Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9

(+) Yeah! (+)

transience posted...

yeah, we'll need to see if we get a legit mario result to adjust sephiroth through because yikes ryu and frog

One way to get that adjustment would be if Samus beats Mario, which would give us Mario/Tifa in the Loser bracket. And I don't have much hope that Samus pulls out the upset.

As for getting a much better indirect measure of Samus/Mario than using an unreliable Tifa/Seph match, Snake would have to run through the Loser bracket while defeating Samus and Cloud to face Mario.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Ryu ~ Frog certainly shouldn't be a thing but no adjustment of Sephiroth based off Mario can wipe away that Ryu looked bad this contest thanks to barely outdoing Amaterasu against Sephiroth and barely outdoing Fox's 2010 result against Lloyd.

Also: Zelda and Snake are projected to double Sub-Zero and Jill, who are right next to each other? Umm.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3834-varia-division-round-3-samus-aran-vs-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3810-varia-division-round-2-samus-aran-vs-jill-valentine

Yeah 2018 Samus is so bonkers that 2010 Samus, who was really dang strong, looks like a joke compared to her.
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Crew Predictions: 114/132

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 112
transience: 111
Kleenex: 106
Leonhart: 105
Guest: 102

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Snake.

transience: 33
Kleenex: 30
Guest: 30 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (2), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf, MetalmindStats)
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 18
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transience posted...

yeah, we'll need to see if we get a legit mario result to adjust sephiroth through because yikes ryu and frog

I mean Frog is pretty much right in line with what he got on Samus in 2005

The Ryu number is pretty puzzling though
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There's no amount of adjusting that will make Ryu look 'right' because nothing's gonna change that Mario beat the snot out of Sephiroth and Ryu looked like a midcarder against Sephiroth.
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Chrono Trigger boost is real.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Chrono Trigger boost is real.

I think Crono himself is showing us that it's not that simple.

I dunno, he probably wouldn't have broken 40% on Cloud in 2010 or earlier! Also I wasn't completely serious.

As a joke, rank the following characters in order of hypothetical contest strength:

Jar-Jar Binks
Frank Underwood
Trumpy
Det. Dwayne T. Robinson
Adam Malkovich
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Legends Bracket: Round 2 Zelda vs. Sonic the Hedgehog

Monikas Analysis

Zelda
Legends Round 1 - 50.32% vs. Solid Snake

Sonic
Legends Round 1 - 54.32% vs. Auron

After Sonic put up that stinker of a performance against Auron, this dude can just get outta here. Snake got 60%+ on the same guy, and Zelda beat Snake. I cant see her getting this far, looking like a top character on GameFAQs, and then dropping the ball against Sonic of all characters.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: You know what's a neat form of analysis? Rap! I kind of wish I had a rapper in the Analysis Crew.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Zelda 57%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

I keep waiting for Zelda to hit a roadblock and it just hasn't happened. First it was "wait until she faces real competition" and she killed Squall; then it was "wait until it's Zelda vs. a video game icon" and she upset Snake; and now it's "wait until she faces someone Nintendo-adjacent that's higher on the hierarchy" with Sonic. I'm not convinced that Zelda actually has fans -- people who think she's one of the best characters in gaming -- and I'm waiting for those cracks to show as she faces more and more opponents.

I think the Nintendo hierarchy thing is a real possibility that has a real chance of happening against the right opponent -- but Sonic probably isn't that dude. Sonic kinda sucks this year. Auron and Squall are probably not that far off and we're looking at a 60%+ result for Zelda vs. a 54% result for Sonic. Sonic would need some kind of Tifa-esque "rSFF" to win this, and he's just not Nintendo enough for that to manifest.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 56.35%

Leonharts Analysis

Well, after what weve seen from Aurons two matches, this one seems pretty cut and cry, unless you want to claim that the sprites completely ruin the validity of the match against Snake. I feel like Im one of the only people who wants Sonic to do well in these things. Ive been rooting for all things Sonic in these contests since I picked Sonic 2 to beat Mario World in the original Games Contest! I picked a stupid Sonic upset nearly every contest until it finally paid off in 2006 against Crono. Id love to say hes got a chance here, but the writing is on the wall, barring something really weird.

