Board 8 > Stock Topic 37

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Moonroof
05/18/22 12:49:37 PM
#1:


Bear market seems to be full press. How long will it last?
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RikkuAlmighty
05/18/22 12:53:56 PM
#2:


So time to buy a bunch of Target right?

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Lopen
05/18/22 1:06:28 PM
#3:


I wouldn't buy Target yet. Still got a lot of room to fall from here in this market imo

I'd buy hard at $100.

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Lopen
05/18/22 1:08:34 PM
#4:


So let's go into market cap math

A company with a market cap of ~600 million is spinning off a company of value 300 million
The company with 600 million cap is giving you shares at a 10:1 ratio.

This is determined to be the fair ratio of the two companies. If market caps were accurate you'd be looking at 2:1.

BBIG to $16ish based just on that seems very likely-- that seems like where the true value of the company actually is based entirely on market caps. There are other metrics such as off balance volume (buys currently not matched by sells which shows that BBIG currently has several billion dollars worth in buy orders that aren't matched by sell orders) that put it in that range too.

But keep thinking it'll stay at $3 and I'm gonna lose all my money. I'll have the last laugh!

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Moonroof
05/18/22 1:13:39 PM
#5:


I hope it goes up for you. Youve been eyeing it for a while.
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Lopen
05/18/22 1:16:12 PM
#6:


I just wish I had more discipline

If I had been waiting to average down I'd have like 3x my current position. I'm very happy with what I have but yeah, discipline is important in buying as well as selling I'm finding

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Moonroof
05/18/22 1:18:44 PM
#7:


So the current thought is you could get TYDE dividends if you buy through 5/27, on top of believing BBIG will be around $16 at that time?
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Lopen
05/18/22 1:23:59 PM
#8:


I don't know what BBIG will be at-- when you've got a stock this manipulated it could be held for a while. When you've got a stock this manipulated it could also end up far above $16. It's all about what happens with the margin calls and option chains, and just how many short sales are naked is a huge thing too (even though RedSox denies they exist, I have been following the price action and other data on this ticker long enough that I know it's there)

This is just my thinking of what makes sense as a fair price based on market caps. You will seemingly get Tyde if you buy now and hold through 5/27. Record date T+2 does not seem to be a thing with this type of dividend.

I'm not sure whether you get them if you buy tomorrow. You could (and should) probably call your broker if you really wanted to know. I also wouldn't want to buy BBIG and flip before 5/31 because I have no idea what happens with the dividend in that case.

Buying Monday and holding was the play in any case if you wanted in. That's just where it was safe. You do it now or later you have to untie the mystery and I don't want to bother with that personally.

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Lopen
05/18/22 1:26:25 PM
#9:


E-Trade doesn't currently allow me to trade TydeV nor does it show the price, but it does show that the ticker exists. I think I'll have the TydeV shares tomorrow? I don't know. Some brokerages are clearly allowing trades of TydeV already, which is confusing.

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Lopen
05/18/22 1:29:42 PM
#10:


In any case if you're considering getting in now please call Vanguard or whoever your broker was and know exactly how they're handling the dividend. I do not want you to play it in such a way where you think you're getting Tyde and then you don't get Tyde, or worse some sorta weird bookkeeping thing where you somehow end up owing Tyde if you sell early.

It's all very muddy due to TydeV, BBIG, and BBIGV, and I'm pretty sure it's broker dependent too which makes things even worse.

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Lopen
05/18/22 1:34:22 PM
#11:


Keep in mind TydeV is seemingly moving around due to extremely small volumes. Seems like it's largely untradeable at the moment-- which makes sense as it really shouldn't be.

$25 likely isn't a price with very much insight to give. It going far below its starting price of $15 (functionally a 50% dividend at these prices) seems unlikely too though.

