Board 8 > Smash Bros Ultimate General Discussion 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

I'd sooner argue like Phoenix Wright or Bomberman are below 80% recognition than Sans is above it. Undertale's reach isn't nearly what you think. It's really easy to ignore it-- you're probably just in circles that are heavily saturated in it.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Undertale was impossible to ignore for like half a year and the Smash fanbase is pretty obsessive about analyzing every possible newcomer. There was some dumb Game Theory video that got millions of views where it went "What if Sans is Ness???" and for the rest of the month, every Miiverse drawing was about Sans. The game was recently announced for the Switch and had a trailer showcased in a Direct. I don't think that 80% is at all a high number among the demographic that would be voting in an online Smash poll being thrown around random forums.

So then what you're arguing is 80% of the voters know Sans, and then like 90% of those voters hate him?

'Cuz if you refuse to accept that it's obscure, then you're basically arguing it's popular but barely liked...?
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Phoenix Wright is probably below 70%, outside of the Objection meme that series is not nearly as popular as anyone on B8 would like it to be.

Bomberman is probably like 90% recognition in the demographic for people voting in that poll (which, again, is not at all an accurate representation of 'all gamers').
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'Cuz when you get down to it, this debate started because Sans is doing really bad in the results

I argue it's a mix of obscurity and anti-voting

But if you're arguing Undertale isn't even remotely obscure, then you're arguing that 90% of people that know of Undertale are going to vote against it
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StealThisSheen posted...

So then what you're arguing is 80% of the voters know Sans, and then like 90% of those voters hate him?

I have no idea where you're getting 90% from, all it would take to tank a character in that sort of poll is about 1/3 of people anti-voting you.

And yes, Undertale is very unpopular among people who haven't played it and/or the demographics outside of its scope.
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I think Ace Attorney + Marvel 3 would easily touch more gamers than Undertale. And I don't even think below 70% for Phoenix is inaccurate for the record.
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Undertale sold twice as much as MVC3 dude. If you add MVC3 + Ultimate Marvel + the entire PW series than yeah, but I also don't think MvC overlaps very well with the Smash fanbase at all. The PW fanbase would actually have much stronger demographic correlation and it's a much smaller fanbase to draw from.
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Yeah I dunno man I think you're p delusional about Undertale. Like you're saying SEP is going anecdote but I'm not sure where you are aside from anecdote. If you don't use Tumblr Undertale may as well not exist.

I'm not saying Marvel 3 is some huge mainstream thing. Just that topping Undertale ain't exactly hard. One cult series that has existed for over a decade will beat a single cult game, Marvel is just icing.
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KamikazePotato posted...

StealThisSheen posted...

So then what you're arguing is 80% of the voters know Sans, and then like 90% of those voters hate him?

I have no idea where you're getting 90% from, all it would take to tank a character in that sort of poll is about 1/3 of people anti-voting you.

And yes, Undertale is very unpopular among people who haven't played it and/or the demographics outside of its scope.

Because the way that poll is carried out isn't really anti-voting friendly. Like, it'd take a hell of a lot of patience for somebody to go "I'm gonna make up 30% of these votes by myself just to tank Sans"

Which makes it much more likely a lot of people just are voting against Sans moreso than a small amount of anti-voters tanking it

So either a lot more of those people don't know who Sans is than you're willing to admit, or for a game that is apparently known by 80% of the voters, it's insanely unpopular, which just doesn't seem logical to me given that it's being argued that the Smash fanbase overlaps with Undertale's so much.
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Random thought

List of Smash characters whose only appearance as a playable character is in Smash:

Dark Samus
Duck Hunt
King K Rool
Palutena
Ridley
Wii Fit Trainer

that's the whole list

and three of them are new

Sheesh, you guys really don't like undertale huh
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Isn't K. Rool playable in one of the Mario baseball games?
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Yes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnDuRZBIlAg" data-time="
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Wait what the fuck K Rool was even in a game beside the DKC games

well shit

(btw I did not count Super Mario Maker skins)

GANON1025 posted...

Sheesh, you guys really don't like undertale huh

While I don't, the discussion is technically about why other people seem to dislike Undertale.
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K. Rool's also playable in Barrel Blast
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Random factor possibly being underconsidered

How good a character design is the character for Smash

Sans wouldn't really work nearly as easily conceptually as Bomberman. That could be tanking him as well as antivotes and unrecognizability
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Lopen posted...

If you don't use Tumblr Undertale may as well not exist.

This is an extremely ironic thing thing for someone on GameFAQs to say.

Lopen posted...

I'm not saying Marvel 3 is some huge mainstream thing. Just that topping Undertale ain't exactly hard.

But it didn't

It sold half that Undertale did

How is that post of all things the one you call delusional, it's literally just sales numbers

StealThisSheen posted...

Because the way that poll is carried out isn't really anti-voting friendly..

