Board 8 > NBA Stats and Discussion - Where Tanking Happens

(+) Yeah! (+)

http://www.kcra.com/article/protesters-block-entrance-to-golden-1-center-call-for-justice-after-deadly-police-shooting/19567843
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If someone blocked my entrance to any sporting event in Toronto I'd be extremely pissed off given the cost of tickets here.

There would definitely be fights going on if it was a Leafs or Raptors game that this happened at.
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reports are that its 'tense' as people are really pissed
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probably boycotting a kings/hawks game
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i hate that you can foul up 3 as a legit strategy, bleh. hack-a-shaq is entertaining, literally preventing teams from taking a 3 sucks. (referring to the jazz/spurs game right now)
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It's boring but practical.
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unfortunately, yeah.

damian lillard just going off on the shorthanded C's.
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what a wonderful game
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this Curry injury sucks. Houston vs. GS was shaping up to be a monster series and now it's tough to say if GS will be 100%. Houston was looking like they were on their level already and there's now a built in excuse.
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also


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Oh man what a deal
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NBA needs to seriously sort out this tanking shit. I should not be annoyed that we won a game but that's exactly how I feel after beating the Suns last night which drops us from 3rd to 5th in lotto odds which is a significant difference.

In 3rd the odds of a Top 3 pick are 46.9% with a virtually equal chance of getting 1, 2 or 3 (15.6-15.7% chance) whereas in 5th the odds of a top 3 pick are only 29.2%

I saw a headline saying that Orlando has a tough stretch ahead - 5 home games against tanking teams! good luck!
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Yep. They said earlier in the week that our stretch of 6 games (including last night) was statistically the weakest stretch anybody in the league had to face.

Suns
Nets
Bulls
@ Hawks
@ Knicks
Mavs

Even the 7th game in that stretch is still a lotto team (Hornets at home)

https://streamable.com/hj4na
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that is incredible
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ShatteredElysium posted...

I know I sound like a broken record but either make the lotto odds all flat so everyone in lotto has an equal chance or make it so it's the inverse of the lotto standings

Why? Why should a better team get better odds? Why should a team like the Clippers, a team that's going to finish above .500, get equal or better odds than a team that is struggling to win 20 games? And more importantly, how do you suggest that 20 win team gets better when you deny them the best way to get better?
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I think a problem I have is getting better and getting good seem like very different animals in the NBA. Theres a transformation an elite player can cause for a team that seems unfair to reward a crappy team over an organization that tried in earnest.
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neonreaper posted...

Theres a transformation an elite player can cause for a team that seems unfair to reward a crappy team over an organization that tried in earnest.

But when you make the new rules and you say everyone tries in earnest, there's still gotta be a worst team in the league. So that still solves nothing.

If you wanna stop tanking, you need:
- Get rid of the lottery system. Teams aren't looking at draft position, they're looking at draft odds. Everyone that is tanking is dreaming of landing the #1 pick. Take that out of the equation and teams will be more focused on draft position, which in turn means they know wins and losses only will move them up and down a few spots, rather than improving their odds to jump 5 spots.
- Tie team performance to revenue sharing.
- Put in performance taxes and penalties. Tie the tax into a percentage of the remaining cap space a team has or how far below the luxury tax they are to force teams to spend on free agents. Ensure that teams get lottery picks no more than three years in a row, and have them be dropped to the end of the first round in the 4th year (it would reset then for another three years).

All this is much better than saying "the fringe playoff team will get the best player in the draft." That just makes the league more imbalanced.
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Honestly out of all the elite teams the only one that really got there through lottery was Cleveland, everyone else got there through trades/free agent pickups/swindling other teams

Even Golden State got Steph/Klay as mid level lottery picks and Draymond as a second rounder
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LiquidOshawott posted...

Honestly out of all the elite teams the only one that really got there through lottery was Cleveland, everyone else got there through trades/free agent pickups/swindling other teams

Even Golden State got Steph/Klay as mid level lottery picks and Draymond as a second rounder

And the Process hasn't won anything, yet everyone's fallen in love with it. It's really a trick that bad GMs are using to trick fans and ownership.
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TheRock1525 posted...

But when you make the new rules and you say everyone tries in earnest, there's still gotta be a worst team in the league. So that still solves nothing.