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Lopen
05/18/22 1:39:35 PM
#12:


My main concern on my part is lots of my holding of BBIG is in calls

I do not currently know what happens to those calls. I believe they'll become for 100 BBIG + 10 Tyde-- I was in options for the Pfizer/Viatris spinoff and that's what happened there but yeah it's just really confusing. Hopefully I'll actually start seeing TydeV for my shares in my brokerage to get a hint of what the options do.

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Moonroof
05/18/22 1:48:53 PM
#13:


Im playing it safe. Good luck to all who have it though.
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Lopen
05/18/22 1:55:10 PM
#14:


It's probably the better move for you. I think this is free money but it's only free because I've spent 8 months digging in and was in before Monday. For me this is just watching the battle play out at this point and trying to determine when and how much to cash out when it starts going up.

There is going to be a ton of psychology here at work. I think it's basically impossible for it to go down overall from here but flash dump to $2.50 to flush people out wouldn't be completely unheard of and I'd hate for someone to lose their Tyde because of that. No matter what I say you can't trust it as though you've looked into it yourself, and as someone who hasn't done the dd, it is a very risky play. I mean even if I think it gets to $16, there's nothing saying it can't just stay below $3.50 through May 27th then margin calls start hitting due to owed Tyde and THEN it goes to $16 say weeks into June. I expect it'll be a gradual rise with uneven pacing-- huge pumps and dumps all the way up, but I really have no idea on the when-- just that I expect by July we'll have rooted it all out and that's why I have hundreds of calls in July.

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Lopen
05/18/22 2:01:53 PM
#15:


The fact that we're up 10% when the market is completely hemorrhaging is very encouraging to me though. I really feel there is no way to stop the stock from going up at this point and it going up 10% on a blood red day reaffirms that for me. Can't wait for the hundreds of millions of volume days to come in.

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HOTJaVaLaVa
05/18/22 2:12:52 PM
#16:


I'm going to wait for Target to keep dropping and then get it at the end of the day. It's something that I'd hold onto for a nice long while.

But really, this market is nuts as there are so many buy low candidates out there for consideration.

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greengravy294
05/18/22 3:57:03 PM
#17:


Plow town

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Lopen
05/18/22 4:06:56 PM
#18:


10% dump in 1 minute in AH

You're right red sox there is no manipulation of this stock. People are just selling because they've spontaneously become convinced that Tyde is not a good dividend to get

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HeroicCrono
05/18/22 4:11:56 PM
#19:


For the record I never said I think definitively that there's no shenanigans. I just haven't seen convincing evidence that there is, or maybe more importantly, that the outcome will be a big surge. You could be right and you will make a lot of money if you are.

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Lopen
05/18/22 4:13:25 PM
#20:


It's extremely easy to not see evidence of manipulation if you're not actually following a stock.

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red sox 777
05/18/22 4:37:37 PM
#21:


That's why the general guideline is don't invest (long or short) in things you don't know a lot about. But Lopen, there's no need to convince me - if you are right, the market will prove it within a few months.

Note that even if BBIG collapses to below $1 and doesn't recover, I would at that point still hold out the possibility that you were basically right and got unlucky. In which case the problem would be allocating too much to this one position rather than the position itself being a bad idea. If it surges to $16+ I am not going to be calling you just lucky. If it goes to like $7 and you don't sell anything and then it plunges back down...... well I can imagine this timeline happening but not sure what to make of it.

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Lopen
05/18/22 4:39:30 PM
#22:


My defined exit points are at $7, $10, and $30 currently. I have portions ready to cut loose at each

$30 nets me around $600k. $10 gets me around $100k. $7 breaks me even (so about $30k)

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Lopen
05/18/22 4:42:07 PM
#23:


Anyway the day to day isn't bugging me. I just thought I'd point out the most blatant after hours stop loss raid I've seen in... maybe ever.

May 27th and July 15th are the two days I'm eyeing. How the first goes gives us a hint of how the second will go.

