Board 8 > B8 NFL Survivor League: Week 1

(+) Yeah! (+)

my "really stupid" pick was either the Vikings or the Saints

so uh

yeah

Well, at the very least I won't feel dumb for swapping!

oh shit I'm late

uh

Lions

Well that was a solid afternoon for this Bostonian.

th3l3fty posted...

my "really stupid" pick was either the Vikings or the Saints

so uh

yeah

So two decent to high EV picks with good odds of winning

There's one really dumb week 1 result every year and this was it

That's three week 1 exits in a row for me. Really tried my best to pick an unlosable one this year too.

Yeah, I don't see myself doing this again. I was just picking blind based on what others are doing.

I really don't care about the NFL like I used to.

I'm going to wait until the afternoon game settle before re-arranging the sheet, but with having 29 users on the Bengals, we have 31 eliminations so far in Week 1 among our current 72 participants

Well shit, I had a good run

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Yeah, I don't see myself doing this again. I was just picking blind based on what others are doing.

I really don't care about the NFL like I used to.

Blind picking is basically what I do at this stage and I have lost in week 1 before. Its still kinda fun to just throw in guesses anyway because you never know.

I dont follow NFL that closely but I dont think its super needed anyway. Each week the spreads are enough to give a sense of who the favorites are. Early weeks are still toss ups but if you can last long enough to get to the part where you need to really consider what weeks to use certain teams, thats when it gets more fun. I dont think its worth trying to do a ton of planning in the early weeks too closely since we dont really know how good the teams are and theres too much variance.

Lions

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/a/a331ae17.png

And this is why I didn't want to pick the same game as everyone else.

Seahawks were apparently a very popular pick this week too (although not here) and they're currently losing to Denver at halftime

Seahawks only have one other potentially usable week all season, which is week 5.

But Giants/Seahawks games can get weird (COLT MCCOY) so I wanted to use them now.

oh shit I totally forgot uhhhh what's left

Rams/Lions and 49ers/Jets

Seahawks could be good enough this year to feel comfortable (or desperate) using them against the Cardinals or Vikings later. But the league will probably be over before the Vikings game and Cardinals have the potential to be good as well.

Ultimately the Saints felt just a bit too risky for me so that's why I went Seahawks. Didn't really consider any other teams this week.

It's generally good practice when the biggest favorite of the week isn't favored by much more than other teams, but is much more picked. Sometimes you have a 17+ point favorite available and you just take the free win regardless of popularity.

Xuxon posted...

Seahawks could be good enough this year to feel comfortable (or desperate) using them against the Cardinals or Vikings later. But the league will probably be over before the Vikings game and Cardinals have the potential to be good as well.

Ultimately the Saints felt just a bit too risky for me so that's why I went Seahawks. Didn't really consider any other teams this week.

I wanted Saints but had no clue if they could be trusted.

49ers were my "strongest" pick this week (my 16 is on the 49ers it's going to be a massacre). Bears have good value on week 5 (Seattle's only other viable week) and aren't a high caliber team either.

Ultimately this was just a good week to use Seattle because they had good odds, a low pick rate (at least here), and not a lot of future value.

I meant to pick the bucs like I usually do week 1 but forgot

go lions

UltimaterializerX posted...

Sometimes you get the year where like, the Saints had no qb against the Broncos.

Or the Rams lose at home to the Jets favored by almost 20

oh the bengals killed a lot of people huh

Speaking of big favorites, Dallas is going to be massively popular next week.

For week 2 there aren't a lot of good picks out there.

Seattle at New England feels like a potential trap with the early start time for Seattle.

glad my roots of picking the chargers will pay off , my other league I had the bengals oops .

Rusry posted...

glad my roots of picking the chargers will pay off , my other league I had the bengals oops .

Chargers are my pick next week.

Seattle should've put it away with that pick but we'll see.

(Really Seattle a 28 yard punt with an 18 yard return)

That seals it up for the Seahawks. Yay <3

Woohoo

Once it looked like Higgins was out and Chase not practicing all off-season I was getting a bad feeling about the Bengals. Glad I switched and all the other teams I was considering won too so hey. Onto Week 2!

Nice, dead week 1.

At least it won't be week 2 this year now~

Uh

49ers

So far, we have 75 participants with only 42 still remaining prior to Jets/49ers.

As a reminder, once MNF kicks off, nobody can enter the contest for the remainder of the season, so anyone who has yet to post a pick has just over 12 hours to do so.

Bengals are always slow starters even without Burrow coming of injury and Chase holding out and all the other crap they went through this year but it's still pretty embarrassing that they lost!

KCF0107 posted...

So far, we have 75 participants with only 42 still remaining prior to Jets/49ers.

Therefore, if the Jets win, over half of the contestants will have lost in week 1.

MZero posted...

Bengals are always slow starters even without Burrow coming of injury and Chase holding out and all the other crap they went through this year but it's still pretty embarrassing that they lost!

Burrow is 1-8 when starting weeks 1 and 2 in his career. This was entirely foreseeable.

Just over four hours until the final game of Week 1 kicks off

Just over one hour remains before picks are locked and thus our participants for this season are finalized.

Now I have to decide if cmc being out means I want to switch to Jets.

Nah, still picking 49ers.

Meow1000 posted...

Burrow is 1-8 when starting weeks 1 and 2 in his career. This was entirely foreseeable.

hence why I stayed away!

My rule with survivor in recent years is to take the biggest lock in week 1 (in this case, the 49ers) because you really don't fully know what to expect in week one and only go bolder afterwards, once you've seen the teams at real speed. Preseason doesn't mean a thing and it never will. My week 1 exits have all come on picking niche teams that simply weren't as good as we thought.

It's picking the niche teams we don't quite know yet early on that always end up biting me.

That's what I did. I had enough worry that the Jets might actually live up to the hype that I thought the Bengals beating the tanking Patriots was more likely.

Jets are a .500 team hyping themselves up as a Super Bowl contender going against an actual Super Bowl contender on the road in week 1.

Teams in the Jets' position get smacked in this matchup the vast majority of the time.

Oh, I didn't think they were actually good, I was just wary of the small chance that they were actually good. Basically "They're overhyped, but what if the hype is real?" Enough to scare me off them and put me on the Bengals.

Wow I survived on a Scorigami, it's beautiful

I was worried about a 49ers Super Bowl hangover, plus the Aiyuk drama and McCaffrey injury