Lurker > Lopen

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Corrik and Lopen both feel like players trying to over justify the votes that they have made/are sticking to. If Ben flips town I feel like Corrik has to be scum. Same with Lea and Lopen. Maybe it's just me getting inside my own head, but I am starting to feel like Ben and Lea both made really stupid town plays. Someone(lopen I think) was saying that they are going so far past why would scum do this to why would town do this. I have seen Ben make the masons play twice before and he got burned really bad the second time. He might be banking on that to do it a time as scum, but it's something i have only seen him do as town. Lea"s is a little more wtf, but I am afraid that it's too easy right now.

Based on what? Other than both of us having you on our scum lists, anyway.
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I heard Chris isn't terrible as scum either and here we are

People saying "this isn't like scum ___" because they're not playing the game well don't know what they're talking about. Different scum players adapt to different situations better than others. This could be "scum Ben who doesn't have enough time to try to be a town leader and tried a wacky strategy that isn't going to work"

Everyone has good and bad games. Some people are better as scum than others but even the best scum player can have a bad game. You need to analyze things in terms of "what the town motive is" here, not "he couldn't possibly play this poorly as scum" because you don't know that.
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Also I'd say chances of Scare being scum seem low when looking at the lynches today. If people actually bite on Scare the game is basically over since I don't feel Ben or Lea get enough town cred from it to avoid a lynch.

Then again the whole strategy of Ben has been "scum would not do such a thing" so maybe Scare being the last scum would be as expected. I dunno.

Scum
8. Lea (Leanansidhe)
1. Ben (benjamin3740)
4. FD (Forceful_Dragon)
7. IGCD (IfGodCouldDie)

2. Blade (Meow1000) / Scare (ScareChan)

5. Gravy (greengravy294)
10. MZero (MZero11)
6. HB (Hbthebattle)
11. SBell (Obellisk) / Firebolt (fire_bolt)
3. Corrik (Corrik7)
Town

This is how I see the game currently. Descending order of scumminess. Town leans on bottom half scum on top. Obviously there is a lot of game left but that's how I see it currently.
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I felt FD tried to get Chris lynched before Lea yesterday despite them both being scum based off not much. If Lea actually is a more valuable role than Chris it does not look good for FD.
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I don't see a reason to hammer. Especially considering my chances of being killed tonight are non negligible

Lea is probably a better lynch unless you think both are scum and she's a used strongman which you should only believe if you think FD is scum. I'd currently put Lea as very slightly higher chance to be scum than Ben, though they're both close enough to 100% that I'm not too worried

Lea + FD has some decent scumbuddy potential though all things considered. Don't really buy FD missed her being called she all the time in this game-- feels like a faked thing for people to look at when Lea is dead and say "well if they were scumbuddies FD would know better!!" FD also pushed Chris as the likely more valuable scum role based on what I felt was a bunch of neutral. Granted this only applies if Lea actually is the more valuable scum role. But if she's assassin for example it would definitely be more valuable than roleblocker.
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They just love to have fun out there, King

It's impossible to believe. Chris saying something is fun doesn't just spontaneously make it fun. You either have that mindset going in or you don't. You don't get 'convinced' something is fun
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benjamin3740 posted...

I caught up.

It was like less than one topic wasnt it?

It's not about whether you caught up it's about whether you cared about catching up.

Someone does not simultaneously care about catching up and want to immediately end the day. Those goals are at odds with one another.
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Not using assassinate before Night 3 is only risky if it's an extra kill. Even then it's not 'absurdly' risky in the hands of a skilled scum

Who cares scare is doctor or not though. Seems like a poor reason to lynch him
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Why would scum use an assassination before night 3

Chris was scum. Use it on a power role instead like the roles intended.
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Corrik7 posted...

She was unsure of the lynch and asked us not to hammer

You're projecting that she was unsure of the lynch. She's not even claiming she was unsure of the lynch right now.

She asked us not to hammer, yes, because the previous day had been hammered. It's a simple "I'm being pro-town yay let's keep the day moving guyz~" move not some sort of organic doubt in your fakeclaim.
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Leanansidhe posted...

Before I got involved the day was super boring. I fixed it.

How was the day boring. The Sultan vs Chris lynch debate was actually pretty interesting.
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How is that "good" to come up with on the fly. It got her exposed lol.
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Corrik7 posted...

You are saying scum purposely fake claimed on Sultan of all people to lynch him even though when he flips they were clearly going to be found out as having fake claimed because they didn't know where he actually went?