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red sox 777
05/18/22 4:46:38 PM
#24:


I mean BBIG is so volatile that having a stop loss feels like almost a guaranteed loss. I remember Moonroof set a stop loss on GME and got stopped out in about 5 minutes.

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Lopen
05/18/22 4:47:12 PM
#25:


The reason I picked $7 for my first breakpoint is to me that seems like the most bearish case you can get for the price.

It ran up to $12 last September on speculation of what's currently happening now. I put that as the bare minimum floor of what it would reach-- however that was a BBIG with about 50% less shares than there are currently, so $7ish is about the same SP.

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red sox 777
05/18/22 4:52:09 PM
#26:


Lopen posted...
The reason I picked $7 for my first breakpoint is to me that seems like the most bearish case you can get for the price.

It ran up to $12 last September on speculation of what's currently happening now. I put that as the bare minimum floor of what it would reach-- however that was a BBIG with about 50% less shares than there are currently, so $7ish is about the same SP.

So the thing I'd be careful about here is that the market in general has fallen off dramatically, especially for companies fitting Tyde's profile. Coinbase is down nearly 80% since last September and smaller companies usually get hit worse in these kinds of market crashes. If Tyde was trading on an exchange, it would probably down at least that much since September.

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Lopen
05/18/22 4:57:22 PM
#27:


I'm choosing to ignore market conditions for guessing value on a highly manipulated stock. Lower market liquidity and such could actually play to its advantage. We shall see if that is a problem, but if it doesn't get to $7 I'll just accept being wrong on this one. I think $70 is more likely than failing to get to $7 at this juncture. Lot of reasons for that, but time will tell.

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Lopen
05/18/22 7:55:12 PM
#28:


Okay

So looks official. Many many sources across twitter, stocktwits, and bbig reddit saying they verified with brokers-- apparently Nasdaq overruled the old record date. Not sure why BBIG hasn't put out a PR clarifying any of this.

Record Date is 5/27, not today. Tyde will be received June 2nd. Not sure what BBIGV and TydeV are about exactly but I think they can currently only be traded OTC?

It's more or less what I was expecting-- just with less confusing mechanics. Shorts still need to cover by 5/27. 5/27 and 6/4 should see some great movement-- who knows about this week, but I suspect the huge open interest on options are going to be pushed into for some covering. We're at 350 CTB right now so I don't expect it can stay suppressed through Friday.

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greengravy294
05/18/22 9:38:21 PM
#29:


Hello delays My Old Friend

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Lopen
05/19/22 12:07:55 AM
#30:


It's not really a delay. The Tyde distribution happens at the same time it's just the record date is different than what was speculated.

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Lopen
05/19/22 9:39:12 AM
#31:


Ortex showing cost to borrow over 1000% for BBIG. Never seen it that high. Lenders want their Tyde.

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Moonroof
05/23/22 12:26:19 PM
#32:


GS doing very well today. I should be safe this week ($275 put).
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Nanis23
05/24/22 12:24:45 AM
#33:


Fucking Snapchat

Are people really even using it those daya?

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greengravy294
05/25/22 12:08:49 PM
#34:


Yeah dude

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Moonroof
05/25/22 12:15:28 PM
#35:


Snap having a rebound.
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Moonroof
05/25/22 5:30:57 PM
#36:


https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/05/25/2450809/0/en/Vinco-Ventures-Inc-Delays-Cryptyde-Spin-off-Distribution-Date.html

BBIG down 14%
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Moonroof
05/25/22 5:52:06 PM
#37:


@Lopen what do you make of this?
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Lopen
05/25/22 6:08:57 PM
#38:


I have no idea what it means

The ex and record date don't seem to have changed so I'm not sure what it does as it relates to shorts covering. They may have to cover by Friday as I said. But it's possible that those dates changing is implied.

I honestly think we may moon on Friday anyway because this is a great time to cover with a bunch of retail likely selling.

