Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Topic 4: Deathly in Love

(+) Yeah! (+)

I really wanted to get details from Death to help decide how I feel about Chris. With Death dying, I think I still am on the Chris suspicion train. If Chris doesn't come in and clear up his promise to Lopen, I really want no one to give him any charitability. Don't let the Death flip bias you too heavily.

But right now my top suspect is Sultan. I was already suspicious of him for most of D1, but with Peaf's flip, it made me more conscious of how Sultan was almost obsessively focused on saying one of the early pairs had to be scum. The only problem is that he always directed it towards me rather than Peaf. TO BE FAIR, I had a lot more content for Sultan to react to than Peaf, so I can understand from that perspective. But either Sultan had really good intuition as town and sniffed something wrong with our pair, or he KNEW something was wrong and was pointing it at me instead of a scum mate.

Lopen posted...

If Ulti is scum he knows Peaf's flip what are you even talking about

idk maybe it's a double bluff, but at the time it felt like Ulti knew peaf would flip town and wanted to gain town points for having that read.

Which is why it feels more like a wrong town read than a scum ploy. But I guess WIFOM can always go a level deeper.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

it felt like Ulti knew peaf would flip town and wanted to gain town points for having that read.

The reason its a load of wifom to me is Ulti had no reason to think he was town with that amount of certainty and it certain runs counter to his whole "I wanna live through day 1 screw you mo"

It was a disingenuous gesture. I will say it's a disingenuous gesture in his town range but I wouldn't call it anything worth any town cted

I talked with JC about Peaf's motivations for leaving our pair willingly. And it's hard to make sense of it. I really think he thought Kirby quickly taking the extended date offer was more of a guarantee than it actually was. I think Lopen is right on the money. All he had to do was shut up and ride it out, and no one would have been that suspicious. But being present and sitting still, I think he panicked about his perception and thought it would be scummy to NOT try and save Kirby?

The part that I don't get is that he didn't even try to extend a date to anyone else. Only Kirby. Maybe he just knew he was caught. I think the chance Kirby is scum is like 2%. But it would be incredibly funny if Peaf left to save a scum Kirby, and Kirby denied him because it would be too suspicious.

It was disingenuous because he knew red wouldn't do it

EDumey posted...

The part that I don't get is that he didn't even try to extend a date to anyone else. Only Kirby. Maybe he just knew he was caught.

I think the part about him driving to work or whatever was not a lie and he just got back on and was like "welp looks like I'm hosed"

Forceful_Dragon posted...

idk maybe it's a double bluff, but at the time it felt like Ulti knew peaf would flip town and wanted to gain town points for having that read.

Which is why it feels more like a wrong town read than a scum ploy. But I guess WIFOM can always go a level deeper.

Lopen posted...

The reason its a load of wifom to me is Ulti had no reason to think he was town with that amount of certainty and it certain runs counter to his whole "I wanna live through day 1 screw you mo"

It was a disingenuous gesture. I will say it's a disingenuous gesture in his town range but I wouldn't call it anything worth any town cted

I agree that Ulti demanding someone save Peaf at the end was disingenuous and shouldn't give Ulti any town cred. I just saw it as a neutral Ulti play because he almost always responds to claims with "I buy it." So it's not exactly a surprise he did it there.

Lopen posted...

I think the part about him driving to work or whatever was not a lie and he just got back on and was like "welp looks like I'm hosed"

See I think this helps us narrow down scumbuddies to people who weren't around a bit, for at least one of them. They weren't ready for a Peaf claim.

Well his claim was awful too

No one would jump off to save Ned Flanders

Like I don't think it would mean much unless he floated his claim in scumchat and you'd expect someone to say "hell no don't claim that"

EDumey posted...

I really wanted to get details from Death to help decide how I feel about Chris. With Death dying, I think I still am on the Chris suspicion train. If Chris doesn't come in and clear up his promise to Lopen, I really want no one to give him any charitability. Don't let the Death flip bias you too heavily.

But right now my top suspect is Sultan. I was already suspicious of him for most of D1, but with Peaf's flip, it made me more conscious of how Sultan was almost obsessively focused on saying one of the early pairs had to be scum. The only problem is that he always directed it towards me rather than Peaf. TO BE FAIR, I had a lot more content for Sultan to react to than Peaf, so I can understand from that perspective. But either Sultan had really good intuition as town and sniffed something wrong with our pair, or he KNEW something was wrong and was pointing it at me instead of a scum mate.

