Board 8 > transience analyzes the contest bracket

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From: transience | #050
Mario vs. Bowser
Link vs. Ganondorf

Hey, 2002. Mario gets a boost due to his iconic history but still can't touch Link. Shame this isn't Sonic.

Do you really want to see a 20/80 final match?

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Went Ryu over Samus, but same everywhere else!

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technically Mega Man X's name is really just "X" though I won't be surprised if it does show up as "Mega Man X" on poll day

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FINALLY. Too bad Sonic is shackled by Robotnik. If this were Sonic/Knuckles vs. Mario/Bowser it might be a fair fight. I could see Sonic beating Mario just because of THE RIVALRY -- how sad is it Mario and Sonic finally meet after 9 years in a tag team contest -- but the likeliest scenario is Mario pounding Sonic into the ground, especially after all the perceived duds over the last ten years.

You seriously think Knuckles would let Sonic beat (or even come close to) Mario? Knuckles wasn't even in the two most played Sonic games! And even if he were, nothing would let Sonic beat Mario besides us all time-travelling back 15-18 years.

I'm not really feeling the Alucard hype. What's he done recently? SotN is 14 years old and I don't think it's really thought of as well as it once was, though I could be wrong there. Granted, that's a terrible division so I could see them taking it (as well as at least four other pairings).

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I dunno, you could say the same about Frog and Magus.

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My gut instincts, that differ from tranny:

* Conker will beat Ike, because it's the Great Mighty Poo! Joke factor ftw. Still loses to Mario.
* Not being an AC type, I take DK over Ezio. Still loses to MK ninjas.
* MK ninjas over X and Zero, although like Tranny, I admit that this could be horribly wrong.
* Cecil over Pokemon Red, maybe. Still loses in R3.
* Tidus/Jecht over The Bosses, imo. Still wins round 2, loses round 3.
* I'm giving a ghost of a chance for SMB/Fetus to oust Zidane/Kuja.
* We agree on southwest, of all divisions. What are the odds?
* Ramza over Siegfried
* B.J./Adolf over Sora and subsequently Vergil. Squall stops them before momentum can truly garner.
* Final 8: Mario > Sub-Zero, Ryu > Samus, Link > Frog, Cloud > Squall; Mario > Ryu, Cloud > Link; Cloud > Mario



I went with Red because does anyone think the match pic for them WONT include Charizard and Blastoise?

....crap. Treating this as a surrogate Charizard/Blastoise match, this could very nearly take the tournament.

Sonic/Knuckles is stronger than Sonic/Robotnik. that's all.

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one less bracket

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transience posted...
I haven't read a single topic and don't plan to until I finish this. it won't take long anyway.

(1) Mario vs. Bowser
(8) Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt

(4) Conker vs. Great Mighty Poo
(5) Ike vs. Black Knight


Mario vs. Bowser -- expected, but oh well. 'slug-for-a-butt' is probably stronger than Earthworm Jim. I'm not joking.

Ike beats Conker because one is Nintendo and one is not. Also, one is in Smash and one is not. This could be close but whatever. Mario smashes either one.


(3) Kirby vs. Meta Knight
(6) Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis

(2) Sonic vs. Dr. Robotnik
(7) Katherine vs. Catherine

2002 rematch! Kirby/Jill is a close match in my mind, closer than it probably should be. I just see the Resident Evil pairing being better rivalry material than a couple of puffballs. That said, Kirby's probably more relevant today than Jill is despite her MVC3-ness.

Sonic gets stuck with Robotnik, leaving Knuckles out of the contest. Lame. I'm glad the Catherines made it but yeah. Sonic/Kirby rematch could be good -- we've seen Kirby upend him before -- but I think Sonic's iconic-ness helps him out here in a big way. Hopefully Sonic generations doesn't suck and actually helps him here.

(1) Mario vs. Bowser
(2) Sonic vs. Dr. Robotnik

FINALLY. Too bad Sonic is shackled by Robotnik. If this were Sonic/Knuckles vs. Mario/Bowser it might be a fair fight. I could see Sonic beating Mario just because of THE RIVALRY -- how sad is it Mario and Sonic finally meet after 9 years in a tag team contest -- but the likeliest scenario is Mario pounding Sonic into the ground, especially after all the perceived duds over the last ten years.

Gotta disagree. Kirby-Sonic III should go in favor of the pink one, for exactly the reasons you say that Sonic-Mario would end up being a blowout. We've already seen Kirby beat Sonic in an lol4way, and although Sonic evened the score in 1v1s, it was close enough that I think Meta Knight's advantage over Robotnik might be able to turn the tide. Also, Kirby's got two new games. Dude's probably more relevant than he's ever been.