Leonharts Vote: Sonic the Hedgehog

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 55.95%

Kleenatsukis Analysis

I think there may have been some debate about if Zelda could capitalize on her upset over Snake last round and keep things rolling against Sonic today, but after seeing how badly Auron got trashed by Snake, I feel like any doubt has to be gone. Sonic looked like hot garbage and Zelda is like #4 on the site now or something, I dunno. Well see how she holds up against Mario in the semis, but I dont think she should have any trouble dispatching Sonic here, unless some bizarre hierarchy nonsense rears its head.

Kleenatsukis Prediction: Zelda with 56%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Normally I write up my analyses as soon as Ive signed up for them, but Im glad I waited. I think I mightve been leaning towards Zelda in this match anyway, but after Tifa > Sephiroth, theres no reason to doubt! And furthermore, Link pulled an ALttP sprite rather than the Z1 sprite that Ganondorf got. That helps, because despite being in the title of the game, Zelda doesnt show up until the very end of the first game. Youll only see her if youve actually beaten it. Also, its an NES sprite. NES Zelda vs. Genesis Sonic, Id give the pic advantage to Sonic; SNES Zelda, Id say its a wash.

Zelda with 54%

Crew Consensus: Zelda continues her destruction of the Noble Nine
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The crew is siding against a NN'er? What is the world coming too?
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Lopen's Unofficial Guest Analysisx2

Zelda v Sonic
To hell with it, I'm going down with the ship here. To me this is a bunch of my theories lining up vs "dude I don't know this contest at all I'll just go with the flow here" and well, if I was one to give up on things cause I don't know I would've quit these things long ago to save face because I obviously don't know this contest at all. Let's explain why Sonic will win.

- Snake overperformed vs Auron cause of the infamous FF/MGS SFF. I thought it was mostly PS Era FF but FFX getting some of it wouldn't be surprising. This makes Sonic appear weaker than he should be.
- Sonic will HIERARCHY Zelda here even if he's indirectly a bit weaker as a respected figure in the Nintendo community.

These two combine and it means Sonic will squeak out a close win.

And with this, I've guaranteed Sonic won't win. Sorry Sonic :(

SONIC SPEED with 52.85%

Samus v Mario
When Seph/Tifa started I was ready to just put "GIRL POWER SUGOI~" and have Samus win with 53% and call it a day. Now I do think "GIRL POWER SUGOI~" exists but I'm less convinced it's enough to flip anything here. Mario beat Samus by more than Sephiroth had beaten Tifa and Tifa ultimately didn't win by much in the end as Seph did huge damage control after the opening bit, so while I expect Samus to make it much closer this time around, I don't think she can quite win outright. The power gap is just too high.

Mario with 52.85%
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Mario vs Samus in loser's bracket is where the real match is at.

If Mario beats Samus due to rSFF, I can totally see Nintendo fans flipping back to Samus just because they can.

I actually agree with you. Think pretty much every close match (like 53-47 or closer) will flip in Loser's. Guess time will tell

Of course Mario COULD beat Samus this time with like 65% just because I'm always wrong somehow even when consensus thinks I'm right
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Mushroom/Zebes Division Round 4 - Match 57 (1)Mario vs. (1)Samus

Mario - Warped down the wrong pipe this time.
Round 1 vs. Joanna Dark (Mario: 80.90% - Joanna: 19.10%)
Round 2 vs. Ness (Mario: 82.80% - Ness: 17.20%)
Round 3 vs. Zero (Mario: 62.86% - Zero: 37.14%)

Ouch, what was Zero fighting for? He gets owned by Mario.

Samus - Shes going to need every upgrade possible in this fight.
Round 1 vs. Ryu H. (Samus: 87.32% - Yuri: 12.68%)
Round 2 vs. Frog (Samus: 70.05% - Frog: 29.95%)
Round 3 vs. Ganondorf (Samus: 59.66% - Ganon: 40.34%)

Samus does decent against Ganondorfbetter than Seph did.

Well, its finally here. This match will either make, or break most brackets. The winner of this match here, has the best chance of going on and winning the Contest, kind of like Link/Cloud back in 2003. On one side, we have the legend, the icon, Mr. Nintendo, Mario! On the other side, we have the badass, the bounty hunter, Mrs. Nintendo, Samus! Fasten your seat-belts readers, this is going to be one hell of a ride!

