Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1291

(+) Yeah! (+)

I had D.Va losing to Zelda in the block finals but im gonna be stunned if she beats Fox

OrangeCrush980 posted...

I had Aeris winning this 8 pack and I now know that Fox is going to impale her.

what? Fox looks awful here.

i mean Aeris doesn't look great either but i think she should still be favored.
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I bet Fox does worse than Waluigi if he gets there.
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Squall needs to AVENGE Ramza next battle.
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I have Fox winning but I might change it if I could pick again.

Fox/Aerith is basically a coin flip according to the 2010 x-stats (50.55% win for Aerith) and those two were in the same division. I'd be impressed if she could really just no sell 8 more years of presumed FFVII decline and win that.

Fox is outperforming his 2010 projection on Jill here. 2013 Jill looked a good deal worse but Mega Man often seems to destroy midcarders ridiculously and Resident Evil has done well enough so far this contest.
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What would happen if D.Va and Waluigi swapped spots?

Waluigi would easily win while D. Va will easily lose.
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there is still a chance that D.Va gets a rally in the second round when she actually needs it.
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im317 posted...

there is still a chance that D.Va gets a rally in the second round when she actually needs it.

Not a chance, unless someone is rallying on pornhub or something
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I'd take Aerith > Jill in a heartbeat, so even if Fox wins, it won't be by much.
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I think that it's safe to say we will not have rallies this contest (at least, not a site-breaking rally like Draven and Undertale)
After Monika shat the bed and now Waluigi being useless, who can we even expect to be a potential rally?
Geralt is the next most likely outcome and this is only because it feels like something CD Projekt Red can get behind. They just seem like the kind of company that would care, seeing how their GOG Twitter is and stuff
On the other hand they did disappoint by not rallying Witcher 3 against Undertale..and answered to my Facebook message asking them to by saying they are sorry they didn't see it in time
Who knows
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I guess nobody outside of this site cares for rallies enough to mess us up.
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We are not buttdevastated enough

Extha I blame you
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I'm quickly taking Aerith > Jill too, but I have a confidence in Fox now that I lacked before the contest...and there's not a lot of wiggle room between thosr two ideas.

I don't think Jill's coming out of this looking too bad though.
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Don't be so quick to dismiss rallies. Sans and Draven have yet to come up.
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I keep saying this but the LoL Subreddit doesn't allow rally topics anymore, so I wouldn't expect anything from Draven this year.
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I think people are not talking enough about a Geralt rally.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I think people are not talking enough about a Geralt rally.

Who?
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Geralt is from Witcher 3. At least in the past CD Projekt Red has tried to rally for Witcher 3 related entries in online votes. They claim they would have rallied for Witcher 3 during the previous games contest if they knew about the match in time. Witcher 3 lost to MGS2 over Thanksgiving Day weekend which is why they weren't in to see the rally request.
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Actually Gerals is from the Witcher series which has 3 main games so far. I currently playing Witcher 3 and yeah it is trully amazing.
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im not so sure about Fox>D.Va. i think pic factor is a big part of D.Va's strength, so Aloy was actually a bad draw for her. i had D.Va winning in my bracket and im not sure i would change it if i could.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Geralt is from Witcher 3. At least in the past CD Projekt Red has tried to rally for Witcher 3 related entries in online votes. They claim they would have rallied for Witcher 3 during the previous games contest if they knew about the match in time. Witcher 3 lost to MGS2 over Thanksgiving Day weekend which is why they weren't in to see the rally request.

Oh yeah I thought it was against Undertale or something, why did I bother then?
Anyway - found it
https://imgur.com/DFe9ZJU

I was a jerk lol
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im317 posted...

im not so sure about Fox>D.Va. i think pic factor is a big part of D.Va's strength, so Aloy was actually a bad draw for her. i had D.Va winning in my bracket and im not sure i would change it if i could.

Aloy and D.Va are both terrible on a site like this. If no rally happens, Fox destroys her.
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I mean, I want to take their "please feel free to let us know a little more ahead of time in the future" advice, but if Geralt can't beat Rosalina on natural strength then maybe he is not the chosen one after all
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Match XLI: (1) Geralt vs. (16) Rosalina

Previous Contest Performance

Geralt - N/A
N/A

Rosalina - N/A
N/A

Analysis

To be truthful, I had Rosalina winning here for a long time, not because I had any faith in her, but because I thought Geralt was that weak. After some thought, I decided to go with Geralt. Witcher 3 had a decent performance in both the Game of the Year polls and the 2015 contest.

