Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 441: Containing Politics Whether it Likes it or Not

(+) Yeah! (+)

Shes gonna win Georgia. I keep seeing so many metrics that say shes got it.

How long before Trump 'truths' he hates SNL?

Dancedreamer posted...

How long before Trump 'truths' he hates SNL?

Keep checking Hung Cao's twitter page for Trump's thoughts before he makes them.

Coming back to this real quick after just more blanket dismissing it earlier.

Suprak_the_Stud posted...

Is Emerson a good pollster any longer? I happened to check the Iowa polling due to Selzer and I see Emerson just released a +9 for Trump in Iowa from the same time frame.

So it turns out Emerson did not openly disclose that this poll was commissioned yesterday afternoon by Real Clear Politics (yes, the aggregator commissioned the poll), who then asked them to speed poll over a single day so they could have a poll to release this afternoon.

The leaf reading here is that insiders knew this poll was coming and the rightwing junkers pushed together to try and reverse the narrative. Also explains why Rass and Atlas chose tonight to do a full swing state pushout too, all coordination. I should make clear that Emmerson themselves is not necessarily a right wing pollster....they just got paid to do it by a right wing aggregator.

Unfortunately they heavily underestimated the impact the Selzer poll would have. They never stood a chance.

RCP has also moved New Hampshire and Minnesota to tossups. They're just not even trying to pretend anymore.

lol another surprise special guest tonight on SNL.

https://twitter.com/nbcsnl/status/1852924978737418539?t=02T-KborlgGX0xkBCGWl4g&s=19

Damn that's good. Though most people it's skewering will just think it's a joke about Kaine being unmemorable.

I mean it's definitely also that since the show also doesn't know his name. But the bit in general also goes well past him.

That said kudos to him for playing along with that. Great stuff.

I will never forget his name because his donation request ads are inexplicably the most consistent ads on my timeline for 3 months now.

"We didn't quite make our donation goal"

Tim, you're polling 10 points ahead and you're opponent is a psycho everyone hates. I think you're good.

Happy daylight savings time

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/4/4420752b.jpg

foolm0r0n posted...

Fluoride levels are uncontroversially dangerous in many places. The US halved the recommended levels not even 10 years ago due to new research, and more studies frequently come out.
https://apnews.com/article/fluoride-water-brain-neurology-iq-0a671d2de3b386947e2bd5a661f437a5

RFK doesn't and can't know anything about it, but if you think it's settled science, then you have similar brainrot.

It's a bit much to call ignorance of this specific subject "brainrot."

kevwaffles posted...

I don't know when it happened, but Australia has surpassed us in the "comedy news" department.

https://x.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/1852723898007384181

That's just a regular news station?!? They hold no punches.

My CA ballot has 22 ballot measures this year (10 state, 12 local)

Direct democracy was a mistake

Seanchan posted...

That's just a regular news station?!? They hold no punches.

From what I gathered it's a comedic segment on a regular news station.

kevwaffles posted...

From what I gathered it's a comedic segment on a regular news station.

It's a comedic segment from a well-known(?) satirist on the most popular news station.

LordoftheMorons posted...

My CA ballot has 22 ballot measures this year (10 state, 12 local)

Direct democracy was a mistake

Are these all on one piece of paper or do you get multiple ballots?

paperwarior posted...

It's a bit much to call ignorance of this specific subject "brainrot."

It's more about the confidence in it being settled science. I know everyone can't be well versed in every topic, but in that case, you should not act so confident about it.

foolm0r0n posted...

It's more about the confidence in it being settled science. I know everyone can't be well versed in every topic, but in that case, you should not act so confident about it.

I 100% agree with foolmo on this

Just thought I'd jump on that opportunity cause it doesn't come up much

LightningStrikes posted...

Are these all on one piece of paper or do you get multiple ballots?

Its probably like 8 pages or something between all of the races and ballot propositions (with stuff on the back of some pages)

We are two days away.

Oh shit.