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Kirby might have 2 new games, but look at the hype for them

I don't think anyone on B8 even bought Mass Attack, and Return to Dream Land is getting absolutely 0 attention from anybody and it's just 2 weeks away. It's like nobody cares.

Meanwhile look at all the hype Sonic Generations has been getting.

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transience posted...
(1) X vs. Zero
(8) Captain Falcon vs. Shadow

(4) Guybrush vs. LeChuck
(5) Bartz vs. Gilgamesh

X and not Mega Man X, huh? Interesting. Guybrush and LeChuck vs. Bartz and Gilgamesh -- this is what we're reduced to in this contest! This seems like an easy pick -- Final Fantasy vs. Guybrush Threepwood -- but I could see the Monkey Island duo pulling off some magic. X and Zero slam the competition.

(3) Donkey Kong vs. King K. Rool
(6) Ezio vs. Rodrigo

(2) Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion
(7) Leon vs. Ada Wong

DK vs. Ezio -- if DK didn't have a choker's rep I'd probably back him, but Ezio is probably on DK's level at this point. Too bad Revelations won't be out until a week after this match. Anyway, going against Nintendo strikes me as a Bad Idea but DK vs. King K Rool isn't the iconic kind of rivalry I think of when I think of Nintendo. I'll take Ezio's personal tale over that.

Sub/Scorp vs. Leon/Ada is a huge match. Leon probably beats Sub-Zero but I think the MK duo are just a bit more iconic. The winner takes the fourpack.

(1) X vs. Zero
(2) Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion

I am heavily, heavily considering taking Sub and Scorpion. They just strike me as being more iconic. X and Zero aren't bad in this department though and they're stronger from a pure strength perspective. Eh, I'll probably stick with the Mega Men.

Yeah, I'd take X/Zero against Sub-Zero/Scorpion, too...but my pick for this bracket's winner is Leon Kennedy and Ada Wong, in a very close one.

One question, though: since when has "iconic" ever mattered? Yeah, you could say that Mario and Link and the like are "iconic", but they also keep getting new games. Even Cloud and Sephiroth have that benefit thanks to Dissidia and the Kingdom Hearts series. There's a reason that Sonic, the original Mega Man, and Crono are the weak links in the Noble Nine--one hasn't had a critically acclaimed game in years, one hasn't had a game that was actually sold in stores in probably close to two decades, and one hasn't had a single new game since 1995. "Iconic" is only useful if you keep reestablishing it.

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transience posted...
(1) Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Blue
(8) Raynor vs. Kerrigan

(4) Luigi vs. Waluigi
(5) Cecil vs. Golbez

Pokemon vs. Starcraft. Maybe in 2004 we would have a different result.

Hahahaha Luigi vs. Waluigi. Don't people antivote this on principle? Luigi is the obvious safe pick but I'm going with the one that isn't being dragged down by a damn anchor. Plus Cecil vs. Golbez is one of the best rivalries in the contest.

(3) Ryu vs. Ken
(6) Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious

(2) Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O'Donnell
(7) Yuna vs. Seymour

Fox vs. Yuna is a tossup - Seymour and Wolf are both pretty meh and Fox/Yuna are kinda close in strength. Yuna/Seymour aren't really rivals but I do think she's stronger than Fox. I don't have a lot of respect for Fox after some of his performances -- plus Smash ain't what it used to be.

(1) Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Blue
(3) Ryu vs. Ken

Yeah, I don't have much respect for human Pokemon characters. I'm really ignorant of the Red/Blue rivalry but I do know that Ryu/Ken is one of the five most classic rivalries in this contest. I'll take them. No way do I ever take Red over Ryu, at the very least.

Couldn't be more wrong here. I'd probably take Fox over Yuna, but that would be a toss-up. The Fox-Wolf rivalry, though, is one of the better ones, so I figure Fox could very well get a "contest boost". At the very least, though, you've made me reconsider my pick for Red/Blue vs. Fox/Wolf.

And yeah, Waluigi is definitely a big anchor, but FFIV is 1-6 in contest battles overall, and 0-5 in character battles (the game itself made Round 2 in 2009). I think Luigi alone could carry that pair to the second round.

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It's a shame we don't have Mario/Sonic in this contest. They were the only ones that had a shot at Link.

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transience posted...
(1) Phoenix Wright vs. Edgeworth
(8) Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen

(4) Alucard vs. Dracula
(5) Shepard vs. Saren

Phoenix Wright is a 1 seed. Miles Edgeworth is a 1 seed.

I'll back 'em over Gordon even if I shouldn't. Alucard/Shepard is a pretty good match -- I think Shepard would beat Alucard these days -- but this is ME1 and not ME2 and Alucard/Dracula has classic written all over it.

