Lurker > Lopen

Like Peaf was putting EFFORT into a game where he was fairly passive and said he had things he needed to do

As scum. With "town" on the chopping block and being locked in a relationship with "town"

It makes zero sense. It's probably not Dumey and JC. It could be Dumey or JC and Kirby

EDumey posted...

Peaf was lone scum doing something dumb for town cred

Peaf was BUSY

I don't feel like it makes any sense with the amount of activity Peaf had and what he claimed (and why lie) was happening. It's so easy to just peace out if you have no vested interest in the result.

It probably is just Kirby

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red already explained why JC/Dumey/Peaf cannot be a trio with 2+ scum in it.

Can you walk it by me.

Kirby321 posted...

Then why would JC agree to be the first pair to split? Putting himself at risk when there was no guarantee that anyone else would follow is just as illogical as Peaf splitting from Dumey

He and Peaf would be on a scumboard at this point. Who knows what the scum would be scheming.

I mean no matter what Peaf's actions in an all town situation make zero sense. I think you need to assume scum exists there be it in Dumey Kirby or JC

Here's the mindset

Kirby JC Lea (Lea is dating Kirby probably and JC dies-- this is when Peaf jumped off)
Kirby JC Lea Dumey Peaf (now JC can take the Peaf life vest and Dumey or Kirby die)

Then you threw Kurt Angle into the mix when FD and I broke up and the chaos ate Peaf

Let's kill JC

Also I think if the pool is Kirby JC Lea

JC almost certainly dies

If you look at the pool at that point the play is Peaf is playing to save JC

Big thing that weirded me out about JC is he claimed vanilla like right away when he broke up

Almost like he wanted to get that claim out of the way when it was less sus

JC is also an option if you want Spice

FD and me don't enter the calculation as we weren't in the pool when he broke off
Lea doesn't either because Lea is never at any real risk

The hot hand thinks we just purge Dumey and/or Kirby

We go back to the old Razor and the only way Peaf breaking from Dumey makes sense is if other scum were involved at a critical point in the transaction

If it's town Kirby and town Dumey Peaf just... goes to work, like he said he was.

It makes no sense otherwise.

This is my official stance on the day. I think seeing Lea continue with Dumey reinvigorated me.

Oh you're still on that one. Yeah I dunno

I think C can be done without being informed (I felt the same way) and B was basically what you and Peaf did so it feels odd for you to call out on it.

And I still don't feel A had a lot of weight in terms of Sultan's actual gameplan. He said it wasn't a joke post but I do feel like him feeling compelled to post was a joke phase like energy

I just think there should be more at this stage. All your pings are very early game stuff aside from the Mzero reaction test (which is imo NAI-- Sultan does that kinda stuff as either alignment)

I think if I had the gun I'd kill Red atm.

But a lot of day left.

Like Dumey was the main thing I was out for because I'm basically the only person saying Dumey isn't towncleared

SirChris posted...

I don't even know why you bothered with the night chats

I was getting data to sanity check whether Lea was just going along with any suspicions I gave and being friendly or actually trying to help find scum

That was just an interesting find

Kirby321 posted...

It's like... what is there to analyze? Death is dead. Chris isn't. Death is bodyguard, so it's either him or Chris that was NK'd. There's not a whole lot of possibilities here, so it's no wonder most people ended up at the same conclusion.

I literally gave you a detailed analysis of night chat discussions that makes it pretty obvious that scum doesn't kill Chris

You being obtuse and claiming it's still a 50-50 situation feels scummish.

My point is people should basically be treating Death's flip as vanilla right now. It has basically no value in clearing Chris.

I honestly would like a better reason to actually lynch Sultan

Feels like it's mostly "these guys are town and Sultan is not" which is cop outty

EDumey posted...

MZero is the one you didn't mention here

Mzero I'm leaning town but soft bus of Peaf is possible despite me thinking it clears him. He also said occulam's Razor and cleared Chris quick which I did not like.

Kirby321 posted...

