Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9

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The Mana Sword
12/04/18 9:00:29 PM
#254:


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LeonhartFour
12/04/18 9:01:35 PM
#255:


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The Mana Sword
12/04/18 9:04:35 PM
#256:


snake isnt getting another crack at zelda!
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LeonhartFour
12/04/18 9:07:44 PM
#257:


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The Mana Sword
12/04/18 9:08:18 PM
#258:


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transience
12/04/18 10:38:27 PM
#259:


so, statwise I guess we would use this result (if MM holds on -- not a guarantee) and go off of the Crono/Cloud matches, possibly adjusting Pikachu above him if need be depending on how other numbers look? I want to see every NNer get theirs back as a weird homage. that would mean Sonic beating Zelda though and he would have to beat Snake first.
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour
12/04/18 10:39:35 PM
#260:


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transience
12/04/18 10:53:08 PM
#261:


oh yeah

damn you zelda you ruin everything (sup tifa)
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour
12/05/18 12:31:44 AM
#262:


Just a friendly reminder that Link/Cloud and Mario/Zelda are running on separate days and are each the only match running on that day.
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Mac Arrowny
12/05/18 1:57:06 AM
#263:


Statwise setting MM = Pikachu would make the most sense I'd think?
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
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LeonhartFour
12/05/18 1:58:49 AM
#264:


Well, for all intents and purposes, they're practically equal, even if Mega Man wins this (and I think he will), so it won't be too far off.
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The Mana Sword
12/05/18 9:56:30 AM
#265:


looks like pikachu is a fraud !!
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transcience
12/05/18 9:57:55 AM
#266:


dat 1% flip
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
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Lopen
12/05/18 3:45:44 PM
#267:


Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx2

Sonic v Snake
Not much to say on this one but I was clearly wrong on my speculation on Sonic and Snake. They both buck the trends set by their contemporaries in the bracket. Snake being okay, and Sonic sucking. Ulti style blowout coming.

Solid Snake with 57.78%

Tifa v Samus
I could link the match, but that's more effort than I wanna put in. I'll just ballpark what they got last time.

Samus with 57.78%
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
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Averia
12/05/18 3:46:42 PM
#268:


LeonhartFour posted...
Well, for all intents and purposes, they're practically equal, even if Mega Man wins this (and I think he will), so it won't be too far off.


At least the result is consistent.
If Pikachu had randomly got 40 or 60% this time, the stats would have just died.(even more than they already are)
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ZenOfThunder
12/05/18 4:01:17 PM
#269:


e8G9dZb

17 years later...

ZVepOdE

.
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drooling while eating
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MasterMoltar
12/05/18 4:32:26 PM
#271:


Losers Bracket: Round 2 Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Solid Snake

Monikas Analysis

Sonic
Legends Round 1 - 54.32% vs. Auron
Legends Round 2 - 43.55% vs. Zelda

Snake
Legends Round 1 - 49.68% vs. Zelda
Losers Round 1 - 61.48% vs. Auron

Those previous Legend and Losers matches speak for themselves here. Snake and Zelda are about equal, Sonic is a good deal behind them. Id expect Snake to do about as well as Zelda did on Sonic.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Hedgehogs fighting snakes? I thought this was a Character Battle, not an animal battle!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Snake 56%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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no space
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MasterMoltar
12/05/18 4:32:45 PM
#272:


transiences Analysis

I had Sonic over Snake for most of the bracketmaking period.. in winners, of course, because I wasn't omniscient enough to see Zelda as a top 5 character coming. I've been thinking for the last couple of days how crazy it is that our true semifinal in this contest is Link, Cloud and Mario -- arguably the 3 most notable characters in contest history -- and Zelda. It's just weird.

Anyway, I was really down on Snake because he just feels so out of touch in 2018, but clearly it's Sonic who's actually the fallen idol. How many guys beat Sonic now? Kirby does. Bowser probably does. PIkachu does. Zelda already did. Luigi, X, Tifa, Alucard, Vivi -- where does it stop? I thought Sonic Mania might be enough to keep him relevant, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that Sonic (and MM11, for that matter) are only there for existing fans. I don't think Sonic Mania was converting regular people into being Sonic believers, nor was it really boosting him up in people's hierarchies. Opinions of Sonic are largely baked in at this point and it would take something truly revolutionary to change that. Snake can drop but unless he drops off the map, he's still better than Sonic.

I wonder how we feel if Snake beats Zelda's percentage here?

transience's prediction: Snake with 57.79%

Leonharts Analysis

Well, weve got two points of comparison for these two, and they both overwhelmingly favor Snake. Oddly enough, the match where Snake had his sprite against Auron projects a bigger win than the match with Zelda. Regardless of how you look at it, its hard to find an argument for Sonic winning or even keeping it all that close. They just havent been on the same level since Snake got into Smash, and that hasnt changed.

