Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Topic 4: Deathly in Love

(+) Yeah! (+)

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I'm town litterally said I'm town right their in the pretty little post you qouted

... Shoot, you're right. It is I who lacks reading comprehension. I kept my sights on the lame joke instead of looking at the reality in front me

##Vote: Kirby

Kirby321 posted...

It's like... what is there to analyze? Death is dead. Chris isn't. Death is bodyguard, so it's either him or Chris that was NK'd. There's not a whole lot of possibilities here, so it's no wonder most people ended up at the same conclusion.

I literally gave you a detailed analysis of night chat discussions that makes it pretty obvious that scum doesn't kill Chris

You being obtuse and claiming it's still a 50-50 situation feels scummish.

My point is people should basically be treating Death's flip as vanilla right now. It has basically no value in clearing Chris.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Lol watch Chris is scum who kills who he dates that be such a crazy role. I'd risk it though

I thought about this but I don't think the rules allow it. We were told there will always be one night kill no matter what to make sure odd number of players alive. So 2 scum being alive and them pairing together would mean the kill doesn't happen.

Maybe he could get some modifier on the kill for dating them, but not just the normal night kill.

I don't even know why you bothered with the night chats it is painfully obvious scum didn't try to kill me just by looking at day 1 lol

Wait I mean. Yes clearly the scum tried to kill me I am clear.

SirChris posted...

I don't even know why you bothered with the night chats

I was getting data to sanity check whether Lea was just going along with any suspicions I gave and being friendly or actually trying to help find scum

That was just an interesting find

Like Dumey was the main thing I was out for because I'm basically the only person saying Dumey isn't towncleared

EDumey posted...

I thought about this but I don't think the rules allow it. We were told there will always be one night kill no matter what to make sure odd number of players alive. So 2 scum being alive and them pairing together would mean the kill doesn't happen.

Maybe he could get some modifier on the kill for dating them, but not just the normal night kill.

Was thinking it would be like a condition or condition power? Like oh ninja kill option since you don't have to leave but ehh idk don't wanna set up meta I'm not good at ot

I mean we can kill dumey today if you like. You got the hot hand!

I think if I had the gun I'd kill Red atm.

But a lot of day left.

Lopen posted...

I honestly would like a better reason to actually lynch Sultan

Feels like it's mostly "these guys are town and Sultan is not" which is cop outty

I understand you not agreeing with my arguments, which were essentially,

A. Sultan immediately goes back on agreeing with Chris about early dating to considering Red date and going with MZero date.
B. Sultan admittedly says MZero date was done because of signup topic jokes. Doesn't ever leave it. Does his silly reaction test at end of day when there was zero chance of MZero coming in to breakup.
C. His intuition that something was wrong with the early pairs, and specifically honing in on me over Peaf (Reasonably explained that I was just more active than Peaf). Feels off to me. Could just be good intuition. Could be acting on some knowledge that there WAS something wrong with the early pair.

As long as Sultan is kept in the actual PoE and not given a free date by our confirmed townies, I'm fine with it. But make him get a date from one of the people we're suspicious of. And if it's just Chris/Sultan, then it's gonna look real bad for them when one of them flips scum.

Chris you may not agree with this, but I think if you're town you shouldn't date Sultan. Because if Sultan ever flips scum, it will be literally impossible for you to get me off your heels.

Wait Did red ever answer me? @red13n @Leafeon13N do we kill ulti today?

Lopen posted...

I literally gave you a detailed analysis of night chat discussions that makes it pretty obvious that scum doesn't kill Chris

You being obtuse and claiming it's still a 50-50 situation feels scummish.

My point is people should basically be treating Death's flip as vanilla right now. It has basically no value in clearing Chris.

Oh, I see what you're saying. Because everyone suspected Chris, scum would feel discouraged from shooting him, thus making it likely he wasn't shot at.

That's reasonable. I think Chrisfear isn't dead, though, and that there's still a possibility of scum gunning for Chris anyway just to remove him as a threat. After all, under normal circumstances, the possibility of having a doctor is very real, but we know that's downright impossible with this setup. So scum could've just blindly shot at Chris regardless. If Chris dies? Hooray, mission accomplished. If someone else dies? Bodyguard is now eliminated and Chris is wide open for killing the next night. Versus a game with Doctor where the worst-case scenario for scum is that nobody dies.

