Board 8 > Stock Topic 37

(+) Yeah! (+)

Nanis23 posted...

random Internet users

Always verify random internet users info

There is more misinformation than real information out there. Hedge funds pay people to spread lies about their targets.

Don't believe Ondore's lies!

So updates on the case

Restraining order was dissolved. I know this 100%.

What I am pretty sure is also true but need to find the full document to verify (wasn't live streamed later days because of idiots turning it into a twitch chat)

- Lisa Ted Erik Noble and some other dude rehired as they were removed during invalid board meetings.
- 14 day ban on firing anyone
- 14 day ban on any board meetings without everyone present
- Another hearing in 14 days to discuss judge orders to remove Colucci and others if necessary and/or undo their actions/make them pay Vinco

I believe with the four rehires they can just punt Colucci with the in company methods but yeah. It's definitely going a good way but I think the sell-off is because MM know they can stall a bit more. Still a very great week and I was able to recoup a lot of losses because I had a lot of 1c for today that I sold around 1.60 at 500% profits. (Should have sold all but oh well)

The WSB people blaming Ryan Cohen for selling are ridiculous. He took a large position in BBBY around $15, made some noise to push the board to start a turnaround strategy, and sold at a large profit a few months later. He never said anything about a squeeze and has no obligation to hold stocks so that WSB people can make money at his expense.

red_sox_777 posted...

The WSB people blaming Ryan Cohen for selling are ridiculous

Yeah it's dumb. Millionairs are not your friends. In fact there is zero loyality in the stock market in general. No amount of "HODL", "Diamond Hands", "Apes together strong" posts will prevent someone from selling if he believe the stock reached it's peak.

What I found weird though is that I feel like he sold too early. BBBY started to make noise everywhere and it felt like GME before it exploded stupid
There was still a huge upside to this
Imo it could have reached 50 if he didn't sell

Here's the actual story

Restraining order dissolved
Colucci and Lisa King Co ceos
Third Ceo the former secretary of state of Nevada as a temporary third Ceo to mediate disagreements in the best interest of the company. Amazing.

New hearing the 31st for the judge to try and untangle which decisions by Colucci were straight sabotage or not.

This is some penny stock shit. I feel like I'm playing blur custodianship plays but it's like a legitimate company here. It's frustrating. But I think it'll work out.

On the plus side I accumulated 1500 free shares this week and 30 free amc puts for next week (10.5)

AMC didn't do what I thought it'd do so I sold most of my AMC puts at $0.10 to make a small profit on them. Two hundred bucks is two hundred bucks.

Tank is imminent now I'm sure but eh.

Got out of BBIG last week while the getting was good after deliberating potential roadmaps. I don't think the squeeze potential is there anymore. And the answer to "how does Ted make the most money from all this?" is also the path of max pain for retail- merger stalls more, Zash buys adrizer, let's BBIG go bankrupt, and goes public via a SPAC. That updated valuation is still on the table but the odds of going to zero are rising. So back to stacking btc and eth for me.

frankftw posted...

Got out of BBIG last week while the getting was good after deliberating potential roadmaps. I don't think the squeeze potential is there anymore. And the answer to "how does Ted make the most money from all this?" is also the path of max pain for retail- merger stalls more, Zash buys adrizer, let's BBIG go bankrupt, and goes public via a SPAC. That updated valuation is still on the table but the odds of going to zero are rising. So back to stacking btc and eth for me.

same, it's time to move on for me. this was a very atypical stock for me.

Squeeze potential is absolutely still there. Bankruptcy risk doesn't remove that. I actually agree that the bankruptcy risk is higher than I thought going in because of how much nonsense is going on with the management but yeah.

The big thing we're at risk for here is dilution to let covering take place. No dilution means the squeeze happens. Ted would much rather have a squeezed stock to start to raise money from than doing another SPAC, and Lisa King has a bunch of options and pay incentives for the price to be high.

But I'm not going to try and sell anyone on the stock at this point. My feelings about the manipulation behind the stock were proven right but right to a level even I didn't want.