Leonharts Vote: Solid Snake

Leonharts Prediction: Solid Snake with 56.95%

Kleenexs Analysis

Not much to discuss here. Zelda crushed Sonic and went even with Snake. Sonic has looked like junk. Im still not sure exactly where I put Snake in the NN rankings at this point, but its definitely ahead of Sonic. Gotta lose fast.

Kleenexs Prediction: Snake with 56%

Crew Consensus: Snake does what Nintendid.
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MasterMoltar
12/05/18 4:34:17 PM
#273:


Losers Bracket: Round 2 Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart

Monikas Analysis

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Legends Round 2 - 48.58% vs. Mario

Tifa
Legends Round 1 - 41.07% vs. Samus Aran
Losers Round 1 - 52.33% vs. Sephiroth

This contest is so nice to the Crew that it gave us a second chance to try and predict this match correctly! Boy would it look good if we nailed this match twice.

Of the matches today







You're such a good listener.
I really love that about you.
Sometimes I'm afraid that I'm rambling or talking about boring things.
It makes me kind of self-conscious when I'm having conversation.
But I don't feel that way with you.
Like, I don't think anyone else could make me feel this way.
You really are special.
I don't want anyone to tell you otherwise.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Hey...! I don't think you should be doing that! You know what I'm talking about. I really caught you doing something naughty here.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Samus 59%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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no space
all business
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MasterMoltar
12/05/18 4:34:29 PM
#274:


transiences Analysis

Unless the Sephiroth win put a massive bandwagon at Tifa's back, she's not turning this one around. Samus already had a super impressive performance against Mario, one that is beyond anything she should have reasonably been expected to do pre-contest. It's crazy to think that Samus > Mario is more likely than Tifa > Samus but it is. There are very, VERY few things amongst the NN that I would consider mortal locks but Mario > Samus is as close as I would get. I would sooner see Cloud beating Link than Mario over Samus pre-contest and yet here we are.

Just... don't do some weird zero suit picture. I can't take my queen struggling after coming so close to the promised land. If Samus beats Mario and faces Link in the final, you have to expect some kind of massive overperformance there, right? Especially when she gets a new game/remake/collection/whatever announced in two days OH YEAH MARIO IS GOING DOWN BELIEVE

transience's prediction: Samus with 58.11%

Leonharts Analysis

Were seeing a couple of rematches right now. The result in the close match is flipping, but the result in the match that wasnt very close is pretty much staying the same. I dont know if Tifa will have any momentum from taking out Sephiroth, but even then, it wont be worth enough for her to get close to Samus after how decisive their first match was. Tifas had a great contest, but this is sadly where it ends for her.

Leonharts Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonharts Prediction: Samus Aran with 58.17%

Kleenexs Analysis

Samus looked pretty dang good against Mario. Tifa did great to take out Sephiroth and upend the Final Fantasy VII hierarchy, but I have a difficult time seeing her being able to flip this result. Samus has just looked too good, and reversing a 60-40 match doesnt happen overnight (or three nights). Tifa has done great this year, but this is the end of the road.

Kleenexs Prediction: Samus with 58%

Crew Consensus: Metroid Prime 4 when
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Ranticoot
12/05/18 4:46:32 PM
#275:


I have had a theory with Sonic

Mania definitely did boost Tails and Knuckles since that game put them in the limelight again. Sonic got a deboost from Forces (which he is still a focus of which Tails and Knuckles are not) and generally being at the forefront of all the problems (see: most things aside Mania, and the Sonic Boom cartoon which almost nobody on this site watched) people have had with the series since 2013. The meme is never that Tails or Knuckles were never good. It's always Sonic.

This idea (side characters still doing well because they aren't the frontrunner, main characters get all the backlash) has been brought up for other characters and it's about as convenient of an explanation as I can think of it.
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Born to lose, live to win!
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Hbthebattle
12/05/18 5:06:56 PM
#276:


Again I couldnt get my Crew Thing Done in time, sorry about that
Sonic vs. Snake

Here it is: This match is pretty cut and dry- 44 vs 49 on Zelda. Snakes going to win here- the quest is by how much.

Snake: 54%
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SmashBurb is a generic anime swordsman.
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transience
12/05/18 6:06:59 PM
#277:


I think we can safely throw out the idea of any revenge factor. both of these matches are within 1%.
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xyzzy
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th3l3fty
12/05/18 6:18:18 PM
#278:


Crono might actually match his first percentage exactly
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -transience
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
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Surskit
12/05/18 6:38:52 PM
#279:


Oops, I didn't know this match was today! I signed up to the guest spot this morning.

Surskit's Last-Second Guest Write-Up

Here I am, repping for the guests. We just saw Mega Man win handily against the rat in its re-match, but we also just saw Bowser put up basically the exact same numbers against Crono. In other words, this match is a total waste, and there's nothing much to see.