Rosalina is a relative recent addition to the Mario series and while Galaxy is old enough for GameFAQs users to care about the other new Mario games have been largely ignored by the site. She also has Smash hype going for her, but honestly shes likely to be the weakest Mario character in this bracket. Im not entirely convinced that Geralt will be worth much, but it should be enough to win here.

charmander6000s Bracket: Geralt > Rosalina

charmander6000s Prediction: Geralt wins, 61.34% - 38.66%




Match XLII: (8) Ryu Hayabusa vs. (9) Simon Belmont

Previous Contest Performance

Ryu Hayabusa - 2013
Round 1: 29.59% against Kefka (37.82%) and Zack Fair (32.59%)

Simon Belmont - 2013
Round 1: 30.54% against Gordon Freeman (54.64%) and Hades (14.83%)

Analysis

Ive been quite nervous about this match, especially after Kefka legitimized his area of the bracket earlier this round. Simon Belmont wasnt worth much more than fodder in 2013, but with his announcement in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate he now has a meaningful appearance since the NES days. Its difficult to say how much of a boost hell get and while this site is full of old man there is still a significant part that didnt start playing games until after the NES generation.

Like other characters, my expectation of Hayabusa is that hell be weaker this contest. He still has his cool design to fall back upon so maybe his drop wont be too drastic. The gap between the two characters in 2013 is quite large and with this half of the division quite open I imagine that whoever loses someone is going to lose seven points on their bracket.

charmander6000s Bracket: Simon Belmont > Ryu Hayabusa

charmander6000s Prediction: Simon Belmont wins, 52.43% - 47.57%
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Match XLIII: (5) Sans vs. (12) Pac-Man

Previous Contest Performance

Sans - N/A
N/A

Pac-Man - 2013
Round 1: 38.80% against Nathan Drake (41.80%) and Steve (19.40%)

Analysis

I dont think Sans has a great chance at winning here. Theres no doubt that Undertale got a boost from winning the games contest in 2015 from all the exposure, but the game was quite weak beforehand. By the time we reached the Game of the Year poll Undertale was soundly beaten. There is a bit of a push to get Sans into Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, but I feel that push is similar to that of Shantae than to Waluigi.

While Sans has quite a recognizable design that doesnt help you when your opponent is Pac-Man. He may not be the strongest character in the bracket, but he almost has become the standard you have to beat in order to not be considered fodder. Personally, I think the fodder line should be slightly below him, but the point stands that Pac-Man has some strength. A rally for Sans isnt completely out of the question, like in 2015 all it takes is a popular person to bring notice to this contest for him to win.

charmander6000s Bracket: Pac-Man > Sans

charmander6000s Prediction: Pac-Man wins, 63.11% - 36.89%




Match XLIV: (4) Bayonetta vs. (13) Riku

Previous Contest Performance

Bayonetta - 2013
Round 1: 49.50% against N (28.78%) and Wander (21.73%)
Round 2: 16.64% against Solid Snake (60.57%) and Alucard (22.79%)

Riku - 2013
Round 1: 30.17% against Charizard (59.16%) and Nier (10.66%)

Analysis

This match and potentially this half of the division comes down to how much of a boost did Bayonetta receive. In 2013 Bayonetta was relatively niche and she did okay, given what she was. Since then her game received a sequel, though it did poorly during the games contest and more importantly she was a playable character in Super Smash Bros. 4. Some people may argue that Smash fans hate her because shes dominant, but honestly the competitive scene is a small portion of the games overall strength and I feel the exposure outweighs turning neutral people against her.

Riku and Kingdom Hearts in general did not have a good contest in 2013 where he was soundly beaten by Charizard. Sora didnt give me a lot of faith towards a Kingdom Hearts 3 boost, but to be fair he was up against a character that was likely to be stronger. If Bayonetta gets a sizable boost in strength, I feel Riku will need at least something in order to be competitive.

charmander6000s Bracket: Bayonetta > Riku

charmander6000s Prediction: Bayonetta wins, 55.73% - 44.27%
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Nanis23 posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Geralt is from Witcher 3. At least in the past CD Projekt Red has tried to rally for Witcher 3 related entries in online votes. They claim they would have rallied for Witcher 3 during the previous games contest if they knew about the match in time. Witcher 3 lost to MGS2 over Thanksgiving Day weekend which is why they weren't in to see the rally request.