I don't think Death being the NK target is alignment indicative to Chris

I don't think so either that's not my point

I'm saying the analysis surrounding Death and Chris doesn't feel organic and people are eager to jump to conclusions one way or another

It feels like this shouldn't weigh a lot if you were already suspecting Chris, and the 99% if Death was shot is a nonsense statistic that is likely irrelevant because what scum team shoots Chris here

Ultimately I think that my logic of "Death Corrik and Isquen are town because scum doesn't play passively enough when finding dates to be left there" is pretty solid. And Peaf was battling that too, note.

EDumey posted...

Lopen and Lea, if neither of you are comfortable throwing me in the townie list, who out of Chris, FD, Red, Corrik, MZero, Sultan would you want to take out of the fight?

I'd sooner date you than Red at the moment. I think Sultan feels town. I think Corrik actually feels town. I think FD is probably town. Chris I'm on the fence and probably town but literally everyone in the game having some suspicion of him and multiple people willing to just say "well yeah he was bodyguarded" rather than reaching the better conclusion of "Death was killed" has me nervous.

The dumb answer here is that Ulti and Red are just the scumteam being blatant with a smart cop with awestruck rookie gimmick thing going on and I could see it.

So I'd date anyone but Red on that list.

Don't love the Lea post there. I don't think "turning" is exactly what I was doing.

Also think it's interesting that Chris supported my line of attack on Isquen which wasn't really great but violently battled my line of attack on Peaf at every step.

People who pushed for your suspicion today after bg flip

Ulti
Sultan
Isquen
Also me but I don't count imo

Red was also perhaps a bit basic in his analysis which pinged me as well. He insisted you were cleared as though you were obviously shot-- a lot of people in the game did not do that and after some analysis of suspect lists I would be extremely surprised if Death was not shot directly. He also insisted that scum would not shoot a bodyguard but would use their roleblocker on it perpetually? Did not make any sense to me.

I suspect Isquen more than Corrik at the moment basically entirely due to Isquen immediately absorbing the nuance of the BG role when he said he didn't register Peaf was scum.

I'm not sure he's scum but really absorbing that it's hard to accept for me.

Anyway

I'll date you for realsies today if you don't find any dates. So no worries. Solve and stuff

Let's sweep em.

SirChris posted...

Yar

Also good work lopen. You manifested your day 1 scum kill lol

Day 1 scum kill always believe. That's what wins mafia games imo

Isquen posted...

I am also ashamed to admit just how thick *I* am for not realizing Peaf was scum until a couple minutes ago.

This is super interesting in the context of

Isquen posted...

Didnt read the flip. He either bodyguarded Chris or was directly targeted.

This.

Why did Isquen know THIS flip like instantly when me glancing at it didn't absorb that when he didn't absorb Peaf was scum for 24 hours

Part of me is thinking Death got shot entirely so Chris could not towncase himself and end isolated today.

Now I need to think who was really going on Chris today even after the BG flip.

SirChris posted...

mzeros interactions with peaf don't seem partnered at all

I think I believe Chris's recount entirely due to this

This was something I found when Isoing Peaf as well. And it was notable as basically the only person who said anything anti-Peaf aside from me until late day

Incidentally this is why I'm considering if scum Lea is possible

She didn't really seem to have suspects of her own. Those were all mine. She did help talk through it but perhaps that was just her feeding rope to hang myself with.

In particular that we were the only room that gave scum Dumey ANY talk (and that she was actually going for it perhaps more than I was) is certainly interesting to me. She also brought up Ulti as a suspect more than me to her credit, like it wasn't all sheeping me or anything but she didn't bring any suspects that were like "nope" and we were full vibing on Dumey at least being worth considering (though I had mentioned I don't think Dumey and Chris are paired because Dumey had a big rant post on Chris that didn't feel theatre)

Given Death was killed and we were basically talking up a gameplan where we went after Death first as a feint to see if suspected scum would pair though, I don't know. Kinda think I'm overthinking it and it's Lea's personality to play along with ideas given and explore them rather than provide her own contradictory ideas. I dunno.

EDumey posted...

You know my answer to this. Did you and Lea humour the idea of scum Sultan at all?

Our only scum suspect talk were the four I mentioned.