Not really. Teams can get adequate through free agency and mid level positioning in the draft. Get adequate then you get your shot to become competitive through top draft prospects. If you're absolute trash having a lottery pick isn't the only way to improve your team. This solves tanking and also balances the league. Hell if anything it adds greater balance over the current system, because you have top prospects going to already marginally competitive teams. Instead of having 2-3 top dogs and a huge drop off after that, you're actually more likely to accomplish a highly competitive upper echelon of teams as well.
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LiquidOshawott posted...

Honestly out of all the elite teams the only one that really got there through lottery was Cleveland, everyone else got there through trades/free agent pickups/swindling other teams

Even Golden State got Steph/Klay as mid level lottery picks and Draymond as a second rounder

thunder got durant westbrook and harden. it's a testament to the power of tanking that they're still as good as they are despite their personnel departure

philly is rising to be elite and got there through tanking

lakers could be there as a result of tanking pretty damn soon

the original spurs dynasty was built off two #1 picks
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Citing the Spurs is pretty bad since the Duncan draft was literally a one year tank job. These teams are planning 4-5 years of this shit like the Sixers.

And keep in mind, how successful would the Thunder be if the Grizzlies take Harden instead of Thabeet.

The truth is that tanking is a strategy, not THE strategy, and a lot of teams that are competitive right now improved through incremental change and not "lol let's just suck for 5 years."
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TheRock1525 posted...

The truth is that tanking is a strategy, not THE strategy, and a lot of teams that are competitive right now improved through incremental change and not "lol let's just suck for 5 years."

so there should be no issue with reverse lottery order for teams that missed the playoffs
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TheRock1525 posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

I know I sound like a broken record but either make the lotto odds all flat so everyone in lotto has an equal chance or make it so it's the inverse of the lotto standings

Why? Why should a better team get better odds? Why should a team like the Clippers, a team that's going to finish above .500, get equal or better odds than a team that is struggling to win 20 games? And more importantly, how do you suggest that 20 win team gets better when you deny them the best way to get better?

Because you should never be rewarded for losing. Parity be damned, it's fucking stupid. If you want to get better then do so through coaching, player changes or free agency.

Having a system where you are actively rewarded and encouraged to lose is ridiculous. It makes a complete mockery of the competition. Like how can you have serious competition at least 8 teams (I discounted the Nets who have no reason to lose) are actively trying to lose ? That's over a fucking quarter of the league. How many playoff seedings would be different if those teams were trying to win all the time? I'm pretty sure some seasons it would actually impact who makes the playoffs and who doesn't depending on when you happen to play the tanking teams and how frequently.

If at any point in a sporting event it is more beneficial for your team to not only lose but lose consistently for large stretches of the season (and possibly even years) then the rules are clearly a joke.

As for lotto teams getting better. Most of them are down there not because of draft pick position but because of shitty management. Either through picking badly in the draft, bad trades or completely mismanaging finances.

Would the Magic be better if we had picked higher? Probably. Is that the reason the Magic have consistently been a high lotto picking team? No. It's because the team has been terribly managed. High coaching turnover, bad draft picks, absolutely awful trades (I can't think of 1 positive trade we've made in the last few years), terrible contracts (18m a year to Biyombo says it all) and a tanking culture that makes the team look a lot worse than it is but has probably also fucked over the teams core with a losing mentality.

I'm sure a lot of those apply to most of the bad teams in the NBA.

i'm confused though. your team hasn't even been trying to tank. why should you, as a fan, be punished because your team sucks? the lottery system is supposed to be so you have something to look forward to. the NBA is already rich-get-richer, but the league gets worse if the shittiest teams feel hopeless and don't see a possible golden ticket out.
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The Magic absolutely have been trying to tank. We've been rolling out D-league players whilst holding back our senior players due to minor injuries. And when they do play, they haven't tried at all. We lost by 20 to the 76'ers the other night at home, it should have been 40-50+ (we were down by 35 in the 3rd before both teams pulled all senior players). We've had quite a few quarters where we only score like 12 points recently (never happened early season)

I'd much rather watch my team try their hardest and win 28-32 games in a season than completely throw in the towel for the last 30 games of the year but the rules encourage the latter. Why should I pay to watch D-league talent play and to watch the senior players who do play not even try at all? Why should I cheer for my own team to lose and then be annoyed when we win?

