LogFAQs > #968408701

I don't think enough people are selling to enter a true bear market. By and large prices are decreasing due to increased short interest across the board.

The thesis is rate hikes will cause retail to sell because they need to pay their creditors more. But if they aren't selling the play isn't sustainable for a super long term and market forces know this.

So I'm thinking one of two things happen

1. Enough retail sells expecting a crash hoping to buy back in. Crash doesn't happen, market moons.
2. Retail holds, crash is forced to try and flush people out. We recover hard after the crash because the crash is driven largely by unsustainable shorting.

I think the play is to have money in the game right now and protect yourself with a few way out of the money puts. Keep margin as low as you can.