(3) Chell vs. GlaDOS
(6) Ness vs. Giygas

(2) Frog vs. Magus
(7) Raiden vs. Vamp

Chell and Glados are so hard to peg. With a good picture, they probably beat the Earthbound dudes. With a bad one, they're toast. Ness is the safe pick but I'll back the Portalers, especially after Portal 2. Frog and Magus are a much better rivalry than Raiden and Vamp and that's that.

(4) Alucard vs. Dracula
(2) Frog vs. Magus

Strongly considering Dracula to take this division. I guess I should support Chrono Trigger here but.. man, I don't know. 50/50 for me right here. I know everyone else takes Frog easily, right?

No comments on your previous two divisions because you and I agree completely about them. Not too far off on this one, either; I've got all four first-round matches the same as your picks, but I've got Alucard/Dracula over Chell/GLaDOS for the division final. Again, Board 8 loves its classic games, but Chrono Trigger cannot pull off any of the magic that it had in the early contests. It just can't. The game came out 16 years ago, and while it's been remade a couple of times, most recently for the DS, it's still an old game, and perhaps more importantly, it's a single game rather than a successful franchise. (Yes, I know there were sequels, but the main characters from the original weren't in them. If you aren't Final Fantasy, you really can't get away with this for character battle purposes.)

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transience posted...
(1) Squall vs. Seifer
(8) Laharl vs. Mid-Boss

(4) Siegfried vs. Nightmare
(5) Ramza vs. Delita

Ramza feels like the right pick but I dunno, he's so dated at this point. I'll go with the SC guys. Squall is miles stronger than the rest.

(3) Dante vs. Vergil
(6) Sol Badguy vs. Ky Kiske

(2) Sora vs. Riku
(7) B.J. Blazkowicz vs. Adolf

ADOLF. Dante vs. Sora is a close match but I refuse to back Dante in a debatable match ever again. He's screwed me over too many times.

(1) Squall vs. Seifer
(2) Sora vs. Riku

These guys get matched up too much. Sora/Riku feels like a better rivalry than the FF8 dweebs, but I can't see KH beating a main FF duo. I think taking Sora, Dante or Squall to take the division are all fair picks.

I dunno, Adolf could get the joke factor going, and the winner of that 2-7 match definitely beats the winner of the 3-6. Squall and Seifer still have this, though.

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transience posted...
Mario vs. Bowser
X vs. Zero

Samus vs. Ridley
Ryu vs. Ken

I kinda wanted to go with Ryu over Samus but I can't pull the trigger. I'm not HM. Mario/Samus mark III or IV, great. I can't wait.

Link vs. Ganondorf
Alucard vs. Dracula

Cloud vs. Sephiroth
Squall vs. Seifer

See, I still have Alucard in my bracket. FF7/FF8 will be a slaughterfest yet again and Link/Ganon crushes the other division. It's incredible that so many so-so pairings make it to the final 8. I think Cloud/Seph has a great shot at Link/Ganon but Skyward Sword and Link game over etc etc. It's the safe pick, anyway.

Mario vs. Bowser
Link vs. Ganondorf

Hey, 2002. Mario gets a boost due to his iconic history but still can't touch Link. Shame this isn't Sonic.

Nah, I think that the Clinkeroth duel will go the other way, the combined might of Cloud and Sephiroth being enough to topple Link and Ganondorf. And of course, this could be where we finally see that "Samus > Mario" theory play out in an actual match. So while I agree on the four semifinalists, I've got Cloud/Sephiroth > Samus/Ridley for the finals.

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Am I the only one who has confidence in Sheppard to beat Alucard?

I might as well mention that I also have him in the Elite Eight, before losing to Link and Ganondorf.

And I highly doubt GameFAQs would let SQUARE, of all things, beat Nintendo. Remember, SQAURE ALWAYS WINS!

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DK > MMX aww yeah

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joke factor too weak.

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From: transience | #047
Sora/Riku feels like a better rivalry than the FF8 dweebs

what!

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Also, this contest is boring.

At least on first glance. We'll see.

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Taggin' dis.

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Kirby's probably more relevant today than Jill is despite her MVC3-ness

Jill isn't even relevant in MvC3 because everything she does there, Wolverine does much better and MvC3 Wolverine is top-tier lolololololoz.

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I've been thinking and I think the Frog/Alucard/Shepard division is the toughest. Alucard/Dracula could walk to the top 8 or it could lose in round 1. Frog could choke against Raiden and Vamp or it could make it through without trouble like it would have five years ago. Shepard is by far the most popular thing at the moment but GameFAQs likes its dated icons. All of those could make top 8. All of those could lose in round 1.