Bro I said you were town yesterday???

I know this because I isoed peaf off the top of my head

Sultan shaded you more than Peaf because you were on his case for doing the same thing with Peaf you said zsultan was doing with mzero

Which is fair

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Bro I said you were town yesterday???

At the very end after everything was settled maybe. You literally were going, "wow Dumey looks sus here" and then "and now he says something that makes me think townie, haha" I can't read your mind, but you were definitely throwing shade my way near the end of the day, and were focused on calling out the early pairs multiple times.

Like it's definitely possible that Town Sultan just had good intuition and smelled something wrong with the early pairs. I'm not disrespecting Sultan in saying he couldn't do that.

I'm just invoking my "smell test" right in the same way!

EDumey posted...

The part that I don't get is that he didn't even try to extend a date to anyone else. Only Kirby. Maybe he just knew he was caught.

If he knew he was caught, it makes zero sense to not just... stall the day out. The ball was totally in his court to just sit idly and let the day go on because he was guaranteed safety unless he willingly split up.

No matter how you spin it, Peaf's actions make absolutely zero sense from a logical perspective unless it was a gambit to save me, his scummate. But I know I'm town, so logically the only conclusion I can make is that Peaf's actions were utterly nonsensical. At this point, I'm convinced we gain nothing of value from trying to figure out where Peaf's head was at, but we do gain a lot from studying how everyone else reacted around him.

And based on how that EoD went, I'm convinced that most people scrambling with couples were town. Any free scum in that rodeo could've tried to save Peaf at any moment, but nobody even batted an eye at him. So his scumbuddies are very likely in the pile of people who were safely paired during that entire thing.

... Which is the same thing FD posted earlier. Damn, he's so towny

Also town core

Lea
Dumey
Lopen
Mzero

I do think numerically, there's a very high chance at least one scum was in the group of people not actively doing things at end of day. So that's at the very least one of MZero/Isquen/Ulti/Corrik/Red/Chris. That's like half the game, so not exactly a hard bet to take. My current read of the game is just that it was Sultan who was tied into his MZero date, and one inactive. So Peaf was alone and was just trying to make an optics play, not expecting to have Kirby not even consider him, lmao.

EDumey posted...

So Peaf was alone and was just trying to make an optics play, not expecting to have Kirby not even consider him, lmao.

Peaf should have known that Kirby and I had something special and he couldn't stand in our way.

Unless Kirby is scum in which case I disavow our love entirely.

Unless you want me dead us being an odd couple situation could be something interesting dumey.

But forreal today no need to rush anything.

I like how Sultan's response to Dumey suspecting him is "Hey bro how about we pair up? Could be interesting" lol

Kirby321 posted...

I like how Sultan's response to Dumey suspecting him is "Hey bro how about we pair up? Could be interesting" lol

It's so Sultan though

I am absolutely against lynching Sultan atm

Forceful_Dragon posted...

red has posted 5x so far, but hasn't said much yet.

Ulti stole a bunch of thunder I could have by literally posting our chat.

Beyond that the only change in circumstance is Chris/Death feeling settled.

So we're still waiting on Chris

Red has only made 5~ short posts

Lea only made a single post

Is anyone else coasting?

The only one awestruck by that chat Ulti posted is Ulti

You can do more we won't mind

Oh, there's red.

Why is Chris/Death settled? I'm waiting to hear from Chris still of course, but I'm not convinced Chris was the NK Target.

Lopen posted...

The only one awestruck by that chat Ulti posted is Ulti

You can do more we won't mind

Yeah, I was confused by "omg red is town LOCK"

Maybe ulti has just never spent the night phase reading and analyzing the game, so this feels like magic to him the way modern science would in the 1800s.

The other dynamic to consider is Ulti/Isquen.

Ulti set up from the beginning of D1 that he was gonna date Isquen through D2, regardless of context. Together with finding a free ride via Red, Ulti could have set up a low-risk play to guarantee 2 scum to D3.

Probably not likely, but just looking at Isquen in general here.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Oh, there's red.

