Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 441: Containing Politics Whether it Likes it or Not

(+) Yeah! (+)

paperwarior posted...

but if you don't know you're wrong should you always doubt yourself and express that you don't know anything at all because you haven't kept up with the scientific research?

For a scientific topic, yes pretty much. That is a high standard though. In this case, RFK has dozens of anti-science medical ideas, esp with anti-vax. But he chose to call out the anti-flouride thing instead. It's a sign that he's not actually advocating for science, but thoughtlessly following political narrative, i.e. brainrot.

Is there no kind of polling standards authority in the US? In many other places polling is well regulated, in the US it seems like you just have partisan pollsters fudging the numbers freely. I dont mean this as a burn on the US or anything but for literally the most polled place on the planet that is also the origin of polling, the polls seem really bad compared to other developed countries. Not that misses dont happen there too.

Dude, I know you're super worried, but seriously?

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1853119989638713489

Pollsters decide what to do on their own. The only regulation is reading the cross-tabs so people can review for details of how they got their results, but aggregators will very, very rarely throw out polls entirely even if they are 100% aware they are garbage, they just weight the poll as best they can. Cross tab diving is usually a fools errand to, especially since not every pollster is going to adjust based on their cross-tabs the same.

The high rating Atlas has because they only factor in their American results from one election, even though they've been off by 20+ points in ever single other election they've polled elsewhere including their home country of Brazil, is akin to aggregators being held at gunpoint.

On the Rasmussen side at least, they've banned their finding from their results at most reputable aggregators....other than RCP who loves them, and Nate Silver who refuses to remove them. All of which will probably apply to Atlas after this election cycle as well, but nobody is willing to remove a pollster mid-cycle no matter what they think of them.

I guess what it comes down to is polls can be very useful, but aggregators are honestly are becoming less and less meaningful as time goes on.

AuraChannelerCh posted...

Dude, I know you're super worried, but seriously?

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1853119989638713489

Welp, that's it for Trump's news cycle until Tuesday! He better hope Kamala runs over somebody with her car or something.

LightningStrikes posted...

In many other places polling is well regulated, in the US it seems like you just have partisan pollsters fudging the numbers freely.

Someone has to lead the bleeding edge so that you can follow with your regulations. It's a common theme in US-EU relations.

Dancedreamer posted...

Also already blaming the Ambien. I've taken sleeping medication before, and mysteriously I've never said anything horrible or awful while on it.

Well clearly you're not taking enough, lol

LightningStrikes posted...

Is there no kind of polling standards authority in the US? In many other places polling is well regulated, in the US it seems like you just have partisan pollsters fudging the numbers freely. I dont mean this as a burn on the US or anything but for literally the most polled place on the planet that is also the origin of polling, the polls seem really bad compared to other developed countries. Not that misses dont happen there too.

Didn't the Brexit polls miss by like 4 points? That's the same that the presidential 2020 missed by here and that was an very large miss.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Welp, that's it for Trump's news cycle until Tuesday! He better hope Kamala runs over somebody with her car or something.

News Media: "Trump says he hopes Press empathizes with him over shooting."

woke doctors are feeding our boys in blue racist ambien to make them look bad in the fake news media

foolm0r0n posted...

For a scientific topic, yes pretty much. That is a high standard though. In this case, RFK has dozens of anti-science medical ideas, esp with anti-vax. But he chose to call out the anti-flouride thing instead. It's a sign that he's not actually advocating for science, but thoughtlessly following political narrative, i.e. brainrot.

But RFK is full of shit when he says he wants to remove all the fluoride from water. There isn't a scientific consensus that says all fluoride should be removed from water. Simply not knowing that there are some scientific concerns about the amount of fluoride is not following any kind of "political narrative". It's barely even relevant to the subject of RFK. "Brainrot" gets thrown around but it's still a pretty serious accusation, and should require something beyond speaking in a confident tone.

sorry i guess there was too much fluoride in my water and i am lost

foolm0r0n posted...