Lea talked about Sultan and Mzero but not in a suspect manner.

Mzero x Sultan Chris
Dumey x JC Chris Ulti
Corrik x Isquen None

Here are the teams that did not mention suspicion of Death

Doesn't necessarily mean anything but if you assume scum is out for mislynches I would imagine at least one scum would be in these rooms.

However I could absolutely have seen Death being a straight power read.

The other funny angle to consider is if it was done to frame Chris with scum seeing multiple rooms suspecting him and backfired tremendously.

Second question did any rooms have major discussions on suspects other than those 4?

Ok so all teams aside from Chris answered

Mzero x Sultan Chris
Ulti x Red Chris Death
Dumey x JC Chris Ulti
FD x Kirby Chris Death Ulti
Corrik x Isquen None
Chris x Death ?
Lopen x Lea Chris Dumey Death Ulti

Literally every team in the game that talked suspected Chris

Unless scum paired with scum I'd say its nearly impossible Chris was NKed and Death was shot directly as scum would know at least two town suspected him heavily and that combined with general vibe, I really doubt he's killed.

Also our team was the ONLY one who suspected Dumey.

Very curious.

Gordon

I'm sorta kicking around whether Kirby x Lea x Peaf makes sense

I'll have to think about it

Anyone who hasn't answered the previous question please do for more data

As many people who can answer that please do. I need to know.

Question

Did anyone analyze last night thinking one of the following. If so how many

- Chris was likely scum
- Dumey was likely scum
- Death was likely scum
- Ulti was likely scum

Just wondering

I would volunteer to pair with mzero but I want the power to murder people

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Maybe ulti has just never spent the night phase reading and analyzing the game, so this feels like magic to him the way modern science would in the 1800s.

Hahaha. This is hilarious by the way

Well played

red13n posted...

Hell if they claim bodyguard you still don't shoot them

... yes you do

You can push the narrative of "Chris was targeted by nk night 1 he's town"

I also kinda doubt the setup has roleblocker but you assuming it's a given is odd

The only one awestruck by that chat Ulti posted is Ulti

You can do more we won't mind

Kirby321 posted...

I like how Sultan's response to Dumey suspecting him is "Hey bro how about we pair up? Could be interesting" lol

It's so Sultan though

I am absolutely against lynching Sultan atm

I know this because I isoed peaf off the top of my head

Sultan shaded you more than Peaf because you were on his case for doing the same thing with Peaf you said zsultan was doing with mzero

Which is fair

Like I don't think it would mean much unless he floated his claim in scumchat and you'd expect someone to say "hell no don't claim that"

Well his claim was awful too

No one would jump off to save Ned Flanders

foolm0r0n posted...

Scams did exist so that's a wrong thing to think

Scams existed but the barrier to entry was higher and it was harder to be convincing and profitable

EDumey posted...

The part that I don't get is that he didn't even try to extend a date to anyone else. Only Kirby. Maybe he just knew he was caught.

I think the part about him driving to work or whatever was not a lie and he just got back on and was like "welp looks like I'm hosed"

It was disingenuous because he knew red wouldn't do it

Forceful_Dragon posted...

it felt like Ulti knew peaf would flip town and wanted to gain town points for having that read.

The reason its a load of wifom to me is Ulti had no reason to think he was town with that amount of certainty and it certain runs counter to his whole "I wanna live through day 1 screw you mo"

It was a disingenuous gesture. I will say it's a disingenuous gesture in his town range but I wouldn't call it anything worth any town cted

Forceful_Dragon posted...

It would be SUCH a weird move to do as scum if you knew a scum flip was incoming. Ulti would have looked a lot worse today if Peaf flipped town power

If Ulti is scum he knows Peaf's flip what are you even talking about

I thought Ulti was town early
Then thought he was scum for his overly "if Peaf is town blah blah blah" and laziness and enabling red to lurk
Then I came around to thinking he was town who just didn't want to stress about defending himself and knew red would prioritize living

Start of day he's been super ass kissy of red and has an incoherent POE despite red being such a wealth of knowledge which has me suspecting scum again