Why is Chris/Death settled? I'm waiting to hear from Chris still of course, but I'm not convinced Chris was the NK Target.

You don't have to be convinced.

But we would be wise to look elsewhere I think. You don't pair up with people just to shoot them. Hell if they claim bodyguard you still don't shoot them. Especially presuming they have a roleblocker where whenever they need a kill they can roleblock death.

red13n posted...

Hell if they claim bodyguard you still don't shoot them

... yes you do

You can push the narrative of "Chris was targeted by nk night 1 he's town"

I also kinda doubt the setup has roleblocker but you assuming it's a given is odd

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Maybe ulti has just never spent the night phase reading and analyzing the game, so this feels like magic to him the way modern science would in the 1800s.

Hahaha. This is hilarious by the way

Well played

EDumey posted...

MZero, I think if you're town, you shouldn't be willing to shelter someone to deadline, and I wonder if you would accept allowing us to assign your date by committee.

I disagree. I need to shelter myself to deadline because I might not be around to accept another date even if one is offered. In a normal game town could save me, but in this setup I have to be around or I just die by default. The only player I know 100% is town is myself, so I'd rather literally anyone else get the ax until someone claims power or something

MZero posted...

I disagree. I need to shelter myself to deadline because I might not be around to accept another date even if one is offered. In a normal game town could save me, but in this setup I have to be around or I just die by default. The only player I know 100% is town is myself, so I'd rather literally anyone else get the ax until someone claims power or something

I think mzero is town I'd be okay with we just saying the pair looks good before Mzero goes to sleep. But that's just me

Lopen posted...

... yes you do

You can push the narrative of "Chris was targeted by nk night 1 he's town"

I also kinda doubt the setup has roleblocker but you assuming it's a given is odd

We had a bodyguard and scum has a scanner. I'm just assuming the most common scum role is out there.

MZero posted...

I disagree. I need to shelter myself to deadline because I might not be around to accept another date even if one is offered. In a normal game town could save me, but in this setup I have to be around or I just die by default. The only player I know 100% is town is myself, so I'd rather literally anyone else get the ax until someone claims power or something

All I'm saying is that if you end the day sheltering someone like Chris who has people suspecting him, over someone like Kirby or Lopen, who probably have zero to no chance of being lynched today unless there's damning evidence on them, then you're actively being anti-town. If you pair with someone that's in the PoE for most of our town players, that is a serious piece of evidence against you, unique simply because of the game format.

I mean if you guys want to pair me up with someone trustworthy who won't break my heart I can get behind it but yeah

I would volunteer to pair with mzero but I want the power to murder people

EDumey posted...

All I'm saying is that if you end the day sheltering someone like Chris who has people suspecting him, over someone like Kirby or Lopen, who probably have zero to no chance of being lynched today unless there's damning evidence on them, then you're actively being anti-town. If you pair with someone that's in the PoE for most of our town players, that is a serious piece of evidence against you, unique simply because of the game format.

alright yeah that's fair, although Lopen is a little more volatile than I'd like lmao

Kirby I'd be 100% on board with

That's really all I was saying. If we have to play around the fact that whoever is paired with you will never have the flexibility to do things at end of day, then you should accept some input from people we all collectively trust.

Question

Did anyone analyze last night thinking one of the following. If so how many

- Chris was likely scum
- Dumey was likely scum
- Death was likely scum
- Ulti was likely scum

Just wondering

Do not date Ulti, lol. I don't think Ulti is scum, but he's not nearly the confirmed status I would want you with.

I'm mostly opposed to leaving a breakup request as I go to sleep so I can be ruthlessly murder while I'm not even here

UltimaterializerX posted...

##Date: MZero

Ive proven Im willing to be loyal already (see day 1), and I can tell you openly that Isquen is the only one Id dump you for.

Just gonna break Isquens heart like that you Bastard. Lol also saying he is loyal while he already promised Isquen is Hella lol

I was thinking this is something we'd consider later on. I'm in no rush to lock you into something right now.

Lopen posted...

- Chris was likely scum

Sultan and I were both here

We had town reads on death and Dumey and were mostly confused about Ulti's EoD but ultimately leaned town

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Just gonna break Isquens heart like that you Bastard. Lol also saying he is loyal while he already promised Isquen is Hella lol

Oh Sultan my Sultan