Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9

(+) Yeah! (+)

sonic looks like he's trying to do something (by just glancing at the % at least)
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sonic might fall from here but I think this is pretty good for him judging off of that auron match vs. zeldas squall and aeris matches. if he gets much closer, we could have a conversation about the snake match.
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Sonic will cut the lead in half a dozen updates but that's all he'll really end up doing here.
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its happening..?
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huh

you know what, lets do this

go samus
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I voted Samus just for upset's sake but I prefer Mario
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Moltars Bracket Says: Samus will win.

Moltars Prediction is: Mario: 49% - Samus: 51%

almost 13 years ahead of the curve

getting closer to vindication
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maybe in 2031, samus will finally win
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Samus will win in like 10 days fear not
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Lopen posted...

Samus will win in like 10 days fear not

That Ultimate Ridley boost is gonna put Samus over the top.
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I kinda figured Samus would hold up better than she did in 2005 because she held up better in 4-ways when she had to face Mario. I guess everyone expected a beatdown just because of how bad it was in 2005, but we've seen same company rematches be totally different than the first time.

like, say, Sephiroth/Tifa
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Mario needs the morning vote to beat Samus

what a new world
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yikes, I just looked at how awful tomorrow's matchups are

good luck with the writeups, Crew
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just reuse your writeups from the first times
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it's like we're really playing doki doki analysis crew
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God Im really feeling the 2005 now

Go my smaus
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Crew Predictions: 116/134

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 114
transience: 113
Kleenex: 108
Leonhart: 107
Guest: 104

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leonhart gets the point for Link and ctesjbuvf gets the point for Cloud.

transience: 33
Guest: 31 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (2), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats)
Kleenex: 30
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 19
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It seems like there was a serious mistake in bracket design in not simply placing every other loser's bracket entrant into the other half of the bracket. The current setup basically guarantees a bunch of rematches.
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Hopefully we can get some bonus matches after the contest ends. My idea was for some bonus matches involving only Noble Niners that have never faced each other in a 1v1 match. That requirement limits the pool of potential matches to the following:

Cloud/Mega Man
Crono/Samus
Crono/Sephiroth
Mario/Sonic
Mega Man/Samus
Sephiroth/Sonic

Mario/Sonic is the obvious match that most people want. I'd also choose Crono/Sephiroth to get a better read on Sephiroth's strength. Cloud/Mega Man could technically happen in the Losers bracket if everything goes right.
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Im pretty sure it was done for the purposes of trying to make the contest predictable, as in, you can have Zelda lose in the first round but still get some points if she wins a couple and then goes down to losers later on.
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@garetha200 will you or me win the award for best guest accuracy?
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Losers Bracket: Round 2 Pikachu vs. Mega Man

Monikas Analysis

Pikachu
Legends Round 1 - 50.11% vs. Mega Man
Legends Round 2 - 35.00% vs. Link

Mega Man
Legends Round 1 - 49.89% vs. Pikachu
Losers Round 1 - 60.03% vs. Ganondorf

This contest is so nice to the Crew that it gave us a second chance to try and predict this match correctly! Boy would it look bad if we missed this one twice.

Of the matches today, this is definitely the one that is more likely to flip. Only 62 votes separated them last time, and that definitely can change a week later.

Im going to say that the same result holds.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Losers Elite Eight? More like Endless Eight!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Pikachu 50%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

Today might be the worst day yet to be on the Crew. What do you even write here that wasn't written a week ago?

Others seem to have somewhat strong feelings about what a rematch means, but I feel less confident than ever about the future changing. I guess if I had to say anything, it's that Pikachu might be weaker after getting crushed by Link and the new Pokemon game being a week older? Maybe?

Seeing Samus do so well against Mario warms my heart and makes me want to pick Mega Man. I think I would feel best if Smash 5 was out and in people's hands since that's Mega Man's one big chance to shine. Yeah, Mega Man 11 is out but that game is essentially an indie game at this point. Smash 5 lets people explore the heart of Mega Man, one of the greatest character designs ever, and listen to some of that sweet, sweet music. Anyway, I'm picking Pikachu here. Prove me wrong, Mega Man.

transience's prediction: Pikachu with 51.65%

Leonharts Analysis

It feels like we just saw this match! Seriously though, I feel like whoever wins this time will win fairly easily, although Im still not sure which way to lean at this point. I think people are more likely to vote the other way just to get the result to change, but maybe Im wrong. Plus, maybe the fact that Pikachu is coming fresh off of a beatdown at the hands of Link may have taken a little bit of luster off of him. I suppose Ill bank on Mega Man to run it back here.

Leonharts Vote: Mega Man

Leonharts Prediction: Mega Man with 52.05%

Kleenexs Analysis

Well, we finally get to see how the rematches end working. I still wish these guys got shipped to opposite ends of the bracket, but here we are. I think theres a good chance we may see some flips, especially with the close matches. Mega Man is itching for some revenge, and he looked great against Ganondorf (who is a fraud). Pikachu got expectedly stomped by Link, so maybe his fans are deflated? I dunno, but Mega Man is definitely the plucky underdog this time, so I think hes got a good shot to flip this result and at least end the contest with some of his dignity intact.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mega Man with 50%

Guests Analysis - spooky96

Rematch? Zzzzz....So uh, what new data do we have since their previous encounter? For some bizarre odd reason I was expecting Pikachu to break 40% on Link thinking 'Pokemon is the best when it comes to avoiding SFF shenanigans!' Oh boy how wrong was I? That Link vs Pikachu match was one of the most embarrassing result I've ever seen, the rat couldn't even avoid getting doubled in such a late part of the contest, which is a very poor result no matter how you look at it. On the other side we got MM who 60-40'ed sprite Ganon which is an okayish result? As I'm writing this write up I kinda realize how pointless it is to think any further of this match is was so damn ridiculously close that result would literally flip depending on Pikachu or MM's luck that day. We got Pika winning that day, so for no reason at all, I'll believe in Mega Man today.