I'm just going to keep selling puts on it. Great price for those.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/wy5424/the_wsb_trash_bin_discussion_thread_for_the_week/

What a display

I wonder if this will help it run this week. There's also another court hearing Wednesday to try and sort more stuff out. They got a subpoena for AI Pros crap so those fraudsters should be out of the picture soon gotta figure and once they're out Colucci looks even worse.

Fun fun fun fun fun

Bed Bath and Beyond CFO jumped off a building this weekend

I guess it could be worse for BBIG, at least hedge funds aren't sending out assassins to kill our company execs yet LOL

Good time to sell some puts on BBBY this coming week I bet

Another inflation report and another deep red day.

I wouldn't mind if today became a circuit breaker day. I kind of feel we need the raw panic associated with that to reach bottom in this bear market. But we never seem to get close to -7% on the S&P in a day; we just see a lot of these down 3% days.

Eyeing INTC now that 2025 LEAPS are out. 35c looks really good. Might grab some. Will definitely grab some if we see the old circuit breaker day.

Reason being Intel is amping up their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and 2024 they should be operational as I understand it. So 2025 is the LEAP you want.

I also think the market in general recovers a lot so it's double dipping.

Boring

The root of the conflict at BBIG has been Colucci (corrupt board member who made himself CEO through likely illegal means) and Philip Jones (corrupt CFO who has been trying to embezzle company funds by paying it into companies providing no value to BBIG (AIPros which appears to be a shell company that does nothing-- claims it does the same kind of stuff AdRizer was doing but it was revealed they were just trying to steal AdRizer trade secrets, and IHeartRadio which Colucci's wife works at-- probably not actually going to IHeartRadio)

BBIG developments in the past few weeks

• AI Pros payments of 5 million rescinded
• Philip Jones was found to be responsible for BBIG not negotiating their loan payment and forcing the company to pay 30 million (for stock price in the mid term I thought that was bullish, but for company health in the short term that wasn't ideal) as he did not respond to lenders nor former CEO Lisa King to get signatures to extend the loan. Amusingly some sleuthing (ie facebook stalking of his wife's facebook) found he was "on a family fishing trip" with his wife at the time
• Philip Jones stepped down as CFO due to a negotiation directly with Ted and Lisa's legal teams and replaced with Ken Slack, the CFO of Zash. This is HUGE as this was the main guy who was helping Colucci screw the company over, and the fact that he did this without consulting Colucci gives a real "time to get out of dodge" feel.
• "Special master" hearing scheduled for today designed to expedite the court proceedings a bit.

Super bullish on the Philip Jones step down-- to me that feels like the court may be winding down and it's becoming increasingly obvious that this is unwinnable. I really do think Q2/Q3 earnings are going to be great and this legal dispute being positioned just before Q2 earnings was not a coincidence. I think Philip Jones

Right now the objectives are:

Get Colucci out
Get Independent Board members in
Get earnings
Get merger

I believe the resolution of the court case will accomplish the first two items, and the merger/earnings will occur shortly after the court case.

Bear case is of course that the court case stalls long enough that the company has Nasdaq compliance issues, but the judge seems to be prioritizing moving things along quickly first and foremost so it's hard to imagine this lasting much longer. I do not think bankruptcy is a real risk here-- Zash has solid financials and this ticker will be a gold mine for them if they get that merger so I think they'll keep BBIG afloat-- I also think BBIG's financial situation is being exaggerated by Colucci to help generate FUD as there is a short hedge fund in a bad place here that has connections with Colucci and some other guy on the board whose name I forget as per the whistleblower testimony from Eric Noble

I've been positioning any calls with longer durations and have been going harder on shares, so I'm pretty ok with waiting this out. Every month I accumulate more.

I do also have some Intel 2025 30c. Hard to not see that being an easy 5 bagger+ when the stock market stabilizes and Intel's chip manufacturing kicks up in 2024

Got a little bit of eyes on AMC. I think if it drops to the 6-7 range that calls for 10ish 3 months out will print hard. That seems to be the pattern-- they walk it down then it runs a bit then they walk it down again. AMC has some tricks it can do with the APE dividend as it relates to issuing further dividends which can force covering if done right-- APE being baked into options contracts through 2024 at a 1:1 ratio means AMC would squeeze with it if it ran.