So let's instead have fun and pretend that Tifa has been lurking in the shadows, just waiting to show her full power! 30 November was the last day of No Nut November, and the hentai fans were simply withholding from even looking at a pixelated picture of Tifa during the sprite round. This perfectly correlates with her performance against Sephty later. Indeed, today everything is different. The rallies are on, and they have valiantly assembled their forces to strike back against a woman who shamefully hides under the weight of a robotic suit. After pulling that ridiculous upset against Sephiroth, Tifa's fans are more determined than ever to keep her on the home page for as long as possible...!

Samus better be wearing her Varia Suit tight, folks! Tifa's revenge will be ever so sweet, as she manages to completely obliterate Samus by doing a whopping 1% better than in her last match!

Predix: Samus "Weaksauce" Aran - 57.93%
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.-#Elements of Water#-.
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transience
12/05/18 7:00:48 PM
#280:


snaaaake you suck
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xyzzy
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KommunistKoala
12/05/18 7:01:33 PM
#281:


are the samus and tifa pictures the literal same?

maybe this tifa one is more boobs I can't remember what her last one is anymore
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does anyone even read this
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KamikazePotato
12/05/18 7:05:44 PM
#282:


What a weird first minute.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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snake_5036
12/05/18 7:06:15 PM
#283:


KommunistKoala posted...
are the samus and tifa pictures the literal same?

maybe this tifa one is more boobs I can't remember what her last one is anymore

Tifa's is different, there's definitely a lot more titty here
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You felt your sins weighing down on your neck.
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transience
12/05/18 7:13:47 PM
#284:


I'm not convinced there's a face in that picture
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xyzzy
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Master Moltar
12/05/18 7:19:58 PM
#285:


samus powering up for that mario runback later
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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transience
12/05/18 7:20:25 PM
#286:


man, samus is going to kill snake

2006 redux
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xyzzy
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transience
12/05/18 7:20:36 PM
#287:


also: totally rsff
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xyzzy
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WarThaNemesis2
12/05/18 7:21:41 PM
#288:


transience posted...
man, samus is going to kill snake

2006 redux


At this point Snake matching his 2006 number would be a big Samus collapse.
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https://imgur.com/M1heX2g
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
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KamikazePotato
12/05/18 7:40:30 PM
#289:


There is no way this monster is weaker than Mario indirectly.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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TheKoolAidShoto
12/05/18 7:41:29 PM
#290:


KamikazePotato posted...
There is no way this monster is weaker than Mario indirectly.

No more of this KP
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Communists
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KamikazePotato
12/05/18 7:43:02 PM
#291:


We'll stop it once Samus stops eviscerating people and then immediately losing the second she runs into the Hierarchy!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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ZeldaTPLink
12/05/18 7:43:56 PM
#292:


Guys

Can Samus do the runback?
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KamikazePotato
12/05/18 7:44:17 PM
#293:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
Guys

Can Samus do the runback?

No
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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TheKoolAidShoto
12/05/18 7:45:05 PM
#294:


KamikazePotato posted...
We'll stop it once Samus stops eviscerating people and then immediately losing the second she runs into the Hierarchy!

Shes currently dominating a non cloud FF7 character who beat sephiroth...some hierarchy!
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Communists
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ZeldaTPLink
12/05/18 7:46:18 PM
#295:


Like that's probably the most hype match in history.

Imagine Samus coming off a bandwagon, after having destroyed Snake and Cloud, into a Mario who just got doubled by Link.
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ZeldaTPLink
12/05/18 7:47:43 PM
#296:


I have the same story with Crono in my bracket. But Samus is even more hype.
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The Mana Sword
12/05/18 7:48:27 PM
#297:


god sonic sucks

I might even take Sephiroth over him
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hylianknight3
12/05/18 7:52:48 PM
#298:


The Ultimate Insult
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If I only consulted the Gossip Stones like BKSheikah, instead of listening to Tingle, maybe I could have been the 2017 Guru Champ!
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The_Ctes
12/05/18 8:01:16 PM
#299:


For all we know, Tifa/Seph could be where all the rSFF is.
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Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.
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TheKoolAidShoto
12/05/18 8:10:54 PM
#300:


Samis cancels out TJF
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Communists
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LeonhartFour
12/05/18 10:01:53 PM
#301:


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transience
12/05/18 10:13:34 PM
#302:


yeah, this is the end of the bad matchups for a while though. we should have at least four interesting matchups in a row after this. (I have no idea how to gauge zelda vs. mario)

Leon, feel free to throw your stats up as conversation fodder if you're so inclined
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xyzzy
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The Mana Sword
12/05/18 10:14:46 PM
#303:


not sure if a routine Link win over Cloud is too interesting but well see!
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LeonhartFour
12/05/18 10:16:03 PM
#304:


I'm just curious to see what the gap is these days. It could be 53/47 like always or it could be 60/40.
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