Board 8 > FiveThirtyEight predicts Gingrich to win South Carolina

(+) Yeah! (+)

....Ruh-roh

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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ha ha, South Carolina is terrible

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Bring it on? I'd be happy with a longer primary season.

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Herman Cain

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Prediction:

Mitt Romney 32%
Newt Gingrich 30%
Ron Paul 20%
Rick Santorum 15%
Herman Cain (Stephen Colbert) 3%

I may be underestimating the ability of the Republican voters to fall in line, in which case Santorum gets less and Gingrich could win.

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Stephen Colbert wins South Carolina due to major SFF.

what I want to know is why is Romney winning everything when the entire Republican party seems to hate him

also why is RP doing relatively well in every state despite the conservative media hating him, and does that suggest there's a significant portion of the Republican base that is dissatisfied with the current course the party is on?

Mitt Romney is winning in states like South Carolina because of LFF. If Santorum or Gingrich dropped out now, he'd very likely lose on saturday. In states like New Hampshire, he's simply the most popular candidate.

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what I want to know is why is Romney winning everything when the entire Republican party seems to hate him

Because the leftist media is promoting the idea that he's the only candidate who can win (because they know he's actually the candidate LEAST likely to win).

also why is RP doing relatively well in every state despite the conservative media hating him, and does that suggest there's a significant portion of the Republican base that is dissatisfied with the current course the party is on?

Uh, yeah. Also, SC is an open primary state, so Democrats and Independents can show up the day of the primary and vote for Paul if they'd like.

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The media is favoring him, but he really is the candidate most likely to win against Obama. The media is favoring him because he's the most similar to Obama and the most friendly to big corporations.

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but he really is the candidate most likely to win against Obama

No he isn't. He won't inspire the libertarian wing OR the social conservative wing to come out in numbers. Neither of those sides see him as all that much of an improvement over Obama. Furthermore, despite being obviously the "most moderate" there's no CHANCE he's going to convert any actual committed lefties or Democrats to cross-over.

Romney will lose worse than McCain did, imho.

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From: SmartMuffin | #012
Romney will lose worse than McCain did, imho.

Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul can make a real run at that "milestone" as well. Obama's still a very steely campaigner and will have a much larger warchest than anyone he's up against. He's going to win, and it could be a very easy win once again.

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No he isn't. He won't inspire the libertarian wing OR the social conservative wing to come out in numbers.

Everyone in both of those groups is already voting against Obama anyway, even with Romney. And as a libertarian, I (and probably others) certainly won't be voting for Gingrich or Santorum against Obama.

Furthermore, despite being obviously the "most moderate" there's no CHANCE he's going to convert any actual committed lefties or Democrats to cross-over.

No, but there are a lot of moderates in the country, and they are very unhappy with the economy. This is a huge group that hasn't made up its mind, making it the most important.

And no chance Obama wins as big as he did against McCain. That blowout happened because the election was right in the midst of the economic panic, and a very unpopular war. All Obama had to do was say "Change" and call his opponent "Bush III" and his victory was guaranteed.

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This election is probably going to be similar to 2000 and 2004- close elections where 1 state or a few states make the difference. If Ron Paul wins the nomination, all bets are off though. I could see that general election going anywhere from an Obama landslide to a Paul landslide.

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red sox 777 posted...
This election is probably going to be similar to 2000 and 2004- close elections where 1 state or a few states make the difference. If Ron Paul wins the nomination, all bets are off though. I could see that general election going anywhere from an Obama landslide to a Paul landslide.

Racist elements in Ron Paul Newsletters+Obama being black=gg Paul, even if they weren't written by him. The media will massacre him for them if he's nominated.

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Racist elements in Ron Paul Newsletters+Obama being black=gg Paul, even if they weren't written by him. The media will massacre him for them if he's nominated.

Doubt it. Newt Gingrich's wife just accused him of asking for an open marriage, and it doesn't seem to have hurt him too much. Those newsletters will hurt Ron Paul as much as Jeremiah Wright's sermons hurt Obama.

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red sox 777 posted...
Racist elements in Ron Paul Newsletters+Obama being black=gg Paul, even if they weren't written by him. The media will massacre him for them if he's nominated.

