Board 8 > Coronavirus topic 7: Biohazard

(+) Yeah! (+)

As if the title of this topic could be anything else

Stopped following lately
BNO Newsroom turned to shit and unintersting to follow anymore, it seems like they don't post anything that isn't out of the ordinary
And besides a new outbreak in Japan it's look like the world "is going is usual" but with less corona cases everyday

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Stay in your Residence, evils.

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We already know it starts in Finland.

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Anyone have an idea for masks? I made one but I struggle to breathe through it some / gets too hot and I expell my breath upwards which fogs my glasses constantly.

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i'm gonna use a sock.
if that fails a hat.

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Corrik7 posted...

Anyone have an idea for masks? I made one but I struggle to breathe through it some / gets too hot and I expell my breath upwards which fogs my glasses constantly.

I read one article from Twitter that someone shared an link that if you use a tissue inside the mask while folding in one way, it stops the fog getting on your glasses. I hadn't tried it as personally I don't want to wear a mask unless officially if it is really a law or something I may try it.

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Thesuperstar2k posted...

I read one article from Twitter that someone shared an link that if you use a tissue inside the mask while folding in one way, it stops the fog getting on your glasses. I hadn't tried it as personally I don't want to wear a mask unless officially if it is really a law or something I may try it.

Our state requires masks for employees starting Sunday at 8pm... And can be denied entry into stores and such if not wearing masks (as long as provided a curbside option).

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yenz_BJC1ME
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Corrik7 posted...

Our state requires masks for employees starting Sunday at 8pm... And can be denied entry into stores and such if not wearing masks (as long as provided a curbside option).

That would make a lot of sense if this is enforced on my state. So far in Ohio for me depending on what I seen by the news, it isn't enforce law which it's voluntary, but so far I see some people wearing one some don't. Would only wear mask if I involve in public transportation in this case right now.

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So we have a Dutch study that now says about 3% of the population has antibodies based on tests during blood donation. I'll take a look at the specifics of the study, but this is nice because it gives us an idea of what we're looking at overall. I can do some back of the envelope math.
3315 deaths, and 3% of the total population = (.03)(17280000) = 518400
3315/518400 = 0.64%, there's an estimate of the true fatality rate. Which is about what several studies have been saying. Since this thing probably WILL blow through everyone until it hits the 82% of the population needed for herd protection, we can get a rough death toll estimate assuming we're able to keep things under control as they are now, at least for the netherlands:
(17280000)(.82)(.0064) = 90,685
I'd be wary of using these numbers for other countries but there's a ballpark number.

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Corrik7 posted...

Anyone have an idea for masks? I made one but I struggle to breathe through it some / gets too hot and I expell my breath upwards which fogs my glasses constantly.

Some of these potentially lower infection fatality rates are interesting especially when you compare them with the IFR reported in smaller, complete population sizes like February's Diamond Princess fiasco. Everyone aboard was tested and there were 712 cases with the 13th death happening April 9. That gives an IFR of 1.82%.

A particular note with the demographics on the Diamond Princess is that average age of passengers was much higher than the general population, being something like 69. The crew's average age was 36. Older people going on cruises are generally going to be healthier than your average person that age, but that likely doesn't change much since they'll still likely have a comorbidity or two by that point. It also seems to be enough of a difference that, considering how steeply mortality escalates with age, may agree with the Dutch figure.

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Hey I just want to say early in this thread that any theories about the Wuhan CDC selling viral-infected meat to the market is likely bogus

Perhaps quit trying to blame this on someone and just work on dealing with it, thanks.

(directed to no one in this thread in particular, just as a Chinese-American I'm getting really sick of people saying Chinese people as a rule don't wash hands and eat bats)

I definitely have nothing against anything in China but the government that permits such things as they do.
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One thing I have realized from some of these idiots that get on TV to complain about not being in a high risk group for this virus...People have no idea that obesity is an underlying condition.

Every time they interview a fat person about how they want to go back to work and put other people at risk I am reminded how fucking ignorant people are.

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Yeah, basically. Obesity itself causes systemic inflammation, causing elevation of interleukins. The interleukin IL-6 in particular is implicated in cytokine storm which is a large factor in many patients' eventual death from COVID-19.

It's also potentially the factor that precipitates hypertension and T2 diabetes in the first place.

That said, the demographic breakdown of patients in intensive care by BMI doesn't skew very much from the general population's percentage of the number of overweight and obese people. But it does factor, as mentioned here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html

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Corrik7 posted...

Anyone have an idea for masks? I made one but I struggle to breathe through it some / gets too hot and I expell my breath upwards which fogs my glasses constantly.

https://tinyurl.com/se6eanv

There are quite a number of similar instructionals/videos along these lines.