Mario and Samus are Contest vets. Both have been around since 2002. Back then, Mario was under-performing against Servbot and Morrigan, SFFing Donkey Kong, and managing to somehow beat Cloud and Crono before losing to Link 62-38. Samus in 2002 had a much less exciting path. She made Ken Masters look great, beat Ryu easily, passed Sonic by a hair, and then lost to Sephiroth. Samus still ended up ranking higher than Mario 41.07% to 37.47%.

2003 rolled around and both were back to lay more carnage. Mario stomped Olimar, got 55% on Shadow, and then barely edged past Crono again. He then went on to get flattened by Sephiroth. Samus destroyed Issac and KOS-MOS, got 58% on Squall, then lost to Link 62-38. This year, Mario barely outranked Samus 38.18%-37.94%

Now lets move to 2004. Mario crushed JC Denton, SFFed Bowser, then lost to Crono 53-47. Samus out-lasted Mario by far. She obliterated Lara and Fisher so badly, people were thinking she could take down Cloud and Link. She then got 66% on Sora, 57.5% on Sonic, and then lost to Cloud in a 59-41 match. Samus easily beat Mario in the rankings 42.36% to 37.28%

Alright, now that weve looked at their history, we can see some things. Samus has outranked Mario twice, while Mario has beaten Samus only once. The one time Mario won was close too, while Samus easily beat Mario. Mario also looks to remain static over the three years, while Samus went down in 2003, then back up in 2004. Also, both of them have faced all the members of Clinkeroth, so lets look at that.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=999 Seph/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1363 Seph/Mario

Seph gets 52% on Samus in 2002, and 62% on Mario in 2003. Well, with the Square boost in 2003, its easier to see why Mario did so poorly, but if a rematch was done today, I would not only put Mario over Seph, but also Samus.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1361 Link/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1002 Link/Mario

Link gets 38% on both Mario (2002) and Samus (2003). Well, Mario did slightly better, but they still both pot up near equal performances on Link.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1780 Cloud/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=996 Cloud/Mario

Marioactually beat Cloud, while Samus got 41% on Cloud. I can say with 100% confidence that Mario would not beat Cloud today. He might be able to break 40% though.
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Alright, after a huge history lesson, time to get focused on this year, 2005. Before, Samus has looked better than Mario for the most part, but is that all going to change this year?

Mario has already taken down Joanna, SFFed Ness to the bottom of the barrel, and really impressed against Zero. Samus had the biggest blow-out of the Contest against Yuri, showed us that Frog was very weak by getting 70% on him, and showing to us that large amounts of SFF doesnt occur when two big Nintendo names go head to head when she got 60% on Ganondorf. They both have been looking great so far, but if I had to give the edge to someone, Id give it to Mario by an inch. Hes done nothing but impress us, and 63% on Zero is very shocking.

Mario also has the brackets on his side. Over 80% have him in the Elite 8, while less than 50% have Samus here. Mario is the favorite by the casuals to win, while Samus is the board favorite. Its going to be close here, guys. Weve already seen many times that there isnt much, if any, SFF in matches between stronger Nintendo characters, meaning Samus wins alone based on pure strength. Mario supporters though, have a nice argument on their side. Will a majority of the voters vote Mario, who is basically the mascot of Nintendo, over Samus, who rests on the second tier in the Nintendo hierarchy?

Since this is my analysis, Ill tell you what I think. Mario and Samus wont get any SFF on each other. They could, but it wont be huge either way. I think Samus will win on pure strength alone. Link couldnt get SFF on either of them, so its doubtful that either would get it on the other. However, if SFF does play a role here, then it would most likely go to Mario. This is a match for the ages, folks. Enjoy it while you can.

Moltars Bracket Says: Samus will win.