Yeah, it is. I know this because I've taken polls like that personally (on a much smaller scale) and entrants that I voted for positively only like 60% of the time did pretty bad.
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Lopen posted...

Sans wouldn't really work nearly as easily conceptually as Bomberman. That could be tanking him as well as antivotes and unrecognizability

Personal anecdote time - I talked to friends about Smash roster two days ago and they said they while they like Bomberman, they wouldn't want him in Smash because they found it difficult to imagine a moveset for him that wasn't just bomb spam because they thought that would be boring.
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Lopen posted...

Random factor possibly being underconsidered

How good a character design is the character for Smash

Sans wouldn't really work nearly as easily conceptually as Bomberman. That could be tanking him as well as antivotes and unrecognizability

Skull Kid is at the top of the list right now so I don't think how well they work in Smash is being taken into consideration. YES, SHOTS FIRED

I voted for Sans like 10 times today and I dont even know what it looks like. There were a ton of characters there I had to look up because I had no idea who they were though

Also even besides that, Giygas was at like 50 or something so how well they work as a fighter is DEFINITELY not a big factor

I can't believe K Rool is playable in two games that I wasn't aware of

My research was lacking

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah, it is. I know this because I've taken polls like that personally (on a much smaller scale) and entrants that I voted for positively only like 60% of the time did pretty bad.

Not really?

You'd have to make it a concentrated effort. First, you'd have to keep refreshing until Sans showed up. If you voted in other matches, you'd have to keep track of who you're voting for. You'd want to vote for people directly below and above Sans while being careful not to cancel them out.

And I don't even think refreshing actually gets you a new match, so you'd have to close the window.

I've been voting all day off and on during work for fun, and I don't think any character I've always picked has moved up any. There are also characters I didn't even know were in it because I never saw them in a single matchup after probably hundreds of votes.

EDIT: "on a smaller scale" seem to very much be the key words, here.
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You are assuming an extremely elaborate scenario for something I'm calling 'a good chunk of the people voting in that poll will refuse to vote for Sans'.
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KamikazePotato posted...

How is that post of all things the one you call delusional, it's literally just sales numbers

Don't believe I specifically called that delusional. The mindset in general feels that way.

But on that note just comparing sales numbers to sales numbers doesn't tell an accurate story anyway and feels more like someone trying to win an argument. For example I am the only one of my circle of friends that owns Marvel 3. Literally dozens of gamers have exposure to Marvel 3 entirely from that copy.

Also PC gamers probably have the lowest overlap with Smash and that's where the majority of Undertale's sales are from.

I mean yeah Undertal very well could have more presence among gamers than Marvel 3, but I'm not 100% convinced. Nor am I convinced it has more presence than Phoenix Wright series at this point. Both combined? Get outta here.

And keep in mind I agree PW is likely below 70% recognizability on that poll, so even if it beats both combined it's like... by enough?
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KamikazePotato posted...

You are assuming an extremely elaborate scenario for something I'm calling 'a good chunk of the people voting in that poll will refuse to vote for Sans'.

More than "a good chunk" unless people are actually dedicating themselves to it, is the problem, given the amount of characters and votes.
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You have a point on game sharing via multiplayer, but I also forgot that Phoenix Wright wasn't in the original MVC3 which sold way more than Ultimate so...yeah. I don't think Marvel is nearly as popular as you're talking about, and this is coming from someone who played Marvel for two straight years obsessively with a group of friends. Phoenix isn't even a good pick in competitive so he doesn't get the bonus being at EVO and stuff might give.

PW is in no way remotely as big as Undertale. I'm going to keep using sales numbers because I'm getting a bit tired of comparing vague senses of how big certain game demographics are - the entire PW series, worldwide, with all of its numerous ports, has sold 6 million. Undertale has sold 4.3 million. Take out Japan sales and it's probably like 2 million vs. 4 million. Phoenix Wright mostly is known for being a mascot but the series itself isn't big at all. Put Edgeworth in that poll and I wouldn't be surprised if he was where Sans was without guaranteed anti-votes.

With that said your comment about PC not overlapping well with Smash is by far the most persuasive argument I've seen. Undertale is a lot more Nintendo-friendly than most PC games but that's still true.
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StealThisSheen posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

You are assuming an extremely elaborate scenario for something I'm calling 'a good chunk of the people voting in that poll will refuse to vote for Sans'.

More than "a good chunk" unless people are actually dedicating themselves to it, is the problem, given the amount of characters and votes.

I mean I've taken personal polls with the same structure as this one and characters that won like half of their 'matches' placed pretty badly. It's not really as difficult as you're making it out to be and brigading wouldn't be necessary.
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KamikazePotato posted...

StealThisSheen posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

You are assuming an extremely elaborate scenario for something I'm calling 'a good chunk of the people voting in that poll will refuse to vote for Sans'.