I've also found this link which compares different potential mask materials and rates them along metrics like virus stopping potential and breathability.

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/

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Tag.

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People looking at me like I am a fucking moron at work cuz I have a mask on lol. Jokes on them at 8pm Sunday

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China lying again but they're trying to lie less.
they're saying they were off on deaths in Wuhan by 50%.

cool, so now it's... 3869 officially there.
i mean it's still way off considering the initial numbers are estimated to being 15 to 42 times higher but no surprise here.

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Corrik7 posted...

People looking at me like I am a fucking moron at work cuz I have a mask on lol. Jokes on them at 8pm Sunday

What happens at 8pm Sunday

gamer man posted...

What happens at 8pm Sunday

All masks order.

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Corrik7 posted...

All masks order.

Eh.. good luck enforcing that.
It's against my religion - can I use that to avoid wearing one?

gamer man posted...

Eh.. good luck enforcing that.
It's against my religion - can I use that to avoid wearing one?

Sure. If your religion is against it, you could stay at home and not work and be accommodated with curbside assistance from stores that will refuse your entry.

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I...sneezed and there were specks of blood.
I really hope it's just, like, uhh...shallow wound?
The thing is I don't feel pain at all, internal nor external.


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Sneezing with specks of blood is pretty darn normal

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This is the first time in my life!
Though yeah I Googled around and seems like it'll be fine unless I start coughing blood as well.

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It's also completely unrelated to Corona if that's something you were concerned with. It isn't known to cause sneezing, that's firmly in tbe allergy camp.

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There's an article saying that 1% cases have coughing blood as a symptom, but since I'm not feverish nor out of breath, I'm not terribly concerned for now.

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I can also confirm that sneezing specks of blood is something that happens to me a bunch while I'm sneezing from allergies.

Thankfully it never gives me full nosebleeds or anything

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Can someone please explain to me all those reopening talks

I mean...what changed? why would it be different now than it was before? there is still no cure. There are still active cases that can spread it again
Just because people now might be more cautius doesn't mean it can't spread
And if using gloves and masks was enough in the first place...why even close everything instead of just force everyone to wear masks?

I don't understand
We are just asking for another outbreak

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the corporate overlords would rather trade lives so they can start making money again

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1251186179548033025?s=21

Wang youre plugged in to Chinese disinformation, do we think these guesses are accurate?
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Where am I supposed to find a flipping mask if everywhere is out ugh

Jakyl25 posted...

Wang youre plugged in to Chinese disinformation, do we think these guesses are accurate

Yes. Actually they might even be considerably low still.

I was one of the few that claimed that I don't believe China was faking numbers
I am willing to admit I was wrong
I based my logic around the death rate of cruise ship and it made perfect sense

But then other countries started to have outbreak and to have a higher number of casualties than China..makes no sense, unless China lied
So yeah, I was wrong, they iied and they keep lying

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that's what i was laughing at this morning. Trump is correct, though quite bold to just say that. wonder what updated info exists. gonna break it down in 2 sections, China's claim and evidence we're aware of.

China's claim:
China was claiming about 3100 people total yesterday, saying about 2/3 of those were from Wuhan. by now i think everyone agrees this isn't just a lie but it's a drastically underplayed lie. China's saying Wuhan was 50% higher on deaths and about 3800, though as a whole the country still has <5000.

Known evidence:
Trump is likely using the info the UK is. i don't know who's heading what but i'm sure it's a bunch of independent investigations too. Daily Mail leaked the info late last month and said that, according to scientific advisers, they're off by a factor of 15 to 40 times. giving credit to that story is that a day or two after that report we got info about how US intelligence believes China's massively downplaying numbers, though they didn't give specifics. due to the timing though i give it credit for being true. before this we had a leak by Epoch Times that was 2.6-52x but nobody else could back the numbers up, the range was way too wide, and while they've been mostly reliable and break good info before others, they're also heavily anti-China. that report's notable for having specific instances of daily tallies that were lied about. the 15-40x number is more recent and more reliable, so i'd go with that until further info's released.

to corroborate the evidence: around the same time period that happened there was an update on the number of urns Wuhan got: estimated to being over 40,000. a single location got 5000, another had said they'd been getting 3500 for at least 2 days. China was saying they only had 2500 Wuhan deaths at the time. there's 8 locations so figure if each is 5k, 40k+. this all matches up well with the stuff back in January regarding funeral homes/cremations. when you do the math you get something right at the low end so it makes sense for Wuhan.

...now everywhere else, who knows how many lies are in that. would imagine that's why the range is so wide still. but the short of it? even with the new totals, add a 0 and multiply by 1-4.