Moltars Prediction is: Mario: 49% - Samus: 51%
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Moltar what are you doing
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oh my
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that analysis had actual effort put into it

what a throwback
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Nice analysis. I want to see the other crew members though.
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I remember the days of 7 page Crew writeups

thank god we all got over ourselves
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7 pages? Really?
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I once did a ten post writeup about Ryu like 10 years ago

I have no idea how I managed it
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Hey if writing lengthy write-ups was all it took to get a permanent spot on the crew I'd have been invited a long time ago. I had a much longer idea for this one, too, but then Link showed up with a Z3 sprite instead of a Z1 sprite and I had to can my entire analysis.
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The crew was hardcore at the old days it seems.
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Ahaha~ whoops! I must have gotten stuck in a time warp. Lets try this again...

Legends Bracket: Round 2 Samus Aran vs. Mario

Monikas Analysis

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth

We can debate who is indirectly stronger between Samus or Mario until the cows come home, but in a direct match-up, there is no longer any question about that.

The three certainties in life:

Death

Taxes

Nintendo hierarchy

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: We just need to enjoy the present and not think about the past!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Mario 59%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

I've seen this one too many times to have any kind of hope for Samus. It doesn't matter what performances happen leading up to it -- Mario's going to drop a big number on her. Samus has the numbers edge walking into this match but I don't think the Tifa/Sephiroth match is anything close to an honest match. I'd still take Sephiroth over, say, Luigi or X. Because of that, I think Mario is legit stronger *and* has the hierarchy advantage over Samus.

The only thing that makes me pause is that Super Metroid vs. Majora match last contest, where Metroid actually almost upended our game of the decade. That's a big deal on a site that used to vote big for Samus but didn't actually like her games that much. Super Metroid and Metroid Prime grow each year as legit powerhouse Nintendo properties. Maybe she can hold up somehow vs. Mario? I mean, absolutely no. But let's see where it goes when she starts running through the losers bracket.

transience's prediction: Mario with 60.45%

Leonharts Analysis

Do we really have to have this match again? Ugh, I guess we do, and we might have it twice, to boot. Im at the point where Im just rooting for Samus to beat Mario just so we can stop having arguments over a match that happened 13 years ago, and I dont even like Samus that much. Unfortunately, that probably wont happen, but I think shell probably keep it closer than she did in 2005.

Leonharts Vote: Samus Aran

Leonharts Prediction: Mario with 54.67%

Kleenexs Analysis

Samus has everything going for her here. Better first round performance than Mario through Sephiroth and Tifa. Upcoming new game hype. Good picture (?). Higher seeding. The only downside is the fact that she can actually never beat Mario so none of the matters. Will people finally get retribution for 2005? No. No they wont.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mario with 58%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

Even on GameFAQs, its not 2005 anymore. Just as the logic that Samus supporters used 13 years ago was proven wrong, so too will the logic that says Mario will surely demolish Samus because he managed it back in 2005 be mooted. Do you want to know why, my dear reader?

Its because Samus has frankly looked stronger than Mario to date. Her percentage on Tifa was almost identical to Marios result on Sephiroth, and weve now seen Tifa comfortably beat Sephiroth straight up. On top of that, theres reason to expect Tifa to have fared even better against Samus than she would have against a neutral character of similar strength, given the past two times these two faced (not to mention every time Tifa faces another female character). Granted, it is possible (even though Im less and less convinced of it as time goes on) that Tifa could have pulled off some weird hierarchy reversal to beat Sephiroth. A combination of that and the arguably skewed match picture is why I merely portend that Samus has looked stronger, rather than outright being ahead of Mario indirectly.
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samus > mario was the first contest upset I got really into

and then

well we all remember how it panned out last time
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Ultimately, the reasons for why this could be, despite Nintendos current high-water mark, despite Odyssey, and despite Samus not having a big, well-received game in over ten years cut right down to the core of the shifts weve seen throughout this contest. To put it simply, shifts in the stock of companies, brands, and other groups of characters with similar trends are no longer the principal governing factor when considering contest-to-contest fluctuations in character strength. Instead, the stock of an individual game or series, and even voters levels of appreciation for characters within that game or series, have become much more relevant considerations. Its due to the former factor that the likes of Fox and Captain Falcon looked off, despite Nintendos rising tide, and this also explains cases such as Gordon Freeman, Commander Shepard, Ryu, and even Solid Snake himself.