For a scientific topic, yes pretty much. That is a high standard though.

For the record I don't think any actual scientist would agree with this take. The scientist would not say "nothing is certain", they would make it their goal to quantify precisely what they know and what they don't know and what their level of certainty is for those things.

Of course anyone (even another scientist) who doesn't actively research the subject in question probably doesn't have the information to do this successfully, so I don't know that we should ever expect to see this level of scrutiny in a GameFAQ's thread. And maybe in that case the correct response is just "I don't know", but I do think this is what the target should be broadly speaking.

Edit: Even in this context though a response of "I don't know, but the scientific consensus is X" is very defensible, I think

Edit 2: Actually reading again I'm not 100% sure I understood foolmo's intent correctly, but I'm leaving this up because I do believe this is correct regardless of whether or not it makes sense as a response

I think the polls in general get way more criticism than they deserve. They can't predict elections perfectly but no one ever claimed they could. 2016 drove a lot of this but neither Brexit nor Trump winning were surprising outcomes if you looked only at the polls and understood how the Electoral College works.

I remember people attacking Nate Silver on election day 2016 because he had Hillary at 70% to win instead of 98% like some people did. I don't understand how some people translated a 3 point advantage in the national polls to a 98% probability of winning (maybe by pretending the EC doesn't exist), but they were clearly wrong.

Trump is now complaining about the Iowa poll again.

He said Selzer should be arrested for releasing it.

arrested for giving trump a tummy ache

Interesting. Sounds like if there was a polling accreditation that would help. At least there are 538 grades but they STILL include some super dodgy pollsters in there.

HeroicCrono posted...

Didn't the Brexit polls miss by like 4 points? That's the same that the presidential 2020 missed by here and that was an very large miss.

This is actually a common misconception. In the last two weeks the polls were averaging exactly 50/50 with as many showing leave as showing remain, but conventional wisdom made people feel far to secure. There was the same day poll from YouGov (not a proper exit poll but similar) that was 52% Remain 48% Leave but it had a +/- 2% margin of error, which the actual result was within. So the polls were basically accurate. It was conventional wisdom that was wrong. In this case its similar to the US in 2016 where polls showed Hillary in danger but they were largely ignored because of conventional wisdom.

The time UK polls did miss was the 2015 election though. Polls had it neck and neck and it wound up being a 6% Tory lead. One pollster, Survation (the absolute gold standard) got it right but didnt publish it because it looked wrong. After which there was an inquiry by the British Polling Council and the polls have been broadly correct since (though individual pollsters have still mucked up see 2017). I guess my conclusion would be conventional wisdom is rubbish but polls usually arent.

LightningStrikes posted...

Is there no kind of polling standards authority in the US? In many other places polling is well regulated, in the US it seems like you just have partisan pollsters fudging the numbers freely. I dont mean this as a burn on the US or anything but for literally the most polled place on the planet that is also the origin of polling, the polls seem really bad compared to other developed countries. Not that misses dont happen there too.

In 2020 (I think) we had a poll run by like two high school students hit the aggregate.

it's the wild west out here baby

edit: maybe it was 2022. i actually think they were closer than most on NY Gov lol

Kelly, is that Kelly? Hi. It's Kelly.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1853132191187845524?t=gOn9gJrASiOJS8H3a3r4kw&s=19

pyresword posted...

Even in this context though a response of "I don't know, but the scientific consensus is X" is very defensible, I think

Yeah that's what I mean. That's certainly the best I can do at least

ivysnow posted...

arrested for giving trump a tummy ache

https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1853123338463502732?t=hfx3zB9YrZvZ2pE9CNNruQ&s=19

LightningStrikes posted...

really bad compared to other developed countries.