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xyzzy

Ramza feels like the right pick but I dunno,

He lost to a freggin Gnoll

You dont recover off that.

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Yeah, the Phoenix/Alucard/etc. division is FASCINATING in my opinion. Every single round 1 matchup is absolutely debatable, as well as the round 3 matchup, and even the round 2 matchups are hard just because it's hard to guess who's competing in them.

Phoenix/Edgeworth vs. Freeman/Breen is one hell of a match to figure out. I feel like the strength of Phoenix and Edgeworth being paired together could matter, but it might really only matter to people who actually give a s*** about Ace Attorney, which is a dependable but small fanbase. I think Phoenix may have gotten stronger since the time Gordon Freeman beat him easily, but the numbers in that match are pretty telling. I'm taking Phoenix/Edgeworth because it feels wrong to bet against the 1 seed but that was the same logic that had me take Halo over Starcraft. I don't feel good about this at all.

I think Alucard/Dracula over Shepard/Saren is actually a pretty easy choice because I just don't see Mass Effect really having character power here, but I may be completely underestimating peoples' ability to recognize Shepard. Ultimately I have Alucard/Dracula going onto win the division though.

Chell/GlaDOS is a total wildcard. GlaDOS is always a bit of a wildcard, but if I recall correctly she's proven worthwhile in contests lately so I feel like this is safe over Ness/Giygas, but picking against Nintendo is just about never a lock.

Okay maybe I overstated "every" round 1 match being debatable because Raiden/Vamp's going to lose but they're not fodder I guess.

But then there's the Alucard/Dracula vs. Frog/Magus matchup that probably winds up happening and that is a total tossup in my opinion. I can't figure out what the hell is going to happen there.

I would take Shepard over Alucard, but I don't know that Saren is on the same level as Dracula. I think Dracula tips the scales in that match in favor of Alucard.

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Last contest Shepard got 39% on Pikachu and Alucard got 28% on Link. Seems like they're close to me. Comes down to "rivalry factor" I would suspect... and Dracula's bringing more of that than Saren is, especially in the context of ME2. Shepard gains a little from a day match too, but probably not enough.

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I like Phoenix/Edgeworth to win because it's a 12-hour night match, which is exactly what PW needs to succeed in this format. Plus, Breen being pitifully weak like Alyx Vance could help (He should be the weakest entity in this match, not Edgeworth), and it's not like Freeman beat the mess out of Phoenix when they faced off in 2006. Plus, people don't seem to think a lot of Freeman/Breen as a rivalry. It barely outdid Raynor/Kerrigan in the vote-ins.

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I have Shep/Saren getting out of the division over GLaDOS/Chell.

Really, it feels to me that Alucard is being greatly overestimated. Castlevania has nowhere to really go but down, with its last really "great" showing being in the series' contest. I don't give Magus the time of day anymore (which, incidentally, helped me with the bottom half's decisions), so for me, Alucard's performance on Magus in 2010 was just kind of standard, flirting with a low-midcard range. Shepard proved himself to be pretty damn legit last contest, Mass Effect 2 outright beat a universally beloved Mario game in Galaxy 2 in GotY despite being a 360/PC exclusive at the time, and Shepard's got a shiny PS3 port of ME2 to help him out, with enough background information given on Saren in that port to establish 'oh he's a pretty bad guy and Shep is kinda cool kicking his teeth in and stuff'. Dracula strengthens things, yes, but I'd feel confident taking the Mass Effect series over the Castlevania series.

As for Chell/GLaDOS... well, I want to argue that they aren't really niche anymore. Portal, for all it did incredibly well, was essentially a PC-exclusive unless you bought The Orange Box on 360 or PS3 for who-knows-what reason. Portal 2, on the other hand, got a massive amount of exposure in ads and whatnot. Sure, those mostly focused on Atlas and P-Body, but it exposed a lot to the series and that GLaDOS is funny as Hell and 'oh it's those chicks from Portal' is something that can actually be said now. Magus and Frog have aged terribly, and all Portal 2 has to do is boost the two just a bit. Plus, I don't think Chell being basically a non-factor in her game is going to matter if the Portal Gun is prominently displayed in her pic; then it's just "oh, it's that chick who has the Portal Gun, cool'.

Just two cents there.

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How many points did Black Turtle win the guru by? Wow that's a lot, a lot!

series contest is kind of the equivalent of this contest though. I kind of expect the long-running rivalries to do well, just like the long-running series' helped Castlevania and Mega Man.

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xyzzy

I feel the same, but I feel that Mass Effect is more on the level of, say, Kingdom Hearts than Halo/DMC.

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How many points did Black Turtle win the guru by? Wow that's a lot, a lot!