Lea read Sultan was likely SK due to his reaction "did you see something?" and went in on it.

Lea assumed he went to Chris due to one kill + Chris being obvious doc save, and because town bulletproof being in the game + Sultan shooting it seems unlikely.

Not that weird.
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Corrik7 posted...

I don't think Chris really needed assistance to lynch Sultan. And, Lea clearly wasn't fake a scan meant to be in actuality super serious

I do. Chris had many people calling BS on his claim and saying to lynch him. You play that day out and I'm pretty sure Chris is lynched no problem.

And I don't see any reason why Lea's scan wasn't serious.
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Corrik7 posted...

The fact Lea asked us not to hammer makes me think she was hella unsure of the lynch. Which town would be.

And scum faking wanting to keep the day going for SOLVING TIME and avoid two early hammers would also be.
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Faking a scan for information as town, not going back on it when the guy claims doctor and that he claimed a target that wasn't what you're faking, and faking it to come to the defense of a guy you were trying to get lynched earlier in the day is very hard to believe.
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The question you need to ask yourself is why does town Lea, who had during the day been suspecting Chris, get involved there? There's really no good reason for it. "It would be stupid for scum to make this move" only works as a defense if "I could see town making this move and it being consistent with their play" is also present.
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Corrik7 posted...

4 man scum team wouldn't assume SK.

Why not?

4/17 is weak. They could likely determine from the power of their own roles whether there was an anti-town role in there.
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Leanansidhe posted...

An Untargetable SK is exceedingly rarer

If you assume SK is in the game, as a 4 man scum team likely would, untargetable isn't a very rare benefit for SK to have
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Corrik7 posted...

Which means either red and Chris both hit no one that is town power, or they blocked or hit untargetable themselves. Chris felt "safe" to claim he was roleblocked also. Meaning Chris targeted sultan or red targeted chris night 1.

This is also a good point

Chris definitely doesn't risk claiming roleblocked if his action went through, because the risk of the town he targeted countering roleblocked seems an unnecessary risk
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Leanansidhe posted...

Town Jailkeeper/Roleblocker is plenty common. You're starting to really reach to justify your pet theory.

Not really. They're not super uncommon but they're not anything I'd expect to see. Especially if my scumteam only has 4. Untargetable SK definitely seems like the more natural thought.

Also keep in mind even if those roles exist in the game they need to be accurate as well, which is another assumption you need to make.
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MZero11 posted...

Wouldn't that apply to him being a good Roleblock target too?

In which case they don't know how many times Chris was blocked

I don't think double block is vital to figure it out as I think town RB and town jailkeeper are rare enough that they wouldn't assume it by default

When you throw in the possibility that they very well could have been double blocked it becomes even more likely though
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Er 4 man scumteam in 17.
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MZero11 posted...

Sure but Sultan could have been town untargetable. Or town could have a RB and a JK.

Regardless it's a huge risk when they look awful if he flips town, and they probably could have lynched him without gambitting anyway cause it's Sultan.

I mean worst case scenario is Chris chaos lynches a town and is lynched the next day. It's not really a play that has a ton of downside because I was not making up the idea that Chris fears being policy lynched based on his reaction to Plum last game. Especially if scum has an assassin like I expect they did (since Brohan died).

But I think if you think a 4 man scumteam in 13 isn't automatically gravitating towards SK with their thought processes you're not trying hard enough to think like scum.
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Also probably the biggest hint that scum knew Sultan was untargetable SK was Chris's original fakeclaim actually could detect untargetable SK, so if town buys it Chris has no suspicions. That's too big a coincidence to ignore I think.

And I would say no one had power tells day 1 so if scum has some sorta rolecop Sultan is a great target as if you're sure he's not power he's an easy fallguy lynch later because I mean, yeah, it's Sultan.
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greengravy294 posted...

Lopen do you think scum was given a watcher?

Unlikely. I don't know why it matters anyway? Why are you fixated on that?
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MZero11 posted...

How would they know Sultan was SK?

4 man scumteam
One of the scum roles targeted Sultan and were roleblocked
Red likely blocks Chris as well, so scumteam registers as double blocked

Pretty easy to figure out at that point. A ton of context clues. Even without Red blocking Chris I think it's obvious for them because who expects a town roleblocker in the setup.
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Also keep in mind that the last scum is probably godfather and you know godffathers solo towns so I mean, whatever. It ain't over till the last scum is lynched, right. Suiciding 3 ain't no thang.
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Also keep in mind that scum didn't really suicide. Ben arguably is the only one that suicided, and he had murmuring against him before the dumb Mason claim anyway so you could argue he was already on borrowed time. But the other two...