Doubt it. Newt Gingrich's wife just accused him of asking for an open marriage, and it doesn't seem to have hurt him too much. Those newsletters will hurt Ron Paul as much as Jeremiah Wright's sermons hurt Obama.

The problem is that Paul will be cast as a racist against a black candidate. It won't end well.

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ooo a south carolina topic

these are rare!

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There's little need to go after Ron Paul's character when his positions will be more than enough to dissuade people. His stance on foreign policy already scares some (or many), and with his push for a much smaller government and much less government spending, he can easily be painted as the most anti-middle class candidate the Republicans could have fielded. Fair or not, true or not, it'll still resonate with people and still spell insta-death.

Romney is an out of touch, mega rich piece of wood who can't get anyone excited.

Santorum is crazy.

Gingrich is a fat slimeball.

Any potential candidate comes with tons of baggage very easy for Obama to exploit. Obama has stockpiled some nice talking points to propel him through this campaign (largely on the foreign policy side of things, unexpectedly enough), and he has the intrinsic advantage of being the more appealing man to vote for. He's young, good looking, not crazy, and a devoted father and husband. People eat that **** up whether they realize it or not.

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you'd really have to stretch it to say RP is anti-middle class. everything we know about him suggests he'd be the best by far for them. maybe he'd be bad for poor people, though.

Everyone in both of those groups is already voting against Obama anyway, even with Romney. And as a libertarian, I (and probably others) certainly won't be voting for Gingrich or Santorum against Obama.

If you were really a libertarian, you'd admit that the difference between Obama, Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum is essentially nothing. Statistically insignificant, if you will.

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From: Viviff | Posted: 1/19/2012 10:14:47 PM | #005
Herman Cain

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If you were really a libertarian, you'd admit that the difference between Obama, Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum is essentially nothing. Statistically insignificant, if you will.

On economic issues, yes. On social issues, Obama and Romney are a bit better. But the reason I'd vote for Obama/Romney over Gingrich/Santorum is not their positions or beliefs on the issues, but their competence to be our country's leader. Obama and Romney are very smart people, I'm not convinced that Gingrich and Santorum are.

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Moderates siding with Romney is extremely unlikely. Democrats have won moderates in every single presidential election since 1988. Yes, even card carrying leftie ACLU member Dukakis won Moderates. Any advantage that Republicans have is an ideological one. Democrats have better messaging and their numbers amongst Moderates show that.

Romney has the best chance at being Obama but that says more about the candidates than him. The national zeitgeist (regardless of whether or not conservatives want to admit it) is one railing against the wealthy elites who play with rigged dice and work in a different system. Romney is a perfect example of this kind of person, and it will definitely hurt his messaging in the long term.

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PartOfYourWorld posted...
Any potential candidate comes with tons of baggage very easy for Obama to exploit. Obama has stockpiled some nice talking points to propel him through this campaign (largely on the foreign policy side of things, unexpectedly enough)

Ironically, foreign policy is where he's completely flip-flopped from his campaign promises (and why I'm not excited about the prospect of voting for him again; he's still better than the GOP candidates though).

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Well, that's because people on the left call themselves moderates because they don't want to call themselves liberal. It's a moot point in any case; Romney doesn't have to outright win moderates, just win more of them than, say, Bush did against Gore.

Romney is a great example of the Wall Street elite (to be better, he'd need to have worked for a firm actually based on Wall Street/Lower Manhattan). But the thing is......so is Obama. They're both multimillionaire Harvard Law grads who received loads of campaign contributions from big banks and favor policies that help big banks a lot. Where's the difference?

You can say that Romney will have an image problem with this more, but remember that Republicans have done a very good job of painting Democrats as "liberal elites" over the years. This one will hurt Romney, but it doesn't kill his chances. He just has to make the campaign about Obama, not himself. And Obama will be trying to make the debate about the Republican candidate, too. Unless Ron Paul wins, of course, because Ron Paul is the only candidate people actually like, as opposed to considering the lesser evil.

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Romney doesn't have to outright win moderates, just win more of them than, say, Bush did against Gore.

And what makes you think he would?

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Clearly no one actually has a chance to beat Obama, this is all really just about the next election, but so much can change in 4 years.

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Because he's smarter and more competent than Santorum or Gingrich, and this is clear to a large part of the electorate, especially moderates. I don't know if he'd do better than Bush against Gore (I chose those two because that election was a statistical tie, so if he does better, he wins; if not, he loses). Obama has a decent chance of winning of course.

