they don't have to play Alabama, so

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Bama's SOS is hurt by the fact that they're the only SEC West team that doesn't have to play Bama.
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swirIdude posted...

Bama's SOS is hurt by the fact that they're the only SEC West team that doesn't have to play Bama.

This. The point is, they can't control the SEC schedule. You can bitch at them for having a weak non-conference if you want, but Oklahoma is just as bad there, and don't even get me started on Baylor.

And, to repeat myself, they've completely destroyed everyone on their schedule. No close calls. No close to close calls.

Oklahoma; on the other hand, spent the past two weeks almost losing to Baylor and almost losing to TCU. Clemson almost lost to freaking North Carolina.
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And don't forget almost losing to Iowa State!
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Don't give me that they don't have to play Bama shit. LSU has a SOS significantly above Bama, they are in the SEC West and don't get to play themselves who are higher ranked than Bama

Clemson are literally being criticized for shitty SOS this season despite Bama's being weaker. I haven't heard anyone criticize Bama's SOS. We also had UCF be dominant without a loss at a similar SOS to Alabama and they didn't even get in sniffing distance of playoffs. Alabama should be held to the same standard as every other team and if their SOS is shit they should be penalized for scheduling an atrocious OOC schedule.

I've heard plenty of people criticize Alabama's lack of a real quality win.
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Leonhart4 posted...

I've heard plenty of people criticize Alabama's lack of a real quality win.

Plenty of people have! But the committee doesn't seem concerned. So the only way to ensure Bama is out is for them to lose to Auburn.
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OU defeated Texas, Iowa State, Baylor, and TCU (basically the middle of the Big 12) by a combined 15 points.

Alabama defeated South Carolina, A&M, Tennesee, and Mississippi State (basically the middle of the SEC) by a combined 94 points.

If they played head to head, Alabama would be at least a 7 point favorite.
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Fun game so far
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Alabama lost guys... On a 12 man on the field penalty to seal it.

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Alabama losing the only 2 meaningful games on an atrocious SOS slate and no longer being able to backdoor their way into the playoffs makes me so happy. I have said all season they hadn't beat anyone and their SOS was awful but they got a pass because they were Alabama

Need to stop judging teams on their name and more on what happens on the field

I am going to be so annoyed when they are still like #10 in the rankings. Shouldn't even be top 20 at this point. 0-2 against opponents in the top 30+

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One major roadblock out of Clemson's way.

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If they had won they would have possibly made it in, or been a lot closer to being in, than UCF ever got despite UCF playing a stronger SOS, having more ranked wins and UCF being unbeaten. But herp derp it's Bama and the SEC so even if they literally best nobody all season they have to be Top 5 if they have 0-1 losses

Let's be clear here: Alabama is going to fall to #8, maybe #9 in next week's poll, and that will be roughly correct - Alabama's two losses would be both road games against tough opponents that they nearly won, and they've been dominant in all their wins. Don't get too sassy about Alabama's weakness just yet.

Correction: Alabama lost to LSU at home, I'm dumb

it was still a really close game against a top 2 team though so the loss doesn't really affect them that much

they haven't really beaten any good teams but they've also never lost to anyone who isn't great

Alabama was clearly the second best team in football. Them being eliminated is a huge boon to the other contenders.

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Corrik7 posted...

Alabama was clearly the second best team in football. Them being eliminated is a huge boon to the other contenders.

Second best? Interested to see who you have above and below them.

Also it drives me crazy that Alabama is still getting the benefit of the doubt for being dominant against shit teams. UCF were just as dominant against bad teams, had a similar SOS, had more ranked wins and had zero losses. None of you would let UCF anywhere near the top 4 yet you all seem to rate Alabama way higher

ShatteredElysium posted...

Second best? Interested to see who you have above and below them.