Chris made a fakeclaim that didn't go well due to town not really wanting to just blindly follow the cop, but it was a calculated risk to get rid of a known SK.

Lea made a fakeclaim that would have been fine if town bulletproof was not in the game and targeted, and Sultan claiming his actual target, as well as the game having a watcher. Scumteam likely knew there was SK as they are likely only 4 strong (5 scum+SK seems imbalanced). Scumteam probably guessed that Chris was attacked by the SK because Doc autosaves Chris and only one kill.

I just think it was a bad luck, really.
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I think either one is fine.

I just think when defending Ben "too stupid to do as scum" should be off the table at this point. He's passed so far beyond that you really need to be saying "why does town do this" instead when trying to digest his actions.

Like I don't think Ben could possibly be more scummy short of outright claiming his actual scum role right now if you discard the idea that "scum would not be so stupid as to do this"
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Hbthebattle posted...

It just seems so stupid of scum to entangle what must be the majority of their team in one pile of gambits.

This is literally the point, for Ben.
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Moreso than dumb or smart it's a simple manner of having some degree of humility. No town who doesn't read the game is going to attempt to derail it that hard on their gut read from speedreading 3 hours of day 1. They're probably going to defer to the wisdom of the crowd until they get a better feel for the game. See: the fire_bolt approach.

Keep in mind Ben had suspicion before that too-- I believe it was a desperation ploy to make him appear too stupid to be scum at that point. Unfortunately at that point it passes beyond so far beyond "why would scum do this it's stupid" it actually becomes a stronger argument for "why would town do this" because the motivation for scum becomes a possible WIFOM play and town just has no reason to make that play at all.
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I feel like a town member who self-admittedly didn't even read most of the game isn't going to go so far as to make a fakeclaim to clear their gut read

I don't have a lot of respect for Ben's play but it would be outrageously poor form.
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Leanansidhe posted...

is the case on Ben really "THE GOVERNOR LADY IS SENDING IN MORE TRAINS" as a scum strategy?

Less that Ben's play is to be wifom idiot scum in and of itself and more that his wifom idiot scumminess feels like being wacky for the sake of being wacky

His defense of Chris was very lazy yesterday, and Chris had multiple people arguing to lynch him for good reasons.
His hammer day one made no sense considering his posts leading up to it.

Like I could buy a town member doing these things, but it doesn't paint a consistent character with Ben. Why would he be so convinced Chris was town so as to make a masonry claim with him when he couldn't really defend him being town other than doing an RNG Corrik town read of Chris? Why would he want to hammer early day 1 when he was trying to catch up with the day?
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Hbthebattle posted...

Would scum ever willingly claim masons with another scum, especially one as doomed as Chris was yesterday?

Ben's entire game has been this

I think the masonry claim was him taking this maneuver one step too far to the point of it being obviously a "scum would not be so stupid as to do that" play
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Brohan was a great scum hunter and a stand up guy
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I saved Brogan last night but he died anyway

It's because you assassinated him
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He might be the DEER Deer Jack, DEER Jack
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Nuh uh it said DEER Deer King in my PM
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Fire_Bolt did you backread anything overnight btw or are you just gonna play it loose the whole game.
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Why would I lie
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DEER King triple vig doc

Which is why I knew Chris's vig claim was bs. I'm going to start shooting tonight btw. Ben first. If Lea flips assassin probably FD second.
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I claimed doctor d2 as well.
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I mean if you wanna talk I can't stop you I'm not a daysilencer.
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Nah. There was enough pushback on Chris that I think he would've been lynched day 2 if not for you.

What's more there was no motive to make that move as town, and it doesn't fit your town playstyle that I've seen in your games so far, nor did it fit your read on Chris, or your read on Sultan.

Scum the motive is to be sure the untargetable SK flips before the roleblocker flips to make him that much harder to lynch since you guys can't kill him. Pretty straightforward.
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The Boot of the Emperor
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Leon officially more deserving of the title of robbed 2018 than Basch
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The gambit to remove the pillar of scumhunting Sultan required two. You must now pay for your part, o' watcher fake.
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I'm sorry for your ailment. Now perish, fallen knight, alongside your impure king.

##Vote: Lea
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Didn't fire_bolt replace SBell
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