More than "a good chunk" unless people are actually dedicating themselves to it, is the problem, given the amount of characters and votes.

I mean I've taken personal polls with the same structure as this one and characters that won like half of their 'matches' placed pretty badly. It's not really as difficult as you're making it out to be and brigading wouldn't be necessary.

With 159 characters and over 241,000 votes, yeah it would.

Like, I'm not doubting your anecdotes, but it sounds like they were much, much smaller polls.

You could take any random character, give them 30 straight wins, and it's not going to change their placement hardly at all. And the chances of seeing any character 30 times in a couple hundred votes is slim.
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I just don't really think sales is a very compelling point in and of itself unless you're at a really high number. Like sales vs time existing is a lot more important point. I've played Apollo Justice and do not own it, for example. I also don't think used games contribute to sales figures? If you throw that out I haven't contributed to any of Phoenix Wright's sales despite owning copies of all of them.
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Total votes =/= percentage of votes. The latter is what matters in this kind of poll.

If you want to see the effect of anti-voting on a much smaller scale, look at what happened to the majority of characters with (Fire Emblem) attached to their name.
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Lopen posted...

I just don't really think sales are a very compelling point in and of themselves unless you're at a really high number.

The numbers are pretty high though, comparatively speaking. Let's take a look at the (estimated) 2 million sales that the Ace Attorney series has in the US. That's divided between six main games. If you assume that every person who played the games bought every game in the series, that's 330k unique players. That's obviously not true though, so I'll pull another number out of my ass and say that the series has...I'm gonna say 800k unique players who have played at least one game in the series? That's significantly less than Undertale's reach. Emulation and used copies are a factor but I don't think they're a big factor in the slightest.
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I think you'd be wrong on that. Particularly with DS games which require less foot in the door investment due to being cheaper used.

I'd say 800k that has existed and been at least somewhat relevant for 17 years is probably more relevant than 4 million that's been out for 3. Keep in mind Steam is a platform that practically encourages you to buy games you never actually play so the sales figures are probably inflated a bit.
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Undertale was the type of game that was rather mass gifted, too, so there's a valid question of how many people received it and never played it
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That's a valid point, but if you're bringing used sales into things then you also have to acknowledge the people that have watched Undertale on youtube and not played it, which is a lot
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Is it really though?
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Why do you guys keep saying Marvel instead of MvC. It's super weirding me out.
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Cause it's Mahvel Baby
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KamikazePotato posted...

That's a valid point, but if you're bringing used sales into things then you also have to acknowledge the people that have watched Undertale on youtube and not played it, which is a lot

To counter somewhat, I've watched streams on Twitch with hundreds and thousands of people watching streamers play the Phoenix Wright series for the first time even today, which I imagine would also add to the numbers in a similar fashion
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naResG2_ZOI" data-time="

This is one dude. The most popular youtube dude, but yeah. 7,588,957 views. There's a bunch more video with millions of views I could post.
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Lopen posted...

Cause it's Mahvel Baby

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StealThisSheen posted...

add to the numbers in a similar fashion

Well, a more drastic fashion probably due to the series being out over 5 times as long
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Waluigi1 posted...

Why do you guys keep saying Marvel instead of MvC. It's super weirding me out.

I don't know anyone who doesn't call it Marvel but I watch a ton of fighting game streams and went to a college with a huge Marvel scene
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also this topic has been thoroughly entertaining and I wanna say everyone has solid points

I anti-vote Sans every time I get him on that site just cuz I am repulsed by the idea that he'd get in over anyone, and that includes Pop Figure Marcus Fenix

I also understand that while there are a lot of people like me out there (bitter assholes), Undertale sold super well and if he were in Smash I think there'd be a good amount of happy people and a lot that would recognize him as "the thing from Undertale" at the very least
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KamikazePotato posted...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naResG2_ZOI" data-time="

This is one dude. The most popular youtube dude, but yeah. 7,588,957 views. There's a bunch more video with millions of views I could post.

To be perfectly fair, I think that's a bit of an iffy example, since how many people just clicked on it because of who it was and didn't actually watch much of it

EDIT: Like, the viewer count dropped to 2 million by the end
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtplRk6BdyA" data-time="

9 million, and a somewhat different demographic than Pewdiepie
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Keep in mind I don't think Sans is super obscure or anything. He probably is being anti-voted a bit.

I just think saying 80% confidently about anything but the most mainstream stuff is silly. Keep in mind like, Sans while important to the story is one of many characters in Undertale too. He's not the main character. I feel like retention rate of people knowing who he is, particularly when comparing watching like youtube videos, is going to be a lot lower than people who know who Phoenix Wright is with only similarly surface exposure to that series.
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It's not even necessarily all about people not knowing or not liking Undertale. Even people that like it can still feel like Undertale doesn't belong in Smash and anti-vote him for that reason.
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