But in any case, if we assume that Death getting NK was the overwhelmingly likelier possibility, who's at the top of your scum list, Lopen? Because I have one person in mind there...

EDumey posted...

I understand you not agreeing with my arguments, which were essentially,

A. Sultan immediately goes back on agreeing with Chris about early dating to considering Red date and going with MZero date.
B. Sultan admittedly says MZero date was done because of signup topic jokes. Doesn't ever leave it. Does his silly reaction test at end of day when there was zero chance of MZero coming in to breakup.
C. His intuition that something was wrong with the early pairs, and specifically honing in on me over Peaf (Reasonably explained that I was just more active than Peaf). Feels off to me. Could just be good intuition. Could be acting on some knowledge that there WAS something wrong with the early pair.

As long as Sultan is kept in the actual PoE and not given a free date by our confirmed townies, I'm fine with it. But make him get a date from one of the people we're suspicious of. And if it's just Chris/Sultan, then it's gonna look real bad for them when one of them flips scum.

Chris you may not agree with this, but I think if you're town you shouldn't date Sultan. Because if Sultan ever flips scum, it will be literally impossible for you to get me off your heels.

Not this again.

Mzero was a smart date for me I got a clear on a player who is sporadic if that isn't a good play to jump on and stay on eh fine. I was thinking about leaving it a few time but really why should I have? The people I had town read were already dating would have left for Lea, Lopen, Or you yesterday near end of day but we'll it didn't happen.

So sticking with Mzero worked out but it's fine.

What can I do for you here Dumey what you wanna know?

Does anyone happen to know offhand what Death's demeanour was like when matching with Chris? If scum has a role that only affects the date, they might figure out protection works that way as well. Since Chris is always a good N1 target.

Oh you're still on that one. Yeah I dunno

I think C can be done without being informed (I felt the same way) and B was basically what you and Peaf did so it feels odd for you to call out on it.

And I still don't feel A had a lot of weight in terms of Sultan's actual gameplan. He said it wasn't a joke post but I do feel like him feeling compelled to post was a joke phase like energy

I just think there should be more at this stage. All your pings are very early game stuff aside from the Mzero reaction test (which is imo NAI-- Sultan does that kinda stuff as either alignment)

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Not this again.

Mzero was a smart date for me I got a clear on a player who is sporadic if that isn't a good play to jump on and stay on eh fine. I was thinking about leaving it a few time but really why should I have? The people I had town read were already dating would have left for Lea, Lopen, Or you yesterday near end of day but we'll it didn't happen.

So sticking with Mzero worked out but it's fine.

What can I do for you here Dumey what you wanna know?

What do you mean you got a clear?

Enchantress posted...

Does anyone happen to know offhand what Death's demeanour was like when matching with Chris? If scum has a role that only affects the date, they might figure out protection works that way as well. Since Chris is always a good N1 target.

Hard to tell. Death was very particular about his date and didn't really entertain a lot of options. But that just felt like standard Death to me because he always holds his vote to the very end.

EDumey posted...

What do you mean you got a clear?

I got Mzero as A town lock essentially

The hot hand thinks we just purge Dumey and/or Kirby

We go back to the old Razor and the only way Peaf breaking from Dumey makes sense is if other scum were involved at a critical point in the transaction

If it's town Kirby and town Dumey Peaf just... goes to work, like he said he was.

It makes no sense otherwise.

This is my official stance on the day. I think seeing Lea continue with Dumey reinvigorated me.

EDumey posted...

What do you mean you got a clear?

I think he's talking about his read on MZero? He said this last night:

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I think Mzero is Town. Idk what his thoughts are on me. We seemed to be on the same page.

I asked for more information

Forceful_Dragon posted...

You didn't even clarify who was in the town core, just that you had one. Is it the same people lopen said? In one of your first posts you said you think MZero is town, but not why you think MZero is town. Was it something he said during your date? Can you post receipts?

But all I got back was

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Also town core

Lea
Dumey
Lopen
Mzero

So yeah I'd love to hear more about the MZero town clear.

My dear beloved Lopen turned, viciously turned on me. Used me up and cast me out for being too submissive. Oh, what a cruel cruel world love is. Once I felt on top of the world, saving town, killing scum, smokin' sick stylin'. Had such theories. All for naught.