Also it drives me crazy that Alabama is still getting the benefit of the doubt for being dominant against shit teams. UCF were just as dominant against bad teams, had a similar SOS, had more ranked wins and had zero losses. None of you would let UCF anywhere near the top 4 yet you all seem to rate Alabama way higher

You sound bitter.

Clemson is the best. Then Alabama. Then Georgia. Then LSU. Then Ohio State. Then who cares at that point.

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Wait Alabama has 2 losses now?
Ha

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If I was a UCF fan I for sure would be bitter. The system is a joke that is more geared around TV ratings and names rather than actual play on field

I'm an Ohio State fan so it's not even like I'm negatively impacted by the system but I still think it's stupid. I know that the vast majority of the time the group of 5 are far worse than the P5 but then in the very rare instances that they aren't they are just overlooked and there's only a small window for those teams. Meanwhile big name teams who are undeserving get in.

Also no way are Alabama better than LSU or Ohio State. I could see a case for Clemson who have played nobody but not the other two.

ShatteredElysium posted...

If I was a UCF fan I for sure would be bitter. The system is a joke that is more geared around TV ratings and names rather than actual play on field

I'm an Ohio State fan so it's not even like I'm negatively impacted by the system but I still think it's stupid. I know that the vast majority of the time the group of 5 are far worse than the P5 but then in the very rare instances that they aren't they are just overlooked and there's only a small window for those teams. Meanwhile big name teams who are undeserving get in.

Also no way are Alabama better than LSU or Ohio State. I could see a case for Clemson who have played nobody but not the other two.

Alabama would beat Ohio State 8/10 times if they played. Maybe 9.

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ya go my Vols

First winning season in 3 years
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Jalen Hurts at OU making the playoff while Saban/Tua miss it is gonna be sweet
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not gonna happen
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Utah's going to be so pissed when Oklahoma passes them and they still end up the first team out.
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Meow1000 posted...

Utah's going to be so pissed when Oklahoma passes them and they still end up the first team out.

yeah there's gonna be a lot of people who are pissed about this despite the fact that it's obviously going to happen

Paratroopa1 posted...

yeah there's gonna be a lot of people who are pissed about this despite the fact that it's obviously going to happen

Neither Utah or Oklahoma is getting in.

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Paratroopa1 posted...

Meow1000 posted...

Utah's going to be so pissed when Oklahoma passes them and they still end up the first team out.

yeah there's gonna be a lot of people who are pissed about this despite the fact that it's obviously going to happen

To be fair why is Utah even ahead of them to begin with.

But yeah Oklahoma probably passes them this week, won't even take until they beat Baylor.
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UNC bowl eligible. Suck it plebs.

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I don't know why Utah is ahead of Oklahoma, it's a good question

I dunno. The committee has done weird things like flip flopping the order in the very last standings of the year, so it might not hold, but OU hasn't looked that great over the last month or so of the season.

(Never forget how horribly TCU got hosed in the first year of the playoffs)
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Utah's resume is an absolute joke. They aren't even Top 10 IMO.
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I haven't seen enough of Utah to give a solid opinion on them but from what I could gather from the pundits, their ranking was based on stout defense? I did watch the game last night and I think they said when Colorado scored the TD last night, it was the first TD scored against them since September which now that I look at their schedule is horseshit because Washington put up 28. Unless they meant at home only

Anyway they can easily leapfrog Oklahoma ahead of Utah if they want. Oklahoma played ranked opposition yesterday, Utah did not. They both play in title games and barring anything screwy, Oklahoma's opponent will be higher ranked too.

I think the most realistic chance of getting the strongest playoff would be for Georgia to beat LSU and we would be left with Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, LSU for the playoffs.

The issue this year is that all the teams outside the unbeaten 3 have flaws on their resumes. Whether it be a bad loss, multiple losses or terrible SOS.

The entire Pac-12 is basically a mediocre mess.

Everyone loves to focus on how Oregon almost beat Auburn while conveniently forgetting that Texas almost beat LSU.
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