LogFAQs > #913553675

Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

So youre just going to pretend 2K5 didnt have the biggest voterbase shift weve ever seen? Really?

2k5 has no reason to disproportionately favor Mario over Samus to that degree. Period. They're on the same boat. I mean you can feel better about the match after seeing yesterday all you want but frankly you really shouldn't. There weren't enough data points in 04 to really feel that confident about a 10% shift. Reasons that the match would be closer this year simply didn't exist then regardless of how you feel about their relative strength in 05 or 04.

As I said this year them being close wasn't really that shocking. I called both meetings correctly and still deny it would be that close in 04. It's simply a null tell. Too much is different now.

Theyre on the same boat. No. Theyre not. Mario team was on roids that year, and Samus is our most stable character with Link. You are in straight up denial trying to pretend Samus was on the same boat as Mario that year.

Im not really sure what the rest of that paragraph means.

But obviously I never claimed there was a 10% shift. I said at most Mario gets 55% in 2K4. And now Im claiming that to say with 100% confidence that Mario beats Samus in 2K4 is now debunked, since a Mario who is closer in strength to her only edged her out. You are being unreasonable if you think it is impossible for a weaker Mario to not be able to lose to her. Mario had some bad performances before 2K5. Why couldnt he lay an egg against her?

Note that I absolutely am not saying Samus beats Mario pre-2K5. I am saying that your prediction of Mario with 60% that you keep bringing up would unquestionably have been wrong in 2K4, as your reasoning did not include the site shift. The only thing up for debate is how wrong it would have been.

Lopen posted...

And I will say if anything this year's meeting empowers the idea of indirectly Mario looking weaker than Samus but still whooping her, considering either he or Tifa had to rSFF or else the match projected to 52%+ win for Samus

Mario seems to be getting 3, maybe 4 points of rSFF here. A Mario who isnt at 48% on Samus to begin with shouldnt be able to whoop her.

I do believe Mario could get more in 2K4 than now despite being weaker, because as Ive said I think SFF is wonky and unpredictable, and Samus might be more sympathetic now precisely because of the first matchs notoriety. But I do not think he would be able to whoop her, unless you have a modest sub-55% definition of whoop.

Im just amazed youre clinging to desperately to these notions. I honestly thought this result would bury this Mario/Samus stuff forever. But I guess this Mario/Samus crap is going to be a zombie meme.