Does anyone want to date me, specifically? Or just in a "a town read is a town read, any port in a storm" way? I'll probably wait until the last minute again, that was the funnest part of the game. Currently I have no strong scum reads, I'm accepting date pitches.

JC is also an option if you want Spice

FD and me don't enter the calculation as we weren't in the pool when he broke off
Lea doesn't either because Lea is never at any real risk

I wasn't a big fan of jc but death was

Mzero and I didnt get to talk to to much but the way we communicated it seemed super genuine. Mzero could have easily just been avoiding some talks. Mzero read as town and not scum. I might be overly optimistic on it but scum wouldn't have been so forth coming I don't think.

Call it a soul read?

Big thing that weirded me out about JC is he claimed vanilla like right away when he broke up

Almost like he wanted to get that claim out of the way when it was less sus

Also I think if the pool is Kirby JC Lea

JC almost certainly dies

If you look at the pool at that point the play is Peaf is playing to save JC

And the Kirby vote was just a misdirect?

Meanwhile JC didn't get the memo and paired with Dumey instead?

Here's the mindset

Kirby JC Lea (Lea is dating Kirby probably and JC dies-- this is when Peaf jumped off)
Kirby JC Lea Dumey Peaf (now JC can take the Peaf life vest and Dumey or Kirby die)

Then you threw Kurt Angle into the mix when FD and I broke up and the chaos ate Peaf

Let's kill JC

Lopen posted...

Also I think if the pool is Kirby JC Lea

JC almost certainly dies

If you look at the pool at that point the play is Peaf is playing to save JC

Then why would JC agree to be the first pair to split? Putting himself at risk when there was no guarantee that anyone else would follow is just as illogical as Peaf splitting from Dumey

By Kirby "vote" i of course mean Kirby "date attempt" or whatever.

Newfangled mafia variant terms

I like JC a lot for being willing to open up our relationship. Like all relationships it worked out great. It would have to be exactly Peaf Kirby JC and that's just an unlikely lemmings jumping into a woodchipper like they do in nature

Dumey, were you afraid at all that you could have been the one shanked yesterday? Sorry if you addressed this in your big reply to me, I'm on an air o plane

Lopen posted...

The hot hand thinks we just purge Dumey and/or Kirby

We go back to the old Razor and the only way Peaf breaking from Dumey makes sense is if other scum were involved at a critical point in the transaction

If it's town Kirby and town Dumey Peaf just... goes to work, like he said he was.

It makes no sense otherwise.

This is my official stance on the day. I think seeing Lea continue with Dumey reinvigorated me.

Call me self motivated, but I think trying to "resolve" D1 when there's a solid chance that either Peaf was lone scum doing something dumb for town cred, or even the Lea/Peaf theory I gave earlier, shows that there's way too many variables to really gain closure on that.

Much rather look at a standard PoE than try to get cute with it.

Kirby321 posted...

Then why would JC agree to be the first pair to split? Putting himself at risk when there was no guarantee that anyone else would follow is just as illogical as Peaf splitting from Dumey

He and Peaf would be on a scumboard at this point. Who knows what the scum would be scheming.

I mean no matter what Peaf's actions in an all town situation make zero sense. I think you need to assume scum exists there be it in Dumey Kirby or JC

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red already explained why JC/Dumey/Peaf cannot be a trio with 2+ scum in it.

Can you walk it by me.

EDumey posted...

Peaf was lone scum doing something dumb for town cred

Peaf was BUSY

I don't feel like it makes any sense with the amount of activity Peaf had and what he claimed (and why lie) was happening. It's so easy to just peace out if you have no vested interest in the result.

It probably is just Kirby

Enchantress posted...

Dumey, were you afraid at all that you could have been the one shanked yesterday? Sorry if you addressed this in your big reply to me, I'm on an air o plane

Yes. I think you can see this when I made a post saying I was okay with dating Lea/Lopen/JC and then reached out a second date to you.

Like Peaf was putting EFFORT into a game where he was fairly passive and said he had things he needed to do

As scum. With "town" on the chopping block and being locked in a relationship with "town"

It makes zero sense. It's probably not Dumey and JC. It could be Dumey or JC and Kirby

Lopen posted...