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From: LordoftheMorons | #028
Ironically, foreign policy is where he's completely flip-flopped from his campaign promises

Has he? IIRC, during the 2008 campaign, he stumped for ending the war in Iraq and shifting the focus to Afghanistan. It took three years, but all major troop forces are out of Iraq, and the death of Bin Laden is, if nothing else, hugely symbolic and evidence toward his claim of doing work in Afghanistan.

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It's possible that flip-flopped was a poor choice of words, but he's deviated quite a bit from the philosophy he seemed to have in that regard. I'm thinking about things like not shutting down Guantanamo, the drone strikes, the NDAA, etc. Those are all things that make me very uneasy.

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It took three years

This. It took 3.5 years for us to win World War II. It took the British like 34 minutes or something to win their war with Zanzibar. Obama promised a much shorter timespan than 3 years in his campaign.

Also, Guantanamo Bay still is not closed, and there are no signs that it is going to be closed anytime soon or ever.

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From: red sox 777 | #032
Because he's smarter and more competent than Santorum or Gingrich, and this is clear to a large part of the electorate, especially moderates. I don't know if he'd do better than Bush against Gore (I chose those two because that election was a statistical tie, so if he does better, he wins; if not, he loses). Obama has a decent chance of winning of course.

I don't think that's true at all. Gingrich is probably the smartest man IN American politics right now. Dude just can't keep it in his pants.

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Well, there's competence in addition to intelligence, and Gingrich doesn't feel like a candidate who can get a broad base of support in the general election on that. He's also twice divorced and converted from Protestantism to Catholicism. Worst of all, people really want an outsider to Washington. That's been the thing voters have wanted ever since Reagan, and Gingrich is the consummate Washington insider. When he says he's been working in Washington since 1978, that just makes people want to bail.

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Worst of all, people really want an outsider to Washington.

People keep saying this, but recent results seem to indicate otherwise. At least on the Republican side. I guess you could claim Obama was an outsider, but it's not like he beat Hilary by all that much...

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Gingrich is mentally handicapped

Reagan = Governor of California
Bush = VP of the most popular president in decades
Clinton = Governor of Arkansas
Bush = Governor of Texas, definitely appeared to be an outsider despite his elite family connections
Obama = Gave the appearance of being an outsider

I'd say all of those except Bush 41 came off as being from outside the establishment.

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Gingrich's problem is that he is "kind of a dick"

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SmartMuffin posted...
Gingrich is probably the smartest man IN American politics right now.

I haven't had that impression at all. What makes you say that?

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metroid composite posted...
SmartMuffin posted...
Gingrich is probably the smartest man IN American politics right now.

I haven't had that impression at all. What makes you say that?

Well in spite of being one of the most obvious slime balls in American politics he's somehow managed to get people to actually take him seriously as a candidate. I guess that speaks to a form of low cunning at least.

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The stupidest thing about this is Romney not releasing his taxes.

I was saying beforehand how the smart move would be to bring them along, release them mid debate. Then everybody has misprepped, he neutralizes the issue, big win.

Well... at least GINGRICH listened to me.

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Yeah, the tax issue will haunt Rummy. Whether we as Americans like to admit it or not, the average person does have it out (at least a smidgen) for a mega rich guy, especially if he earned his wealth in corporate America, and especially if he pays a lower tax rate. Romney is all three - he absolutely has a lower tax rate than a working family who get their incomes reported on W-2 and 1099 forms. I wouldn't be at all surprised if his average tax rate is close to zero.

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I cannot believe that Newt ****ing Gingrich actually is a viable candidate and not a fourth tier joke

lol GOP, see you in 4 years

nobody they have is going to survive a general election with obama. sorry.

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SlymDayspring posted...
I cannot believe that Newt ****ing Gingrich actually is a viable candidate and not a fourth tier joke

Yes, well, the list of candidates is so weak that Ron Paul is managing to be a serious contender.

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...what.
*checks*

oh dear god i laughed to tears. newt won SC?
there are few dumber candidate choices available. dude's the biggest ass and douche in the election.

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Yes, well, the list of candidates is so weak that Ron Paul is managing to be a serious contender.

very true.

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