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Trump's strategy of "see, we aren't as bad as China" doesn't really hold anything of merit unfortunately.
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PerfectChaosZ posted...

Where am I supposed to find a flipping mask if everywhere is out ugh

There's a restaurant near me that's selling disposable masks for 2 dollars each, in addition to food.

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Honestly I literally just used a sock to go somewhere. There's 3 main ways I've seen, though two are similar and boil down to "long enough to wrap around ear to ear, snip in a bit, loop them in ears." Add filter or something in the middle and book, triple layered mask.

Socks, hats, t-shirts, basically any piece of clothing can be modified for legal purposes. Hell, just wrap a scarf higher.

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I have no earthly idea how these models have us staying at 60k dead by August.

Also haven't the number of cases gone up the past two days?

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Model was 68k and change when I checked it yesterday.

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The number of new cases declined the last two days, but not by very much. At this point the new case numbers aren't very helpful or indicative of much beyond affirming there definitely is still severe community spread. Hospitalizations, unfortunately through a lag effect, show severity as of around 8-10 days ago, but they are a little better of a metric.

I don't know a lot about what those are showing, though, besides Virginia which I follow closely. Today was a bit worse than the past 10 days, but hospital reporting is also inconsistent so it's frustrating.

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Nanis23 posted...

Can someone please explain to me all those reopening talks

I mean...what changed? why would it be different now than it was before? there is still no cure. There are still active cases that can spread it again
Just because people now might be more cautius doesn't mean it can't spread
And if using gloves and masks was enough in the first place...why even close everything instead of just force everyone to wear masks?

I don't understand
We are just asking for another outbreak

the two most important points:
1) this situation is completely unsustainable, economically. nevermind a recession, we're going to full blown depression. this shut down is at the point that we're going to exceed the great depression's unemployment percentage next week. if we don't start planning a way to climb back out it'll only get worse.

2) this situation is completely unsustainable, socially. people are restless. this will vary based on location but for Americans, generally a quarantine will be accepted but once you start getting more heavy handed, pushback increases until your measures are going to backfire completely. incrementally adding restrictions only works to a point and if you cross it people just won't care and will instead turn to litigation and using the courts. they'll likely win in all honesty too, so this isn't particularly useful for state governments (who would be the ones enforcing the measures). there are other issues this restlessness has, including an increase of drug usage, burglary, robbery, mental deterioration, domestic abuse, and suicide. by having a multi-stepped process to open up, it helps provide relief for the worst aspects here while keeping safety.

the above two things are why you're seeing a push, in the US at least, to open up. because we're a big country some areas likely can without issue - they aren't experiencing many issues because they're already super spread out. in terms of "what's changed" there's another huge thing you're forgetting: medical capability. our medical supply lines are running way better now; we've got some basic treatments in trials, we've got medical equipment ready to go in excessive amounts, we've got new hospitals and the ability to create hospitals established, we're manufacturing tests that we know will work as opposed to the shit China's selling - ask the UK how that $20 million investment worked out. or Spain's 640,000 tests that they had to throw out because of its 30% success rate. this is one area where "don't buy Chinese, buy American" is absolutely vital and globally the impact should be seen more and more over time. Japanese or Taiwanese should also be fine, i assume German will be too and if they aren't trying to become the main producers in Europe now i don't know what they're doing. point is the global economy/manufacturing industry is realigning itself to move without China.

so there's no cure yet, active cases will spread, and you'll see basically a chart that looks like an EKG reading for a while. but we can actually start figuring out what to do and how to act as opposed to closing everything and hoping for the best.

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Wanglicious posted...

China lying again but they're trying to lie less.
they're saying they were off on deaths in Wuhan by 50%.

cool, so now it's... 3869 officially there.
i mean it's still way off considering the initial numbers are estimated to being 15 to 42 times higher but no surprise here.

Considering France added thousands of death and New York added 3700 deaths retroactively too, I'm pretty sure every country is still wrong by thousands.

Wanglicious posted...

this situation is completely unsustainable, economically. nevermind a recession, we're going to full blown depression.

How do you define that though if the stock market continues to rebound as it has been
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TheRock1525 posted...

I have no earthly idea how these models have us staying at 60k dead by August.

Also haven't the number of cases gone up the past two days?

I know that the IHME model is forced to be symmetric by assumption (new daily cases are basically fit to a bell curve), which is actually not correct and is very likely forcing the downswing estimates to be artificially optimistic (the actual data indicates a slower downswing than upswing):

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009

To be fair to them the purpose of their model was predicting peak hospital utilization, not predicting total deaths or when things would be under control.

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