I nominate the next thread be called

Politics Containment Topic 442: Election Day Boogaloo

Someone's gotta have a Sel(t)zer pun or something

UshiromiyaEva posted...

lol another surprise special guest tonight on SNL.

https://twitter.com/nbcsnl/status/1852924978737418539?t=02T-KborlgGX0xkBCGWl4g&s=19

Not nearly the same without Bill Hader.

wallmasterz posted...

We are two days away.

Oh shit.

I nominate the next thread be called

Politics Containment Topic 442: Election Day Boogaloo

I dont know if the next topic will pace itself slowly enough to reach Election day.

Oh it won't. Donny will do something stupid tomorrow.

Topic 442: Election Day terrorism, 18 confirmed dead so far

MAGA: The Selzer poll is FAKE and nobody cares!

Rep Politicians: The Selzer poll is FAKE and nobody cares!

Rep Pollsters; The Selzer Poll is FAKE and nobody cares!

Trump:https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/2/21b10b94.jpg

Harris campaign may have done more door knocks yesterday in PA alone that Trump has done across every battleground state this entire election cycle.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/c/cf77fa97.jpg

UshiromiyaEva posted...

MAGA: The Selzer poll is FAKE and nobody cares!

Rep Politicians: The Selzer poll is FAKE and nobody cares!

Rep Pollsters; The Selzer Poll is FAKE and nobody cares!

Trump:https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/2/21b10b94.jpg

So he lost Iowa in 2020? News to me.

Next topic absolutely has to be called I love the farmers, and they love me.

MAGA on Twitter is currently throwing around the FIRST Selzer poll from the last election showing it tied to claim she was way off last time through gaslighting, pretending her final +7 Trump poll doesn't exist. It looks like Trump fell for it himself lol.

More evidence that his campaign decisions are being poisoned by his own grifters.

It takes a lot of discipline to be able to grift without believing it yourself. It seems like Trump was able to do that in the past, but now he's way too susceptible.

This is also why it's not actually good to surround yourself with sycophants. I'm sure Bannon et al kept Trump very grounded among all the grifts, but he doesn't have that anymore.

https://twitter.com/MikeSington/status/1853086584540659922?t=iJ5qA3JcMRPFI8JLZCY0qg&s=19

The real time realization that maybe this was not the best retaliatory messaging.

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1853091965505515683?t=pbG354lN6DhSkOH7MY3RTA&s=19

UshiromiyaEva posted...

The real time realization that maybe this was not the best retaliatory messaging.

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1853091965505515683?t=pbG354lN6DhSkOH7MY3RTA&s=19

Turns out we underestimated Biden once again.

Seriously though I don't think it was calculated but they've imploded over this.

Edit: LOL that was not a purposeful typo I swear.

The outrage over garbage is so phone when you see how many times Trump has said the exact same, and even much worse.

Gotta love double standards

Im always estimating Biden.

kevwaffles posted...

Turns out we underestimated Biden once again.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/8/8d7623e8.jpg

https://www.wtrf.com/top-stories/ohio-sheriffs-lieutenant-in-hot-water-after-social-posts- i-am-sorry-if-you-support-the-democratic-party-i-will-not-help-you/

Another Ohio cop being a dirtbag, says he will only help people who voted for Trump, will not help democrats. this should be an immediately fireable offense. Imagine the outrage if a cop said this about Republicans. Also already blaming the Ambien. I've taken sleeping medication before, and mysteriously I've never said anything horrible or awful while on it.

If you want more proof that Nate Silver's model has completely fallen apart (which franky has been an open secret since the DNC), take a look at his final numbers.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/d/db7a36e2.jpg

See if you can spot the problem lol.

Also wow they are just in FREEFALL narratively.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1853105007505088618?t=TChyJH3rFcCwdpnrQaVcEQ&s=19

The NYT polls this morning were just more herding tie whimpers that nobody pays attention to anymore, are they claiming every poll that doesn't show them outright winning is now fake?? More evidence that the Rasmussen Atlas power hour was literally a campaign event that they planned to be an ending statement.

I guess THEORETICALLY the cross-tabs showing undecided breaking for Harris across the board could be what they're complaining about??

UshiromiyaEva posted...

See if you can spot the problem lol.