Mega Man with 50.05%

Crew Consensus: Were still sticking with Mega Man! This time in a 3-2 split.
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Is this the first time EVER that someone from the crew picked the winner with 50% percentage??? Because Moltar did it!
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Lopen's unofficial analysis x2

Mega Man v Pikachu
Mega Man out for REVENGE. Expect defectors. He'll also have a much better picture this time, probably. Those two combine and he wins somewhat comfortably on the rematch.

Mega Man with 53.85%

Crono v Bowser
Bowser? Not so lucky.

Crono with 53.85%
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gonna be great when Pikachu ends up winning by even more
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The losers brackets have lowered votals, which helps Pikachu out quite a bit.
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Hbthebattle posted...

The losers brackets have lowered votals, which helps Pikachu out quite a bit.

Unless the votals are from Gamefaqs registered users, in which case they will support Pikachu and counts double !

dammit moltar pick something else so i can catch up
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well I'm just glad we didn't ALL pick Mega Man again
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Losers Bracket: Round 2 Crono vs. Bowser

Monikas Analysis

Crono
Legends Round 1 - 54.88% vs. Bowser
Legends Round 2 - 44.00% vs. Cloud Strife

Bowser
Legends Round 1 - 45.12% vs. Crono
Losers Round 1 - 51.24% vs. Alucard

This contest is so nice to the Crew that it gave us a second chance to try and predict this match correctly! Boy would it look good if we nailed this match twice.

Of the matches today, this is definitely the one that is less likely to flip. Only 2,874 votes separated them last time, and that definitely wont change a week later.

Im going to say that the same result holds.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Losers Elite Eight? More like Endless Eight!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Crono 54%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

Unlike Pikachu/Mega, this match wasn't particularly close. I don't feel like Bowser really has any pull this year so I can't see a bandwagon forming around him after holding off Alucard of all dudes. I'll say it again - I'd feel better picking Bowser here if we had Smash 5 out, but as it is, he's just another dude. Crono probably wins by more after a somewhat encouraging performance vs. Cloud? What a dumb writeup this is. Sorry. Blame the bracketmaker for not slotting dudes on opposite sides of the bracket for the purpose of making it easier to get a double elimination bracket right.

transience's prediction: Crono with 55.63%

Leonharts Analysis

Like with Mega Man/Pikachu, I can imagine a lot of people voting the other way just in hopes of scoring an upset. I dont know if itll be enough to actually flip the result though. I guess its also possible the result is pretty much the same or Crono just wins by more. Its hard to come up with any interesting analysis about a 55/45 match we just saw a few days ago!

Leonharts Vote: Bowser

Leonharts Prediction: Crono with 54.75%

Kleenexs Analysis

This match, on the other hand, I dont think was close enough to see the result change. Crono ended up not being the world-beater I had hoped (not yet, anyway!), but he held up fine against Cloud - about where youd expect from a Crono from the early years of the contest. Basically Crono has looked about as average as youd expect, and an average Crono is still good enough to take on a Bowser (who might also be a fraud) for a second time.

Kleenexs Prediction: Crono with 54%

Guests Analysis - handsomeboy2012

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7361-finals-bracket-round-1-crono-vs-bowser

Yeah I'm that lazy

Crono with 54.88%

Crew Consensus: Crono does it again
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MasterMoltar posted...

Yeah I'm that lazy

I mean it was more efficient than the analyses above!

I can't hate the writeup but it kinda begs of question of why sign up? I can't say I mind though
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I write more about this one than I have coming up for Sonic/Snake!
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I don't think Crono/Bowser Part 2 deserves a different writeup.
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I think this was the last one to sign up?

Imo you could say there is a value in replacing pointless, repeated information for actual humor.

I think there's some interesting stuff to consider about how a rematch affects the match, but ultimately Pikachu/Mega Man is the more interesting one to discuss there. No matter what you value rematch deviation at it's hard to think it's going to flip a 55-45
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hmmm

I guess the rematch factor is at its strongest in the opening minutes, whatever direction that may be
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man I love mega man but winning a rematch isnt even satisfying
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Well if anything we are learning rematch factor is really strong.

Doesn't bode well for Mario.

I think my posts are fated to jynx matches.

transcience posted...

Im pretty sure it was done for the purposes of trying to make the contest predictable, as in, you can have Zelda lose in the first round but still get some points if she wins a couple and then goes down to losers later on.

Ah, good point. You get screwed over double if someone you had losing in the first round loses in the second. (Not the third, since proper mixing would have them winding up right back where they are this way.)
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nailed it
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At this point rallling for your favorite character to win a match in Legends is actually counter-productive. It will empower their opponent in Losers.

I dont think theres much of a rematch factor here. maybe 2%? you could chalk that up to variance as much as anything.

I guess we have some big Samus hype if she can get by zelda and snake though. or maybe zelda beats mario, who knows
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

At this point rallling for your favorite character to win a match in Legends is actually counter-productive. It will empower their opponent in Losers.

Mega Man/Pikachu currently has 300 more votes than it did last time this match was held. Mega Man winning when there's higher vote totals is pretty in line with the stats that me and Luster looked at. That has room to change though!
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Samus has to get by Tifa first

10% swingaround, let's do this
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transience posted...

I can't hate the writeup but it kinda begs of question of why sign up? I can't say I mind though

No one else wants to do it so I might as well. There really isn't much time for me to do a proper writeup, and it's a rematch.

Well, this is really good news for Snake if nothing else.

Maybe Samus, too, since this would be enough of a swing for her to win a rematch.
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