Poll of the Day > Real talk, how likely do you think at least one nuke going off is?

(+) Yeah! (+)

With Russia and everyone else escalating everything now, what is your honest thoughts?

For me, personally I would put it 35%.

Definitely 50%

it either does or it doesnt

MICHALECOLE posted...

Definitely 50%

it either does or it doesnt

Public school graduate from Alabama I take it?

0%

hypnox posted...

Public school graduate from Alabama I take it?

Lmao I didnt graduate, idiot

0.01%

5%, I could only see russia doing that if they were pushed back into their territory.

MICHALECOLE posted...

Lmao I didnt graduate, idiot

Lmfao

If one goes off, it'll be Putin bombing his own country and blaming it on Ukraine. Even though Ukraine gave up their nukes and is a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Cacciato posted...

Lmfao

Youre not allowed to call people idiots, even if it clearly is a tongue in cheek joke

hypnox posted...

Public school graduate from Alabama I take it?

Based on this post I would assume the same about you

MICHALECOLE posted...

Definitely 50%

it either does or it doesnt

not sure why people aren't taking your post seriously. this is how probability works

Low but non-zero. Really depends on how crazy/desperate putin is.

PMarth2002 posted...

Low but non-zero. Really depends on how crazy/desperate putin is.

0.0124579%

0%

Muscles posted...

Based on this post I would assume the same about you

hypnox can't take a good joke to save his life.

they don't let the senile man hold the "button" so not at all likely

MICHALECOLE posted...

Definitely 50%

it either does or it doesnt

Just like the lottery

With the current state of the global economy, it's highly unlikely.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/8/4/3/AAQwHjAAC_2z.jpg

captpackrat posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/8/4/3/AAQwHjAAC_2z.jpg

I'm absolutely terrified.

If an ICBM is heading your way, the size
and composition of your portfolio becomes irrelevant.

lmfao

None unless Putin plans to murder his own troops while they supposedly 'liberate' Ukraine. After all his military has taken over at least one nuclear power plant and are in the blast radius should that plant explode, which wouldn't endear him to the Russian military or his supporters.

PMarth2002 posted...

Low but non-zero. Really depends on how crazy/desperate putin is.

This. About the only way I can see it happening is if Putin decides to go full scorched earth instead of accepting defeat and withdrawing sensibly, which is obviously stupid and pointless, but we can't rule out the possibility entirely because this whole war is just a vanity project for Putin and that might just be enough of an affront to his ego to prompt such a response.

FatalAccident posted...

lmfao

I like "from a purely financial perspective, you should largely ignore existential risk, even if you do care about it greatly from a personal perspective." That's both hilarious and actually pretty good advice.

That would be insane even for Putin, I seriously doubt anyone would even let that happen

To be completely honest, I am surprised that no nukes detonated whether from accident or not since the end of WW2. That's a shock to me considering these things are all over the place.

Yellow posted...

That would be insane even for Putin, I seriously doubt anyone would even let that happen

I can totes see him do it if he is on the verge of losing or if he is about to die

BUMPED2002 posted...

To be completely honest, I am surprised that no nukes detonated whether from accident or not since the end of WW2. That's a shock to me considering these things are all over the place.

https://www.atomicarchive.com/almanac/broken-arrows/index.html
There have been more than a few oopsies.

The issue with MAD is that, as much as you DON'T want to fire the nukes, you have to be WILLING to fire the nukes. Otherwise it doesn't work. Like, if you have a gun, but your opponent knows you're too much of a coward to actually use it, you may as well not have it while they rob your house and/or beat you up. What this means for Putin is that, so long as he's WILLING to use the nukes, other nations can't risk getting involved because, well, end of the world. If nukes didn't exist I suspect there'd be a lot more support for Ukraine flowing in if not open war already declared on Russia. This will also play an issue when China inevitably attacks Taiwan. If America defends Taiwan then China may as well fire off it's nukes because America might fire it's own first.

This is a fundamental problem with M.A.D. During the cold war both primary powers, as much as they hated each other, were largely content to handle things relatively diplomatically. I.E. vying for control of smaller nations instead of conquering them. Now there's a problem in that a nation with nukes can attack another nation and if a nation with nukes comes to their defense they're free to fire since the other nation might fire first. The west is largely a defensive force currently that doesn't desire to expand and is happy with the status quo. NATO's almost more of a military version of the EU at this point instead of something made to specifically counter Russia (though recent actions have shown exactly WHY it continues to exist). However the same is not true for China and Russia. China desperately wants to snuff out Taiwan and expand it's sphere of influence and Putin desires to rebuild the U.S.S.R.

As a result it comes down to a simple question of what China and Russia are actually willing to DO. The moment China attacks Taiwan or Russia does something to force NATO to act, it's basically over. However, if America backs down from Taiwan and Russia doesn't provoke NATO it's basically 0 as they'll continue to expand 'in peace'. I.E. they'll engage in massive militaristic expansions conquering the weaker nations and/or installing puppet governments, but no nukes will be involved.

Edit: I should add that, while Russia will almost certainly win the military invasion of Ukraine, it's been a massive failure in basically all other regards. Despite far more numbers and being one of the 'big' nations and what should be a far more technologically superior military it's failed to secure the decisive victory it should have been able to procure and it's also resulted in mass international condemnation and galvanized the vast majority of the world against Russia as well as shown exactly WHY NATO continues to exist. There's two primary paths forwards. Either A) Putin realizes how horrible things went, that he can't challenge NATO in a ground war, and that not even the Russian people support what's happened and cools off. Or B) Putin sees this as a 'nothing left to lose' situation and proceeds to go all-in and commits everything, including his willingness to fire nukes. He's not going to get voted out even if 100% of the vote is against him, so he's not worried about public opinion so long as they don't openly revolt (which is very unlikely).

BUMPED2002 posted...

To be completely honest, I am surprised that no nukes detonated whether from accident or not since the end of WW2. That's a shock to me considering these things are all over the place.

Well none over a population since WW2
There have been tons of test nuke detonations since then

hypnox posted...

I can totes see him do it if he is on the verge of losing or if he is about to die

He also doesn't just have physical access to a button, other people have to do what he says, and those people aren't necessarily being assassinated

Here's a question. What would it take for you to fire the nukes? Would you be willing to do it at all or would you be willing to risk it to protect allies and the like? Would you defend an ally against a nuclear power knowing full well it could trigger a nuclear war?

Edit: In case you are wondering, I would honor any alliances made prior even if it meant having to risk the nukes going off. If I am unwilling to fire and risk it, I may as well not have it. With that said, I would VERY much like to find ways to de-escalate first.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/5/5/8/AAQwHjAADAB-.jpg

Ogurisama posted...

Well none over a population since WW2
There have been tons of test nuke detonations since then

Let's go digging in North Carolina.

Depends if you mean in my pants or not.