Now, you might wonder how this first point relates to Samus. My theory is that nostalgia, in sufficient measure, has proven to be a substitute for actual relevance in the shining cases of games that are particularly near and dear to the hearts of voters. Perhaps in combination with the second point I make in the next paragraph, such characters as Aerith, Frog, Magus, Terra, Tifa, Vivi, and arguably even Ness have impressed despite their lack of recent relevance. There are some games that truly stand the test of time, and I think many people would agree that Super Metroid is among those games. Some would even point to Metroid Prime as being in that company, which produces two feathers in Samuss cap.

Of course, most of these examples are inexorably related to those characters being genuinely well-liked. In the past, this factor didnt matter as much as you might expect, with the likes of Crono, Sephiroth, Squall, and arguably even Sonic transcending their mixed reception or not being favorites of their games to put forth commanding performances. This year, however, Frog and Magus have looked great even as Crono has mostly failed to shake the ghosts of his past. Similarly, Sonic has seemingly lost a step, even as Tails and Knuckles proved highly impressive. Even Mario could fairly be put in the same company as Sonic and Crono as the respected symbol of Nintendo, hardly anyone dislikes him, but at the same time, very few people love him. By juxtaposing this with Samuss status as someone whos transcended the usual stereotypes to become the original and arguably the foremost badass character of gaming, we can approach an explanation for Samus looking stronger than Mario to date.

Finally, such results as Link falling short of 80% against Ganondorf, the Tifa upset I already discussed at some length, and even Cloud barely reaching 60% against Alucard suggest that formerly set SFF hierarchies of intra-company or intra-platform strength have, to some extent, broken down this contest. That can only be a good sign for Samuss chances of impressing despite being against Mr. Nintendo himself.

Does all that mean that Samus will shock everyone and actually win this match? Dont count on it, because Mario is ultimately the face of Nintendo and Samus isnt, and as Link is so ably demonstrating to us, even the diminished Nintendo hierarchy still matters. But dont be surprised if Samus is leading all through the power hour. In fact, dont be too surprised if it takes Mario until the Eastern Hemisphere night vote sets in to put this match away for good.

Prediction: Mario wins with 52.54%

Crew Consensus: Mario does it again in the runback
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Is that the actual write-up you made in 2005 or did you write a new one?

Anyway, epic thing you did here. Really hammers home the SFF thing.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Is that the actual write-up you made in 2005 or did you write a new one?

yes that's from 2005

you can see the other ones on this page http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/2005%20Summer%20Contest%20-%20Character%20Battle%204/Contest-Analysis-Crew-SC2K5-Part-2/genmessage5.html
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Wait, Vlado was a Crew member once upon a time? That's incredible.

Inviso, too.
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MetalmindStats posted...

Wait, Vlado was a Crew member once upon a time? That's incredible.

ulti and inviso ahaha
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I haven't thought about outback in a good while
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Sonic the Hedgehog................49.63% 49099
Mega Man..............................50.37% 49841
TOTAL VOTES...................................98940

31.25% of the brackets called this match correctly.

Mega Man was able to hold off Sonic with the night vote, and win the match. It was a great one though. Vote totals are kinda low for such a big match.

man
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2005 crew was dark times. What a band of goofs
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Everyone is a goof when they were 13-years younger. Looking up your old posts is the door to madness.
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speak for yourself, Brett

I am proud of all stupid things I did
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lol XD
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I wonder what the first minute looks like in mario vs. samus
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voting samus... best shot at sonic/mario for once. even though sonic would get butchered I wanna see it O_O
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i'm rooting for samus so we can argue if Mario/Samus 2005 was just SFF instead of rSFF.
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I expect Samus to lead into the first 5 minutes.
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ah there he goes. that was a fun minute.

Zelda not killing it like I thought she might early
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huh, Samus legit won the last two minutes there

dont tease me gamefaqs
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Should've went strong with the double upset Girl Power Sugoi~ at least I would've had some damage control for FAILURE SPEED.
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cmon samus!!! we might see soniku/marioh
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this is pretty good by samus. sffd samus is still way better than sephiroth, to the point that maybe there isnt sff here? shell drop, but this is a performance worthy of being called #3 on the site. I have much lower expectations of her than others when it comes to mario, though.
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yeah, not bad samus

lol sonic
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