Oh yeah I thought it was against Undertale or something, why did I bother then?
Anyway - found it
https://imgur.com/DFe9ZJU

I was a jerk lol

"Thanks for nothing," that's some shade alright.
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Nanis23 posted...

I mean, I want to take their "please feel free to let us know a little more ahead of time in the future" advice, but if Geralt can't beat Rosalina on natural strength then maybe he is not the chosen one after all

But that's the problem, he should have what it takes to beat Rosalina and maybe a few more, so the rally will have plenty of time to built itself.

I really think I'm finally going to lose one with this next set.

Geralt
Ryu H
Pac-Man
Riku

Who will get anti-voted more: Bayonetta or Sans? Will the anti-votes be enough to prevent them from winning?
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Probably Sans. I'd wager that the anti-Undertale community here is larger than the guys so into the Wii U Smash scene that they'd actually anti-vote Bayonetta for being broken.
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Yeah, I don't think Bayonetta's anti-voting will be much of anything to worry about.
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I'm so distant from the Smash scene that it's not even something that I think about when I see Bayonetta.
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would Bayonetta 3 getting a release date do anything?
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charmander6000 posted...

Aloy has cut 300 votes overnight. Too little, too late sadly.

Aloy has basically been stalling since around 2:00 AM. It seems like this is because of the Europe vote, in which Aloy is winning most of Europe.

Overwatch does strike me as a game that I think would have a good ASV if we still had an ASV to speak of.
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Actually, looking at the vote form on the mobile site, both "Shovel Knight" and "Captain Toad" cannot fit, as "Shovel Knight" extends into the space under Captain Toad's picture. "Capt. Toad" may have been able to fit though.

Advokaiser posted...

Who will get anti-voted more: Bayonetta or Sans? Will the anti-votes be enough to prevent them from winning?

Lightning blowing the doors off of Chloe Price in a year where Final Fantasy hasn't looked that great should convince you that anti-voting isn't a significant thing, I feel.
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HaRRicH posted...

Nanis23 posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Geralt is from Witcher 3. At least in the past CD Projekt Red has tried to rally for Witcher 3 related entries in online votes. They claim they would have rallied for Witcher 3 during the previous games contest if they knew about the match in time. Witcher 3 lost to MGS2 over Thanksgiving Day weekend which is why they weren't in to see the rally request.

Oh yeah I thought it was against Undertale or something, why did I bother then?
Anyway - found it
https://imgur.com/DFe9ZJU

I was a jerk lol

"Thanks for nothing," that's some shade alright.

I mean
I don't usually admit I was wrong but seeing how nice their response was and how they had a very good excuse for not answering in time...yeah, my bad
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LusterSoldier posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Aloy has cut 300 votes overnight. Too little, too late sadly.

Aloy has basically been stalling since around 2:00 AM. It seems like this is because of the Europe vote, in which Aloy is winning most of Europe.

Overwatch does strike me as a game that I think would have a good ASV if we still had an ASV to speak of.

Not to mention whatever is left of the ASV wouldn't be likely to trend that way on a Sunday.
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So looks like tomorrow might have the most interesting set of matches so far. Multiple matches could go either way.

@LusterSoldier

So I think the updater works properly now. Or are you still triggering it with your script Luster?

Had you told me in your emails that it wasnt working the first four hours? I mightve glossed over that...

creativename posted...

So I think the updater works properly now. Or are you still triggering it with your script Luster?

Had you told me in your emails that it wasnt working the first four hours? I mightve glossed over that...

It's working normally now. I'm not triggering it with a script to access the manual poll update URL.

Yes, the updater wasn't working for the first four hours, but you have fixed this now.
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Haha, Rosalina leading Geralt

Sans getting antivoted to death...
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Pac-Man currently doubling Sans!

Geralt please
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I will accept Sans getting doubled, even if I took him to win. Get those rally potential characters out.
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Rosalina taking it to Geralt early...
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Hmm that's a pretty terrible Geralt picture. That kind of worries me.
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Not looking good for Hayabusa...
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This site really does hate any popular game from the current generation
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