LogFAQs > #937593456

LurkerFAQs, Active DB, DB1, DB2, DB3, DB4, DB5, Database 6 ( 01.01.2020-07.18.2020 ), DB7, DB8, DB9, DB10, DB11, DB12, Clear

Topic List	Page List: 1
Topic	Coronavirus topic 7: Biohazard
LordoftheMorons 04/17/20 5:42:50 PM #50:	TheRock1525 posted... I have no earthly idea how these models have us staying at 60k dead by August. Also haven't the number of cases gone up the past two days? I know that the IHME model is forced to be symmetric by assumption (new daily cases are basically fit to a bell curve), which is actually not correct and is very likely forcing the downswing estimates to be artificially optimistic (the actual data indicates a slower downswing than upswing): https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009 To be fair to them the purpose of their model was predicting peak hospital utilization, not predicting total deaths or when things would be under control. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:937593456] in Coronaviru... [t:78589420]...</cite> <quote>TheRock1525 posted... </cite> <quote>I have no earthly idea how these models have us staying at 60k dead by August. Also haven't the number of cases gone up the past two days?</quote>I know that the IHME model is forced to be symmetric by assumption (new daily cases are basically fit to a bell curve), which is actually not correct and is very likely forcing the downswing estimates to be artificially optimistic (the actual data indicates a slower downswing than upswing): https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009 To be fair to them the purpose of their model was predicting peak hospital utilization, not predicting total deaths or when things would be under control. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Topic List	Page List: 1