Hearing from someone at the court case on Twitter that a settlement was reached today for BBIG. Spike AH as well. Looks Colucci, Goldstein & Distasio out! That combined with the resignation of Philip Jones means all the toxic elements are out.

If Colucci is out earnings + merger should be on deck in a hurry

If anyone wants back in this is probably last time we're around $1

I mean who knows with this market but I'm feeling a huge gap up this weekend. This court resolution could not have gone better-- literally all the corrupt elements out.

No gap up means I get to load up more at these prices that's cool with me.

Need this year to end

So apparently October is usually a strong bullish month. But we also had 3 crashes for the ages in October in 1929, 1987, and 2008.

I feel like they're going to go for it and push the crash. People like patterns. I'm going to buy some PUTS on Spy next week that expire Nov 4.

Third year in a row since I've been actively investing that September has crashed and I always tell myself sell at the end of August and never do...

I am actually feeling pretty good about this market. Feels like there's a lot of bargains and sentiment is so negative. I still think we might need a legit circuit breaker day to hit bottom. But once we do, we'll have a lot of room to run upwards.

The scenario that no one seems to be talking about is a regular, garden variety bear market - which we haven't had since the late 80s. We've become used to this world of long bull markets punctuated by deep crashes. Given the volume of people talking about 2008 part 2 I feel like the market may surprise us with a mild bear market instead of total meltdown.

Also I don't see high inflation lasting that much longer given how strong the dollar is relative to other currencies. The dollar is absolutely crushing JPY, CNY, EUR, and GBP right now. When the dollar rises relative to currencies in countries that manufacture things, the cost to produce things in dollars goes down - and that will eventually be reflected in prices.

I don't think enough people are selling to enter a true bear market. By and large prices are decreasing due to increased short interest across the board.

The thesis is rate hikes will cause retail to sell because they need to pay their creditors more. But if they aren't selling the play isn't sustainable for a super long term and market forces know this.

So I'm thinking one of two things happen

1. Enough retail sells expecting a crash hoping to buy back in. Crash doesn't happen, market moons.
2. Retail holds, crash is forced to try and flush people out. We recover hard after the crash because the crash is driven largely by unsustainable shorting.

I think the play is to have money in the game right now and protect yourself with a few way out of the money puts. Keep margin as low as you can.

I don't think retail has nearly that much effect on the market outside of a few stocks with exceptionally high retail interest.

I'm not saying retail is outright driving the market as much as retail investment is on the uptick and inorganic price movement being used to shake out retail makes more sense than it being institutions and hedge funds fighting amongst themselves.

Like brokerages such as robinhood and webull sell their data. If they give intel that a bunch of retail has sold expecting a market crash no doubt in my mind the market starts running.

So the question remains what is happening now

We had a LOT of doomsaying about Credit Suisse and Duesche Bank potentially defaulting and potentially collapsing the financial system this weekend. I'm not going to say that was outright FUD but it could have caused people to act in a certain way.

Did that cause enough retail into selling early yesterday that the market is now running OR is the market being pumped to try and trap people for the dump. It's impossible to know. I'm inclined to think it's the former? I think there was a lot more noise about it on certain financial circles of Twitter with higher density of the types of people that are "the enemy" and less everywhere else

I think now is the time to buy as long as you don't do it on margin. You could wait for a flash 2008 style dump but if it doesn't happen you're going to be kicking yourself because the market is probably well over half the way down from where it should be right now.

It doesn't have to be retail that capitulates to end the bear market. Could be funds and institutions. More likely to be them actually because they have more money in the game.

There has been a lot of gloom and crash talk, and it likely has been accompanied by actual selling by funds and institutions. If the people doing that are out, then we can rally.

Dunno if this is the actual bottom we've just crossed or another bear market rally that'll get chopped down soon, but I think valuations are pretty good for a lot of stuff either way.

I don't think most of the movement has been selling is the thing

If it's driven primarily by legitimate selling short interest and dark pool utilization shouldn't go up as much. I do agree that a hedge fund or institution capitulating would cause the market to recover but if you go in terms of what the target of the attack on the market is (based on available data and what stocks are going down more), retail seems more likely. I suppose retail could be the target and a hedge fund capitulating as collateral damage could be possible though.