The Magic are a far better team than our record says due to injuries and tanking. Our starting players have missed tons of games (Gordon 23, Vucevic 23, Fournier 16, Isaac 48, Ross, 51) and by the team they got healthy, it was tank mode time. So we should theoretically be a lot better next season. I firmly believe we'd have been in the 35-45 wins range at season end if not for injuries mid-season.

I mean, injuries do happen, though. Celtics have been missing a $30M salary all year and they're currently missing an additional $46M. They always suck.

You're a hardcore fan but being playoff-good is what attracts new/fairweather fans, and that's what the NBA would prefer.

Fair point about tanking, though - didn't realize you were holding out good players. It's more that you never look like you start out the season trying to tank (RIP Grizz/Magic Finals meme). Tanking after a serious injury isn't uncommon, though.
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If they want more parity then they should do something about the salary cap rather than relying on lotto to turn teams around.

When the better teams can attract all the best talent in free agency due to having a better team and then go over the cap to retain their existing talent, it's a lot harder for the lesser teams to turn around their fortunes. The salary cap should be a hard cap so you have to actually choose between retaining your existing players or going after big free agents. You shouldn't be able to double dip and sign the best free agents then renew your own guys to put you way over the cap.

ShatteredElysium posted...

Parity be damned, it's fucking stupid.

No, it's quite the opposite and why a draft even exists. Why even have one if not to help teams that are awful? Let every player come into the league as a free agent and let teams sign them, I'm sure that'll help with parity.
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TheRock1525 posted...

Let every player come into the league as a free agent and let teams sign them, I'm sure that'll help with parity.

I mean they can't all sign with Golden State
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The larger point is that a draft has to exist in order to have any parity to a league, and more importantly it needs to reward teams based on need, not on a completely subjective "well we think you're trying so here's a better pick than the team that you finished 20 games ahead of."
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Yeah, the only viable change to the draft is to switch from a lottery to the order based on record like MLB and NFL.

I do think that the salary cap is a bigger issue. It should either be a hard cap or no cap. Soft cap is garbage. Another solution is to significantly lower the luxury tax threshold and make the punishments for exceeding it more severe, but I don't think that it would improve things enough, and I can't see the players union ever signing off on that.
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How about, if a player spends his entire rookie contract as a non-playoff team, he's allowed to become an unrestricted free agent and is free to sign wherever he'd like. Stuff like Bird Rights still exist but it means you can't just tank for 4 years and retain all your picks thanks to restricted free agency. This also wouldn't apply if he is traded.
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And I largely think tanking is a hipster trend more than anything thanks to people looking at The Process and going "Yeah, I want that!" when in reality, of the 8 tanking teams:

1 will become good.
3 will become mediocre.
4 will still suck.

SE is right in that we have a GM problem, but forcing the hands of GMs by making more anti-tanking changes is just gonna force them to make dumber and dumber decisions when it comes to free agency and trades. You gotta believe in natural selection in the NBA and hope your owner realizes your GM is garbage.
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man, Lebron is ridiculous. I think you could make an MVP case for him over Harden based on his durability this year.
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LeBron should basically win the MVP ever year.
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Since the all star break he's averaging 30.4/10.4/9.8

wew
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yeah, you can definitely consider lebron mvp since you wouldn't rather have any other player for a season than him

davis is probably 2nd in such a ranking
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tough to go against Harden's year. I just want to see him do it in the playoffs once before anointing him.
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SeabassDebeste posted...

davis is probably 2nd in such a ranking

I don't think so
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you'd have harden?
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I don't think a big man is the guy you want more than anything else anymore

Give me any of the major players who run offenses or are capable of running an offense

Davis is the guy everyone feels like they're supposed to say they want
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Lebron loses MVP points for creating a completely toxic environment, destroying his team internally, etc. That will absolutely factor into his legacy as well.
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the only criticism you can make is that he'd make a bad GM. anyone would do poorly if they put Rose, Wade and an injured Thomas on a team in 2018.
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transience posted...

the only criticism you can make is that he'd make a bad GM. anyone would do poorly if they put Rose, Wade and an injured Thomas on a team in 2018.

Not to mention Kevin Love missed significant time.
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transience posted...

the only criticism you can make is that he'd make a bad GM. anyone would do poorly if they put Rose, Wade and an injured Thomas on a team in 2018.

And he is the reason why that team consisted of those players
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They're the way they are because Cleveland, as a whole, has been a horribly run organization for decades.

They just happened to luck into the best player in the world being born in their state.
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