Great time to buy the dip I think. Only really scary for weekly options. Most of my options are dated July or later so only slightly worried (end of Q2 is June 30). I do have like 80 options expiring Friday that were got on the cheap, so they may burn. I'm not selling any though.

Basically it's impossible to know what it means. I do not like the company for doing this, however. It feels like a scheme working with hedge funds to scare retail off. That being said I don't invest in companies that I like necessarily and it's still super undervalued-- it just means I'm going to make less of a point to convert calls to share and maximize profit taking going forward.

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Lopen
05/25/22 6:16:22 PM
#39:


Like the stock tanking 20% off of that news is a massive overreaction.

At worst it's delayed till end of June. No one with shares should be remotely concerned. The paperwork, filings, etc they are all in place, the tickers are showing up on brokerages. I do kinda think covering needs to occur by Friday. I would need to dig to be sure.

In any case now we may see something more typical to the Overstock run-up, with gradual increases until distribution. I was always super confused why there was a gambit to mass cover Friday.

Of course, we could just get mass covering Friday too. The more I think about it the more I think that's going to happen. Stocks never run up when you expect them to.

I'd def buy the dip if I had any money to buy shares right now. As it is I sold some shares (at around $2.60 when the news was fresh) because I needed some cash but yeah.

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Lopen
05/25/22 9:29:25 PM
#40:


Sleuthing in the 8-k filing today finds that the s-1 to register Tyde shares has not been declared effective by the SEC is the cause of the delay.

So there are few theories why this might be

The big thing that could cause a delay is that the share count from the record date to distribution doesn't have numbers that are lining up. Aka naked shorting. Otherwise there is nothing in there that should cause a delay-- that's why the SEC allows the distribution date to be set before the S-1 is made effective, because that is a very routine thing to approve under normal conditions.

The PR implied the board of directors made this decision but I think they would eat major fines if they proceeded, or something? It says "due to regulatory and contractual conditions"

I dunno. The whole situation is very strange. I think (hope) the SEC will actually enforce FTDs and their ineffectual threshold list and iron this out in the next month. If that was indeed the cause. It's possible it may start running. If closing naked shorts runs the price that causes margin calls which runs the price more.

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Moonroof
05/26/22 10:25:29 AM
#41:


This has been a green week overall, the first in many. @red_sox_777 , what are you in?
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red sox 777
05/26/22 10:38:06 AM
#42:


Moonroof posted...
This has been a green week overall, the first in many. @red_sox_777 , what are you in?

Currently in:

ZM
UBER
MP
ASTS

I was pretty close to buying BBBY 2 days ago but now it's up like 15% since then so I guess I missed the boat.

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Lopen
05/26/22 10:51:03 AM
#43:


BBBY is an excellent play. You should sell everything you own and put it all in BBBY. No doubt in my mind it triples by 2024

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Moonroof
05/26/22 11:15:50 AM
#44:


This has been a particularly good week for retail. Im only in GS via puts trying to play it safe lately.
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red sox 777
05/27/22 1:39:07 PM
#45:


Yeah, this week has been pretty good. Hopefully it's the start of the next bull market.

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Moonroof
05/27/22 4:57:16 PM
#46:


Im still doing weekly GS puts. I dont care.
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Lopen
05/31/22 9:48:22 AM
#47:


Bull market starts June 3rd when the executive order involving Chinese companies as collateral comes back into play and we get some margin calls. Should be a good month.

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Moonroof
05/31/22 10:58:51 AM
#48:


Fingers crossed.
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Lopen
05/31/22 11:01:04 AM
#49:


I've got me some FUBO calls lined up. With bull market incoming I need to start diversifying from BBIG which is either gonna print this month or not. Don't want it to not pay off and everything have started running and be left with nothing. I'm at the point where if BBIG pans out I'm sitting pretty so it's time to start diversifying a little bit.

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Moonroof
06/05/22 1:03:53 PM
#50:


Lets see if the market turns green yet.
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