Elon is moving forward with buying Twitter

Stock was halted

Retail historically is prone to getting shaken out of bear markets. Reportedly retail has just been buying on net every day of this bear market though. Human psychology doesn't change but access to information does change - now all the market history is on the internet.

Right. That's what I'm saying. They're the most likely target due to history.

But it's also clear that what is being tried isn't working.

That doesn't mean that whoever is trying to shake the tree acknowledges retail is learning, though.

Menji posted...

Elon is moving forward with buying Twitter

Stock was halted

Fuck this deal and everything surround it
Deals like this should only become public when they are final

Nanis23 posted...

Fuck this deal and everything surround it
Deals like this should only become public when they are final

I mean you don't have to buy it just because it's in the news.

So some hedge funds (with at least some short activity) have been reporting very good returns for 2022 YTD. Lopen, so I think another possibility is that these funds simply take their profits and switch to the bull side of the market. There is no need to try to time the very bottom of the market and it is risky to do so.

I have been saying buy here yeah. I think we're close. It's whether the funds try to flush or don't. Do think they flip bull very soon either way.

Looking more likely we're going for the fake out and flush. What a scam this stock market, lol.

The turn will probably come the same month that the Fed raises rates less. I would expect the market to move slightly before the Fed does.

I think it happens October or November

It's about interaction with 2025 LEAPS and the feasibility of sustaining short positions for pressure more than the actual news. The question is only about whether we flush or go up without flush.

Advanced Money Destroyer

Can someone please explain to me as simple as possible who determines the bond yield index?
Because if the stock market is affected by it directly, how can we know it's not being manipulated? Who determines it?

Talking about this
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Nanis23 posted...

Can someone please explain to me as simple as possible who determines the bond yield index?
Because if the stock market is affected by it directly, how can we know it's not being manipulated? Who determines it?

Talking about this
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Bond yields are determined by bond prices. Bonds pay a fixed interest rate which is set when the bond is issued. If the market price of the bond goes up, then the yield a new buyer would get would be lower than the face interest rate (because the new buyer is getting the same return on more principal). If the market price of the bond goes down, then the yield a new buyer would get would go up (since the new buyer is getting the same return on less principal).

For example, suppose ABC Corp issues a $100 bond paying 5% interest. So if you hold the bond, you collected $5 per year. Then the Fed hikes interest rates so that you can lend money to the government at 5%. ABC won't be able to issue new bonds at 5% anymore because potential investors would rather lend to the government for the same interest and lower risk, so they have to offer new investors more interest - so perhaps the new bonds pay 10% interest.

Now what happens to the existing 5% bonds? Well, would you rather buy an ABC bond paying 10% or 5%? Obviously 10%, so the market price of the 5% bonds has to go down until the yields are roughly the same. In this case, that would imply the price of the 5% bonds should fall 50%.

Now, the above calculation assumes the bond will never mature - assuming the principal will eventually be returned, the decline of the price of the 5% bonds will not be that drastic. But the longer it will take for the principal to be returned, the bigger a drop in the price you would expect, with the full 50% happening in the case of a forever bond with interest-only payments forever and no maturity (I saw recently that a Dutch water board actually issued bonds like this back in the 1600s which are still paying interest today!).

And how it affects stocks is - would you rather invest in ABC bonds or stock? The market will price these things at a value such that the market as a whole is indifferent between them. So if the yield in the bond then doubles, the bond appears to be offering a much better value than the stock now. Unless the stock also craters in price - then it can also now offer a better value.

So the Fed raising interest rates has a very real and crushing effect on prices the world over. That is what they are trying to do to beat inflation. That is what they did do, in the other direction, with the massive quantitative easing and zero rates in 2020 and 2021. But I think the experience there is that Fed policies hit the prices of investments long before they hit consumer prices.

I also think the market overreacts to the interest rates in the sense that some people are treating the higher interest rates as permanent. The zero interest rates didn't last forever and in all likelihood, neither will the 4-5% interest rates we appear to be headed towards.