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TopicFiveThirtyEight predicts Gingrich to win South Carolina
red sox 777
01/19/12 8:35:00 PM
#14:


No he isn't. He won't inspire the libertarian wing OR the social conservative wing to come out in numbers.

Everyone in both of those groups is already voting against Obama anyway, even with Romney. And as a libertarian, I (and probably others) certainly won't be voting for Gingrich or Santorum against Obama.

Furthermore, despite being obviously the "most moderate" there's no CHANCE he's going to convert any actual committed lefties or Democrats to cross-over.

No, but there are a lot of moderates in the country, and they are very unhappy with the economy. This is a huge group that hasn't made up its mind, making it the most important.

And no chance Obama wins as big as he did against McCain. That blowout happened because the election was right in the midst of the economic panic, and a very unpopular war. All Obama had to do was say "Change" and call his opponent "Bush III" and his victory was guaranteed.

--
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
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