America's tagline

Selzer's House Polls are out!

https://twitter.com/ThePoliticalHQ/status/1853037371148652648?t=2m-b1cMY1Pi5If-A8rNWUw&s=19

LMFAO

All 4 of these were supposed to be lean to safe R in all the aggregators. Hose odds about to go wild.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/5/59cc4875.jpg

kevwaffles posted...

Oh it won't. Donny will do something stupid tomorrow.

I was too generous

I cant wait til the news is no longer about Trump. The sooner hes forgotten the better

https://twitter.com/KrangTNelson/status/1853151762359976091?t=aVkVu-9gJbzoXoCW6EK7bQ&s=19

https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state

UltimaterializerX posted...

ONE poll matters. One. Election Day. Go vote.

I think ~75 million have already voted (via early voting or mail in voting), which is probably like 40-45% of the total votes.

But yeah, I agree with the sentiment.

swordz9 posted...

I cant wait til the news is no longer about Trump. The sooner hes forgotten the better

Hope we don't have to deal with him in 2028

For President we sure wont if he loses 2024. Hell probably be in a nursing home drooling all over himself by then as much as hes deteriorating now

Look at the last line here. I fucking new this was gonna happen. His campaign is so DUMB.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/9/9b52045f.png

swordz9 posted...

For President we sure wont if he loses 2024. Hell probably be in a nursing home drooling all over himself by then as much as hes deteriorating now

If it's a close loss then the Rs will still hold on to Trumpism for many years to come. It's worked too well in congress/state/local elections to ditch just because Trump lost by a bit. It needs to be a devastating defeat at all levels to get rid of him.

What an embarrassing spin attempt, the incompetency of this campaign is unreal.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1afb51f7.jpg

I dont know if it matters how much Trump loses by, his cult will buy into his false claims of election fraud and will just assume there was major cheating

Corrik7 posted...

https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state

based central limit theorem

RaidenGarai posted...

I dont know if it matters how much Trump loses by, his cult will buy into his false claims of election fraud and will just assume there was major cheating

It does.

If his cult is too small, the Republicans will lose all interest in chasing them. If they can't win them elections, they'll push them off the cliff.

I think if there is a big Harris win then there is less pressure on individual officials to cave in to the Republicans at the least

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Look at the last line here. I fucking new this was gonna happen. His campaign is so DUMB.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/9/9b52045f.png

Biden still playing 10D Chess.

You are his LAWYER how can you be THIS STUPID??

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1853166898512335240?t=VZGoas2v1YAqFZe2OqwfFA&s=19

UshiromiyaEva posted...

You are his LAWYER how can you be THIS STUPID??

I didn't watch the clip, but I'm guessing she wants to see the list, but not publicize it maybe?

UshiromiyaEva posted...

You are his LAWYER how can you be THIS STUPID??

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1853166898512335240?t=VZGoas2v1YAqFZe2OqwfFA&s=19

Is this the dumb broad with the ASUS gaming laptop in the court photo? Does she expect Kamala to be on that list?

Maybe she emphasized the island list because supposedly Trump never went to the island. The records show he mostly had his appointments in NYC. And he did go on the airplane many times, but not to the island.

https://www.twitch.tv/zackrawrr/clip/SuspiciousKindDuckNotATK-EWfbVr5DeW5Ffzl2

Asmongold's Dad is actually based?

Forgets when the Steelers actually play, and now this:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1853182349653197210

The list, give us the list!

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1853180168363204757

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1853167761553309824

She's somehow dumber than Eustace Winner:

https://twitter.com/ElieNYC/status/1853179411949850912

And dumber:

https://twitter.com/andyroddick/status/1853173977335693394

"Ducktales did it badly! Only I can pull it off better!"

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1853175151967285383

paperwarior posted...

but if you don't know you're wrong should you always doubt yourself and express that you don't know anything at all because you haven't kept up with the scientific research?

Yes.

https://twitter.com/AccountableGOP/status/1853185845248815416?t=1AoW1ayPaAxqltQJvRnkRw&s=19

Back to the nursing home.