Here's the mindset

Kirby JC Lea (Lea is dating Kirby probably and JC dies-- this is when Peaf jumped off)
Kirby JC Lea Dumey Peaf (now JC can take the Peaf life vest and Dumey or Kirby die)

Then you threw Kurt Angle into the mix when FD and I broke up and the chaos ate Peaf

Let's kill JC

Not sure why you wouldn't just apply this exact argument to Lea instead. JC was the one with a date setup with Kirby and Lea was left stranded.

EDumey posted...

Yes. I think you can see this when I made a post saying I was okay with dating Lea/Lopen/JC and then reached out a second date to you.

I meant before you did the breakup command. I understand saving town reads over neutrals, I agree with the strategy. But I know I would be fine. Did you?

Lopen posted...

Peaf was BUSY

I don't feel like it makes any sense with the amount of activity Peaf had and what he claimed (and why lie) was happening. It's so easy to just peace out if you have no vested interest in the result.

It probably is just Kirby

But Kirby was already being saved. I mean I agree whatever the motive it was a punt, but there was no need to save Kirby from him.

Lea is unkillable and wouldn't need Peaf to play hero

Lopen baby if I were scum I would have just stayed shacked up with my girl Lea

Lopen posted...

Like Peaf was putting EFFORT into a game where he was fairly passive and said he had things he needed to do

As scum. With "town" on the chopping block and being locked in a relationship with "town"

It makes zero sense. It's probably not Dumey and JC. It could be Dumey or JC and Kirby

I feel like I remember at least 2 games before (one for sure Paper Mario mafia?) where Peaf got town cleared doing some selfless act at crunching like not breaking a tiebreaker, and rode that clear for the rest of the game. I don't think it's out of his wheelhouse to try and get town cred if he thought he could get away with it.

Wouldn't JC have just as much reason as Peaf to not go along with the mutual breakup if scum though?

The only thing that resembles sense is that scum had already accepted they were going to lose someone (Kirby) and figured "everyone just jump back into the pool, we might pick up some town clears for shaking things up!"

Making lemons out of lemonade.

But Kirby wasn't drafting a message to pair up with JC or Dumey, he was drafting a message to pair with Lea.

Enchantress posted...

I meant before you did the breakup command. I understand saving town reads over neutrals, I agree with the strategy. But I know I would be fine. Did you?

Genuinely thought you were gonna date me. Didn't think I was putting myself at too much risk.

Chaeix posted...

Lopen baby if I were scum I would have just stayed shacked up with my girl Lea

The chain is

You attempt to save Kirby
Plan is aborted because killing Lea seems terrible
Peaf decides to play the shell game

Ultimately you need to have some reason for scum peaf to care to unpair. He doesn't just kill himself

That's why Kirby is probably scum. Figuring out the other scum is tricky but it's probably you Dumey or Lea

Lopen are you currently arguing that ALL THREE scum were part of the scuffle at end of day?

It's possible and I appreciate you looking at the angle, I'm just not buying it. I think Peaf acted on his own, or he made a play to save Lea or Kirby.

All three is crazy (though FD did bring it up as a crackpot theory earlier as well.)

Forceful_Dragon posted...

But Kirby wasn't drafting a message to pair up with JC or Dumey, he was drafting a message to pair with Lea.

I could buy Kirby Peaf Lea being it.

EDumey posted...

Call me self motivated, but I think trying to "resolve" D1 when there's a solid chance that either Peaf was lone scum doing something dumb for town cred, or even the Lea/Peaf theory I gave earlier, shows that there's way too many variables to really gain closure on that.

Much rather look at a standard PoE than try to get cute with it.

I completely agree. Let's not forget scum Peaf literally broke up with Dumey, sent a date request, and openly and explicitly peace out with "I'm not gonna be around for EoD." Peaf 100% expected me to accept the request, otherwise his goose was thoroughly cooked.

The only realm that ever makes sense in is that I'm scum and for whatever reason turned down Peaf's branch to save me. There's no other explanation beside that if we're looking at this purely logically.

But I'm town, so that obviously can't be true. Therefore, the explanation is that Peaf really made a highly illogical play, and it's difficult to get any analytical value out of that if we're focused solely on Peaf's actions and not how people reacted to it at the time.