If you mean the discrepancy in electoral % vs # then that's not a problem, because those are differently calculated means. It's expected even.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

If you want more proof that Nate Silver's model has completely fallen apart (which franky has been an open secret since the DNC), take a look at his final numbers.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/d/db7a36e2.jpg

See if you can spot the problem lol.

Also wow they are just in FREEFALL narratively.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1853105007505088618?t=TChyJH3rFcCwdpnrQaVcEQ&s=19

The NYT polls this morning were just more herding tie whimpers that nobody pays attention to anymore, are they claiming every poll that doesn't show them outright winning is now fake?? More evidence that the Rasmussen Atlas power hour was literally a campaign event that they planned to be an ending statement.

I guess THEORETICALLY the cross-tabs showing undecided breaking for Harris across the board could be what they're complaining about??

What's the problem? Expected value of electoral votes weighs each potential outcome by both the probability and number of EVs. So this means he thinks Harris is more likely to have a blowout win, while Trump is more likely to win a close one (in the EC).

I don't agree with that and think it's the other way around if anything. But we'll see.

Lopen posted...

I 100% agree with foolmo on this

Just thought I'd jump on that opportunity cause it doesn't come up much

Why though? Is it brainrotted to believe something based on what you pick up from the environment before even being told you're wrong? What was actually said that was too confident? Of course you're not supposed to fight for something when you know you're wrong, but if you don't know you're wrong should you always doubt yourself and express that you don't know anything at all because you haven't kept up with the scientific research?

This is truly something to behold. Trump is imploding in PA live right now. He has lost all confidence. He knows he's going to lose.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1853110697602752989?t=cMc_EJoBfv-K8uBaYfzN_A&s=19

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1853110726518579383?t=k3rqkGLsilIefYikxUbw_g&s=19

Looking at 538's polling aggregations (which is no longer run by Nate Silver), looking only at who is currently ahead in their state-by-state polling aggregations, currently Trump is at 287 and Harris is at 251. PA is currently at R+0.3 in their polling aggregation, and if you flip that it becomes Harris 270, Trump 268.

The polling in the Sunbelt states is quite strong for Trump so I think of his 268 as relatively safe. The Midwest appears to be breaking late for Harris. For whatever reason, it's not showing up in the polling data for PA, although you would think it would given how well PA correlates to the MI and WI.

Overall 50/50 and PA 50/50 feel pretty reasonable to me. I guess Nate Silver thinks there's a decent chance of a Harris sweep across the Sunbelt to have her ahead in the EV of EVs (huh, EV stands for both expected value and electoral votes...).

It's literally just the 2 Atlas Intel poll dumps killing the models. They have Harris only +4 with women in PA and LOSING with black voters, which are absolute nonsense. 538 still grades them highly because of the 2020 lucky guess and it's killing their model.

Split Ticket ran the numbers this morning on what would happen if you remove the new Atlas poll from 538 and it gives Harris Pennsylvania in their model even WITHOUT removing the older Atlas polls.

He's. Losing. It. Selzer is HAUNTING this man.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1853111961904463922?t=iEtkegNuh67_gw_7oURNKA&s=19

He also just said he should have refused to step down in 2021, after his surrogates have spent WEEKS defending him saying "but he stepped down on January 20th and that's all that matters".

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1853112333217755165?t=LYiICFq7uLqPYPdP3xX_jw&s=19

Extended voting hours? What blatant election thievery! How dare they try and make it so more legal voters are able to vote! What a sham of an election!

Trump at least knows to take the Selzer poll seriously as a big deal, which is correct. Not that this makes up for his other faults, but there's a lot of leaders who wouldn't be able to do that in one day and would pretend it didn't happen or wasn't a big deal.

This is just incredible. An absolute meltdown right now. Like in all seriousness the public polling on the whole does not reflect this type of collapse, so their internals must know something we don't because this is going to be a landmark event if he loses. He's basically acting like he already lost.

red_sox_777 posted...

Trump at least knows to take the Selzer poll seriously as a big deal, which is correct. Not that this makes up for his other faults, but there's a lot of leaders who wouldn't be able to do that in one day and would pretend it didn't happen or wasn't a big deal.

You can just say Hillary lol